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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #7,501
  • Nov 7, 2007 7:58pm Nov 7, 2007 7:58pm
Places like developing China will not shut down in winter... their craving for more and more oil, as well as other developing countries too, will continue to push the limits of oil... and/or oil producers will take advantage of that to keep prices up...

Please forgive me for talking so big.. I have emptied my entire brain here tonight... there is not much left... This is as much as I know on a subject so much deeper, and that you and seeking and others surely know far more about...

Quoting raczekfx
heavy winter usually means less travel..
  • #7,502
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:04pm Nov 7, 2007 8:04pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
we can't produce enough corn...
You've obviously never lived in a small town of 450 in the middle of Indiana.
Mr. Trend
  • #7,503
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:07pm Nov 7, 2007 8:07pm
Here is my basic underlying of oil and a reason why the price tends to drop a little through the duration of the winter months. Most middle class people grew up with the addage in their head, buy it when the price is lower, and most (people that have never seen a chart before) think this is in the summer time. Do you think this could be the reason why the price tends to move upwards again through the summer months; because more people buy it, thinking it is cheaper, and through doing so they are really adding to the price jackup? I'm going to look a little into the oil market and see how much is bought through each month. I think that maybe the price could drop throughout the winter because most have already bought for the winter before it comes about, other than the stragglers. If this scenario is correct, then the amount of people travelling could have a much larger affect on price than I had imagined. What are your thoughts on this?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #7,504
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:11pm Nov 7, 2007 8:11pm
You are right !! And so I am caught spouting off at the mouth... ( again ) but my cereal still gets more expensive because more and more corn has to go to ethanol...

Quoting Mr Trend
You've obviously never lived in a small town of 450 in the middle of Indiana.
  • #7,505
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:12pm Nov 7, 2007 8:12pm
The other scenario that I've been thinking about people travelling less having an impact is this: While people do travel less, these are times of holidays. Over the holidays, people travel more than any other time of the year. Wouldn't you think this would equal out the ratio of people travelling and not travelling, when compared to the summer months? If that is so, then it wouldnt have much of an impact at all on the price. It would already be priced in. This would leave us with necessity as the largest driver for oil prices.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #7,506
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:16pm Nov 7, 2007 8:16pm
I think it more has to do with someone wanting price to hit that big round number of $ 100, if even for just one little ping...

Quoting mike w
The other scenario that I've been thinking about people travelling less having an impact is this: While people do travel less, these are times of holidays. Over the holidays, people travel more than any other time of the year. Wouldn't you think this would equal out the ratio of people travelling and not travelling, when compared to the summer months? If that is so, then it wouldnt have much of an impact at all on the price. It would already be priced in. This would leave us with necessity as the largest driver for oil prices.
  • #7,507
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:24pm Nov 7, 2007 8:24pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I think it more has to do with someone wanting price to hit that big round number of $ 100, if even for just one little ping...
I think your right with that too, but think of this. The manufacturers are always going to want their product to move up in price to get the most out of it. On the other hand, you have to factor in consumers. There needs to be some kind of price stability or sacrifice at both levels. You have to think of this, though; how long can consumers stay buying oil at the prices it is going to hit. I have no doubt that it will hit 100$, but for how long before consumers say they cant buy it anymore and turn to electricity and other forms. I know, myself, that electricity is much cheaper than oil for heating my house. Over time, consumers are going to realize the same thing and then start to buy other forms of energy, such as electricity among others. This will ultimately bring the prices of oil crashing down again. Then the process will start over. People will start buying oil again, instead of other forms, and then price will move up to the point where other ways are cheaper, then price will fall again. What do you think?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #7,508
  • Nov 7, 2007 8:58pm Nov 7, 2007 8:58pm
Sounds to me like you are talking about the way a trend works... you are right... but there are trends in many time frames... and just as there is an overwhelming something or other ( don't know what exactly ) pushing EUR up, one of the things pushing oil is more and more and more people that have to get to work each day... we all will pay the price whatever it is to get to work... we will not stop going to work... I still cannot plug my car in to an electrical outlet...

And sooner or later there will be some big blow up in the middle east, or wherever...

On another topic... what do you think of the daily PB on EUR/GBP ??

Over and out for tonight... my 5 year has to go to bad, and that means I get to go night night too... finally !!!


Quoting mike w
I think your right with that too, but think of this. The manufacturers are always going to want their product to move up in price to get the most out of it. On the other hand, you have to factor in consumers. There needs to be some kind of price stability or sacrifice at both levels. You have to think of this, though; how long can consumers stay buying oil at the prices it is going to hit. I have no doubt that it will hit 100$, but for how long before consumers say they cant buy it anymore and turn to electricity and other forms. I know, myself, that electricity is much cheaper than oil for heating my house. Over time, consumers are going to realize the same thing and then start to buy other forms of energy, such as electricity among others. This will ultimately bring the prices of oil crashing down again. Then the process will start over. People will start buying oil again, instead of other forms, and then price will move up to the point where other ways are cheaper, then price will fall again. What do you think?
  • #7,509
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:02pm Nov 7, 2007 9:02pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
On another topic... what do you think of the daily PB on EUR/GBP ??
You would be trading, according to my charts, right into support. If it passes 1.6950 area, however, it would be a solid trade. This pair is extremly slow though. Bear that in mind. I normally trade this pairs weekly charts as if they are the daily charts. I dont see much stopping it from moving to the 1.6900 area if it breaks through 1.6950.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #7,510
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:06pm Nov 7, 2007 9:06pm
Well, no worries... I'm not trading anything tonight... I also see a bit of a triangle there so maybe even less pips gained if taking the trade..

Quoting mike w
You would be trading, according to my charts, right into support. If it passes 1.6950 area, however, it would be a solid trade. This pair is extremly slow though. Bear that in mind. I normally trade this pairs weekly charts as if they are the daily charts. I dont see much stopping it from moving to the 1.6900 area if it breaks through 1.6950.
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  • #7,511
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:11pm Nov 7, 2007 9:11pm
Hey.. EUR/GBP also looks maybe like a flag pole situation too... !! Maybe the last straw will be breakout UP soon... !!!

Quoting Tiki Trader
Well, no worries... I'm not trading anything tonight... I also see a bit of a triangle there so maybe even less pips gained if taking the trade..
  • #7,512
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:56pm Nov 7, 2007 9:56pm
Hi again, thanks for the information about last chart I posted.. I put a low in on my demo after your guys confirmation, and it made quite a few pips How about this pin bar on 4h gbpusd? Good indication of it going up?
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  • #7,513
  • Nov 7, 2007 9:58pm Nov 7, 2007 9:58pm
Quoting MattL4417
Hi again, thanks for the information about last chart I posted.. I put a low in on my demo after your guys confirmation, and it made quite a few pips How about this pin bar on 4h gbpusd? Good indication of it falling? It's probably not a good idea to short gbpusd but still looks like a good setup(correct me if I'm wrong)
pin bars indicated strength opposite to wear the "nose" is. So in this case it is indicating a bullish sentiment. The pinbar itself is in some consolidation making the signal less strong/clear in my view.

Best of luck
Mike
  • #7,514
  • Nov 7, 2007 10:05pm Nov 7, 2007 10:05pm
Quoting mbqb11
pin bars indicated strength opposite to wear the "nose" is. So in this case it is indicating a bullish sentiment. The pinbar itself is in some consolidation making the signal less strong/clear in my view.

Best of luck
Mike
Yeah I realized my mistake immediately after I posted so I edited, OOPS! I'm a getting a little tired... But yeah I meant to ask if it was a good indication of the price rising. Sorry about that
  • #7,515
  • Nov 8, 2007 3:48am Nov 8, 2007 3:48am
Quoting mike w
Why wouldn't anyone see bearish setups in a downtrend?
Point I tried to make was that they do after it's too late.
Going from being Bloomberg and seeing and posting it after it's done, to trading it and being a trader is the hard bit

Quote
If you take the chart that you are clearly seeing a 200-500 pip downmove, then wait until the week's end, you could quite possibly see a bearish engulfing. That would infer that there will be more downwards movement throughout the coming weeks.
Obviously. But I've found I am just not good at trading weekly and holding and hoping that long due to watching the charts too much.

Also the core is this: if you get a steep drop that's bigger than the usual daily range, those people that DO use indicators will get signals saying it went too far and start buying up again. Then you or anyone might enter during this retrace and - and this is the tricky bit and purely my fantasy - if you're unlucky there are too many stops moved down already, they plop, people keep jumping on the wagon of the retrace, it goes too far, exceeds all sensible fib levels and...PIN BAR!
And you just fed Mike and helped generate a setup that just shows direction opposite to the trade you are in.

What I mean - every overextended move will eventually snap back. That's what raczekfx has been saying about oil the last 5-6 posts
Or you forget to zoom out because you're so anxious to sell the low of the current chart that you do, clap your hands as the trade moves 20 pips, the chart scrolls and...ooops, there's that weekly TL, darn darn darn -10 -20 -50 what do I do -60 -80 oh no -100 STOPPED.
You know? Better to be in it before you've already moved too far...

You want to be in the move that generates the exaggeration, not get stomped on by the retrace generating players and have to GUESS (and imho it really is guessing, I couldn't find a good spot where I would reshort USDJPY if I had to right now) what and where to enter...not to forgot you also get insane stop sizes given the range moved.

Selling chart lows / buying highs never did me much good(exception is when it's just an addon to pre-existing trades and risk is just a mere fragment and if it goes sour then it's off your already profitable trade, not your account).

So really there are 50 reasons to me why you should be in the move before it happens and not chase setups at the top or bottom of the chart, because then it is already too late.

Quote
Instead, if you were to wait, then it could turn into a long term trade, in which you could capitalize on very easily. What do you think?

I wouldn't wait for the long term setup(I can't trade that), I would wait for a new setup after price inevitably pulls back again(come on, I just posted enough daily charts to show that this happens eventually)...this is exactly the move those people chasing after the market(and usually forgetting to use any setups at all since "hey there was this fib there and well uh..yea, that fib!") will likely be trapped and sucked into red in. Happened to me often enough at least
Also what good is a daily BEOB at the bottom of the chart turning into a weekly BEOB at the bottom of the chart? Same trouble to me..

Just writing so much about it since I've found it a very bad thing to do often enough myself.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #7,516
  • Nov 8, 2007 3:54am Nov 8, 2007 3:54am
Hey Seeking,

thanks very much for your view on my chart. I learned a lot from your posts and statements like these are why I came here in the first place. To learn from my mistakes and to improve my trading skills. I see that the inside bar would have made a nice entry but I unfortunately missed it and wanted to participate in the bear move. At least I wouldnt have entered the break of the DBHLC but I would have waited for a retracement and then enter because I feel uncomfortable entering after a several hundred pip move. I am in a small conflict because on the one hand markets can ALWAYS go higher (didnt want to enter EURUSD after 1,4000 because I thought a retracement was due / didn't enter my GBPUSD setup because I was afraid that we have reached the top) but on the other hand there often are retracements after big moves.

Cheers,
Chris
  • #7,517
  • Nov 8, 2007 4:22am Nov 8, 2007 4:22am
Quoting creeper
Hey Seeking,

thanks very much for your view on my chart. I learned a lot from your posts and statements like these are why I came here in the first place. To learn from my mistakes and to improve my trading skills.
Cheers,
Chris
Hey Chris
You're welcome.
Well I'm sure you will learn a lot, you've got the right attitude

Just wanted to say I don't want this to be viewed as solely a reply to your chart post, but I was trying to point out a general problem whenever these sort of things happen on the charts. Everyone's addressed and me first and foremost as always(as long as I make mistakes I'm still just another guy trying to learn all this properly..which will most likely be forever lol).

You're right of course with trends being able to run 1000+ pips easy. (I remember trading around 1.2xxx EURUSD last year when 1.3 was the next "really big figure", not 1.5 hehehehe)
The question to me just always is where do I/we best enter without managing to hit those 100-200+++ pips retraces that kick us out before we're even in

Wishing you lots of success and learning progress in the time ahead,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #7,518
  • Nov 8, 2007 4:29am Nov 8, 2007 4:29am
Seeking made a post in the PF, but I think the two individuals deserve the public wishes too

It is James16 and Seekinglight Birthdays today!

WISH EM A HAPPY!


  • #7,519
  • Nov 8, 2007 5:03am Nov 8, 2007 5:03am
to two of the few that I read.....happy B'day

Jarret
  • #7,520
  • Nov 8, 2007 6:35am Nov 8, 2007 6:35am
Quoting mbqb11
Seeking made a post in the PF, but I think the two individuals deserve the public wishes too

It is James16 and Seekinglight Birthdays today!

WISH EM A HAPPY!


Excellent, happy bday guys
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