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  • #521
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:07pm Nov 7, 2007 4:07pm
And here we have just what we were looking for with the Euro from our previous post. It performed just as we had expected when the Fib levels are respected.
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  • #522
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:12pm Nov 7, 2007 4:12pm
ok, ok ill answer the question on where was the GBP/Yen going this afternoon. Its all on the charts
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  • #523
  • Nov 7, 2007 4:17pm Nov 7, 2007 4:17pm
This is what fueled the GBP/Yen today, the small retracement in Cable helped a little as well. Even if both the USD/Yen and GBP/Yen both continue to fall , I dont care ....I saw the short signals and the fibs provided my exit point.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #524
  • Nov 8, 2007 7:59pm Nov 8, 2007 7:59pm
Another early sudden up move during Asia, almost an 80 pip swing. Yesterday would have given several long opportunities starting with a bounce off intraday long and several swing high breaks thereafter, but some possible shake outs too with retracements.

How did everyone do last night?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #525
  • Nov 8, 2007 8:56pm Nov 8, 2007 8:56pm
Quoting Thexder
Another early sudden up move during Asia, almost an 80 pip swing. Yesterday would have given several long opportunities starting with a bounce off intraday long and several swing high breaks thereafter, but some possible shake outs too with retracements.

How did everyone do last night?

I did very well.. took the long signal during the early US session on Cable
Did you get any of it ?
  • #526
  • Nov 8, 2007 10:22pm Nov 8, 2007 10:22pm
Standing on the sidelines watching the move and writing down what I would have likely done, I estimate I would have taken 40 to 50 out of the approximate 130 move that occurred. That would have been spanning 3 or 4 long entries with small targets for the sake of taking profit without waiting for real targets to be met. So I could have probably done better if I were seasoned enough to trust things.

My current thinking is I'm about ready to start going live (don't know when I'll actually do it, any day). I've had my mini account since July 2006 so I'm not afraid to start using it (again), I'm not jumping in totally fresh, alreayd been through the funding, losing, re-funding account thing. A few weeks ago I re-funded the account so I'd be ready to go when the time feels right, and so my idea is regardless of expected targets I will start out with very small arbitrary fixed targets and normal stops (the risk/reward police would revoke my account) but the intent is I should know when to take entries by now that have a good chance of reaching my simple targets so if I start taking too many hits, I re-assess what's going on. When I can go for a while hitting my small targets and build faith, as well as making my notes on where price really went and if the real targets would have been hit on my entries, I will begin to transition out of my training wheels and migrate to whatever seems to work as it unfolds.

Critics would say why train with real money etc, demo it and when you're ready go live with the real targets. Well I've demo'd, I've gone live, and for me real money makes real trading decisions while demo gives me a false sense of security. It's not for me at this point, and a dollar a pip is play money. I consider it my training course fee as if I had to go pay thousands to take a course. It's like psyching yourself up to do something daredevilish, you finally think you are ready, then when you get to the moment, everything changes on you again and you may consider backing out or doing things different than you prepared for. I have to do the real thing to get the real experience.

This is my 3rd or 4th time funding an account (I've had 2 different brokers, didn't like the first one) and this time I finally feel like I have a chance of surviving. That doesn't mean winning, it means lasting long enough to become a winner, or finding faults and fixing them without losing the account.

Maybe next week I"ll start. Right now it's almost time for London and I see a consolidation at the intraday high so there isn't much to take an entry from unless there is a retrace and signal. I'd be apprehensive tonight I think.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #527
  • Nov 8, 2007 11:06pm Nov 8, 2007 11:06pm
I Agree Thexder... get real experience with real trading...
just be patience, discipline, and cautious...
may the pips with you...
  • #528
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:05am Nov 9, 2007 5:05am
This is the chart leading into almost 6am EST.
The swing shown is where I had it going into London. I guess it is a subjective decision where to put swings when the activity is all spikes and not clear waves but that's where I had them because the low is a retrace of the previous up candle and the high is another up move followed by a retrace within the same candle. I guess it would look more like swings on a lower time frame.

After I placed those swings I woudln't have updated them for 5 or 6 more candles even though there were spike-swings greater than 30 pip range, because the motion of the price was showing some respect for support within the swing trade zone. I'd only refresh the swings if candles started violating the trade zone and shifting the directional bias, giving a new swing point to pull to after that, etc.

So since the candles stayed with a swing long bias, I felt confident with a swing high long entry unless things changed later in the night. I even went to sign into my account to place a pending order (which I'd monitor over the hours and cancel if the bias changed on me), but the server was down...for hours....so I didn't get to place my order and decided I'll just log the observations as training again.

Eventually the candles shot down below swing short and broke swing low but I wouldn't want to have a pending short order with intraday long too close beneath, and a general uptrend going on. Good move, it wouldn't have worked out. But by then I could have re-pulled the swing low to the bottom of those failure spikes.

Then things went up again and shifted back to long bias and finally broke the swing high for an easy T1 target. It looks like a spike up, so I zoomed in on M5 to make sure it really would have been a trade that could have been filled with proper entry and exit, and it was valid. The 1 hour spike up occurred over two 5 minute candles.

IF MY BROKER WOULD HAVE LET ME LOG IN I would have made a successful trade and I'm happy to say it isn't in retrospect. All week I've been making my decisions based on what the fib says and I've been doing so with success on paper in real time, not looking back and seeing what did happen and then fooling myself into having caught any bad choices or sure-thing entries.

Now that the move is over, my broker is letting me log in. Oh well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 57 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #529
  • Nov 9, 2007 5:49am Nov 9, 2007 5:49am
And this is why I'm all for the quick in & out profit target rather than buy and hope (hold)...I wouldn't have had any pending short orders for this 140ish move down because the bias was long even on the swing level, but I sure would have been stopped out if I were buying and holding earlier.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 66 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #530
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:02am Nov 9, 2007 6:02am
Quoting Thexder
And this is why I'm all for the quick in & out profit target rather than buy and hope (hold)...I wouldn't have had any pending short orders for this 140ish move down because the bias was long even on the swing level, but I sure would have been stopped out if I were buying and holding earlier.
Looks as if they are giving up on pushing higher for a while...and its Friday
  • #531
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:13am Nov 9, 2007 6:13am
Channel price has been following since Oct 22nd seems to be holding for now though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #532
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:20am Nov 9, 2007 6:20am
Quoting Thexder
Standing on the sidelines watching the move and writing down what I would have likely done, I estimate I would have taken 40 to 50 out of the approximate 130 move that occurred. That would have been spanning 3 or 4 long entries with small targets for the sake of taking profit without waiting for real targets to be met. So I could have probably done better if I were seasoned enough to trust things.

My current thinking is I'm about ready to start going live (don't know when I'll actually do it, any day). I've had my mini account since July 2006 so I'm not afraid to start using it (again), I'm not jumping in totally fresh, alreayd been through the funding, losing, re-funding account thing. A few weeks ago I re-funded the account so I'd be ready to go when the time feels right, and so my idea is regardless of expected targets I will start out with very small arbitrary fixed targets and normal stops (the risk/reward police would revoke my account) but the intent is I should know when to take entries by now that have a good chance of reaching my simple targets so if I start taking too many hits, I re-assess what's going on. When I can go for a while hitting my small targets and build faith, as well as making my notes on where price really went and if the real targets would have been hit on my entries, I will begin to transition out of my training wheels and migrate to whatever seems to work as it unfolds.

Critics would say why train with real money etc, demo it and when you're ready go live with the real targets. Well I've demo'd, I've gone live, and for me real money makes real trading decisions while demo gives me a false sense of security. It's not for me at this point, and a dollar a pip is play money. I consider it my training course fee as if I had to go pay thousands to take a course. It's like psyching yourself up to do something daredevilish, you finally think you are ready, then when you get to the moment, everything changes on you again and you may consider backing out or doing things different than you prepared for. I have to do the real thing to get the real experience.

This is my 3rd or 4th time funding an account (I've had 2 different brokers, didn't like the first one) and this time I finally feel like I have a chance of surviving. That doesn't mean winning, it means lasting long enough to become a winner, or finding faults and fixing them without losing the account.

Maybe next week I"ll start. Right now it's almost time for London and I see a consolidation at the intraday high so there isn't much to take an entry from unless there is a retrace and signal. I'd be apprehensive tonight I think.
Im glad your confidence is up, but if you must trade live...the amount you fund your account with must be considered lost as soon as you put in in the account, if not it will bias your decisions when trading live.
  • #533
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:39am Nov 9, 2007 6:39am
If this low holds and price does rally here, we would like to see it make it into the 2.1030/2.1070 range and give us another setup to trade out of. If this is not a retracement and the previous candles low gives way ,price will finally break from the price channel mentioned earlier..and Intraday fib shows there is room still below to 2.0933/2.0901.
If price does continue up here I wouldnt take a long position unless a candle forms above 2.1072 and I would not look past the previous highs then for a target.
Dont forget it is Friday and things have a way of turning quickly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #534
  • Nov 9, 2007 6:47am Nov 9, 2007 6:47am
I just checked the yen pairs and this is what I call a good run. I wish I would have been watching this one from my laptop !
This thing went 450 pips on a short break...unreal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_yen1109.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #535
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:21am Nov 9, 2007 7:21am
Quoting Bobokus
I just checked the yen pairs and this is what I call a good run. I wish I would have been watching this one from my laptop !
This thing went 450 pips on a short break...unreal

Yeah, it was a lot of fun.

You should send me your acct password so I can enter you in all the fun
Robonacci com
  • #536
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:29am Nov 9, 2007 7:29am
Quoting SKUNNY
Yeah, it was a lot of fun.

You should send me your acct password so I can enter you in all the fun
Remind me next time it does this and I will, that way i can sleep.
  • #537
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:31am Nov 9, 2007 8:31am
Quoting Bobokus
the amount you fund your account with must be considered lost as soon as you put in in the account
That's been my philosophy since I started with my first stock trade in December 2005. That's what I mean by play money and $1 a pip being nothing to me to risk, and the financial loss is an experience gain (training fee). I moved to forex in summer 2006 after half a year with stocks and maintained the same mentality. THere is no other way. Especially when you're inexperienced and you know people start out losing and may never recover. It's something that's accepted when entering the game.

I started looking into the whole trading thing in August 2005 with my first Amazon order of 5 or 6 technical analysis books, and bought several more over time, went through all the quick tutorials of patterns on those cheesy little web sites everywhere, tried my own methods, the usual deal.

Not once did I ever mourn a loss. When I would buy a stock and watch my stop take me out for $100 plus commission, I'd actually be excited because I'd be able to look at what happened and say something like "Oh I shouldn't have traded in the first 15minutes of the day until the market settled..I read that before...stupid me, now I know". I always learned something and that's my training cost.

So now that I feel all ready again, I've only put in my account what I can afford. It's in the several hundred dollar range each time I re-fund it, which allows enough losses to wake me up. If I threw thousands in the account I would be more vulnerable to a false safety net thinking I can stay in a bad trade because I can cover it. I'd rather have my account balance big enough to have that security as a result of having earned it legitimately.

Good to go.

Now I think I'll head to the beer store and get ready for a weekend off before I give it a shot.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #538
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:33am Nov 9, 2007 8:33am
Look where the low made it when intraday went short.
Coincidence...pure coincidence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.jpg Size: 71 KB
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #539
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:49am Nov 9, 2007 8:49am
I honestly wish you the best and hope I have givin you a little more insight into reading price movement,its almost funny now when you see it bounce around from the fib levels.
  • #540
  • Nov 9, 2007 8:57am Nov 9, 2007 8:57am
Quoting Bobokus
I honestly wish you the best and hope I have givin you a little more insight into reading price movement.
I have not only insight but a feeling of clarity, calmness, and confidence. Too much alliteration. I don't feel blindly that using these methods work on this pair or other pairs, but I feel I know how to look at it and make the judgement of whether or not it could work anywhere in the first place by looking at how things move and align. I've learned not how to follow someone's system but now to observe the action and judge how to implement it for myself. That's a sense of empowerment and the difference in assembling something from a set of instructions or designing and building it from scratch.

I don't feel that I'm just following swings and intradays around on faith, I feel that I've gotten to know this pair and how to use the levels with that. Even though other pairs have been mentioned lately I wouldn't go immediately into them myself, I know how to watch them for a while and get a feel for them. If they don't align with this method of following the market I know how to avoid getting involved.

I may not have all the answers but I feel I know how to now find them eventually. I didn't have that a month ago. Also in all my studies by now I also think I know how to tell when I've found something substantial vs just another gimmick like a few MA's and MACD on a 15minute or something. Any time I'd try one of those methods I'd know it's bad news while I was doing it. This is the first time I feel it's the right way to do it.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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