Stocks trending room

Silly market is still in PUNK MODE..

I have it on the Q T that a Merger is immenent.

Fed Ex have ratified a proposal from UPS to merge.

The New Symbol will be...

FEDUP


Joking of course. Sorry for the interlude.

Bemac dat be a good one.. I'll try to remember dis..lol

Nufin on me target list for today..

Here is one that has been easy money all last year.. WMT off weekly range.. Buy low 40's sell 45-47..

At 12:52 est the space shuttle flew over my house.. The sonic boom shook all the winders..

I'm thinking currently the only groups holding are TECH and Commodity related issues.. If TECH stutters as it might we might see some more downside in the markets.. I'm noticing TECH is loosing some momentum. Currently I don't see much as far as leadership in the markets..

I'll remain bull in SIlver going forward as should things implode I think metals will remain strong. I know many just saying this is an overdue pull back, fact is every crash starts in a similar way.. now I'm not saying we are crashing, but the leadership role does have me a little concerned..

Chart of semi's and they do not look good.. Nice sideways action followed by a drop out of range..

http://img141.imageshack.us/img141/9255/soxdw7.png

Chart of S&P banking index..

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/6945/bixzt3.png

USD

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/5030/ddfn8.png

The sick list goes on and on.. Sick and so the big question to ask a expert would be is this a buying op? You know the buy the dip thing?

WM gets the bear award today as it is -16% as typing..


http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/2894/wmqb1.png

Last basket list from page 1.. I went with a 50/50 split as per long v.s. short.. Total of 8 stocks with positions sized off volatility model and so not to risk more then 1% per position. The risk on some positions were as much as 12-15% but the size of the position was reduced to keep within my criteria. Some might laugh at the small position size but I think it is prudent to understand how much to buy based off one's model or approach to risk.

Charts adjust stop placement as per volatility and only get adjusted from close of day and if they move in intended position.. This info I learned this from was the only stock book I've read.. It is by a guy named Van Tharp..
Here are the port standings of this model using the persistent trend volatility approach.. Signals into positions were random based off direction of trend..

http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/1853/portor6.th.png

A buddy of mine gave me some code to place inside of Amibroker and so it simply gives the Risk and position size based off ATR values and so I have called this system the ATR SYS..

Now thus far I have not figured how to use this in forex.. I use a mini account and the position sizing has been tricky.. Being new to forex I've only been using .10 for sizing and so far do not feel comfortable using more.. I understand and see how buying too much in forex can kick some butt..

In closing I have also ran this model with a 5K account with decent results.. Position size is small but risk criteria remains the same and only take 5 small positions. I did an experiment on this as most think small amounts of capital do not have a chance in the markets.. Sure the gains were not huge but over time it tests out by using a volatility approach to position sizing.. One of the biggest hurtles for me was playing with stops.. I'm sure this applies in forex as any market.

For those who have emailed me regarding the charting package I use Telecharts http://www.worden.com/default.aspx gold.. Cost about 300USD a year.. All charts load into memory and so you cycle through charts simply by tapping your space bar..

edit: Oh I should mention this is not for forex charts..

I also need to point out the gold is not live data feed. I have used the platinum but did not like it as I normally don't day trade..

Gold Charts will run about 20 min. behind and would need to be refreshed.. Just wanted to point this out in case your a day trader

Some interesting posts up there. I notice you can short stocks, or is that a CFD or other instrument? I have not yet found a broker who will provide that facility - and the more I thought about it the more I am going off the idea. It only takes a suspension of dealing to drop one into a tight spot.

I am watching the general market to decide whether this is the begininng of a general down-turn. On the face it seems to be a financial sector disaster and I am setting up to launch into the recovery. My last play like this was '98. However signs are starting to appear of a more extensive effect. Construction is slowing in the US and in the UK. The embarrassed faces at Citi-group and Meryll will be followed by others, rumours have dragged UK banks behind the US mire and there is a deafening silence concerning who is struggling with refinancing. There are two UK bank trading statements due at e.o. November and early December which will provide telling evidence.

However, or maybe just ancillary to that, the tech sector is slowing and particularly consumer electronics. Adding that to the construction slow-down is just cause for some caution. A bit more bad sector-news from industrials or wherever and that signals a more general decline.

Not long to wait now until we find out..........

I'm seeing more short set-ups then long and the S&P500 is in drift mode. I also have noticed several China issues hitting my screen.

Here is a look at the drift into R in the S&P.. Price action reject from R/line.. Makes me wonder if another leg down in coming.. We shall see!!

http://img162.imageshack.us/img162/5549/sp500pp4.png