Transition from Losing to Winning

Actually found this is completely irrelevant 90% of the time - and I am on 10-20+ spread widener Oanda. But totally depends on how you trade / what timefram you trade off of.

Let's give this the emphasis it deserves.

All very very very very true and important points.

Realizing this is the first step to overcoming it.

...but you notice I didn't post a bar graph which includes September results. That's because it was the worst month since March.

And October is worse even than March. Ouch.

I've been struggling with a scaling in strategy, and still struggling with the swing trade stuff.

The scaling in left me with some bigger positions when stops got hit, and the swing trading left me with some pretty wide stops. Thus, the bad October. I'd started those two things near the end of September, so that's what dragged that mongh down, but just not as far.

This week I came upon Iandecoker's method. I'd just gotten hit hard by the "dollar on steroids" run, and once again I saw the signs that swing trading is not for me.

So now I take 5 pips per trade. I like it. I've found that the second signal on one move is high probability, so I'm trading 50 cents a pip on those, 5 times my normal position. I've found that if the 5 pip takes you past a s/r, then you might want to hang on for more than 5.

Maybe that's all I needed, a method that I like, that works for me. It is certainly an improvement so far.

A call to my mentor helped get my head screwed on in the forward direction again (thanks, Lou!) and so we'll see where this takes me now.

Helle Blueruby,

Well I guess I'm in the same struggle. I've been exploring some systems. Blew a $ 500,- mini account in no time. Then because of a bad brooker my account had to be moved and I could not trade. Then I found OANDA and learned I could trade with less money. Although I would have liked to start a greater account I opened one with only $50,-. I'm glad I did. Thinking I knew what to do to double my account every three months I brought it down to as much as $ 14.25. Main problem (I think): not following the rules of my plan. The plan I trade now is much alike the iandekoker 5 pips. I read that thread and your comments. To speed up my learning following the rules of a system I trade the 1 minute charts. I follow the rules most of the time, but still somtimes I fall in the habit of trying to pick tops and bottoms and tradin countertrend. Although it does not seem like much I brought my account up again to $ 14.88. If I want be able to take it back to the $ 50,- I started with I guess I want be able to trade succesfully with any amount of money.
I will follow this thread and iandekoker's thread.

Thanks for this thread and for posting your 'results charts'. And hopelfully you will succeed so you will not have to change the title of this thread.

FP

I've been doing the same thing, I have an OANDA account. It's gone from $500 down to $45 over the last 10 months. Now I'm just using it for long-term trades (no, I haven't quit trying that altogether - either I'll build the account or blow it). I figured if I can't make a small account grow, then I can't make a big account grow.

I think 1M is going to make learning harder, IMO. You can get lost in the noise, although there are people who trade the 10 second chart on Oanda...

Use your position sizing tool. I've cleaned it up and will repost it.

Well, was down to $ 13.16.
Hm, still not able to trade according to my plan. Or don't I have one? I do not know anymore.
Up now today from $ 13.25 to $ 13.59 trading from 19:08 till 20:21 Eur/JPY on 1 minute graph 80 units, 7 winners to 1 'loser'. According to plan or just luck? I do not know. Maybe I'll have to put my plan on paper. But I did that before and realised later I never used it. Ever got the feeling thinking you got it know? I think I am nearby. Just need to give myself the last push (or insight) to get there. Well, I'll keep trying.

FP

I think with Iandecoker's system, or any system for that matter, the lower timeframe you use, the more false signals you'll get. However, the higher timeframe, the later the signal. This week I've seen more bad signals, or maybe it's just me. If I can't tell the difference I'm not there yet! But I do know there have been many false signals.

I've been studying James16 and that knowledge will become part of me.

Too many people claim it's psychology. I took psychology courses in college and they never once mentioned trading.

It's like learning to fly. The first few times you get into that aircraft, you're going to be nervous. There are a lot of things vying for your attention and you're going to make mistakes at first.

But you have an instructor beside you to keep you alive until you learn to land. You'll perform a number of landings until you can fly solo. That number varies from person to person.

Until you've practiced sufficiently with the instructor there to intervene, you are at risk on your own.

No amount of "positive thinking" or "pep talks" or any other psychology practice is going to make you a safe pilot. You need to put in your flying time and practice landings.

Back to my earlier Mark Douglas comments, one could say that accomplished pilots are very confident and self-assured when they get into the cockpit.

It doesn't follow that having a particular attitude would make you a competent pilot. That comes from knowing you know.

I know how to fly. I need to learn to trade profitably.

Problem: I still trade pretty much the way I did a year ago, right after I took my first course and dove in. I knew the basics then, and know quite a bit more now, but I do not use what I know. Therefore, something else is in the way, which for now I will call 'bad habits'.

Solution: Identify and break the bad habits and so change the way you approach the market and think about trading.

Problem: I get up in the morning with a clear head, anxious to get to work. I look at my charts, identify the best prospect for a trade, whether this takes 5 minutes or 5 hours, then usually just jump in for lack of a better opportunity.

Solution: Get up every morning and say, "I'm not going to trade today. I'm just not going to trade today, period."

If I can hold off, then so be it. BUT, if a genuine "A" trade comes along, you know I'll take it.

I believe this mindset will keep me from manufacturing trades. That mindset will eventually become habit.

You post it isn't the psychological component then posts 2 posts that state two behavioral / psychological problems.

Where's this damn forest, all the trees are in the way, can't see a thing!

Micro Mini Me said that when he enters a trade, he considers the money gone, this helps him control emotions during a trade. This made me consider the way I think about the money.

Problem: I tend to think of the money in my account as not really money. As if it's already gone. I don't know why, maybe it's because the odds say I'll lose it, maybe it's because it's not in my physical pocket. Whatever the reason, this is a bad habit.

Solution: think of the account like any other account. It is money. Do I want to spend some on a trade or keep it in my pocket, or spend it on something else? Is this trade good enough to put my cash on the line?

Problem: I seem to always want to trade against the trend. Although there may be many opportunities there, I still have a bias of some sort that makes me want to go against the obvious.

Solution: run through a checklist before every trade. If going against the trend, make sure there are good reasons, make sure the setup is solid, and be willing to take a smaller profit.

I don't know for sure where this comes from. I believe a lot of my problems stem from seeing too many "examples" in courses and books where the setup looked good and the trade made a HUGE move. That makes me want to pick tops and bottoms; it makes me hold winners until they become losers. It makes me hold losers too long.

Solution: get in the habit of taking profits. Use price action and get out quickly at the first sign of trouble. Protect your profits.

Problem: switching timeframes. It happened again. NZD just got stopped out after having a 60 pip profit at one time. I was holding for the big, month long move (the Jacko syndrome).

Solution: forget the huge moves. Learn a system that fits my personality, which is short term trades, scalps which will be held a minute or a few hours depending.

Repeat this until it becomes part of me:

My money is to be made by capturing small moves with large positions. I have a high-probability system and am confident that I can trade it consistently. I am happy to take a few pips out of the middle of a move if it means my risk is minimized.

There's a difference, and that's exactly my point.

Breaking a bad habit of doing things the wrong way is in the area of TECHNIQUE.

It's a technical issue, not a matter of attitude. You're not going to learn the right way to trade PURELY by being confident, optimistic, having group hugs, circle jerks, whatever.... that's all I'm saying.

Skip the headshrinking, I'll take techniques any day.

In other words, using my first example, a mentor might look over my shoulder and say, "you're manufacturing trades." After pointing out several instances of that, I'd say "aha, you're right" and change my viewpoint on finding and entering trades.

But if he just gives me another motivational book, or a visualization or goal-setting exercise, etc., sure, that might help my outlook in general, but it doesn't teach me what I'm doing wrong, or what to change.

There's a big difference between saying, "Don't do THAT!!! Do it like this! See?"

versus

"all you have to do is have a positive outlook and you'll be a great trader."

Make sense?

Anyway, I'm very happy today.

I took a pinbar trade and made a profit. I have that now, in my bag of tricks! It's mine forever.

I took two other trades, and made a mistake. It was something I read about last night. I knew when I read it that I'd been doing it wrong. Then today I did it wrong again and it cost me -- had I done it right I would have had my most profitable day in a long time. Instead I closed in the red.

Then I remembered what I read, and knew clearly what I should have done "AHA!". This is a big win for me. I will never forget the lesson.

AND, if I may once again emphasize this point -- now that I know how to exit in that particular market situation, I will do it without wondering what to do, without fear, greed, or any emotion whatsoever, whenever it comes up in the future! Because I KNOW HOW to do it! That's the difference!

These are the things that make a trader. If I learned one of these per week, I would be kicking some market ass in a month or two. Subtle tricks in handling particular market action make all the difference between traders and newbies.

Maybe you guys are right. It's all in my head. You MUST be right.

I'm either on the verge of a breakthrough, or going off the deep end, and at this point I really don't care which. It can't get any worse.

Maybe trading is ALL mental, 100.000%. Maybe good traders have expanded their consciousness to where they can tap into a higher intelligence, the combined minds of all traders, and can actually forsee moves, can feel the pull one way or the other. Maybe this is where the trader's intuition, the market "feel", really comes from, and all this analysis is just a pretense, a charade. And that's where all these cosmic psycho tools come in.

This morning I thought I could get 5 easy pips on the retrace. I accidently put in a buy, and immediately closed it and corrected, like a good trader. I lost 20 on my sell. The accident would have made money.

At about 8:54 GMT the next breakout started. I went long. Was it a revenge trade? Did I just jump in after a loss? Is it a breakout or a fakeout? Most are fakeouts. I should have waited for confirmation. What would a pro say? 'It's shot up once, chances are good for another breakout to the upside, go long when it breaks 5 or 10 pips above the high!' Well, just watch it and don't take another loss. If it doesn't move, get out.

At around 9:03 or 4, it ticked down. Crap. Back to the range, it was a fakeout. Get out. Been burned on too many fakeouts. Damn, down 5, here we go again. Oh, wait, 3, 2, 1, 0. Get out even? Ouch, -4 again. -3, -2. It's giving you a chance to get out before getting slammed, take it. Out with -2. Whew!

Seconds later -- and I don't mean 200 seconds, or 60 or 30 seconds, I mean 3 or 4 seconds later, it starts the run up. (there is no emoticon to put here of the little guy beating himself in the head with a section of 4x4.)

That does it. I'm perfect. Perfectly wrong. You can't get much better than that. Therefore I have to be workign against myself. It seems I will not let myself win.

I do beat myself up a lot. I set high standards for myself, and fail. Maybe the punishment to myself is taking another bad trade. That's the worst thing I can do to myself here, so maybe that's it, I'm in an endless cycle of punishing myself for punishing myself.

.....

.....

.....

Nahhhhhh.

Hell, I could have reversed and gone short instead of going flat, and taken another huge loss .....

Hmm, speaking of short, there is a pinbar on the GU 30M right now....

Cutting your losses short needs to be done with risk/reward in perspective.

I've been trading a 5 t/p, 20 s/l system on the 5 and 15M for a week or so, which is great fun when you're hitting a lot, but a few losses in a row add up pretty fast. Taking losses fast is critical.

Even for weeks before that, the losses were hitting me hard. I had weeks with 65% winning trades and lost over 100 pips. So I've started getting this mindset to lower the losses and get out if the trade wasn't going my way within a few bars.

What I should have been thinking this morning is that the breakout could well retrace after punching through, and that a 20 pip stop would be reasonable when going after for a 40 - 60 pip move.

Had I thought out, PLANNED and EXECUTED that trade, it would have been a very profitable day.

Nevertheless, I have learned, so today is a success.

There are a number of things that have made the difference, all are the same things we've been told over and over.

Mostly it's been picking the "A" trades and passing on the rest. And limiting losses. November was similar to previous months, I would have sevearal winning days, then a BIG losing day. A blow-up of sorts. So I just concentrated on limiting loss, more focus, more control, trading smarter.

I'm still clawing for every pip most days, but it's getting better. I'm having more easy days (done early am, hit target for the day) and fewer bad days, which used to be frequent. Even on bad days I usually manage to make money - trade my way out of the hole.

One thing I noticed, looking over my records since March. After a big losing day, many times I would have a big winning day. Or, I'd lose big in the morning, and make it up in the afternoon -- proving I could do it right when I set my mind to it and behaved like a pro.

The market seems like a much friendlier place. Except for that one guy that keeps popping up....

Another thing I've done is kept a trading log.

Date
Time
Pair
Position
Timeframe
entry
price
stop
target
exit plan
early exit
outcome
pips
p/l

To be filled out in advance (what can be) before every trade. This keeps me from "jumping in" without a specific plan for each trade, and good reasons for entering. Sometimes it's hard to remember what you were thinking if you don't write it down.

shocking...
I hope this is your demo account. I had a similar loss too. 2 years ago and blow more than 3 demo accounts.