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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #8,181
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:21pm Nov 6, 2007 8:21pm
Just entered a demo trade on the GJ. Would appreciate some feedback / critique on it

D1: yesterday candle forms TC with bounce off 21EMA. 200SMA also forms good support. Price over 89. Tweezer bottom?? Good signs.

H4: price over 89. TC signal on previous candle based on bounce of 21, and its an engulfing candle. Also, price has broken out of resistance formed by consolidation zone highs 1 Nov and 5 Nov. 21EMA aligns with this broken resistance (hopefully turned support now!)

Entry at 239.40.
Stop at 238.75 (signal candle low). Sting of 16:00 down candle should mean this stop is sufficient, based on historical setups.
Risk = 65pips - bigger than normal 50 or so for other pairs, but ATR on GJ larger, so to me this fits nicely within suitable range.
Profit targets: Take 50% profit at 40pips (again, based on higher ATRs), Bring other 50% to B.E. Potential Exit 2 at 240.40 support-turned-resistance line. However, as day charts have fresh TC signal, I'll probably let this run as long as poss, with trailing stop below 21EMA.

Look forward to some thoughts!
(Hope the chart shows up...)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4hr.gif Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj d1.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #8,182
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:25pm Nov 6, 2007 8:25pm
Euro showing some strength... patience ladies and gentlemen... patience
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #8,183
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:26pm Nov 6, 2007 8:26pm
Quoting BenStevo
Just entered a demo trade on the GJ. Would appreciate some feedback / critique on it

D1: yesterday candle forms TC with bounce off 21EMA. 200SMA also forms good support. Price over 89. Tweezer bottom?? Good signs.

H4: price over 89. TC signal on previous candle based on bounce of 21, and its an engulfing candle. Also, price has broken out of resistance formed by consolidation zone highs 1 Nov and 5 Nov. 21EMA aligns with this broken resistance (hopefully turned support now!)

Entry at 239.40.
Stop at 238.75 (signal candle low). Sting of 16:00 down candle should mean this stop is sufficient, based on historical setups.
Risk = 65pips - bigger than normal 50 or so for other pairs, but ATR on GJ larger, so to me this fits nicely within suitable range.
Profit targets: Take 50% profit at 40pips (again, based on higher ATRs), Bring other 50% to B.E. Potential Exit 2 at 240.40 support-turned-resistance line. However, as day charts have fresh TC signal, I'll probably let this run as long as poss, with trailing stop below 21EMA.

Look forward to some thoughts!
(Hope the chart shows up...)
Nice analysis, but could your account handle a 65 pip stop??? That's a big one.

Sitting on my hands on the Euro...flirting with the resistance right now...
  • #8,184
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:27pm Nov 6, 2007 8:27pm
Quoting BenStevo
Just entered a demo trade on the GJ. Would appreciate some feedback / critique on it

D1: yesterday candle forms TC with bounce off 21EMA. 200SMA also forms good support. Price over 89. Tweezer bottom?? Good signs.

H4: price over 89. TC signal on previous candle based on bounce of 21, and its an engulfing candle. Also, price has broken out of resistance formed by consolidation zone highs 1 Nov and 5 Nov. 21EMA aligns with this broken resistance (hopefully turned support now!)

Entry at 239.40.
Stop at 238.75 (signal candle low). Sting of 16:00 down candle should mean this stop is sufficient, based on historical setups.
Risk = 65pips - bigger than normal 50 or so for other pairs, but ATR on GJ larger, so to me this fits nicely within suitable range.
Profit targets: Take 50% profit at 40pips (again, based on higher ATRs), Bring other 50% to B.E. Potential Exit 2 at 240.40 support-turned-resistance line. However, as day charts have fresh TC signal, I'll probably let this run as long as poss, with trailing stop below 21EMA.

Look forward to some thoughts!
(Hope the chart shows up...)

Hard to read the chart but it looks okay.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #8,185
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:28pm Nov 6, 2007 8:28pm
what's happening to eur/$ !!!!???
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #8,186
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:32pm Nov 6, 2007 8:32pm
Holy cow!!! Not sure what that was about but I was watching the 1min with that all time high res level and got in...dumped it at 1.4616 WOW!!!! That was crazy!
Attached Image
  • #8,187
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:32pm Nov 6, 2007 8:32pm
I generally work on 3% of account. So just a matter of establishing how many lots I can enter for that particular stoploss. Happy with keeping it under 50 on the EUR/USD to avoid jumping into motion, but the GJ tends to have larger candles.

At the moment I have 36pip ATR (using 100ATR) on EU, while its at 112pips on GJ.

Roughly speaking, 1.5x ATR on EU gives the 50pips, 1.5x ATR on GJ gives 160+ as ok stoploss. Would not feel comfortable going that big though.

Does that sound reasonable??
  • #8,188
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:37pm Nov 6, 2007 8:37pm
That had to have been a system trade or there were huge orders above that level that was set 13 years ago, or as far back as my MT4 charts go back at least...
  • #8,189
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:39pm Nov 6, 2007 8:39pm
I think that just showed how many people had gotten short there, like a short squeeze in equities.

Phillip warned that if the move continued that it could really go and go.

There were a lot of people playing around on the beach when the tidal wave came! haha
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #8,190
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:43pm Nov 6, 2007 8:43pm
Quoting BenStevo
I generally work on 3% of account. So just a matter of establishing how many lots I can enter for that particular stoploss. Happy with keeping it under 50 on the EUR/USD to avoid jumping into motion, but the GJ tends to have larger candles.

At the moment I have 36pip ATR (using 100ATR) on EU, while its at 112pips on GJ.

Roughly speaking, 1.5x ATR on EU gives the 50pips, 1.5x ATR on GJ gives 160+ as ok stoploss. Would not feel comfortable going that big though.

Does that sound reasonable??
I know there are quite a few people who look at the ATR for stop management and as long as the market stays within that 'realm' of movement then you should be good to go. I have looked at the ATR 'a little' but it seems like that would work better for longer term trades ...daily/monthly..since the news events can send the ATR all over the place. Just thinking out loud on that one. But, if it has been serving you well then by all means add it to your toolbox!
  • #8,191
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:44pm Nov 6, 2007 8:44pm
02:36 USD: Slammed Lower On Comments From China Official Sydney, November 07:
Comments made by a top Chinese adviser saying that China should diversify more
of their 1.4 TLN USD reserves into the Euro sparked a huge jump in the EUR/USD
from 1.4565 to 1.4665 in very quick time. The comments have weighed on the US
dollar across the board and helped push gold ever higher
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #8,192
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:45pm Nov 6, 2007 8:45pm
Gee, my short USD/JPY lived to tell the tale , It climbed all the day and stayed 3 hours at just 2-3 pips to hit my stop loss, finaly fell, for me the trade was lost je je je.
Ado Whether you believe you can do a thing or not, you are right.
  • #8,193
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:49pm Nov 6, 2007 8:49pm
And for the people who pushed the EUR short, enjoy the loss Never push a trade or you will lose money.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #8,194
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:53pm Nov 6, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
And for the people who pushed the EUR short, enjoy the loss Never push a trade or you will lose money.


there is also others who are enjoying the short at 1.4660
  • #8,195
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:59pm Nov 6, 2007 8:59pm
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--China should diversify its $1.43 trillion in foreign exchange reserves by buying more currencies that are strong such as the euro, a senior Chinese political figure said Wednesday, according to Reuters.
"For instance, the euro is rising and the dollar is weakening, and we can achieve a better match of the two," said Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Chinese People's Political and Consultative Conference, according to Reuters.
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #8,196
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:59pm Nov 6, 2007 8:59pm
Finished shooting those fish in that barrel. Wooosh. I hope that nobody really got hurt with all that. This is going to take a while to settle out folks so be cautious the next few days.
  • #8,197
  • Nov 6, 2007 8:59pm Nov 6, 2007 8:59pm
man you must be good. I don't know of many people who can justify shorting a market as soon as it runs up 100 pips in 4 minutes
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #8,198
  • Nov 6, 2007 9:00pm Nov 6, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting mike_dg
there is also others who are enjoying the short at 1.4660
I guess some people just cant help it. Do we have another PLEASE IGNORE ME posting here.
On a different note, good to see people making pips today and having POSITIVE activity on the thread. it is sooo hard to sit on side line this week and not trade but enjoying reading it end of day. make plenty pips everyone. Good luck.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #8,199
  • Nov 6, 2007 9:03pm Nov 6, 2007 9:03pm
I shorted @4660, reason is that the EUR roughly has a 100 pips daily range, we were trading @4560 before the big run, so @4660 we already reached the daily range, stoploss @4690 (30 pips), now the fall to 89 ema from here is 300 pips, this fall will be quick and fast before end of week
  • #8,200
  • Nov 6, 2007 9:03pm Nov 6, 2007 9:03pm
Quoting merrittb
man you must be good. I don't know of many people who can justify shorting a market as soon as it runs up 100 pips in 4 minutes
You are right , you really cant justify it with a 4 hour time frame based strategy maybe on 1 min or 5 min or predetermined fib levels. anyways, gotta let this settle down and let a set up develop before jumping in. happy pipping.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
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