Trading all the ones I feel are good, about 90% are good I did not take the JPN short though and that one did not work out. I guess it's because I have been doing this for years and that helps me pick out my trades. I don't do any of the trendlines, Fib #'s, 3 dolls, or any of that stuff. I keep it easy and just trade it as I see it. I used to use all that crap and all it did was get in the way. Learn the price movement and how the market moves, that's all you need really. All this other stuff will just slow your trading down and make you start to seconds guess youself. If you are a good trader and really understand how this works you can trade any setup and make money. So far this setup that Phillip posted is one of the top 3 I have traded and the top one I have done as far as long term. I have only been doing longer term charts now for a few months so I am still a noob
Thanks Shauny and Palmer for your replys.
I can't help but feeling that I am missing something or have not grasped a principle. I understand the 8,21 and 89 are indicators of the past 8,21 and 89 periods. (I want to come to grips only with the 4 hr first, then I'll look at the 1 hr and 5 mins at a future time.) Good idea -- I missed this when I answered the questions below. Phillip's 5 min system on FF is independent of this one...don't confuse the two.
I still don't understand the speed? Essentually, how far will the price retrace before travelling on to it's destination...the faster the "speed", the stronger the trend (also very important if you are counter-trend trading to determine TP's and where to move to BE) -- Discussed in detail w/your additional questions.
Am I right that the motion is the general movement : up and down. And that motion gives the moves up and down about the 8, 21 and 89, which then gives us a rhythm Yes, motion is the general movement of the market. Sometimes we refer to it when price is just moving (i.e. don't get involved w/the motion). Sometimes we are a bit loose w/our termonology and we use motion and rhythm to mean the same thing (my bad -- sorry, I'll try to be more specific in the future). Rhythm or the "motion of the market" is when price is behaving per the expectation around the MA's. (ie, to the 89, pullback to the 21, move away...sometimes a broken support line also acts as the pullback level and can be included in the market. We see Rhythm when the market is trending -- and that is the simple pull back to the 8 or 21 and move away in the direction of the trend -- this pattern repeats itself nicely over time when the market is in rhythm. The MA's ( 8 & 21) also are usually trending in a direction and the 8 & 21 are parallel and spaced nicely in a trend (a little extra info).
Is emotion "how" the motion moves about the MA's which is a component of rhythm. Above the 89, general bullish emotion and below, general bearish emotion. Likewise for the 8EMA but more current, immediate emotion?
The "emotion" is the way participants are acting in the market...are they greedy, fearful, or undecided. It is evidenced in the candles. Bullish candles = up sentiment, spinners, dojis, pins (in a compact range), show indecision -- maybe a change in sentiment or just need some time to rethink their positions -- could be a "front-running" sign to a change in market direction because of "fear." The 89 is used as "mood" -- above = buying mood, below = selling mood. Sentiment is better word choice.
Does speed have anything to do with how quickly the market moves up or down to the 21EMA. Phillip used an analogy early on talking about different driving lanes. The 8 is the "fast" lane -- it has a destination to get to and doesn't want to take a lot of breaks looking at the scenery (retracements aren't very far in price and the trend is strong -- it has a purpose to continue on its way. The 21 is the normal driving speed lane. It has a place to go and wants to get there quickly, but more breaks are taken along the way (by break, I mean a deeper retrace). The 21 acts as a main base for us in a normal trend -- it is where price seems to "bounce" and continue in trend direction. The 89 is the tourist route -- and also home base. Eventually, price will return to the 89 (a much deeper retrace usually than the 8/21). This level could be a slow trend, where price continues back in the direction of the trend -- or it could signal a shift off the main road for a little while. (for me, and this isn't Phillip -- the 200 is the ultimate Home Base -- Price will always return here somewhere along the route and this is the key turning point for the market direction -- we will often see price "swirl" around the 200 and 89 MA's if direction is undecided -- consolidation while we look at the maps).
I can watch a 5 min TF and I see that every 5 mins, the prices continually coming down, is this a speed indication because it happens in a 5 min TF. No, don't confuse yourself on the 5 min TF -- this will get you involved in motion (ie. noise) -- If you are trading a 5 min chart have your rules set up in advance for that method sep. from this 4 hour method.
I can watch a 5 min TF and within the 5 mins prices bounce up and down with large/long candles - when looking back up to a 4hr TF the 21 could have been touched and then its back up again to the 8EMA. Is this a speed indication within a 4 hr candle? ??? I don't know how to answer this, b/c I'm really not sure what it asks. Think you are looking at noise within the 4 hour candle. If you want to see what is happening on the 4 hour scale, look to the 1 hour charts w/the same setup as the 4 hour. The 1 hour will also show you if the market is developing a rhythm on the shorter frame which may develop into the longer chart.
Like I said I can't help but feeling I'm missing the point - or some fundamental revelation? Keep studying and you will have an "A-HA" moment. It will click together eventually (funny how we all have to discover our trading "truths" on our own -- seems so simple, but is one of the hardest things you will ever do!). Congrats on starting the journey!!
I'm struggling to keep up with the speed! Yes, the thread is exploding! We thought it was growing fast a few months ago -- yikes
Phillip - you rock!
thank u for all you who have helped me, i think i understand what you are trying to say. i think that i have to be patient to wait for a turnaround to 8/21 or tc http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif.
what is rising wedge by the way? i only know of doji, hammer. where can i get the info for this?
i entered usd/jpy 114.20 yesterday, and a few minutes after that, it went up http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif. but i realised that is fully my mistake for entering the trade in such a rush.
thanks
).Out of rest of EURUSD +80
Out of all of GBPUSD + 71
Over 300 pips so far this month and done for the month. Thanks for this great system Phillip now I don't have to do the 3min thing anymore
.
Trading all the ones I feel are good, about 90% are good I did not take the JPN short though and that one did not work out. I guess it's because I have been doing this for years and that helps me pick out my trades. I don't do any of the trendlines, Fib #'s, 3 dolls, or any of that stuff. I keep it easy and just trade it as I see it. I used to use all that crap and all it did was get in the way. Learn the price movement and how the market moves, that's all you need really. All this other stuff will just slow your trading down and make you start to seconds guess youself. If you are a good trader and really understand how this works you can trade any setup and make money. So far this setup that Phillip posted is one of the top 3 I have traded and the top one I have done as far as long term. I have only been doing longer term charts now for a few months so I am still a noob
hmm, In the past when I have seen good systems posted they would fail over time due to lots of people using it or funds start looking to make these types of setup's fail. At least that was for the S&P not sure if they can push this market around as easy.
-- especially in the very liquid pairs. Someday, the liquidity may make the market move slower (less pips to be had)
and that would make me sad. Hi Ryanmcd,
Great advice on learning price movements and how the market moves!
I have to kindly disagree on not using trendlines or other form of TA though (sorry). You have years of experience under your belt and have a feel for the market b/c you paid the years of drawing trendlines, looking at candlesticks, fibs, patterns, etc. Now, you can eyeball a chart and see what is happening and are now instinctively putting it all together. A newbie can't do this. They have to learn how to see the info on the chart or they will only chase MACD signal trades (and be whipsawed out of the market). Notice how you reference, you can trade any set-up and make money....don't you think that's because your brain sees it? A newbie doesn't "see" it without practice. (& I've been trading financial markets for about 12 years, and my brain always needs reminders of important price levles -- I'm a bit forgetful
Also, I absolutely 100% feel that you have to know where your support and resistance levels are. This is how you plan trades and minimize your risk. If you don't know where these levels are (in a normal market -- assume not trending), I guarantee you will take on way too much risk and will not stay in Forex for very long.
Now...What do you plan on doing for the rest of the month?
Best,
Pips
Hi Ryanmcd,
Great advice on learning price movements and how the market moves!
I have to kindly disagree on not using trendlines or other form of TA though (sorry). You have years of experience under your belt and have a feel for the market b/c you paid the years of drawing trendlines, looking at candlesticks, fibs, patterns, etc. Now, you can eyeball a chart and see what is happening and are now instinctively putting it all together. A newbie can't do this. They have to learn how to see the info on the chart or they will only chase MACD signal trades (and be whipsawed out of the market). Notice how you reference, you can trade any set-up and make money....don't you think that's because your brain sees it? A newbie doesn't "see" it without practice. (& I've been trading financial markets for about 12 years, and my brain always needs reminders of important price levles -- I'm a bit forgetful
Also, I absolutely 100% feel that you have to know where your support and resistance levels are. This is how you plan trades and minimize your risk. If you don't know where these levels are (in a normal market -- assume not trending), I guarantee you will take on way too much risk and will not stay in Forex for very long.
Now...What do you plan on doing for the rest of the month?
Best,
Pips
One of my favorite lines from the book "Trading in the Zone" is that some people say when you look at a chart you see what you want to see.......the truth is that when people look at a chart they see what they KNOW to see.....he then gives the example of the first time someone showed you a chart with all those lines on it.......it was just a jumbled mess to you.......then later after some learning you go back and look at the same chart and are amazed at what was in front of you the whole time.......I hope some day to be as good as Ryan and be able to "see" what is there without the visual cues i use .......but until then i'll stick with my trendlines,fibs and sup/res lines..........them I KNOW. And believe me i need all the help i can get! LOL........pipip........Jimdandy.....
p.s. anyone take the tc on the cable?....i have one on my gmt+2
Hi,
sorry, this is not a 4hmacd post:
a funny thing happened with my usd/jpy trades.
on my realaccount with oanda I'm still in the trade,
while on my demoaccount with aleccohfx my sl was triggered.
they say that at aleccohfx they have real bank feeds,
while oanda is a dealing desk. onada was dealing on my favour right now.
any ideas?
Greetings
).Pip's you are right, I guess it's a combo of both. I spent years just looking at charts without anything on them to get a feel for it, and trendlines do help if you can not use a crosshair and just draw them up mentaly. It also helps that I have a near photographic memory so when I see a setup work several times I can see it in my mind. Also I have seen it where people have too much on there chart and can not make a trade due to stuff conflicting as you can see the old "I missed bla" posts. I guess it is just a blend of what works for you and what you enjoy doing. As far as the rest of the month, I will be here trading I am sure. It's one of my loves trading, the gym, drums, and computers
! (wish I had the photomemory!!). Enjoy your "quasi" trading month!! I'm getting a good laugh picturing you at the computer banging on the drums placing a trade!! talk about multi-tasking!! LOL!! Looking for a short setup here, low risk and nice long ways off the 8MA which is what I like.
