This is my first post so here's where I'm coming from. I was recently introduced to forex by a friend, about a month ago. I got metatrader 4 and quickly began experimenting with demo accounts. My first couple demo accounts I quickly ruined, but when I really put my mind to trading and don't put in trades just to see what will happen, I usually break even after a couple trades. I found this forum which I really like and find very useful about two weeks ago.
So, I was wondering why 95% of forex traders are on the losing side. There are only two ways a currency pair can go - up or down. That should mean 50-50 chance you win or lose after entering a trade. Now combined with spread I don't know how to apply the math, but spread shouldn't make the success rate go from 50% to 5%... with lower time frames spread will obviously effect success rate negatively more.. but most traders(based on this forum atleast..) seem to trade 1hr+ charts, where spreads should barely make a difference whether you win or lose. With all the market analysis and strategies there are out there, and the 50-50 chance I just mentioned, how in the world is the success rate only 5%?
So, I was wondering why 95% of forex traders are on the losing side. There are only two ways a currency pair can go - up or down. That should mean 50-50 chance you win or lose after entering a trade. Now combined with spread I don't know how to apply the math, but spread shouldn't make the success rate go from 50% to 5%... with lower time frames spread will obviously effect success rate negatively more.. but most traders(based on this forum atleast..) seem to trade 1hr+ charts, where spreads should barely make a difference whether you win or lose. With all the market analysis and strategies there are out there, and the 50-50 chance I just mentioned, how in the world is the success rate only 5%?