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  • #61
  • Oct 16, 2007 5:57pm Oct 16, 2007 5:57pm
Here is another trade.....a support/bounce/ failed, with an 8/8 cross.

Posting for review....
Fxj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #62
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:37pm Oct 16, 2007 6:37pm
This is the direction for EURUSD, IMO.
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  • #63
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:42pm Oct 17, 2007 8:42pm
Looks like thats as far as that correction is going down. A clear a,b,c side ways correction has formed. This thing should be going for 1.4500 range.

Dave
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  • #64
  • Oct 18, 2007 12:38am Oct 18, 2007 12:38am
Posting for review......Fxj
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #65
  • Oct 18, 2007 4:03am Oct 18, 2007 4:03am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Looks like thats as far as that correction is going down. A clear a,b,c side ways correction has formed. This thing should be going for 1.4500 range.

Dave
Moved above now, invalidates the old "B of ABC correction for lower" theory and hints that we may already have completed the mini-4 and are in a push up in 5, however far that'll go/extend. Probably 3 of that 5 has begun with your outlined ABC finishing the 2.

I got 1.4360 as min target for the 3 subwave..1.445, 1.45 the two more extended.


Don't look at me, I suck at EW, but it sounds so nice throwing numbers around

Lines up very neatly either way.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #66
  • Oct 18, 2007 9:58am Oct 18, 2007 9:58am
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #67
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:39am Oct 18, 2007 10:39am
15 minute trading....Had a breakout last night....Very choppy....
Used upper Time frames for over all direction. 15 min ema's also showed the trend. Posting Chart for review.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd15.gif Size: 15 KB
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #68
  • Oct 18, 2007 11:07pm Oct 18, 2007 11:07pm
The red range marks the possible diagonal triangle range that could develop over the next few days. The first top looks to be at 1.4385 range. The end of the triangles range is 1.4500. This could also be called a truncated wave 5.
If so each wave will develop in 3 waves.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #69
  • Oct 23, 2007 6:10pm Oct 23, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
The red range marks the possible diagonal triangle range that could develop over the next few days. The first top looks to be at 1.4385 range. The end of the triangles range is 1.4500. This could also be called a truncated wave 5.
If so each wave will develop in 3 waves.

Dave
Ok I forgot I posted this here. I knew it was somewhere.

The possible wedge I posted above looks to be holding for now, as price slammed against the bottom red wedge line and took a 100+ pip bounce. Now currently trying to work past the 61.8 fibo.

Advanced trading: Scaling in...

Here is a good example of scaling in. I am targeting the top wedge line at about 1.4360/65 range. So I scale in as it approaches the half way point. If your position size is going to be 3 lots, enter 1 at a time. Or break it down even more. Because when your trading at 1/3 or 1/4 position size your stress level on entry is low. Your not so worried about a mere fraction of what your desired position size will be.
So If your initial entry tanks (and we all know it does sometimes) you've lost very little compared to what you would have if you went "all in" with full position size. Once the price takes direction you simply have to watch the mile markers. Or S/R levels. Fibo's, Trend lines on daily, weekly, and round numbers. Once a marker is over come, scale another portion in.
See my positions..initial, 38.2 and 50% levels.

The trade at the bottom of chart is long term shooting for 1.4500. The 3 other positions may or may not make it to there desired level. Depends on the path it takes. If they return to entry I'll close each at b/e and wait for the next set up. Targeting the red wedge lines in above chart. The first trade will be safe as long as wedge lines hold.

Dave
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  • #70
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:13pm Oct 23, 2007 9:13pm
I'm dizzy. Aspirin please, someone. Long day at work, and this is too much. You know dave, I have no doubt you know how to use this stuff, but I'm sure if I tried all those splits and possibilities on all 10 pairs I would die of high blood pressure in about 5 minutes of trading. Thanks for the writing though, and Good luck man
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Ok I forgot I posted this here. I knew it was somewhere.

The possible wedge I posted above looks to be holding for now, as price slammed against the bottom red wedge line and took a 100+ pip bounce. Now currently trying to work past the 61.8 fibo.

Advanced trading: Scaling in...

Here is a good example of scaling in. I am targeting the top wedge line at about 1.4360/65 range. So I scale in as it approaches the half way point. If your position size is going to be 3 lots, enter 1 at a time. Or break it down even more. Because when your trading at 1/3 or 1/4 position size your stress level on entry is low. Your not so worried about a mere fraction of what your desired position size will be.
So If your initial entry tanks (and we all know it does sometimes) you've lost very little compared to what you would have if you went "all in" with full position size. Once the price takes direction you simply have to watch the mile markers. Or S/R levels. Fibo's, Trend lines on daily, weekly, and round numbers. Once a marker is over come, scale another portion in.
See my positions..initial, 38.2 and 50% levels.

The trade at the bottom of chart is long term shooting for 1.4500. The 3 other positions may or may not make it to there desired level. Depends on the path it takes. If they return to entry I'll close each at b/e and wait for the next set up. Targeting the red wedge lines in above chart. The first trade will be safe as long as wedge lines hold.

Dave
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #71
  • Oct 26, 2007 4:18pm Oct 26, 2007 4:18pm
What a nice end to what started out as a messed up week.
Those 3 trades exited at target top red wedge line 1.4360. Price continued to push past the red wedge line, so scenario # 2 with the zig zag being a correction, and not the start of a wedge formation.
So now I would expect a retest of the 1.4350/60 range to establish support before reaching out for 1.4500. Enter long on that retest and bounce.

Have a great weekend!

Dave
  • #72
  • Nov 3, 2007 5:30am Nov 3, 2007 5:30am
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  • #73
  • Nov 3, 2007 5:57am Nov 3, 2007 5:57am
Quoting surfer76
BUt there are at least like 6 other possibilities for the upper trendline, what makes you think this is the magic one? No offense here - I believe the Euro may well fall as you apparently predict, but I think the market will ignore your line completely. I could never understand how something as subjective as drawing slanting lines can be used to predict accumulative speculators' actions. It's pretty difficult for them to be a self-fulfilling indicator IMHO. Just my 2 pips.

And word of advice: stay out for now. GBPUSD had a daily pinbar that got screwed. Clear signs of BS in an uncertain period, which is why I earlier said I would be out this week, and I thankfully was. Good luck all.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #74
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:05am Nov 3, 2007 6:05am
Quoting Plutonite
BUt there are at least like 6 other possibilities for the upper trendline, what makes you think this is the magic one? No offense here - I believe the Euro may well fall as you apparently predict, but I think the market will ignore your line completely. I could never understand how something as subjective as drawing slanting lines can be used to predict accumulative speculators' actions. It's pretty difficult for them to be a self-fulfilling indicator IMHO. Just my 2 pips.

And word of advice: stay out for now. GBPUSD had a daily pinbar that got screwed. Clear signs of BS in an uncertain period, which is why I earlier said I would be out this week, and I thankfully was. Good luck all.
Hi Plutonite,

my maxim is: "Donīt make it to difficult". We have two points at the bottom. Duplicate this line and you have the upper trendline.

This line on a daily base is more than enough for me to risk a certain amount of my money in this trade. It is always about probabilities.
  • #75
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:14am Nov 3, 2007 6:14am
Quoting surfer76
Hi Plutonite,

my maxim is: "Donīt make it to difficult". We have two points at the bottom. Duplicate this line and you have the upper trendline.

This line on a daily base is more than enough for me to risk a certain amount of my money in this trade. It is always about probabilities.
Hey there,

First of all, there's about 4 bottoms on that period, not 2. You just chose the largest margin. Second, are you saying the market has a higher probability of reversing because the translation of a slanting line you drew from bottoms that you chose to a top which you again chose..never mind, you see what I'm getting at. I don't mean to attack these methods or their traders, I just fail to see how the probabilities play out in your favor. I mean only to either learn from you, or help you see your error if you are in error.

Cheers and Good Luck.
-A
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #76
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:20am Nov 3, 2007 6:20am
Quoting Plutonite

I mean only to either learn from you, or help you see your error if you are in error.

Cheers and Good Luck.
-A
. Same to you.
  • #77
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:47am Nov 3, 2007 6:47am
Quoting surfer76
Hi Plutonite,

my maxim is: "Donīt make it to difficult". We have two points at the bottom. Duplicate this line and you have the upper trendline.

This line on a daily base is more than enough for me to risk a certain amount of my money in this trade. It is always about probabilities.
Not to pile on but...that is one of the best examples of an improperly drawn trendline I have seen in quite some time. Especially, the upper line. It touches just one point and then connects to the close on Friday. Just because the market ran out of time to continue moving doesn't make it a point of resistance. This is exactly the kind of misconception we discussed here. The bottom line isn't much better since it ignores various pivots along the way.

Remember, the first "S" in K.I.S.S. stands for simiple and the second one for stupid, not the other way around.
  • #78
  • Nov 3, 2007 7:05am Nov 3, 2007 7:05am
Quoting philmcgrew
Not to pile on but...that is one of the best examples of an improperly drawn trendline I have seen in quite some time. Especially, the upper line. It touches just one point and then connects to the close on Friday. Just because the market ran out of time to continue moving doesn't make it a point of resistance. This is exactly the kind of misconception we discussed here. The bottom line isn't much better since it ignores various pivots along the way.

Remember, the first "S" in K.I.S.S. stands for simiple and the second one for stupid, not the other way around.
And even if it was a point of resistance, which ones should you pick - since they seemingly have nothing to do with each other in this case? Why would future resistance points coincide with any given line drawn between 2 resistance points as opposed to all the other lines drawn between any other 2 combinations of resistance points (which by the way are the product of a huge number of fundamental and random factors)? You're probably a greater skeptic than I am, so I'll leave it to others to enlighten us on these magical lines.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #79
  • Nov 3, 2007 9:15am Nov 3, 2007 9:15am
I think this daily chart shows some good info on this pair as it has progressed in its bullish move.. Can you pick out entry points?

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/426/eurusdvv9.png
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #80
  • Nov 3, 2007 9:19am Nov 3, 2007 9:19am
Often the simple things stare us right in the face everyday but we refuse to see it..
Check Mate GAME OVER
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