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  • #261
  • Nov 2, 2007 1:39am Nov 2, 2007 1:39am
Pivot levels (PL) seems to be less reliable and rigid with UJ than with EU, still they constitute a good level to watch

Today PL is @115.04. It has been quickly tested this morning and prices have then take off.

Watch for NFP at 8:30 EST! IF you are not in a 'safe' trade (You have secured your positive pips at least to BE) at these time, avoid entering any trade until 15 minutes after the numbers are out.

Intra day top down analysis:
H4: Up since oct. 31 but retracing, first target 115.75 reached unless 114.32 is breached then reverse down.
H1: Down since yesterday after the break of PL, all main targets reached so it can reverse up if PL is broken.
M30: Down since yesterday after the break of interim resistance, all main targets reached so it can reverse up if PL is broken.
M15: Down since this morning when it breached 114.6 support, all main targets reached so it can reverse up if 114.9 is broken.

Intra day Strategy:

1- We can buy a bounce of 114.35-40 support if retested with tight stop of 114.28 first target 114.9.

2- We can buy the bounce back of 115.04 if PL is broken targeting 115.75, 116.45, 117.2

3- We can sell 114.9-115.05 area if prices bounce targeting 114.45, 114.18, 113.75

Watch price action if prices retrace to PL after break to buy a bounce or to sell the bounce if it resist.

UJ is a fast moving currency that trends a lot, retrace suddenly and ranges for few days.
  • #262
  • Nov 2, 2007 2:31am Nov 2, 2007 2:31am
PL is @1.4440.

It has been test broken earlier today but the prices did a recovery and are edging higher.

I find this a good opportunities to go short around 1.4475-80 where we have good resistance with a SL over 1.4520 and targeting 1.4410, 1.4380.

If 1.4360 is broken later today, we have the way open to 1.4325, 1.4285 and even 1.4225 and 1.4135. A buy can be made around these levels, if the prices bounce, targeting the upper level.

Happy pips harvesting to all,

Hani
  • #263
  • Nov 2, 2007 7:42am Nov 2, 2007 7:42am
Warning! BD in Play right now!
Don't believe their lies!
Don't fell into their traps!
  • #264
  • Nov 2, 2007 10:20am Nov 2, 2007 10:20am
Quoting haniam
Warning! BD in Play right now!
Quoting haniam
Don't believe their lies!
Don't fell into their traps!


What we saw today is what I can call a perfect BD play example.
At the London Open, we have EU 1.4470, waiting for the news to decide where to go. Well the news went much more than expected, the EU tried to go down, but went up very quicqly and did even a new high trying to take stops in a bullih trap.

Then down again to 1.4470-90 area. We had a better than expected news again and the prices went a little down then same range again!

Like if all the good news had no effect in the market!
Letting think that the effect has been absorbed.

Well I don’t believe these lies.

I think that the prices will go later tonight down, or if not may go up for a gap on Sunday open then for a big down later on Monday.
  • #265
  • Nov 2, 2007 11:03am Nov 2, 2007 11:03am
You are good, haniam! I read your post before I submitted my orders. Gained some pips by shorting a couple of trades, did not get the best price because of requoting though.
Keep up your good work!

Hapipips
  • #266
  • Nov 2, 2007 2:36pm Nov 2, 2007 2:36pm
Quoting Hapipips
You are good, haniam! I read your post before I submitted my orders. Gained some pips by shorting a couple of trades, did not get the best price because of requoting though.
Quoting Hapipips
Keep up your good work!

Hapipips


Welcome to the thread Hapipips!

If you made pips today, this is because you traded well. Bravo!
Brokers did lot of requote ings and I was unable to go out of one of my trade even it was 25 pips up!

Taking in consideration the bullishness EU still seems to have, I expect the EU to do a gap up on Sunday opening and maybe a new high up to 1.4545 but if this is the case, it will be a great opportunity to sell since we may see an important down move to probably less than 1.4380

Hapipips W.E.!

Hani
  • #267
  • Nov 4, 2007 12:17am Nov 4, 2007 12:17am
haniam,

it's so difficult (for me) to make trading decisions nowadays as it seems many pairs are virtually following the Dow Jones lately ?

i wonder if the trendlines can still be trusted lately with so many pairs not just the carry trade pairs mirror the movement of the Dow...........

sometimes i really just freeze.......i thought i should follow trendlines but yet fear the price will go the opposite direction because of the Dow.
  • #268
  • Nov 4, 2007 2:21pm Nov 4, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting findcount
haniam,
Quoting findcount

it's so difficult (for me) to make trading decisions nowadays as it seems many pairs are virtually following the Dow Jones lately ?

i wonder if the trendlines can still be trusted lately with so many pairs not just the carry trade pairs mirror the movement of the Dow...........

sometimes i really just freeze.......i thought i should follow trendlines but yet fear the price will go the opposite direction because of the Dow.


Findcount,

I understand well the problem you are having. I sometimes get stuck in this state, especially when I read too many conflicting analysis and do too much analysis trying to see all the relations between Gold, Oil, Currencies, Stock market, Dow...

Well the best way I found to overpass this is to stop reading any of these analyses (Almost any), stop looking at all other markets and indices, just concentrate on my trading, and maybe only on the one or two pair I want to start trading with.

Then I put my trading plan, and apply the strategy I want to use, and I start trading following my plan. Point.

Happy trading.

Hani
  • #269
  • Nov 4, 2007 11:08pm Nov 4, 2007 11:08pm
Quoting haniam

Findcount,

I understand well the problem you are having. I sometimes get stuck in this state, especially when I read too many conflicting analysis and do too much analysis trying to see all the relations between Gold, Oil, Currencies, Stock market, Dow...

Well the best way I found to overpass this is to stop reading any of these analyses (Almost any), stop looking at all other markets and indices, just concentrate on my trading, and maybe only on the one or two pair I want to start trading with.

Then I put my trading plan, and apply the strategy I want to use, and I start trading following my plan. Point.

Happy trading.

Hani
Trading with Scared Money (SM) is the best way to loose it!
The amount is not important. It may be 1$, or 10K.

Don't trade if you are scared to lose the money in your balance...
You should not be afraid to trade the money you have in your account.
Use just a part of it. It may be a 1% of the balance, so if you lose the trade, you still can trade 99 other trades...

If you are still afraid, use 1/1000 of the balance...

I already talked about this subject previously, but it is so important to stay aware of this fact.

You can not win trading with Scared Money.

Many brokers offers trading starting 1$ (1 pip = 0.0001$), even giving you some real dollars in real live account to start with, so no reason not to trade with rested mind...
  • #270
  • Nov 5, 2007 12:50am Nov 5, 2007 12:50am
EU now:
EU PL @1.4480. Under test.
Weekly CUS is resisting well, so we have a good chance to see EU going for a beautifull down today.

EU Strategy:
Will sell 1.4525-30 if tested again targeting PL.
Will sell a bounce back of the PL that will probably break in the coming hours targeting 1.4462, 1.4445
If 1.4440 breaks, will sell more on a retrace to PL targeting 1.4420, 1.4390, 1.4365 main support. A break of this support will open 1.4260.

UJ now:
UJ is testing PL from the down side @114.80.

UJ Strategy:
1- Buy big the bounce of 114.35-50 strong support area targeting PL with 114.19 as SL
2- Buy the bounce back of PL Break targeting 115.75, 116.45, 117.20

If 114.32 breaks, it will open a down to 113.8 where we can reenter the long position with same targets.
  • #271
  • Nov 5, 2007 1:08am Nov 5, 2007 1:08am
The H4 upper channel is still holding the prices, but the CDS is now under test at PL @1.4482.
The weekly and daily CUS have been briefly break tested, but the prices have been well rejected until now.

Until 1.4525 is broken, we will very probable see a break of PL that will open the down side to 1.4410-20 first, then possibly much lower down to the daily CDS.

Here the updated chart with the 3 up channels.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071105-H1-EU.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #272
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:55am Nov 5, 2007 2:55am
Quoting haniam
EU now:
EU PL @1.4480. Under test.
Weekly CUS is resisting well, so we have a good chance to see EU going for a beautifull down today.

EU Strategy:
Will sell 1.4525-30 if tested again targeting PL.
Will sell a bounce back of the PL that will probably break in the coming hours targeting 1.4462, 1.4445
If 1.4440 breaks, will sell more on a retrace to PL targeting 1.4420, 1.4390, 1.4365 main support. A break of this support will open 1.4260.

UJ now:
UJ is testing PL from the down side @114.80.

UJ Strategy:
1- Buy big the bounce of 114.35-50 strong support area targeting PL with 114.19 as SL
2- Buy the bounce back of PL Break targeting 115.75, 116.45, 117.20

If 114.32 breaks, it will open a down to 113.8 where we can reenter the long position with same targets.
Since UJ broke 114.30 level, I have closed most of UJ position for +20 pips x Lots and secured the rest in expectation of down move towards 113.85 level to buy again
EU target 1 reached closed some positions and secured rest to resell higher
  • #273
  • Nov 5, 2007 7:20am Nov 5, 2007 7:20am
Quoting haniam
EU now:
EU PL @1.4480. Under test.
Weekly CUS is resisting well, so we have a good chance to see EU going for a beautifull down today.

EU Strategy:
Will sell 1.4525-30 if tested again targeting PL.
Will sell a bounce back of the PL that will probably break in the coming hours targeting 1.4462, 1.4445
If 1.4440 breaks, will sell more on a retrace to PL targeting 1.4420, 1.4390, 1.4365 main support. A break of this support will open 1.4260.

UJ now:
UJ is testing PL from the down side @114.80.

UJ Strategy:
1- Buy big the bounce of 114.35-50 strong support area targeting PL with 114.19 as SL
2- Buy the bounce back of PL Break targeting 115.75, 116.45, 117.20

If 114.32 breaks, it will open a down to 113.8 where we can reenter the long position with same targets.

Our two main targets have been reached. 1.4440 resistance has held, and EU EU may be about to turn bullish and testing 1.4492. If breached, will probably go up to retest 1.4505 and 1.4525.

If 1.4492 is broken, we may then buy small at the bounce of PL and sell bigger @1.4525 targeting 15-20 pips

Will sell 1.4545-50 if 1.4525 is broken for 20-25 pips.

Meanwhile, we may sell 1.4480-90 targeting again 1.4460-40 with SL 1.4496
  • #274
  • Nov 5, 2007 7:32am Nov 5, 2007 7:32am
Quoting haniam
Trading with Scared Money (SM) is the best way to loose it!
The amount is not important. It may be 1$, or 10K.

Don't trade if you are scared to lose the money in your balance...
You should not be afraid to trade the money you have in your account.
Use just a part of it. It may be a 1% of the balance, so if you lose the trade, you still can trade 99 other trades...

If you are still afraid, use 1/1000 of the balance...

I already talked about this subject previously, but it is so important to stay aware of this fact.

You can not win trading with Scared Money.

Many brokers offers trading starting 1$ (1 pip = 0.0001$), even giving you some real dollars in real live account to start with, so no reason not to trade with rested mind...

thank you very much for all your advice and they make good sense........
  • #275
  • Nov 5, 2007 7:38am Nov 5, 2007 7:38am
Quoting findcount
thank you very much for all your advice and they make good sense........
You're welcome findcount.
Happy I could help!

As for the EU, it is better not to trade at the moment, or use a tight stop, as it may turn bullish very soon. Better to wait for the news in 90 minutes and trade after when the market take decision of the way it wants to go.

As mentioned inthe previous post, a break of 1.4492 before the news may indicate the way is up!

happy trading,

Hani
  • #276
  • Edited 2:59am Nov 6, 2007 12:55am | Edited 2:59am
No important news today.
Only Bernanke speaks @18:40 GMT is to take into consideration.

EU is under way to test 1.4525-30, but very slowly.
No momentum to break the YTDH. PL @1.4475

Strategy for EU
1- Sell big 1.4520-30 with SL over 1.4550 targeting 1.4500, 1.4475
2- Buy little bounce pf PL targeting 15-20 pips
3- Sell the bounce back of PL break targeting 1.4460, 1.4440, 1.4420.

If 1.4530 breaks (Low probability at first touch), sell the new high targeting 1.4525 and close the old sell at BE
  • #277
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:06am Nov 6, 2007 1:06am
Until 114.75 and 115 is broken, we have still a bias for the down side in the 113 first. PL @114.44
I don't like to sell this currency even when it is going somehow down.
I prefer to buy it on the dips on bounces.

Strategy for UJ:
1- If you want shorting, sell a bounce of 114.75-90 targeting 114.4, 114.15, 113.85 with SL over 115.20
2- Buy a bounce of 114, 113.75 targeting 114.4, 114.75, 114.95
  • #278
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:11am Nov 6, 2007 1:11am
Quoting haniam
You're welcome findcount.
Happy I could help!

As for the EU, it is better not to trade at the moment, or use a tight stop, as it may turn bullish very soon. Better to wait for the news in 90 minutes and trade after when the market take decision of the way it wants to go.

As mentioned inthe previous post, a break of 1.4492 before the news may indicate the way is up!

happy trading,

Hani

i made a long of eur/chf @1.6700 as it seems to be bouncing off the lower band of a channel / triangle / wedge........you think i made a mistake ?

sorry if i'm bothering you since you're more into eur/usd......
  • #279
  • Nov 6, 2007 1:26am Nov 6, 2007 1:26am
Quoting findcount
i made a long of eur/chf @1.6700 as it seems to be bouncing off the lower band of a channel / triangle / wedge........you think i made a mistake ?

sorry if i'm bothering you since you're more into eur/usd......
Hi Findcount,

by following my thread from the beginning, you should know by now that I do not trade before I do my daily plan for every currency I want to trade.

So where is your plan? If you have one, so no reason to be afraid... Because you would have your entry, your safe exit and your profit target. If it does not work this time, it will another time...

Just from my view side, PL is @1.6697 and the currency made a false break and was rejected and prices bounced this level. A break of 1.6670 opens down to 1.6635

so I would have sold @1.6695-700 targeting 1.6675, 1.6660 and 1.6635

So if I bought, I would try to cover as soon as possible near break even (BE) or SL around 1.6668

But this is my point of view following my daily strategy.

Don't forget it is your money you are risking. Do a daily plan.

Safe trading,

Hani
  • #280
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:04am Nov 6, 2007 3:04am
Quoting haniam
No important news today.
Only Bernanke speaks @18:40 GMT is to take into consideration.

EU is under way to test 1.4525-30, but very slowly.
No momentum to break the YTDH. PL @1.4475

Strategy for EU
1- Sell big 1.4520-30 with SL over 1.4550 targeting 1.4500, 1.4475
2- Buy little bounce pf PL targeting 15-20 pips
3- Sell the bounce back of PL break targeting 1.4460, 1.4440, 1.4420.

If 1.4530 breaks (Low probability at first touch), sell the new high targeting 1.4525 and close the old sell at BE
The chart illustration attached shows that the break of 1.4475 PL will open down to 1.4440, 1.4410 and even 1.4375 where we may have an opportunity to go long at the 2 last levels

A break of 1.4530 have room to 1.4545-50 where it may be good to sell more with same targets

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071106-H1-EU.gif Size: 14 KB
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