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Attachments: AUD - next in line for a kick in the groin
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AUD - next in line for a kick in the groin

  • #61
  • Nov 1, 2007 11:30pm Nov 1, 2007 11:30pm
I think you got me wrong then.

I was referring to the new candle....(big red one)
It broke and closed below the previous day's low, so thats technically a breakout, with a some sort of downside bias.

I'm merely stating, that for this candle (big red one) to prove the presence of a valid downward momentum, retracements (bullish candles) for the next few bars should not exceed 50% of the bearish candle (big red one).
  • #62
  • Nov 2, 2007 7:19am Nov 2, 2007 7:19am
While the analysis I originally posted to start this thread was incorrect from a timing standpoint (although it was never intended to be a timing comment) the impact is beginning to be felt, as was seen yesterday. To re-iterate:

AUD would be the next casualty should money market spreads widen again. That was the case yesterday, seeing AUD/USD falling by 1.4%. Australian mortgage exposed banks have a lower deposit to asset ratio than Northern Rock (which has borrowed GBP22.8bln from the BOE) and are mainly funded by tapping foreign capital markets.

So AUD is top of the agenda of currencies to fall should equity markets stay under pressure which is appearing more likely.
  • #63
  • Mar 17, 2008 4:43am Mar 17, 2008 4:43am
Regardless of Dave's earlier analysis, there is some serious groin kicking happening now. I have no idea why the sudden selling in the last H4, but dear god 200 pips on a single AUDUSD candle? In a firm bull market? The ozzies must be buying .. America

And to anyone long AUDJPY over the weekend: please PM me for therapist suggestions and/or herbal medicine advice.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #64
  • Mar 17, 2008 4:46am Mar 17, 2008 4:46am
AUD may be sensitive to the unrest in Tibet.
  • #65
  • Mar 17, 2008 4:49am Mar 17, 2008 4:49am
Quoting Plutonite
Regardless of Dave's earlier analysis, there is some serious groin kicking happening now. I have no idea why the sudden selling in the last H4, but dear god 200 pips on a single AUDUSD candle? In a firm bull market? The ozzies must be buying .. America

And to anyone long AUDJPY over the weekend: please PM me for therapist suggestions and/or herbal medicine advice.
Oh and to qualify the reason for the post - I think this rather violent double top will lead to some air being lost on the pair for now. Depending on New York's reaction when it opens in a few hours, I say there's room for 300 pips south. You didn't hear me say it.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #66
  • Mar 17, 2008 4:51am Mar 17, 2008 4:51am
Quoting fierceman
AUD may be sensitive to the unrest in Tibet.
Really? My geography sucks but I thought that was a different continent? Not that a small detail like that would keep back investors of course
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #67
  • Mar 17, 2008 4:59am Mar 17, 2008 4:59am
Quoting Plutonite
Really? My geography sucks but I thought that was a different continent? Not that a small detail like that would keep back investors of course
China is one of Australia's main trading partners. Since AUD strength has been tied to some extent to the export of raw materials to feed Chinese industry, I can see unrest in China (or at least what China considers to be China) to have some negative effect on AUD. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part and may have nothing at all to do with the big move... Just an idea.
  • #68
  • Mar 17, 2008 5:09am Mar 17, 2008 5:09am
Quoting fierceman
China is one of Australia's main trading partners. Since AUD strength has been tied to some extent to the export of raw materials to feed Chinese industry, I can see unrest in China (or at least what China considers to be China) to have some negative effect on AUD. Of course, this is pure speculation on my part and may have nothing at all to do with the big move... Just an idea.
I don't think your speculation is worse or less founded than that of the traders who may have caused the move in the investment banks. You are merely speculating about their speculation/ trying to understand what it was. Seems reasonable to me. China is a major trading partner with everyone, it seems *sigh*
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #69
  • Last Post: Mar 17, 2008 5:59am Mar 17, 2008 5:59am
I do believe there was a 140 pip 5M candle indeed.

EURAUD has done me rather well, too, for a small scalp

1800 pips up, down, up, 1100 down, up.

Well well well.
230 days, 7600 pips oscillated. Now that woulda been a pair to range trade at the boundaries
Trust price. Know yourself.
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