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Trend Smasher - Profitable Mechanical Long Term Position Trading

  • #41
  • Oct 23, 2007 4:05pm Oct 23, 2007 4:05pm
For those who entered GBPCHF yesterday, now comes the big test! We are seeing a profit of over 100 pips - we all know this can go either way; into more profit, or less profit (even negative). Patience will pay off .. feel good that price is moving in the direction we intended, and go do something else!

If you tighten your stop-loss now or take profit, you will only be cheating yourself in the long run. This system was designed to take advantage of the long-term trend - which means we must give it room to breathe. Let it go - do not over-analyze...

BTW, positions were opened tonight in AUDUSD, GBPJPY and CHFJPY. These pairs are now active & ready for add-ons!

D.
  • #42
  • Oct 23, 2007 4:22pm Oct 23, 2007 4:22pm
Nice system, easy to follow and i really like the way you consider price action for entries.
  • #43
  • Oct 25, 2007 4:46pm Oct 25, 2007 4:46pm
OK buoys & ghouls,

we have our first add-on this evening. We would have had two but GBPJPY has flattened out over the last hour or two.

CHFJPY had a downtick yesterday. Today we will be ending in an uptick. We are at or about the same level as our original entry. System says to buy, so we buy!!!

Remember, 1% equity tops!!

My ATR says stoploss is at 156 (2xATR). Yours may differ!

Good luck all!

D.

This logs sole purpose is to explain the Trend Smasher system in it's entirety. If you follow my positions or enter your own based on this system, you do so at your own risk!
  • #44
  • Oct 25, 2007 5:39pm Oct 25, 2007 5:39pm
I was wondering how much back testing you have done on this system. i know we talk regularly but for everyone viewing this thread I thought we should maybe do some extensive backtesting and view the results. What do you think?? MT4 data goes back as far as 1990 as far as I can tell. What do you think. BTW I am long on both GBPJPY and also GBPCHF.
  • #45
  • Oct 26, 2007 2:41am Oct 26, 2007 2:41am
When I originally backtested this I went back about 4 years on each pair. It can be a time-consuming endeavour and at this time I personally am more concerned with the live forward test. Backtesting is great, but there's nothing like testing these things out live

D.

Quoting freed14
I was wondering how much back testing you have done on this system. i know we talk regularly but for everyone viewing this thread I thought we should maybe do some extensive backtesting and view the results. What do you think?? MT4 data goes back as far as 1990 as far as I can tell. What do you think. BTW I am long on both GBPJPY and also GBPCHF.
  • #46
  • Oct 27, 2007 1:11pm Oct 27, 2007 1:11pm
If we missed the most recent gbp/jpy buy signal, I assume we can still get in at a better price on open tomorrow?
  • #47
  • Oct 27, 2007 6:46pm Oct 27, 2007 6:46pm
Most definitely lepiricus. Price is about 100pips below our entry at the moment - definitely a better price

Let's hope GJ resumes it's usual trend soon....

D.

Quoting lepiricus
If we missed the most recent gbp/jpy buy signal, I assume we can still get in at a better price on open tomorrow?
  • #48
  • Oct 27, 2007 8:07pm Oct 27, 2007 8:07pm
Ive been meaning to ask, what do we look for as change of trends like the 6 year trend??

Quoting Daemien
Most definitely lepiricus. Price is about 100pips below our entry at the moment - definitely a better price

Let's hope GJ resumes it's usual trend soon....

D.
  • #49
  • Oct 29, 2007 8:35am Oct 29, 2007 8:35am
Hmmm.. I believe I covered this in a previous post, but just in case:

First off you will notice that the highs & lows of the MFI will start to consolidate (it's active range will narrow). You may go for a few months with no entry as it will almost reach the entry area but them rebound. Same as for exits. This is an alarm bell only at this point.

The biggest tell-tale sign is when the long-term trendline is broken. Once this happens in any kind of significant way, take that pair off of your list & wait for either a new trend to show itself, or the old trend to re-establish. In the mean-time I personally would be adding another pair to the mix.

That's about it. I hope this helps...

D.

Quoting freed14
Ive been meaning to ask, what do we look for as change of trends like the 6 year trend??
  • #50
  • Oct 29, 2007 8:40am Oct 29, 2007 8:40am
Hey all,

At this point you will notice that all entries & add-ons are quite nicely in profit. The last thing you want to do, however, is close them out. I would hope that all of you are using demos for this or, at the least, small positions in order to build confidence. This is a great system to assist in getting over those 'drawdown blues' and obsessive need to check your positions every half an hour (I have been there). Relax and let the market & system do their thing...
  • #51
  • Oct 31, 2007 8:51am Oct 31, 2007 8:51am
I am going to jump in here again with some annoying repetition (consider it 'coaching' or 'spotting')!!

At this point, for those who have been following this & adding on, we are up to around the 1500+ pip area. Nice eh?? I know that some of you have already closed out your positions (at a much lower gain), but for those who haven't, hang in there!!! How does 2000+ pips sound?? Not a guarantee, but quite possible... Wait for the exit signal and over time you will be rewarded!

D.
  • #52
  • Oct 31, 2007 9:30am Oct 31, 2007 9:30am
I am guilty Daemin. I just closed out my trades for about +1100 pips. I just wanted to get out, and then watch to see what happens with the charts from the side lines. Oh well. Green is gren tho my friend
  • #53
  • Oct 31, 2007 12:19pm Oct 31, 2007 12:19pm
I understand fully! The first time or two I traded this live I exited early more than once. The majority, if not all of them, ended up more positive and I would have cashed in quite a few more pips if I had held onto the positions to fruition.

It does take a while to get comfortable carrying this many pips. Same as in the negative - it takes a while getting comfortable sitting through drawdown.

Just remember, it's all in the head As you work through the trades, you should get more comfortable and this should become more mechanical. This is the goal!

D.


Quoting freed14
I am guilty Daemin. I just closed out my trades for about +1100 pips. I just wanted to get out, and then watch to see what happens with the charts from the side lines. Oh well. Green is gren tho my friend
  • #54
  • Oct 31, 2007 6:14pm Oct 31, 2007 6:14pm
Hello Daemien,

I am guilty too for pulling out now.

Here is the result:
1. aud/usd>>[email protected] /[email protected] /340pips
2. gbp/jpy>>[email protected] /[email protected] /623pips
3. gbp/chf>>[email protected] /[email protected] /199pips
4. chf/jpy>>[email protected] /[email protected] /150pips

Total pips 1312pips

Can we take counter trend trade?
  • #55
  • Nov 1, 2007 2:32am Nov 1, 2007 2:32am
Very nice arhemsi!!

Trendsmasher was built around the 'buy & hold' mentality. Only go with the long-term trend so no! No counter-trend trading here!

Good luck!

D.

Quoting arhemsi
Hello Daemien,

I am guilty too for pulling out now.

Here is the result:
1. aud/usd>>[email protected] /[email protected] /340pips
2. gbp/jpy>>[email protected] /[email protected] /623pips
3. gbp/chf>>[email protected] /[email protected] /199pips
4. chf/jpy>>[email protected] /[email protected] /150pips

Total pips 1312pips

Can we take counter trend trade?
  • #56
  • Nov 2, 2007 3:53am Nov 2, 2007 3:53am
Hi,

I was looking at the charts that FREED posted for GB/CH and AU/US and noticed that mine differed from them. Specially significant with AU/US, which in my case, did not generate the "go long" signal.
My charts are based on the templates that I downloaded from here, and I have not changed the settings.
Am I doing something wrong? These are charts from NorthFinance

Thanks
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd nov2.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchf nov2.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #57
  • Nov 2, 2007 10:57am Nov 2, 2007 10:57am
Quoting alcastro
Hi,

I was looking at the charts that FREED posted for GB/CH and AU/US and noticed that mine differed from them. Specially significant with AU/US, which in my case, did not generate the "go long" signal.
My charts are based on the templates that I downloaded from here, and I have not changed the settings.
Am I doing something wrong? These are charts from NorthFinance

Thanks
Hey, first of all I think you should go get the newly updated chart templates if you havent done so yet. THey are different as of about a week or 2 ago. Also make sure that as you switch pairs you are also switching templates as there are different templates for the different pairs. Besides that if you were on the daily timeframe, I dont know what to tell you, the only difference should be with the ATR as that is relative to the broker.
  • #58
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:08pm Nov 2, 2007 12:08pm
Hi Alcastro,

MFI is a volume-based indicator. As such, the volume levels you will be seeing with your trading platform will be based on the volume of your particular broker. If your broker has a reasonably large trader base, it should be reflective of the overall market - there will be subtle differences, however.

I would adjust the levels so that you are averaging at least one entry every three months historically. Exits about every 2-3...

Hope this helps!

D.

Quoting alcastro
Hi,

I was looking at the charts that FREED posted for GB/CH and AU/US and noticed that mine differed from them. Specially significant with AU/US, which in my case, did not generate the "go long" signal.
My charts are based on the templates that I downloaded from here, and I have not changed the settings.
Am I doing something wrong? These are charts from NorthFinance

Thanks
  • #59
  • Nov 2, 2007 1:54pm Nov 2, 2007 1:54pm
when will this intriguing system go long on EURAUD? It's rising from oversold and at a point of historic resistance but the template seems set up for bears only.
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  • #60
  • Nov 2, 2007 4:30pm Nov 2, 2007 4:30pm
Quoting cgldsmth
when will this intriguing system go long on EURAUD? It's rising from oversold and at a point of historic resistance but the template seems set up for bears only.
Yes EURAUD is the one exception in the group as the overall trend favours the bears more than the bulls (more of a downtrend since 2004). I have to say tho that this one pair could probably be traded both ways. The trend is definitely not as steep as the others and the trigger areas look to pan out as both buy & sell points. If you decide to pursue this or do any backtesting let us know!! I would be curious to see the results...

Daemien
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