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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #46,881
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:25pm Nov 1, 2007 6:25pm
Quoting Mysticdiver
Opps! I am dyslexic.
19499
page 1300
No, not that one. Try again.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,882
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:25pm Nov 1, 2007 6:25pm
Quoting gene22
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_wizard http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Ok, since it made lows of 1.0338 and 1.0340 respectively and then rebounded hard, I'd say that gives you some very strong credibility.

I have to admit I found the "crazy prediction" part a bit amusing at first but you got my attention now!!

I'm genuinely interested in what you have to say! That was a very, very good call.

Please come back? Or were you a time traveller from the future come to warn us??


Zoran, I'm tired of digging, this is what I found so far, will definetelly get the original post, if I ever find the damn thing, over the weekend
OK, I've just checked and my call was made on the 9th of July. You can check it by going to that site we were at yesterday... check my previous posts and you will see my call in one post and a chart in another (9th of July). I was 100 pips off the top and 100 from the bottom.... 2900 pip call (from stop) instead of 3100. Remember that I only just started with this pair at that time so it was one of my first calls. Some people found it amusing at the time!
  • #46,883
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:28pm Nov 1, 2007 6:28pm
Quoting auslanco
There will be another test of low's before 5gmt
Aus, I swear, every time you post I go back to the charts to double check for myself. Your credibility is rather high with me so, you are making me work yet again, kidding. Seriously though tomorrow is a real possibility to test the 240 area again, if that's the case then I see a relevance with the mondays time date, the scenario that I'm leaning toward though, and here the momentum indicators have no bearings, is the good NFP and a nice Friday stock market dive, the momentum was set yesterday,and tomorrow we will see continuation and panick, let's see
  • #46,884
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:36pm Nov 1, 2007 6:36pm
Quoting Zoran
OK, I've just checked and my call was made on the 9th of July. You can check it by going to that site we were at yesterday... check my previous posts and you will see my call in one post and a chart in another (9th of July). I was 100 pips off the top and 100 from the bottom.... 2900 pip call (from stop) instead of 3100. Remember that I only just started with this pair at that time so it was one of my first calls. Some people found it amusing at the time!
Ya, I would say amusing is an understatement, ok july 9th, I think you beat me again, will find the post anyway but mine was a bit later I think, I was concentrating on picking a very exact entry, I mean within a 50 to a max 100 stop loss, made my self a little present , 40% in a week with a 10% risk, too nerveracking though, don't want to do it again any time soon.
Ok from now on watch out,
I'm lazy though, your chances are good, lol
  • #46,885
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:41pm Nov 1, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting gene22
Aus, I swear, every time you post I go back to the charts to double check for myself. Your credibility is rather high with me so, you are making me work yet again, kidding. Seriously though tomorrow is a real possibility to test the 240 area again, if that's the case then I see a relevance with the mondays time date, the scenario that I'm leaning toward though, and here the momentum indicators have no bearings, is the good NFP and a nice Friday stock market dive, the momentum was set yesterday,and tomorrow we will see continuation and panick, let's see
Momentum for the current 4hr bar is bearish.. Since the 4hr bar is still below the 5msa Close there's is a high possiblity for new Low's before 5GMT. I expect a strong trend reversal after frankfurt open , Possibly new highs.

This analysis is not based on Fundies.. I heavily rely on the momentum indicator during the big news days since I find it very accurate during the high volatile times.
  • #46,886
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:52pm Nov 1, 2007 6:52pm
Quoting auslanco
Momentum for the current 4hr bar is bearish.. Since the 4hr bar is still below the 5msa Close there's is a high possiblity for new Low's before 5GMT. I expect a strong trend reversal after frankfurt open , Possibly new highs.

This analysis is not based on Fundies.. I heavily rely on the momentum indicator during the big news days since I find it very accurate during the high volatile times.
Hi Aus, thks for sharing this with us. I'm not good at projecting long TPs and the next lowest resistance I see is 236.95. Do you mind sharing with us where you think it may go to next? I saw in one of your post, you expected 237.10 (before the Asian market opened).

Thank you.
May the Pips be with You Let's Pimp some Pips!
  • #46,887
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:54pm Nov 1, 2007 6:54pm
Quoting auslanco
Momentum for the current 4hr bar is bearish.. Since the 4hr bar is still below the 5msa Close there's is a high possiblity for new Low's before 5GMT. I expect a strong trend reversal after frankfurt open , Possibly new highs.

This analysis is not based on Fundies.. I heavily rely on the momentum indicator during the big news days since I find it very accurate during the high volatile times.
All I know is that the futures for the FTSE are currently down 120 points. That is not too promising for a reversal
  • #46,888
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:55pm Nov 1, 2007 6:55pm
Quoting RookieJookie
Hi Aus, thks for sharing this with us. I'm not good at projecting long TPs and the next lowest resistance I see is 236.95. Do you mind sharing with us where you think it may go to next? I saw in one of your post, you expected 237.10 (before the Asian market opened).

Thank you.
237.20 is the target for my short trade.
  • #46,889
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:56pm Nov 1, 2007 6:56pm
238.70 short
  • #46,890
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:57pm Nov 1, 2007 6:57pm
Quoting auslanco
237.20 is the target for my short trade.
Thank you
May the Pips be with You Let's Pimp some Pips!
  • #46,891
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:00pm Nov 1, 2007 7:00pm
I closed my long at 238.85 +110 pips. Now I'll patiently wait for the next trade before bedtime.
  • #46,892
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:01pm Nov 1, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting markam
All I know is that the futures for the FTSE are currently down 120 points. That is not too promising for a reversal
bro.. a bullish daily momentum like this will drag up every single trading market known to the mankind before end of the day.
Attached Image
  • #46,893
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:01pm Nov 1, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting fxslinger
I closed my long at 238.85 +110 pips. Now I'll patiently wait for the next trade before bedtime.
nice
  • #46,894
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:04pm Nov 1, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting fxslinger
I think it's close to bounce time. I'm long at 237.75 with a 20 pip SL.
Nice chart
  • #46,895
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:05pm Nov 1, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting auslanco
bro.. a bullish daily momentum like this will drag up every single trading market known to the mankind before end of the day.
possible, we still have Dow tomorrow,big news may drag up the GJ, but for now, I think, it's still bearish. what do you think?
  • #46,896
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:06pm Nov 1, 2007 7:06pm
Quoting auslanco
Momentum for the current 4hr bar is bearish.. Since the 4hr bar is still below the 5msa Close there's is a high possiblity for new Low's before 5GMT. I expect a strong trend reversal after frankfurt open , Possibly new highs.

This analysis is not based on Fundies.. I heavily rely on the momentum indicator during the big news days since I find it very accurate during the high volatile times.
HMM, ok, I can see this as a possibility, but if we are talking purely technical, the only thing to support your claim is the momentum, PA idicates otherwise, pound had set a minor top, some retracement will follow, I don't see an extension in the pound at the moment, at least not immideately, according to time yesterday was IT, yen had reached it's minimum objective on the retacement yesterday, closed on the extreme low, momentum is bullish for tomorrow, but the monthly is berish, and since the objective had been reached I don't expect a new high. I see a confluence of factors here Aus, please tell me where is the flaw, since you are working anyway, perhaps I'm missing a piece of the puzle?!
Seriously...
  • #46,897
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:09pm Nov 1, 2007 7:09pm
There had to be retracement ....239.00!.4pm..EST quote post
Quoting turn1to100
Attachment
Quote:
Originally Posted by turn1to100 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
actually there is a goodchance for the GBP/JPY to reach fib level 239.00--240.01
  • #46,898
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:14pm Nov 1, 2007 7:14pm
so far so good
  • #46,899
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:22pm Nov 1, 2007 7:22pm
Quoting gene22
HMM, ok, I can see this as a possibility, but if we are talking purely technical, the only thing to support your claim is the momentum, PA idicates otherwise, pound had set a minor top, some retracement will follow, I don't see an extension in the pound at the moment, at least not immideately, according to time yesterday was IT, yen had reached it's minimum objective on the retacement yesterday, closed on the extreme low, momentum is bullish for tomorrow, but the monthly is berish, and since the objective had been reached I don't expect a new high. I see a confluence of factors here Aus, please tell me where is the flaw, since you are working anyway, perhaps I'm missing a piece of the puzle?!
Seriously...

Monthly is bearish indeed, This is the area I'm looking at before a massive fall. 242.50 (monthly 5sma high)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: er33.jpg Size: 34 KB
  • #46,900
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:22pm Nov 1, 2007 7:22pm
The Bank of England must look at a rate cut

Nov 2 2007 by Tomos Livingstone, Western Mail
ITH a credit crunch spreading around the world and big banks like Northern Rock proving all too vulnerable to the chilly economic breeze, it’s hardly surprising that the retail sector is nervous as Christmas approaches.
Traditionally the busiest time of the year, shops are worried that the annual spending boom will not materialise this year. Data provided by the CBI, and the verdict of the economist we interview today, show they are right to be worried.
Consumers are finding that their mortgage payments are a little higher than they were last year, and utility costs and council tax bills continue to outstrip wage inflation.
Worried about credit being more expensive, many of us will be more reluctant to use credit cards in the run-up to Christmas too. A large chunk of the economic growth we have seen in the past decade has been based on our willingness to take on debt – a willingness that seems now to be coming to an end.
It’s not all doom and gloom, of course; there will be many a bargain for the beady-eyed¸ by the sound of things. And the underlying economic indicators are sound – unemployment is low by historic standards, as is inflation, and economic growth forecasts, despite being trimmed a little by the Treasury last month, are also good.
Nevertheless, there are problems elsewhere. The housing market boom is coming to a juddering halt, and the manufacturing sector, still so crucial to the Welsh economy, has long complained that the pound is valued too highly against other currencies – making exporting Welsh goods difficult.
All of which makes a strong case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates when its monetary policy committee meets next week.
The rate was raised to 5.75% in July, and has stayed there since. It has had the impact the Bank wanted, and inflation has dropped to 1.8%, below its 2% target level.
A cut in the interest rate would provide a welcome boost to retailers, as it would free consumers to spend a little more. The housing market and the manufacturing sector would benefit too.
Yet therein lies the problem. The Bank is only meant to take into account the impact on inflation when it makes its decisions. Inflation is fine as it is, so it may decide that 5.75% interest rates are fine as they are, too.
Nevertheless we hope the Bank considers the case for a cut, as – whatever its remit letter says – they surely will.
A bad retail Christmas will be bad for the economy and will do little to lift the gloom on the high street. The Bank of England has found £23bn to bail out Northern Rock and is still coming to terms with the implications of that crisis.
There is scope for an interest rate cut, and the Bank should give it proper consideration next week.
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