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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #46,801
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:01pm Nov 1, 2007 6:01pm
I would be careful of the line of thinking that a big NFP number would be positive for GJ. Futures are still pricing in a Dec rate cut at just over 50%. I believe that a +115 number would send the Dow down, because a big number will crush hopes of a Dec. rate cut. If Dow tanks---we all know what GJ will do. The ADP number has been WAY off before, but lately it has been a pretty good indicator of NFP.
  • #46,802
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:02pm Nov 1, 2007 6:02pm
Quoting my2buoys
I even saved one of Karmo's early manually drawn Fib charts. Here it is.
u r something else m2b
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #46,803
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:07pm Nov 1, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting my2buoys
I even saved one of Karmo's early manually drawn Fib charts. Here it is.
I might have to print that one out and post it on my wall.
  • #46,804
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:11pm Nov 1, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting my2buoys
I even saved one of Karmo's early manually drawn Fib charts. Here it is.
Hahahaha

That was very funny.
  • #46,805
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:11pm Nov 1, 2007 6:11pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I would be careful of the line of thinking that a big NFP number would be positive for GJ. Futures are still pricing in a Dec rate cut at just over 50%. I believe that a +115 number would send the Dow down, because a big number will crush hopes of a Dec. rate cut. If Dow tanks---we all know what GJ will do. The ADP number has been WAY off before, but lately it has been a pretty good indicator of NFP.
I thought Feds already said dont expect a cut in Dec., that was part of the drop in dow today that with decline in consumer spending
  • #46,806
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:19pm Nov 1, 2007 6:19pm
Quoting markam
Gene, I am glad you joined this thread. You are a welcome addition.


If you had been posting earlier, I apologize. The last couple of days is the first time I recall seeing your contributions.
Markam, thank you for the kind words, I didn't post that often, sometimes I feel like it sometimes not. What I've noticed though and the reason I started posting more now, is that I get lazy and complacent lately, but having to actually do a full blown anayses helps me concentrate, because now I feel responsible for my actions and posts. It's gotten so bad that I would stop analyzing, just look at the charts, pure price action and place orders. My performance dropped significantly, I was still making money but not with the efficency that I had gotten used to. So, made a consious decision to go start working instead of just relying on my experience. Unfortunatelly it's boring, by posting here and hopefully making a contibution helps me stay focused and not bored.
BTW, don't mean to brag but if you check my first posts you'll see exact turnaround levels on all majors, posted before they happened, including that huge drop of 3000 pips, I was moving to Russia when it started, shortes all the way starting at 250, and thank God didn't have an internet connection to trade for 2 weeks after the 8th of August, left, placed the stops at +100, the price was allready significantly down, placed a "funny" limit at 221, closed the computer and forgot about it, had no choice and the profit was allready locked in. Imagine my surprise when I opened my orders, I almost s-t myself.
Anyhow, I saw you using FXCM, run, as fast as you can, if you want me to suggest some normal brokers, let me know.
  • #46,807
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:28pm Nov 1, 2007 6:28pm
Quoting karmostaji
I read no books about fibo's, I just read whatever articles I could find about fibonacci, looked at a lot of examples of how people use this tool and kept practicing myself. I don't know of any specific sites, just google and start reading.
I'm just a newbie like the majority, been trading for 1 year only
Let me just say that I've seen traders who have been at this for 5 times longer than you but are still only half your level. At your age you have the most potential that I have seen. Just don't forget me when you reach you goal.

I've found that it's not about the length of trading but more about learning the right skills. You seem to have gone a long way in a short time! Good luck to you!
  • #46,808
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:28pm Nov 1, 2007 6:28pm
The Fed never says anything outright. They said that the risks were "balanced" right now. If the sum of the data between now and Dec. is bad enough, they will cut again. The Fed Funds futures contracts are still putting the odds of a cut at just over 50%. Prior to the Fed meeting yesterday the odds of a Dec. cut were almost 90%. The drop in the Dow you saw today was the market repricing from 90 down to almost 50. A big NFP number will take us down to a Dec. futures number of around 35%, which will cause the Dow to drop some more, near the 13300 area. That is, unless panic sets in...then who knows how low it could go. I know it seems counterintuative that a strong jobs report will tank the Dow, but right now it is about the future of intrest rates.
  • #46,809
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:32pm Nov 1, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting gene22
BTW, don't mean to brag but if you check my first posts you'll see exact turnaround levels on all majors, posted before they happened, including that huge drop of 3000 pips
Sorry to be a pain, but can you point me to the post where you called the 3000 pip drop?
  • #46,810
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:39pm Nov 1, 2007 6:39pm
Good morning,

Wow.. very promosing move for the bears. However bears arnt fully awake as yet. We need atleast a spike below 236.22 (Daily5sma Low/daily 50Ema). Currently the price is sitting on the monthly 5sma . This level will be successfully broken within this month since we got the monthly momentum support.

Daily is super bullish today. I dont expect any drops below the 236.20 area. There could be a reversal during the London after 8 GMT . Todays daily candle must end at 237.85 or higher.
  • #46,811
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:42pm Nov 1, 2007 6:42pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I would be careful of the line of thinking that a big NFP number would be positive for GJ. Futures are still pricing in a Dec rate cut at just over 50%. I believe that a +115 number would send the Dow down, because a big number will crush hopes of a Dec. rate cut. If Dow tanks---we all know what GJ will do. The ADP number has been WAY off before, but lately it has been a pretty good indicator of NFP.
It is still in the uptrend,I would like to take this drop as a wave 4 unless it break through 236.78,the top of wave 1.
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  • #46,812
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:43pm Nov 1, 2007 6:43pm
could someone tell me again how to get price on the fibo lines on MT4. i know its something like %& or &% but i dont know if it had () around it or not.
thx
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #46,813
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:44pm Nov 1, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting gene22
Anyhow, I saw you using FXCM, run, as fast as you can, if you want me to suggest some normal brokers, let me know.
Hi gene,
I use FXCM as well. Opend an account with Oanda a month ago. Damn , that was a big mistake. I have tried the big 5 except Forex.com. FXCM is by far the best broker.

By the way I dont work for FXCM
  • #46,814
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:46pm Nov 1, 2007 6:46pm
Aus how low you thinkn it might go while Asian market are open
  • #46,815
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:47pm Nov 1, 2007 6:47pm
What do you think about MB Trading? No charts worth a damn, but decent response time and no deal desk.
  • #46,816
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:47pm Nov 1, 2007 6:47pm
Quoting vinesh2
Aus how low you thinkn it might go while Asian market are open

My short target is 237.20 . after that I may re-enter shorts depends on the 8hr momentum.
  • #46,817
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:50pm Nov 1, 2007 6:50pm
[quote=haliker;1694461]
Quoting auslanco
Hi gene,
I use FXCM as well. Opend an account with Oanda a month ago. Damn , that was a big mistake. I have tried the big 5 except Forex.com. FXCM is by far the best broker.
What do you think about MB Trading? No charts worth a damn, but decent response time and no deal desk.
Never tried them. untill MBT can find $5million to comply with NFA regulations I dont think I will ever try them.
  • #46,818
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:51pm Nov 1, 2007 6:51pm
Quoting my2buoys
I even saved one of Karmo's early manually drawn Fib charts. Here it is.
hahaha--that was funny bro

juts be careful today guys--bank profits along the way in any positions u take

adios
  • #46,819
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:53pm Nov 1, 2007 6:53pm
Quoting jarroo
I understand that price does not move in a straight line. My post was to Karmo and his year end prediction.

A retrace to 235.50 is possible but not probable. I like 237.50ish better. (5 sma on the weekly and daily.)

Jim
I'm getting better at this.

AUS + Karmo +Patience=

Thanks guys,

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #46,820
  • Nov 1, 2007 6:53pm Nov 1, 2007 6:53pm
I think it's close to bounce time. I'm long at 237.75 with a 20 pip SL.
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