Will Fed Do The Unexpected And Leave Rates Unchanged!!

ok here is my take on the FOMC later today.

Senario 1:

Fed cuts interest rate by 0.25 point as everyone expects then the things will continue as like today. 0.25 is the consensus.

Scenario 2:

Fed cuts interest rate by 0.50 point then the dollar will gets hammered today and then again on friday with NFP.

Scenario 3:

If Fed decides not to cut the interest rate then dollar might strengthen a bit only to be hammered again on friday with the release of Non-Farm Rolls


There will be lots of volatility around news time. So hang on to your seats and enjoy the ride while the dollar get hammered. There are NO fundamentals to suggest a dollar revival. Maybe only a period of profit taking as most indicators show overbought levels on eur/usd

US News seems good today, let's see what happens at 2:15PM EST.....

Article excerpt from this morning:

There is optimism in the air on the Street this morning, and U.S. futures are pointed higher, indicative of a positive open to the regular session of trading. Fed watchers are widely expecting another rate cute (most likely a 25-basis-point cut) to follow up last month's 50-basis point cut. However, it seems that those far fetched dreams of another 50-basis point draw down are fleeting, especially after reports yesterday that the Fed was even considering no interest-rate cut at all.

Here is some excellent reading

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_ana...2007103030925/

and also

http://www.actionforex.com/forex_ana...2007102930848/

Well... GDP did come in @ 3.9 (1st article points at "low" 3.1 as an issue).

Yep - GDP comes in higher, but the Fed has already aquiesced to Wall ST. I think it was a big mistake to lower the rate. One just has to drive around a mall on Sunday or Saturday to see consumer spending doing just fine. Foreclosures are confined to a much smaller area and pct than news media leads us to believe.
Markets are way out of line with reality now. Selling EURUSD pays a positive swap rate, and European market fundamentals are not any stronger than US, maybe even weaker. So why is Euro so strong against dollar? Could be oil prices.
Speaking of oil prices. Supply and demand are nowhere in the equation. Oil goes up because Bush calls Iran terrorist. So what. He's been doing that for the last 4 or 5 years. And why should oil companies, traders, etc. be concerned about a skirmish between Turkey and the Kurds. It's just any excuse to buy. I can't wait for big oil speculators to get their butts handed to them. And believe me, it will happen.

it seems that my view is not the same as the Fed. probably they know more then i do

I was wrong

edit : lol i can't even read a fed statement correctly ^^