US Releases-10/31/2007

OK, just wanted to get some feedback before the big day tomorrow.

1.Fed cuts rate by 25 bps, equity markets favor cut, market goes up.
Carry trade currencies go up as well, dollar drops against higher yielding.
Oil likely to spike up.

Yes, it seems this cut is pretty much priced in already but some moves are still likely, all new highs for euro and cable maybe.

2.No cut, equity markets sink, dollar sinks, and carry trades in toilet.
Oil and gold will rise.

3. Cut of 50 bps, oh boy, market takes off as well as carry trades. Dollar gets hammered against high yielders, better for the dollar/yen. New dollar lows.

I know ADP non farm, GDP and PMI figures due out earlier tom morning.
ADP - Slight bump up, dollar probally will move slightly up then retrace
GDP - Biggie here, expected slow down, dollar drop. If comes in higher than expected, with the ADP I expect dollar to rise.
PMI - Slight drop expected, dollar negative and more weakness for the dollar.




Please comment, looking to position myself, I will not trade right around news time, too crazy. Just want to see If I am understanding things, thanks in advance.

Forex Factory and all its members RULE, I love this site and all the contributions from everyone, I have learned so much and look forward to contributing my 2 cents.


Mikey

if interest rate remains at 4.75%, i see the dollar getting stronger, for how long, I don't know. Probably the GDP, NFP and the other releases will tell us.

I agree, if no cut, the dollar should strenghen quite drastically... for how long? Ask a crystal ball...

i no expert but........

i believe they won't cut the rate because of recession threat.....they will do so to rescue the Dow Jones only or if credit crunch again.

helping the banks that own the FED.........and other banks too........

USD will strengthen for maybe 2 weeks or less after being weakened lately ............

Folks..Feds are also humans and they think like we do...even if they see rosy data as released today..they will be fearfull about tommarrow...fear will take over any sane decision they make.

Cos if they don't lower the rates..they know the consequences far outweigh any possibility of a recovery...this is not the time to be super human and show we could face this by not loweing the rates...fed will play like normal being as that being a pussy in times of crisis and thats the smart thing to do

Didn't work well for the French in WWII

seems to be working for FED..everyone is happy with 0.25 cut itseems...well..we have to wait for few more weeks to see the extent of crash