EUR/JPY Trading Room

This pair has seemed to follow a 16 hour cycle very well for some time now. It is amazing the precision of the lows

First off....GF, PLEASE keep posting !

Posting 4 trades made today over approx 12 hours +/-

I was using an indicator I had come across here at FF several months back on a Forum. I think the Thread was Titled..."Bringing back sexy"....Check it out ( MY APOLOGIES IF I GOT THREAD INCORRECT )....my head a bit fuzzy, was a long day...yet I wanted to post this chart and trades for those whom wish to review over the weekend... I AM TAKING THE WEEKEND OFF!!

Hopefully the charts speak for themselves. Some may notice areas where they'd think, "hey...how come no trade there....price retraced back to 21 ema in a short term downtrend/uptrend?" Well, the answer would be.....price trend was not in agreement with my indicator or vice versa...my indicator of choice was not in agreement with price....NO use using an indicator if you are not going to follow it. Also discretion comes into play....a scalping trade is, for myself, constantly evaluated....also some get missed while working another trade.

As you can see by this chart ( 15 min ).....a longer chart would have shown less noise, and maybe kept one in a trade longer....though entry would have been different. Then again....time in all 4 trades was very quick.....so I can't complain.....Now...... my rear-end is complaining BADLY!!!

Hope all have a great weekend....any Q?'s, just ask
Fxj

UPDATE: Bringing Back Sexy - Stoch....Thread starter member.....Boxingislife

fxjarhead this for you

eurjpy 4h

long term stochastic steady above 80
short term crossed up
reverse/hidden divergence on the osma and about to cross its 0 line
entry woulda been around 159.50 but i dont think its too late to enter. it has potential to break the high and move 100 or so

The 200-day SMA could provide an important level going into Monday. I calculate it on the close and prefer the value based on regular trading days ( a la NY) rather than MT's funny schedule; right now it's at 160.36 (MT's is slightly higher); it provded pretty good support on the Feb-March dip and could provide some resistance here. Also a moderate amount of former support from various lows in the 160.45 area, plus the recent hourly peaks at that may provide resistance for short-term shorts.
From a long perspective - currently I don't like it, since taking a reasonable long seems to require a SL too wide for my tastes ATM....

From an off-the-wall-experimental-and-don't-take-this-too-seriously perspective, the pair is giving the chart I put up the other day it's first real test. (See http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...02&postcount=5) Clearly it blew through the down line drawn from the peak prior to The Fall to the first bounce; OTOH it's currently contained by the middle channel, but pushing at the upper edge (the 1 STD up line), while the ATR(10) levels are pretty similar to those of the base of the middle channel, and still much higher than the accelerated carry part (the red channel). So it's not a one way street. Yet. If I could figure out how to do the analysis using something like Cauchy distributions rather than a normal distribution approach, it could be interesting.

Thanks to FXJarhead and SMJones for their complements regarding the analysis I have posted.

I will try to keep up with this, but occasionally may find some interruptions. Thanks for your support. It's nice to know somebody finds it useful.

Marci (GF)

Hi Everyone,

Last Thursday night and Friday brought several swings up and down on this pair as the market was in confusion where to go as I surmised in my previous analysis page. From the high on 9-13, we saw it drop right back to the trend support line I had shown and break and head down to 158.8 where major support has been. This drop was precipitated by the fallout on the British bank Northern Rock. After this drop though, it immediately rebounded back up to 160 and back down again after retail sales came out in the U.S.. Once again it failed to break support at 158.8 and finished back up at 160.0. Quite a roller coaster ride and quite rangebound. While I did catch a long trade on the early AM initial back up to 160, for the most part I sat this one out.

Ok, onwards now. For the remainder of today and in to tomorrow...

Consolidation after last weeks rise still seems to be in order. However, the equities markets are looking weak for Monday and that may push things lower in the short term time frame. Trading on any of the Yen pairss lately has been well tied to the equities markets. Early morning trading and weakness on the European stock exchanges brought it down to 159.0 or so before bouncing for now which lends support to this theory of an attempted correction to last week's run. With little economic data out today, I expect the price to be in control of the technical analysts and the pressure of the stock markets. I am reluctant to make any longer term trades at this moment because we are at the 50% fib retracement from the fall of the Eur/Jpy which started in July and bottomed out in August. Call it a coin flip on which way its going now... I'm not getting in on this one, but if I had to call it, it would be tails going down. The initial fallout from the credit crisis has taken its toll, but now the repercussions will continue to be felt in the economies for some time.

Until we get a break of support below 158.8 or run above 160.4... look to stay in this range. If you like short term trades, you might be able to take some plays off of the individual 5minute trend lines.

Good luck everyone and until we get some direction on this pair, I am on the sidelines.

Marci (GF)

Would agree with GF, a coin toss for now - read: sideways .. with a negative bias. 4hr/daily would support view...FOR NOW....Fx is always evolving....

5 trades shown in the following posted chart. For review.

15 min chart scalps.

TS=Trailing Stop
SL=Stop Loss
TP=Target Price
Arrows=entry
X = exit
Vertical line=bar set up

Trade #4 was a "weak" set up, with a good downtrend...= SL hit!!

Hope this helps from a T/A view

Fxj

Posting for review

Appears sideways....with a negative bias for now.

The pair is lookingup to test a moderately strong trend line (albeit on the 15 min charts, and only a week old) currently at 159.15. Wouldn't mention it except that it has been tested a number of times and held....

Hi All,

Pretty much as we talked about yesterday, this pair has gone up and down in range. Although it is looking like it is starting to roll over a bit to the down. But, this is a good point for it to continue on upwards as well. I don't expect it to do much today until after the Fed Interest Rate release. Once that's over, then we should see our breakout.

Until that's over with, I remain on the side. Yesterday, instead of working with this pair, I took opportunites on the Aud/Jpy and the GBP/Jpy. They had much better movement, especially the G/J.

Good luck all and we'll be back with further update later today after the FOMC decision.

GF

GF - good idea, the size of the move pretty much caught me by surprise., though after the false break of the triangle early this morning + the quick move up earlier it shouldn't have. I am still watching it though against the 200-day MVA, currently around 160.55-60.

EUR/JPY broke the 160.4 point earlier today even before the Fed decision. Based upon that alone, one should have expected the move up to 162.00... but I didn't quite expect it so fast. The FOMC rate cut sent the E/J flying through the roof (along with others)... and we topped out at 162.4.

Hope everyone managed to grab some of this ride. For me, I caught a fair portion of the ride up after it came back down right after the announcement by going long at 160.5 and taking profit at 162.4. I would have done more on this pair, but I was actually more busy with the Aud/Jpy. Had a beautiful trio of trades on that pair catching nearly 250 pips all together.

Anyway, what should expect for tomorrow? I think this move clears the way for the E/J to head up to 163.25 which is next major resistance point, but I think we are going to have to fall back just a bit before that can happen. Or at least consolidate for a few hours until it meets support. This was just a huge move and some retracement will probably be experienced. Support levels are at 161.5, 160.5 and the uptrend support comes in at 159.5 currently.... but I doubt it will retreat that far, and we'll find a new uptrend line develop over the next 24 hours.

Good luck all and "May the pips be with you!"

GF

Posting Chart for review on trades made the day after the FED cut.

I for one stayed out of the markets for the FED news, took the entire day off trading.

After reviewing the Charts, from Sept 18....would seem ,on MOST pairs, T/A was moving well in advance of the announcement....only usd/jpy looked choppy to me.

Anyway , just finished up the US session....posting for review.

Take care all
Fxj

Just a couple of charts I had sent to clients earlier this evening - figured they would be useful from a wave count perspective. The second chart builds upon the first one.

Upside targets seen at 162.17 & 163.25

Dave

Last month we had a small following on this pair, but interest waned so I stopped making any regular posts for this pairing. However, I was curious as to how people felt about the Eur/Jpy.

For me, this is one of my favorite JPY pairs to make consistent returns. How do you feel about it. Would you like to see further discussion, or do you think we could have better feedback if we take it out of the 1kt forum and move it to the general membership forum?

Thoughts, ideas?

GirlFlyer

I continue to trade it. I just suck at analysis, so I generally do not post observations about the future. It has been very profitable for me. I prefer it to UJ or GJ. More steady.

I love any pair that can steadily rise 1700 pips in 2 months. I think your analysis is good and I enjoy your posts. I think you have the power to move this out to the forum. Once it grows to a few thousand posts and fills up with goofy commnets like "go EURJPY!" or "BOJ sucks" and charts with 20 lines and anohter 20 indicators on it your valued opinion will be lost.

Is it going up or down? Another 100 pips or so testing 168 may be? Hit 168.91 before reversal?

168.91? No guessing... Just following the price...

Bust up through 4h R/line what be nice for this pair..