AUD - next in line for a kick in the groin | Page 2 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Variable Window and Line By Line Learning 4 replies

Help to edit day open line to week open line ! 11 replies

Yesterday closing line and Today Opening Line Indicator 0 replies

rsi crossing the 20 line and the 80 line 0 replies

hwo to get rid of teh Buy line and Sell line 2 replies

Attachments: AUD - next in line for a kick in the groin
Exit Attachments

AUD - next in line for a kick in the groin

  • #21
  • Sep 28, 2007 5:08pm Sep 28, 2007 5:08pm
Have you guys looked at trading FX options on the ISE? I've traded a few and have been pretty happy with the product. The nice thing about them is that you don't have to open a futures account to trade them since they trade like an equity and you know they are fairly priced and regulated, unlike fx broker options.
  • #22
  • Sep 29, 2007 12:56pm Sep 29, 2007 12:56pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Have you guys looked at trading FX options on the ISE?
i dont trade FX options, thats why i was looking for more info from dave. last time i looked at the market (about a year ago) the spreads were robbery. what kind of spreads are you seeing from ISE in terms of % of position? got any screenies you can post of bid/ask?

btw, i the best place i know to trade options is on high volume stocks and stock indices. crazy liquidity and tight spreads, what more could a trader ask for
Relax and be happy.
  • #23
  • Sep 29, 2007 4:13pm Sep 29, 2007 4:13pm
Quoting merlin
btw, i the best place i know to trade options is on high volume stocks and stock indices. crazy liquidity and tight spreads, what more could a trader ask for
And that's what I was saying earlier... it just doesn't make sense to trade options on anything else... Even futures... why trade options on futures when you can trade multiple contract expirys and futures itself is very liquid. I suppose corn or cocoa contracts wouldn't be as liquid, but still...

Indices is where it's at with options -- lower risk...
Mr. Trend
  • #24
  • Sep 29, 2007 6:38pm Sep 29, 2007 6:38pm
What is the favourite Free Platform that has Bot Ability and includes Indicies?

Sorry, but I have only tried a couple of free platforms and none of them offer Indicies.
  • #25
  • Oct 1, 2007 7:12am Oct 1, 2007 7:12am
Quoting merlin
i dont trade FX options, thats why i was looking for more info from dave. last time i looked at the market (about a year ago) the spreads were robbery. what kind of spreads are you seeing from ISE in terms of % of position? got any screenies you can post of bid/ask?
Here's a screen shot of the front month Euro. Everything is quoted and cash settled in USD terms so you have to think backwards on this one: USDEUR

The spreads for ATM front month options are a dime. You can always try to split it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1junk.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #26
  • Oct 1, 2007 11:07am Oct 1, 2007 11:07am
Quoting Bemac
What is the favourite Free Platform that has Bot Ability and includes Indicies?
what is bot ability?
Relax and be happy.
  • #27
  • Oct 1, 2007 11:11am Oct 1, 2007 11:11am
Quoting philmcgrew
Here's a screen shot of the front month Euro. Everything is quoted and cash settled in USD terms so you have to think backwards on this one: USDEUR

The spreads for ATM front month options are a dime. You can always try to split it.
oh wow you are getting that through TS?!? thats my preferred platform! i could have swore i tried to pull it up, i think i was having a problem with my opra data because its showing fine now.

yeah the spreads arent half bad

but i hate when TS doesnt give us the IV data

thanks a million for the enlightenment phil!
Relax and be happy.
  • #28
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:59am Oct 22, 2007 6:59am
A few weeks ago (when I started this thread) I had mentioned that AUD was likely to come under pressure if the whole housing/credit issue was to be revisited. After last weeks results in all markets, these concerns have re-surfaced. As such, AUD may well be due to some weakness. Technically, the pieces are in place and the bullet points below add another leg supporting a bearish AUD outlook.

- Recent CFTC data on IMM speculative positions showed another sharp increase in AUD net longs for the week ending October 16th (55.6k from 49.1k).

- The spread between AUD 3mth Libor and the cash rate signalling ongoing liquidity concerns. Further pressure on funding would push AUD lower.
  • #29
  • Oct 22, 2007 7:09am Oct 22, 2007 7:09am
Quoting Dave Floyd
- Recent CFTC data on IMM speculative positions showed another sharp increase in AUD net longs for the week ending October 16th (55.6k from 49.1k).
Dave, can you explain this a bit? Are you saying that the specs are usually wrong or that they have no money left to spend buying the AUD?
  • #30
  • Oct 22, 2007 7:27am Oct 22, 2007 7:27am
Quoting Dave Floyd
A few weeks ago (when I started this thread) I had mentioned that AUD was likely to come under pressure if the whole housing/credit issue was to be revisited. After last weeks results in all markets, these concerns have re-surfaced. As such, AUD may well be due to some weakness. Technically, the pieces are in place

Just wanted to throw up a chart in the hope that I won't get smacked around by every FA person in this room...but ONE chart is allowed, right? Look, I even left out fibs, trendlines, MAs, everything everyone hates so much...just the bar and two teeeny-weeny s/r lines.


Here's to a crashing DJI, carry, exotics... ;p

(P.S. I think Soultrader just posted a 4h chart saying something along the lines of uptrend ending I believe, so yay for trader opinion confluence )
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #31
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:12pm Oct 25, 2007 6:12pm
what just happened to this pair : aud/usd. why the spike?
  • #32
  • Oct 25, 2007 7:25pm Oct 25, 2007 7:25pm
bmw: no idea, just random movement, no main drivers in the market today.

In the spirit of agreeing with this thread sentiment (and giving some profits back to the market ) I am shorting AUDUSD. I do not defend this position, I just feel like a little adventure and the pair has risen considerably over the past few days, giving it ample room to fall. Here's to folly and camaraderie
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #33
  • Oct 25, 2007 7:37pm Oct 25, 2007 7:37pm
i am with you and have taken a couple shorts.
  • #34
  • Oct 26, 2007 1:18am Oct 26, 2007 1:18am
It's funny, the pair completely blasts the bearish setup, invalidating it and according to higher highs is trending up strongly and that same day both of you short it

I already lost my shorts trying to stem the tide even on a valid entry, I think the only drops now will be pullbacks again unless we get another setup...of which I currently see none.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #35
  • Oct 26, 2007 5:28am Oct 26, 2007 5:28am
I have to agree with seekinglight on this one. What on earth gave you a signal to go short? You aren't going to see 2KT by shorting trends like that.

If you have a chart or anything else to justify your actions to those of us who thought you could trade I'm sure we would enjoy seeing it.
  • #36
  • Oct 26, 2007 9:41am Oct 26, 2007 9:41am
Quoting Mr Trend
Merlin, you should read In The House of Money, which is a book on fund managers... there are a few in that book that think IV is BS when buying options... Read it and see what they think about being long gamma...

Personally, I really like options and have had mild success with them. But I only use them on synthetic plays on indices or I'll even sell naked puts, but only on indices in order to reduce my risk...
I was sifting thru the book and voila...i read ur comments. This anonymous guy who strategised on long gamma. I'll have to read the rest of it before i can make some inputs. just had an 'ooooh' moment when i read ur post
  • #37
  • Oct 26, 2007 9:54am Oct 26, 2007 9:54am
i find that teory very usefull...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=52994

thx
its just money
  • #38
  • Oct 26, 2007 10:53am Oct 26, 2007 10:53am
LOL @ responses. I shorted sans a signal, sadly, because we were nearing a previous top. Was expecting either an immediate turanround or the top to hold. The top didn't hold. I lost 34 pips. Hand me a napkin. *sniff*

And I'm out next week of all USD related pairs (Unless a beautiful setup occurs of course) because the screens look very very ugly . Have a great weekend.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #39
  • Oct 26, 2007 11:08am Oct 26, 2007 11:08am
Quoting Plutonite
LOL @ responses. I shorted sans a signal, sadly, because we were nearing a previous top. Was expecting either an immediate turanround or the top to hold. The top didn't hold. I lost 34 pips. Hand me a napkin. *sniff*

And I'm out next week of all USD related pairs (Unless a beautiful setup occurs of course) because the screens look very very ugly . Have a great weekend.
Sorry if I sounded harsh, it wasn't very nice of me to say that and I admit as much after waking up. Previous highs are supposed to be broken in trending markets.

I am not picking on you (scouts honor) but why do you think the USD will be ugly in the coming week?
  • #40
  • Oct 26, 2007 2:19pm Oct 26, 2007 2:19pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Sorry if I sounded harsh, it wasn't very nice of me to say that and I admit as much after waking up. Previous highs are supposed to be broken in trending markets.

I am not picking on you (scouts honor) but why do you think the USD will be ugly in the coming week?
Not the USD itself, just the price action, because like you said there is some serious trending going on , the bulls aren't letting up on either Euro or GBP due to bad US fundies last week, so we are in a situation where I want to short but I can't because I don't have signals either way. It's all bound to come crashing down, I'm just waiting. Meanwhile I have a GBPCHF buy order that's looking promising (check your H4 charts).

And phil, stop apologizing dammit! I love it when you're harsh, wouldn't have your comments any either way. It was a stupid trade, like I said, I'm sometimes overly adventurous.

What is your take on next week? Anything interesting on your charts?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
0 traders viewing now