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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #7,201
  • Oct 25, 2007 2:35am Oct 25, 2007 2:35am
Quoting raczekfx
My sincere apologies Ticki. I'll try not to make any comments based on what I see or think in this thread. They belong to my journal...
It was indeed very profitable pin.. Many, many more pips to you.
Hi Rac,
Please continue to comment on charts in this thread. Yiou are one of the most experienced traders and although not everyone trades in your style, any insight into the workings of you thoughts on setups is invaluable.

Just my 2 pips,
Ian
  • #7,202
  • Edited 4:42am Oct 25, 2007 3:56am | Edited 4:42am
There are many steps to becoming a successful trader. One of them is gaining confidence in your trades.

Here is some advice for anyone that wants to trade price action with confidence. I know many of you already do this since Jim has advised doing it before.

Draw the pivot points on your chart and wait for the price to react with them.

For a long while I had my charts clean of all lines and I simply looked at the markets each night and took note of the ones that had good looking pins (long noses, small bodies etc).

Once I had found a pin (or several for that matter) I would start looking to see if this price aligned with any pivot areas. So I would start drawing in the fibs and the S/R pivots around the price action.

However, with this approach there is the possibility that you may be "fitting" areas to your pin (sometimes subconsciously) as in you find yourself saying: "right let's draw a fib down from this high...hmm no it doesn't line up very well....now lets try this high....hmmm no that doesn't work either, price is between the 38 and the 50 in no mans land....now let's try this high area...ok fair enough it's not really the high its more like a high within consolidation but hey it lines up wonderfully with the 61....yes this looks good".

I often found myself doing this with S/R. Of course I didn't do it intentionally but it's hard to prevent your eye from being drawn to the nose of the pin and then looking left and seeing a line or a zone where there perhaps isn't one...

So now what I do, is I put on the daily pivots on each chart. I use the ones that are obvious. If you have to look harder than ten or twenty seconds, most likely it's not a good S/R level. Then I go through and do the same on the hourly TF. Then I save the lines and close the chart.

I then re-open them every hour and once at the end of each day and wait to see if the price has come to ME.

When I get a pin that touches a pre-drawn line almost to the very pip, I get strong confidence in the trade. Why shouldn't I? I have analysed the market and drawn on a pivot and the market has shown me that at least temporarily, I have been proved right. Once the pin is then triggered it means price is still going in my favour.

Last night this happened on Crude. The price retraced to my pivot point and then it formed a pin. So I went long. This has moved more than 3 times the risk already. If you look left to the last pin (at almost exactly the same level) you will see the last trade I did which I talked about yesterday. Once again I got a pin at a pre-drawn level.

Please note - the lines on my chart may not look good to you. They are drawn from looking at more data that you cannot see on this chart. Having said that, it is also important to remember that pivots are largely subjective anyway.
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  • #7,203
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:07am Oct 25, 2007 6:07am
Hi,
I really liked your last post. I have to say its the first one I have really enjoyed in a while, you gave good sound advice without mentioning gut feelings and instincts and I think everyone can get something out of a post like that. Sometimes I find what you say hard to follow and I really think you should start a journal, so we can follow you and your own wizard strat. You have really made something special out of J16 and its great, and its your own particular interpretation of Jims teachings. Why dont you give a journal a shot? Post a link as your sign off ...Im sure we would all enjoy reading it, take care, Raz
Never say never.
  • #7,204
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:55am Oct 25, 2007 6:55am
Quoting razldazl
Hi,
I really liked your last post. I have to say its the first one I have really enjoyed in a while, you gave good sound advice without mentioning gut feelings and instincts and I think everyone can get something out of a post like that. Sometimes I find what you say hard to follow and I really think you should start a journal, so we can follow you and your own wizard strat. You have really made something special out of J16 and its great, and its your own particular interpretation of Jims teachings. Why dont you give a journal a shot? Post a link as your sign off ...Im sure we would all enjoy reading it, take care, Raz
Thanks Razl - your post means a lot to me. I know I have been prone to getting a bit carried away in here. I think my biggest problem as a trader is my ego. Once I have had a few profitable trades back to back I start thinking I can call the market every time. I start approaching trades in terms of "gut instinct" or "feeling" and most times I do, the market gives me a good, stern kick.

This can be exacerbated by someone asking your opinion on a trade that doesn't have any particularly noteworthy PA and asking you: "what do you think?" or "Where do you feel this will go"? These people want an opinion, they don't want to hear you say "I don't know - there is nothing there that gives me a clue".

Usually, when I start feeling before I have seen anything concrete in the way of price action, I end up wrong. With this in mind, everytime I get a gut feeling, I try and stay on the sidelines in my account but invariably get in here and start talking about it

With regards to a journal, this is an idea I keep toying with. I know that many people are inclined to be influenced in their trades by journals. Most of you that post in here seem very clear headed but there are others that will ask you what you are doing and then make a decision based on how you answer or what you write. Also I took Mikes comments about how a trader that trades in my way will probably blow up sooner or later and I took that to heart a bit. I don't want to start a journal and then lose it all. So I have decided to get a bit more time under my belt and run my account up to a decent size and when I look statistically stronger, I will hopefully start one.

Thanks again Raz and all the best to you and your trading.

Tom
  • #7,205
  • Oct 25, 2007 8:08am Oct 25, 2007 8:08am
Guys, u might want to take a look on the DAX
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #7,206
  • Oct 25, 2007 9:50am Oct 25, 2007 9:50am
Wiz I only said what I said based on the % you risk per trade. Which last you told me was sometimes 10%+. SCARY! It was never on your analytical skills. They have and always will be top notch. Risking 1/10 of your bankroll on one trade can just put yourself into a hole no matter how good your analysis is. Simply b/c the market can't be 100% predicted, not even if your Mr. Buffet. I just don't want to come to the computer one day and see you had a few bad trades wipe you out. No one here does, you are extremely valued. Believe me I know what it is like to feel limited by your account size, but I just don't know if it is worth the gamble. I have also said though it isn't MY money so I would never ever tell you what to do. Just looking out for a friend. I can't protect you from lighting tho your on your own :
  • #7,207
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:17am Oct 25, 2007 11:17am
Here's a chart for you folks to have a look at.
Decent looking USDCHF Buy Pin at swing low.
At first glance, some people might see it and take it cuz it looks ok.

But you can discuss why or why not you would take this.
Personally, I won't for a few reasons. Against a strong trend, T/L resistance near by etc etc.
Now this might turn out to be a great trade and I'll look like an ass but I just want some conversation to get going.
As well as for the newer people to this thread or Forex, to always remember and look at the big picture. Not only what's in front of you at the moment.

(sorry I'm kinda bored)
Tom

PS: This might be good for some pips (say to the T/L) but because I look for large reward trades I tend to not enter trades where I feel price has many obstacles.
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  • #7,208
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:45am Oct 25, 2007 11:45am
Tom, I agree with your assessment about if you only look for price action first, you will most often try to fit other TA around this area to take the trade. You are also correct when you said instead you set up your PPZ areas and then wait for price to come to you. I have found this to work the best in my opinion. My biggest problem is still trusting my own skills enough to take more of my demo trades in my live account. This will come over time and with more years of experience in this market. I also need to get better at trading what I see and not what I think. I have on many occassions said I don't see how this pair can do this, and sure enough it does it. I was wondering on your Oil chart how you came up with some of the lines. I believe you said that it is a combination of different things like fibs, PPZ's and possibly MA's. Could you share a little bit more about how you found those areas. Thanks
  • #7,209
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:47am Oct 25, 2007 11:47am
can someone explain to me what a pin bar by proxy is ? I understand what a regular pin bar is. I've searched this thread but haven't found a definition for proxy pin yet. thanks in advance
  • #7,210
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:52am Oct 25, 2007 11:52am
Hey Tom,
just fyi, there is a similar looking pin on eud.
  • #7,211
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:57am Oct 25, 2007 11:57am
Quoting mbqb11
Wiz I only said what I said based on the % you risk per trade. Which last you told me was sometimes 10%+. SCARY! It was never on your analytical skills. They have and always will be top notch. Risking 1/10 of your bankroll on one trade can just put yourself into a hole no matter how good your analysis is. Simply b/c the market can't be 100% predicted, not even if your Mr. Buffet. I just don't want to come to the computer one day and see you had a few bad trades wipe you out. No one here does, you are extremely valued. Believe me I know what it is like to feel limited by your account size, but I just don't know if it is worth the gamble. I have also said though it isn't MY money so I would never ever tell you what to do. Just looking out for a friend. I can't protect you from lighting tho your on your own :
Mike, I would agree that trading 10%+ on any one trade at one single time is not good MM. But I would also say that if you have identified a trending pair which usually comes from one weak currency vs. a strong currency (USD/CAD), then over time you can build your position size in that pair up to more then 10%+ very easily if market conditions stay tame. This hasn’t been the case for some time because of the volatility of the credit markets. Also if you end up having 5 or 10 different entries and now none of them are at risk of loss, then this is ultimately what you want to do. Not many people do this I think. A lot of the time you don’t have to trade every pair under the sun but find the best 4 or 5 pairs and get to know them the most. Then you just set up your TA and wait for price action to show you something is there. I know you know all this but I chose this time to say these things. I much like seekinglight usually write things for myself as well as everyone else. Thanks
  • #7,212
  • Oct 25, 2007 12:12pm Oct 25, 2007 12:12pm
Moneybags, I too would agree that taking this trade would be against the strong downtrend and I have a similar set of rules to yours I would imagine. With that being said this kind of set-up goes back to what I said about trading what you see and not what you think. That pin bar could work out very nicely. However, you should ask yourself if there are better looking trades out there that are going with there overall trends to consider instead. But there is decent room to the major TL and you can't predict that the TL will hold. It could break the TL and then you are in a very nice looking trade going up. For me if you are trading against the overall trends then I already reduce my lots and would look for very good set-ups with fibs, PPZ and MA confluence before I consider this type of counter-trend trade. If you want my opinion the best set-up for this trade was when it bounced back off the 1880/1900 area and started down again. That would have been with the major trend, check one, hit two areas of fib confluence, check two, I believe weekly and monthly pivot points had numbers around this area, check three, Big MA's around there, check four and then you could see if you looked left on the 4H and daily charts that this area was a previous consolidation region. So to make a long story short playing with the overall trend seems to allow for more check marks and a higher winning percentage. These are just my opinions. I hope this helps. Thanks
  • #7,213
  • Oct 25, 2007 12:15pm Oct 25, 2007 12:15pm
On a very off topic note here, does anyone know why I can't get spaces between my paragraphs anymore? When I post something now it just lumps everything together. I will put two blank spaces in after this statement and it won't show up that way. It just takes them out somehow. Sorry for asking something this stupid. Maybe someone else is having this problem to. Thanks
  • #7,214
  • Oct 25, 2007 12:26pm Oct 25, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting Wall_Street
On a very off topic note here, does anyone know why I can't get spaces between my paragraphs anymore? When I post something now it just lumps everything together. I will put two blank spaces in after this statement and it won't show up that way. It just takes them out somehow. Sorry for asking something this stupid. Maybe someone else is having this problem to. Thanks
No.......no other person is having this problem. It is only you


I don't know either.
  • #7,215
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:25pm Oct 25, 2007 1:25pm
Quoting Wall_Street
On a very off topic note here, does anyone know why I can't get spaces between my paragraphs anymore? When I post something now it just lumps everything together. I will put two blank spaces in after this statement and it won't show up that way. It just takes them out somehow. Sorry for asking something this stupid. Maybe someone else is having this problem to. Thanks
Try and have a look into your personal settinggs for ForexFactory. Under "Edit Options" scroll down to the bottom ("Miscellaneous Options") and check if you have "full WYSIWYG" for message editor interface selected.

Hope that helps
RM
  • #7,216
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:30pm Oct 25, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting Wall_Street
Mike, I would agree that trading 10%+ on any one trade at one single time is not good MM. But I would also say that if you have identified a trending pair which usually comes from one weak currency vs. a strong currency (USD/CAD), then over time you can build your position size in that pair up to more then 10%+ very easily if market conditions stay tame. This hasn’t been the case for some time because of the volatility of the credit markets. Also if you end up having 5 or 10 different entries and now none of them are at risk of loss, then this is ultimately what you want to do. Not many people do this I think. A lot of the time you don’t have to trade every pair under the sun but find the best 4 or 5 pairs and get to know them the most. Then you just set up your TA and wait for price action to show you something is there. I know you know all this but I chose this time to say these things. I much like seekinglight usually write things for myself as well as everyone else. Thanks
Building up positions that are risk less, and going in risking 10% is completely different. I am talking about from the shoot risking upwards of 10%. You are speaking of something different
  • #7,217
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:54pm Oct 25, 2007 1:54pm
Quoting moneybags
Here's a chart for you folks to have a look at.
Decent looking USDCHF Buy Pin at swing low.
At first glance, some people might see it and take it cuz it looks ok.



(sorry I'm kinda bored)
Tom

PS: This might be good for some pips (say to the T/L) but because I look for large reward trades I tend to not enter trades where I feel price has many obstacles.
looks like we won't have to make that decision, no break
  • #7,218
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:57pm Oct 25, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting mbqb11
Building up positions that are risk less, and going in risking 10% is completely different. I am talking about from the shoot risking upwards of 10%. You are speaking of something different
This is what I understood you meant too.
Adding to an existing position and opening a trade with 10% risk right from the start is different.
Opening a single trade that's risking 10% of your account is crazy in my books.(personal opinion of course) A few bad trades and your account is mangled.
  • #7,219
  • Oct 25, 2007 2:21pm Oct 25, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting mbqb11
Wiz I only said what I said based on the % you risk per trade. Which last you told me was sometimes 10%+. SCARY! It was never on your analytical skills. They have and always will be top notch. Risking 1/10 of your bankroll on one trade can just put yourself into a hole no matter how good your analysis is. Simply b/c the market can't be 100% predicted, not even if your Mr. Buffet. I just don't want to come to the computer one day and see you had a few bad trades wipe you out. No one here does, you are extremely valued. Believe me I know what it is like to feel limited by your account size, but I just don't know if it is worth the gamble. I have also said though it isn't MY money so I would never ever tell you what to do. Just looking out for a friend. I can't protect you from lighting tho your on your own :
No Mike you are right and I really appreciate you looking out for me. I value your input and I know that everyone else here does too. I've cut my risk down after what you said and I feel much more comfortable. Thanks dude.
  • #7,220
  • Oct 25, 2007 2:27pm Oct 25, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting Wall_Street
On a very off topic note here, does anyone know why I can't get spaces between my paragraphs anymore? When I post something now it just lumps everything together. I will put two blank spaces in after this statement and it won't show up that way. It just takes them out somehow. Sorry for asking something this stupid. Maybe someone else is having this problem to. Thanks
Hitting the return key twice. Putting two spaces in will not change the formating, hitting the return key twice

will
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