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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #181
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:27am Oct 24, 2007 7:27am
Quote
Hi Lee,

I would advise you to always work from up to down.

Looking at weekly once or twice a week to see what’s happening, on daily once or twice a day to check where we are, drawing trendlines and Fibonacci levels as needed.

But trading from the daily TF is difficult in the beginning.

H4 is a great time frame to follow the market without the need to stick to your PC.

Lower trendlines are dangerous to trade in the beginning.

I use all timeframes to trade, depending on my 'humor', on the market and on the time of the day.

But I would advise you not to focus on more than 2 TF, choosing them as you feel comfortable with. In your choice you can select for example H4 as your leading TF and H30 as your entry TF for more precision.

I use sometimes M1, but it is dangerous and I would not advise you to go into less than M15 to start with.

Read again post#7 for a Top down analysis using EU.

Don't jump too quickly into trading, but don't stay for ever watching.

Use a live account that would have very small lot size to work with, like 1$ for example (1 pip = 0.0001$) so you move away the emotion problem, then grow slowly the lot size as you become successful in your trades. Many borkers offers this possibility, and some for free.

Happy trading,

Hani

Hi Hani

Thank you for the advise. I will trade a live account again soon but at the moment I am taking a breather after having blown my previous account.

Regards,
Lee
  • #182
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:33am Oct 24, 2007 7:33am
Quoting DaTrader
Thanks Haniam! You've got plenty of fans, please keep posting!!
Welcome DaTrader to the thread!

Plenty of fans? Will I become a super star?
Well I got no stars in my rating yet! Where are my plenty fans
I am glad my posts can help.

Happy trading.

Hani
  • #183
  • Oct 24, 2007 8:14am Oct 24, 2007 8:14am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani

Thank you for the advise. I will trade a live account again soon but at the moment I am taking a breather after having blown my previous account.

Regards,
Lee
Don't worry Lee. I blew several accounts in the past before learning what Money Management does mean. This is part of your 'tuition' fees.

I will abord this subject in future posts.

I mailed you two links where you can go and register with 2 brokers for a live account for free. By following the links, you will get some real dollars inside you can trade your account. Use them carefully as if they were from your hard earnings.

Happy careful trading,

Hani
  • #184
  • Oct 24, 2007 8:51am Oct 24, 2007 8:51am
Quoting haniam
Pivot level today is @1.4237.
It has not yet being tested today

A sell setup can be @1.4258 and 1.4265 targeting 1.4240 with SL @1.4280-90. The P/L ration @1.4258 is not very good, but the pression is down so it may not reach 1.4265 for a better sell. This scenario is void if 1.4240 is tested first.

Then we may see a test of 1.4290, 1.4315 where would get another sell entry targeting 1.4240, 1.4190, 1.4145 and 1.4090 with a SL @1.4360-65

If these level are not reached, and 1.4235 is broken before, then I will sell the break bounce back with same targets

Happy pips harvesting to all!

hani
Trade 2 Sold @1.4260 closed @1.4250 for +10 pips
Reason: On support level, before the news

Will sell back on higher levels

Speculators are betting on worst than expecting data in 10 minutes and putting the pressure on the buy side.

May reach 1.4290, 1.4315 if bad data where I would get another sell entry targeting 1.4240, 1.4190, 1.4145 and 1.4090 with a SL @1.4360-65
  • #185
  • Oct 24, 2007 9:51am Oct 24, 2007 9:51am
We know that bad news should take EU up. But we noticed 45 minutes ago bad news and EU goes down. Why?

Well, because the bad news was already over discounted into the price, speculators, encouraged by BDs, hoping for worst news. Well the news was bad, bad not as bad as the prices went up, so if it could not go up more, speculators will start take profit and Eu goes down!

Already sold 3 lots
Trade 3 sold @1.4247
Trade 4 sold @1.4249
Trade 5 Sold @1.4232

Targeting 1.4225 and 1.4215
  • #186
  • Oct 24, 2007 10:22am Oct 24, 2007 10:22am
Quoting haniam
We know that bad news should take EU up. But we noticed 45 minutes ago bad news and EU goes down. Why?

Well, because the bad news was already over discounted into the price, speculators, encouraged by BDs, hoping for worst news. Well the news was bad, bad not as bad as the prices went up, so if it could not go up more, speculators will start take profit and Eu goes down!

Already sold 3 lots
Trade 3 sold @1.4247
Trade 4 sold @1.4249
Trade 5 Sold @1.4232

Targeting 1.4225 and 1.4215
Trade 3 sold @1.4247 closed @1.4227 for +20 pips
Trade 4 sold @1.4249 closed @1.4226 for +23 pips
Trade 5 Sold @1.4232 closed @1.4227 for +5pips

Reason: Hard fight at this support level. Possible bounce that will permit another sell.

Just after closing, the support level was broken and EU down 20 more pips!
Well not a big deal. Hope you made lot of pips too!
Will make lot of other pips later
  • #187
  • Oct 24, 2007 12:11pm Oct 24, 2007 12:11pm
I had 5 trades today for a total of +27+10+20+23+5 = +85 pips

A beautiful trade I missed while I was out was a sell back at a bounce of pivot level @1.4235 at 9:30 GMT for 25 pips.

Tomorrow a new opportunities to short the EU
  • #188
  • Edited 2:53am Oct 25, 2007 1:32am | Edited 2:53am
My pivot point for today is 1.4239, just 2 pips more than yesterday.

I sold overnight 4 lots and got +20 pips

The down scenario is still in play, even if an attempt to the highs is being tried for the third day.

So we have a resistance @1.4278 which constitutes a first barrier defensefollowed by 1.4290.

1- A first setup for short term is to sell now @1.4265-70 targeting 1.4240 with SL 1.4282 (I will use 1.4295, but I would not advise to do so as I do not use hard stops, my oney management and my account allow me to accept bigger swings)
Until 1.4278 or 1.4225 are broken, we are in a trading range and market is wondering where it will be going

2- A second setup for a mid term is to sell now targeting 1.4190 with SL @1.4295

3- A third setup for long term is to sell 1.4285 targeting 1.4080 with SL @1.4265. If 1.4355 is broken and SL not hit, we close the position at a level that is lower trying to break even.

Happy trading to all
  • #189
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:45am Oct 25, 2007 1:45am
The EU is being very bullish now and is trying to challenge 1.4290
If broken it will go higher to test 1.4315 where I will sell again.

Trade 1: Sold @1.4273
Trade 2: Sold @1.4279
Trade 3: Sold @1.4285
Trade 4: Sold @1.4286

Stop losses around 1.4290-95
targets 20 pips and 1.4240

Will close first 2 trades soon when conditions are optimal
  • #190
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:46am Oct 25, 2007 1:46am
lol, nice risk taker!

i have promised myself not to trade more eu for some time.
basically the pair in my opinion has just gotten insane and is reacting strangely bad.

in 1 side, we have some speculators buying tons of euros cause they say is the new world currency and blah blah blah. + usa enemies like iran and venezuela dumping dollars when there is an ocassion.

in the other hand, now china who was secretly dumping dollars, after the G7 didnt make an agreement, there are rumors that they are helping the dollar cause they probably now we are near december and they gonna burn as well if dollar fall too fast.


did you notice what happened yesterday?
bad bad news from usa, and sudenly the dollar started gaining value when many investors started longing. some says, equities, ok also we are close to 31oct rate fed decision and dollar standing still firm and making bull attempts?

something else is happening besides curtains.

just hope the best for you and hope you dont get burn or caught in a trade with this crazy pair.
  • #191
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:57am Oct 25, 2007 1:57am
Quoting haniam
The EU is being very bullish now and is trying to challenge 1.4290
If broken it will go higher to test 1.4315 where I will sell again.

Trade 1: Sold @1.4273
Trade 2: Sold @1.4279
Trade 3: Sold @1.4285
Trade 4: Sold @1.4286

Stop losses around 1.4290-95
targets 20 pips and 1.4240

Will close first 2 trades soon when conditions are optimal
BD do a quick strike again!
This is what is typically called a Bull trap
They will let you think prices are going up and you go buying 'The break', then the prices go in opposite direction very quickly taking stops away for scalpers and short term traders.

Trade 1: Sold @1.4273 closed @1.4259 for +14 pips
Trade 2: Sold @1.4279 closed @1.4259 for +20 pips
Trade 3: Sold @1.4285 closed @1.4259 for +26 pips
Trade 4: Sold @1.4286 closed @1.4256 for +30 pips

Will sell back higher with SL @1.4295

Beware the BD bull traps!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 071025-EUBullTrap.jpg Size: 36 KB
  • #192
  • Oct 25, 2007 2:08am Oct 25, 2007 2:08am
Bulls are trying to go and test the highs again today.

The first attement to break 1.4290 resistance failed, giving me +90 pips.
Now the risk in the second attempt is to break 1.4290 and go to test 1.4315 then 1.4348.

Now I will sell @1.4315 targeting 25 pips then 1.4345 targeting 1.4290, 1.4255 as a short term trade.

Long term trades mentioned before are still valid, just we can get better selling prices!

1.4240 is now on the way to be tested.

If 1.4225 is taken, then we have a short setup ready tp sell the bounce of 1.4238 targeting 1.4190
  • #193
  • Oct 25, 2007 2:20am Oct 25, 2007 2:20am
Quoting acidguy
lol, nice risk taker!

i have promised myself not to trade more eu for some time.
basically the pair in my opinion has just gotten insane and is reacting strangely bad.

in 1 side, we have some speculators buying tons of euros cause they say is the new world currency and blah blah blah. + usa enemies like iran and venezuela dumping dollars when there is an ocassion.

in the other hand, now china who was secretly dumping dollars, after the G7 didnt make an agreement, there are rumors that they are helping the dollar cause they probably now we are near december and they gonna burn as well if dollar fall too fast.


did you notice what happened yesterday?
bad bad news from usa, and sudenly the dollar started gaining value when many investors started longing. some says, equities, ok also we are close to 31oct rate fed decision and dollar standing still firm and making bull attempts?

something else is happening besides curtains. BD in play!

just hope the best for you and hope you dont get burn or caught in a trade with this crazy pair.
Welcome acidguy to the thread!

Every time you take a trade, you are risking your money else you can not make money! The secret of winning is to have an excellent discipline trading your plan and to respect your money management rules.

I am making tons of pips trading what you call the 'crazy pair'. Indeed its reactions these days are not what 'conventional' traders expect. Why? Because Big Dogs are now taking their profits from the pocket of these traders as I explain in my posts in this anti Big-Dogs trades thread.

I do my plan and I follow it whatever BD try to do, and I harvest pips 'counter-trending'. Well I am convinced that EU is going down sooner and faster than most traders would think and it will take all their stops on the way down to 1.3600-700 levels.

Thank you for your concern. I will not get burn or caught in a trade since I will get out of the trade soon enough to get in another profitable one later

And I am only shorting more than 95% of my EU trades!

Happy trading,

Hani
  • #194
  • Oct 25, 2007 2:46am Oct 25, 2007 2:46am
Well if you insist, and want to trade with the main trend,
you may take this buy short term setup.

Safe trade:
Buy @1.4225-30 target 1.4285, 1.4310 and 1.4345 SL 1.4205
If 1.4225 is broken and SL is not hit, try to close the trade at break even or around 1.4235, as a sell setup will be in play.

Agressive trade:
Buy @1.4240 target 1.4285, 1.3410 and 1.4345 SL 1.4220

I may take a buy trade just for fun!

Happy trading to all,

Hani
  • #195
  • Oct 25, 2007 3:06am Oct 25, 2007 3:06am
Dear Hani,
Thanks for your great thread. I have followed it from the first post. I also had sold BIG @ 1.4332. (From your advise & technical view of the weekly chart) BUT I had a question from you:

How do you define your entries & exits?

Well, I by myself use trend lines for entering + BIG Support OR Resistance levels BUT I haven't got a good strategy for exits SO sometimes its good sometimes late and ...

Also, do you put market orders only or your get in manually?

This is another problem for me, Sometimes I really think I am missing a good setup & I get in manually. After that I see that there had been better choices to enter.

I would really appreciate your thoughts,

Best Regards,
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #196
  • Oct 25, 2007 3:55am Oct 25, 2007 3:55am
Quoting khanderoo
Dear Hani,
Quoting khanderoo
Thanks for your great thread. I have followed it from the first post. I also had sold BIG @ 1.4332. (From your advise & technical view of the weekly chart) BUT I had a question from you:

How do you define your entries & exits?

Well, I by myself use trend lines for entering + BIG Support OR Resistance levels BUT I haven't got a good strategy for exits SO sometimes its good sometimes late and ...

Also, do you put market orders only or your get in manually?

This is another problem for me, Sometimes I really think I am missing a good setup & I get in manually. After that I see that there had been better choices to enter.

I would really appreciate your thoughts,

Best Regards,


Welcome khanderoo to the thread!

I am pleased that you made good trades not following only my advices, but by doing your own homework and choices.

Seems to me you are on a good way for trading consistently.
I enter 75% of my trades manually when I can follow the market, else I put a market order with lower risk (0.5-2% max)

For the exit, I mostly always trade for more than 1:1 ratio up to 1:4 ratio, which means that if I risk 10 pips, I should get at least 10 pips up to 40 pips. I am not chasing the market. I don't search for a setup where I would risk 10 pips and get 100.

If you sell at Big resistance level, you can go to 50% price between this level and another good support to take your profit.

You may use a multi exit strategy, exiting half your position at 50%, 25% at 68% or 75% and let the last 25% run the support level after setting your stop loss at your entry level or entry level + 1 pips (For your pride having more positive trades)

Don't take profit too soon, but don't hesitate to take at least partial profit when you feel your are on a good level.

Happy trading!

Hani
  • #197
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:30am Oct 25, 2007 6:30am
so can short eur/usd all the way to 1.3700 ???

i thought maybe 1.3850 since that's the 50% retracement from it's last big move ?

if go to 1.3700 also very good..........cheaper price......

BIG DOGS indeed.......seems like most pairs are now reacting to the Dow Jones, that's good too since Dow Jones can be the barometer ..........
  • #198
  • Edited 7:19am Oct 25, 2007 7:16am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting findcount
so can short eur/usd all the way to 1.3700 ???

i thought maybe 1.3850 since that's the 50% retracement from it's last big move ?

if go to 1.3700 also very good..........cheaper price......

BIG DOGS indeed.......seems like most pairs are now reacting to the Dow Jones, that's good too since Dow Jones can be the barometer ..........
All the way down? Not obligatory.

There's no right to the target shoot for so much pips in EU.

It will go down, then up, then down, then higher maybe to 1.45 if necessary (1.4355 should be removed first)... All that would be needed to take stops out and let traders give back their profits adding to them from the balance and their earning.

1.3850 is good. Lot of traders will go longing here. So shouldn't BD take their stops before going up again, letting them going short first so they take more stops now? 1.3700, 3600 and little bit lower will do the job!

So beware the Big Dogs lies!
  • #199
  • Oct 25, 2007 9:14am Oct 25, 2007 9:14am
Quoting haniam
Bulls are trying to go and test the highs again today.

The first attement to break 1.4290 resistance failed, giving me +90 pips.
Now the risk in the second attempt is to break 1.4290 and go to test 1.4315 then 1.4348.

Now I will sell @1.4315 targeting 25 pips then 1.4345 targeting 1.4290, 1.4255 as a short term trade.

Long term trades mentioned before are still valid, just we can get better selling prices!

1.4240 is now on the way to be tested.

If 1.4225 is taken, then we have a short setup ready tp sell the bounce of 1.4238 targeting 1.4190
As planed,

Trade 4: Sold @1.4315 closed @1.4310 for +4 pips
Trade 5: Sold @1.4331 closed @1.4315 for +16 pips
Trade 6: Sold @1.4338 closed @1.4310 for +25 pips
Trade 7: Sold @1.4340 closed @1.4310 for +25 pips

Will sell higher around 1.430-35 targeting 25 pips and the break down of 1.43 targeting 10-20 pips
  • #200
  • Oct 25, 2007 10:04am Oct 25, 2007 10:04am
Quoting haniam
As planed,

Trade 4: Sold @1.4315 closed @1.4310 for +4 pips
Trade 5: Sold @1.4331 closed @1.4315 for +16 pips
Trade 6: Sold @1.4338 closed @1.4310 for +25 pips
Trade 7: Sold @1.4340 closed @1.4310 for +25 pips

Will sell higher around 1.430-35 targeting 25 pips and the break down of 1.43 targeting 10-20 pips
Trade 8: Sold @1.4306 closed @1.4301 for +5 pips

Prices were 3 pips shy from our sell @1.4327
Will sell higher @1.4318 targeting 15-25 pips
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