james16 Chart Thread | Page 360 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

Attachments: james16 Chart Thread
Exit Attachments

james16 Chart Thread

  • #7,181
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:17pm Oct 23, 2007 8:17pm
Hi Arstel,

Just to let you know, James doesn't post here much so I dont know if you will get an answer from him. As far as the website you're asking about, I don't know whether that's good or not.
The best way to figure out the trend is by having a look at the charts. You can use trendlines or possibly a Moving Average.

Going through the Beginner section here at FF will help you a lot.

Tom
  • #7,182
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:09pm Oct 23, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting the_wizard
I get much more confidence when the left and right eyes have matching highs like they did around this pin bar.
Wiz,
Good job on this pin trade. I was wondering what are your rules for judging whether a pin bar is good or bad? The pin bar circled looked to be in some traffic maybe. I could be wrong and would love some more advice about trading pins that look like that. I have had very good success in my demo account lately with swing high and low pin bars but the one you are showing there is the kind of pin bars I need more work on. Thanks
  • #7,183
  • Oct 24, 2007 2:41am Oct 24, 2007 2:41am
.
Attached Image
  • #7,184
  • Oct 24, 2007 3:10am Oct 24, 2007 3:10am
Thank Tom you're helpful .... Pleas keep me in touch on forex when most of you are trading so that i can join with others members. My time is GMT+7 whats yours?
Regards, Arstel
  • #7,185
  • Edited 4:42am Oct 24, 2007 4:00am | Edited 4:42am
Hi Wall_Street,

You are right, this pin is in traffic. All I can tell you is that after trading these for several months now I have found out that pins appearing in traffic work as well for me as pins at swing highs/lows.

This is probably because I trade rather instinctually rather than follow a strict set of rules. I like to think of it more as a flexible methodology. If I was to take every pin in traffic then I might have a more negative result, but I don't.

Some setups make me sit up and pay interest whilst others don't and I think that is probably because I have subconcious ideas of what has worked before and a clear idea of what makes a high probability trade.

So, I am not telling you something that will be certain to work for you. You can only find this out through trading experience. Having said that, I will talk you through my thinking on this trade. Pull up the chart again and I will walk you through it: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1193157446

To me it looked like the market had made a top on Friday (19th) followed by a sharp decline into support.

On Monday (22nd) it broke this support lower but bounced. You will see however that it was forming hourly pins into the close. Upwards progress was therefore running into resistance.

On Tuesday (23rd) the market tries to move higher, stalls once again at the highs and forms an hourly pin. Now if you look at the $86.50 level and run your eye across to the left you will see what looks like a decent flip between support and resistance. It is only minor (probably wouldn't show up on a daily chart) but nevertheless it is a significant level for me as it has been in play now for six days. This particular pin closes just beneath this S/R level.

Now this pin is particularly attractive to me because the distance from high to low is a small number of pips for this market, meaning the potential R:R could be excellent.

The first problem area is $86.00 which is also a PPZ but if it hits there, the trade would almost be a 1:1. Some people might turn there nose up at this but once again, every traders profile is different. I have examined all my trades and have an 80% win/loss ratio which makes a consistent R:R of 1:1 very profitable over time. If your win/loss ratio was 50% this would not be a good strategy.

Exits are similarily instinctual. I like to put my stops above/below a decent S/R pivot or behind one of the EMAs I use (if they are trending in the way I look for). However, if I have 200 pips in profit and the only safe place to put my stop is +20 then I may consider exiting as the R:R has become badly skewed. In the case of this trade, when it moved to a gain of 1:7:1 R:R, I decided to close out as the only place I could see for my stop was an area that would give back too much of the profit.

I hope this helps.

Wiz
  • #7,186
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:31am Oct 24, 2007 7:31am
Quoting arstel
Thank Tom you're helpful .... Pleas keep me in touch on forex when most of you are trading so that i can join with others members. My time is GMT+7 whats yours?
Regards, Arstel
Hey Arstel (and to anyone else who is new to this thread),

The best thing to do in this thread is to go to the beginning and start reading & studying all the information. I know it's many pages but the information in this thread is some of the best IMO.
You will find many trade examples & discussions about everything. Then you can practice everything on your own.

Everyone here trades at different times and some at all times.
My time is GMT-5 (I think that's what EST is).

Tom
  • #7,187
  • Oct 24, 2007 11:33am Oct 24, 2007 11:33am
Quoting the_wizard
Hi Wall_Street,

You are right, this pin is in traffic. All I can tell you is that after trading these for several months now I have found out that pins appearing in traffic work as well for me as pins at swing highs/lows.
</p>
Wiz,Thanks for that detailed discussion. I can see what you mean now. I have stayed away from pins in traffic because they can be hard to trade and the win/loss ratio probably isn't too good until you develop that instinctive feel for the good set-ups. I think if you get an opportunity to place a relatively small stop loss with very good profit potential (hence very good R/R), then these pins in traffic can be good trades overall. More demo trading is needed I guess to fully master these pins in traffic.Also once you understand what the price patterns mean in terms of where the pair is headed next, the rest becomes nature. Ex: Pin bars signal potential reversals in the making because price is resisting the advance or decline. Inside bars signal price is consolidating waiting for direction. If the consolidation channels are wide enough like the GBP/USD channels, you can set alarms or entry orders at the top and bottoms of the channel and make good pips that way. Anyways I ran off topic here but I totally understand what you did there. The one problem I would have with the trade was it’s against the longer term trend, but Oil had been running up for along time and things can’t go up in a straight line. Thanks for the information.</p></p>
  • #7,188
  • Edited 5:49pm Oct 24, 2007 5:19pm | Edited 5:49pm
The problem here is that I really liked this Pin Bar... and you scared me away from it !!! Well, that of coarse is my own problem... !! But as seeking said, I must learn to think for my self... and this I will do in the future !!!

Although price may now be coming to it's high ( maybe ), and it may or may not be a long run, but even at this point this PB would have paid off nicely for me...

The PB looked good... it even fits a discription MBQB11 used in his video of price swinging over and dangling a cherry ( or something like that )... I am too infulenced by what others say... ( even though I asked for opinions )

Time I take the trade or not on my own... this won't happen again... !!!

Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining... but starting to realize I am not such a bad trader... but I've got to listen to myself first !!!

Quoting raczekfx
This is actually pb by proxy with a left eye around .8815.
Why do I get a feeling, it's going to break down instead of up.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #7,189
  • Oct 24, 2007 5:30pm Oct 24, 2007 5:30pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
Its weakened enough, maybe....
Naa.
  • #7,190
  • Oct 24, 2007 5:53pm Oct 24, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
The problem here is that I really liked this Pin Bar... and you scared me away from it !!! Well, that of coarse is my own problem... !! But as seeking said, I must learn to think for my self... and this I will do in the future !!!

Although price may now be coming to it's high ( maybe ), and it may or may not be a long run, but even at this point this PB would have paid off nicely for me...

The PB looked good... it even fits a discription MBQB11 used in his video of price swinging over and dangling a cherry ( or something like that )... I am too infulenced by what others say... ( even though I asked for opinions )

Time I take the trade or not on my own... this won't happen again... !!!

Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining... but starting to realize I am not such a bad trader... but I've got to listen to myself first !!!
My sincere apologies Ticki. I'll try not to make any comments based on what I see or think in this thread. They belong to my journal...
It was indeed very profitable pin.. Many, many more pips to you.
  • #7,191
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:09pm Oct 24, 2007 6:09pm
would anyone not trade the IB's forming on the GBPUSD and EURUSD to the upside?
would anyone take it to the short side? why?

would anyone stay out currently? why?

trying to find reasons not to get into this trade which looks quite promising..

Thanks, Michael
  • #7,192
  • Edited 6:45pm Oct 24, 2007 6:19pm | Edited 6:45pm
Not about you, not about the PB... but about me doing my what I am supposed to do !!! And I still do not do it often enough... which is just think for myself !!

Quoting raczekfx
My sincere apologies Ticki. I'll try not to make any comments based on what I see or think in this thread. They belong to my journal...
It was indeed very profitable pin.. Many, many more pips to you.
  • #7,193
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:47pm Oct 24, 2007 6:47pm
How do you know they will be inside bars ??

As for GBP... at this point, I think it has no idea what it wants to do... I have given up thinking it is a flag as mbqb had said a while back... I just don't think it fits that idea anymore...



Quoting mamutot
would anyone not trade the IB's forming on the GBPUSD and EURUSD to the upside?
would anyone take it to the short side? why?

would anyone stay out currently? why?

trying to find reasons not to get into this trade which looks quite promising..

Thanks, Michael
  • #7,194
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:51pm Oct 24, 2007 6:51pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
How do you know they will be inside bars ??
it closes on my charts in 10 min. from now - and to be honest - i had already yesterday the thought that today will be an IB - so what do you say?

tradeable?

a good pick?
  • #7,195
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:03pm Oct 24, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting Tiki Trader

Time I take the trade or not on my own... this won't happen again... !!!

Don't get me wrong, I am not complaining... but starting to realize I am not such a bad trader... but I've got to listen to myself first !!!
This is key and critical! Ideas and observations from others are nice, especially when they align with your own. But in the end, each one of us trades off of our own perspective of the trend, the charts, the patterns that form, etc., etc. I've learned to trade "what I see" and not "what I think"!

Nonetheless, I still love the sharing and comraderie this forum offers! Way to go James16!!!!
  • #7,196
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:04pm Oct 24, 2007 7:04pm
OK, well then we are in different time zones... and mentally I have never been real sure what time zone I am in... so... I better not say any more.... though I still stand by what I said about GBP...




Quoting mamutot
it closes on my charts in 10 min. from now - and to be honest - i had already yesterday the thought that today will be an IB - so what do you say?

tradeable?

a good pick?
  • #7,197
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:07pm Oct 24, 2007 7:07pm
Quoting baddison
This is key and critical! Ideas and observations from others are nice, especially when they align with your own. But in the end, each one of us trades off of our own perspective of the trend, the charts, the patterns that form, etc., etc. I've learned to trade "what I see" and not "what I think"!

Nonetheless, I still love the sharing and comraderie this forum offers! Way to go James16!!!!

You are right... and I am getting there... but I hope it does not take me another three years !!!
  • #7,198
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:31pm Oct 24, 2007 7:31pm
Quoting mamutot
would anyone not trade the IB's forming on the GBPUSD and EURUSD to the upside?
would anyone take it to the short side? why?

would anyone stay out currently? why?

trying to find reasons not to get into this trade which looks quite promising..
Thanks, Michael
Hi Michael,

I agree with Tiki about GBPUSD. For myself, there's not a clear enough direction. I don't like trading when price is moving sideways with some big up/down moves that dont really give a trend. For that reason I wont touch that IB.
EURUSD is a little less clutered, but still not good enough for my liking. It's sitting close to a PPZ around 1.4150ish as I see it, but some resistance close to the top just past 4300.

Again, this is personal opinion and preference. I play it more conservative than most so I like to see room for my trades to move. This may very well break long for example and take off. But I wont feel bad cuz it doesn't fit my trading plan. Just offering my point of view.

Tom
  • #7,199
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:40pm Oct 24, 2007 7:40pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Not about you, not about the PB... but about me doing my what I am supposed to do !!! And I still do not do it often enough... which is just think for myself !!
This is absolutely critical to believe in your trading abilities if you want to succeed. Take a note of what others are saying and do what you think is right....
I know, I was in your shoes few years ago, listening to analysts, traders, reading blogs and was only losing money.
One day, I woke up, and looking in the mirror I said out loud: I CAN DO IT...
Everything changed for better since that day.. I know that you CAN DO IT too... !
Best
  • #7,200
  • Oct 24, 2007 8:01pm Oct 24, 2007 8:01pm
Well, whatever you want to call it, price is in a consolidating pattern. I would consider long, especially if I see some nice PA around the 1.4200 area. That is about the center of this triangle, but more importantly PZ zone for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 24 KB
314 traders viewing now