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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #7,601
  • Oct 23, 2007 6:52am Oct 23, 2007 6:52am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Pips,
I was reading your post.48%........I was wondering would you put some of your analyses here .
I don't mean to follow it blindly but for me ,I see lots of oppurtunities and I plan them perfectly but still I don't have self confidence to pull the trigger!!but if I see your analyses is almost like mine then I get that self confidence to trade .
Please advise if I am wrong.

Regards
Mike
At me the same problem
Me too as your analysis is interesting Pips
Sorry for my bad english
  • #7,602
  • Edited 7:54am Oct 23, 2007 7:34am | Edited 7:54am
Quoting OldDog

Ashes, good self-analysis! You're on the way now. You and I have a similar problem, in that we don't want to miss out on trades. That is something I've been working on, and you will have to do the same. Phillip is constantly reminding us not to overtrade, and we must listen to him. Observe how he and other experienced traders on the thread use support and resistance. They don't consider those areas to be walls blocking further motion. They usually wait to see how price reacts around those areas of support and resistance, to see if price breaks through or retreats. Search through this thread hastily, and see how many times you can find something similar to the words, "I will wait." I'll bet that we would find many instances.

A further thought: Something you and I must repeat to ourselves like a mantra, "Wait for the candle to close!"
Hello OldDog,

thank you for your feedback.

I waited until candle close at 01:00 gmt this morning, humming the mantra.
Then I entered long on eur/usd and gbp/usd. The macd has shown a round
bottom and the fist green bar was established at candle close.
I made a lot of pips.

I was toot tired to post these trades.

It seems as if a round top or round bottom are amost 100%safe indicators
if one waits until they form and and establish the first different colored bar at
candle close.

But I will have to concentrate on trend continuation more than on trend reversal,
since the reversal trades are the more risky ones.

Next trades may show.


Greetings
  • #7,603
  • Oct 23, 2007 7:36am Oct 23, 2007 7:36am
Quoting bisar_x
Sorry, but havent post for several months. I need your opinion, if we'll have a TC would you take a short until or after it will brake 89SMA?

Romeo.
Following fewer pairs makes things a lot more manageable. As far as your Tc goes, your 8/21 ma's haven't really lined up yet. Look at the previous uptrend and see how the 8 is holding its own against the 21. I think your red line is the 89. The 8/21 really need to gel before Tc should be considered.

Here's the $Yen in a last uptrend. Look for the 8 (yellow line) to be in synch and above the 21 (blue). The gray lines would have been the re-entries. Let the rhythm get going and flow....
  • #7,604
  • Oct 23, 2007 7:37am Oct 23, 2007 7:37am
uh, the chart....
Attached Image
  • #7,605
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:05am Oct 23, 2007 8:05am
Skype info:

I just had a thought , thanks Jim. I could put the Skype info in the website as well. I have yet to enter that realm and need a little info to get the info. Soooooo can someone fill me in on where, how, and what to do to sign up for Skype and where 'we' all meet? You can post back here to the thread so everyone can see.

Thanks
  • #7,606
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:09am Oct 23, 2007 8:09am
I can see what you mean Palmer. Thanks
  • #7,607
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:23am Oct 23, 2007 8:23am
Quoting mike1349
Hi Pips,
I was reading your post.48%........I was wondering would you put some of your analyses here .
I don't mean to follow it blindly but for me ,I see lots of oppurtunities and I plan them perfectly but still I don't have self confidence to pull the trigger!!but if I see your analyses is almost like mine then I get that self confidence to trade .
Please advise if I am wrong.

Regards
Mike
Mike,

I'm going to be brutal...You are wrong! I don't mind putting up my analysis (in fact if you look back at the charts I've posted, my trades are quite clear (LOL!)..simple s&r breaks/bounces/rejects w/macd direction as confirmation...even months later, the same areas are where I'm trading (the lines keep coming back into play).

Again, I don't mind sharing my analysis, but I don't want you or other's to use it as confirmation. This is not how you build confidence! Confidence is gained by practice and experience. You must backtest, make notes, keep a journal and trade live w/very small micro lots if necessary. My analysis is how I perceive the market and is adapted for my risk tolerances. Only you can know how you perceive the market and how much is OK to risk and how much profit is OK to take. By acting as your "comfort blanket," I will be doing you a disservice (sp?), and will not be doing my part to help you grow as a trader. If you want, post your charts w/your thoughts and ask for specific feedback on what I see. This is a much better way for you to gain confidence and learn. I posted my E/U and G/U long trades on Palmer's blog tonight and immediately erased the posts...why? because I hate thinking other's are using a consensus approach to trading and may alter their plans based on my actions.

Sorry if this sounds harsh...It isn't meant to be mean, only honest.

Wishing you the best,
Pips
  • #7,608
  • Edited 8:45am Oct 23, 2007 8:30am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting ashes
Hello OldDog,



It seems as if a round top or round bottom are amost 100%safe indicators
if one waits until they form and and establish the first different colored bar at
candle close.

But I will have to concentrate on trend continuation more than on trend reversal,
since the reversal trades are the more risky ones.

Next trades may show.


Greetings
Nice job on your trades tonight!

Have to admit I kinda giggled at the almost 100% safe indicators...TC's form off of RT's and RB's and that's why we often get stung! (& in trending market a RT/RB can be consolidation pattern).

You should def. backtest in history and see how you do w/the RT's and RB's (perfect Rounding patterns do produce sweet pippage, especially when coming off extreme levels!) and the TC's. You may find that you have a unique talent at identifying the contratrend trade. Only way to know is go back and see!!

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #7,609
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:43am Oct 23, 2007 8:43am
Quoting Palmer
Following fewer pairs makes things a lot more manageable. As far as your Tc goes, your 8/21 ma's haven't really lined up yet. Look at the previous uptrend and see how the 8 is holding its own against the 21. I think your red line is the 89. The 8/21 really need to gel before Tc should be considered.

Here's the $Yen in a last uptrend. Look for the 8 (yellow line) to be in synch and above the 21 (blue). The gray lines would have been the re-entries. Let the rhythm get going and flow....

Nice info w/great chart (as always!! you overachiever you!!)...

Don't think you'll get the perfect MA set-up for a tc short on E/U in current price position (would have to have it break through the 89 and travel a bit), which would make the original question invalid....and would also show the true wisdom of Palmer...stick to the rules...above 89 = buying mood, below 89 = selling mood...Brilliant, simply brilliant!!

Hey Palmer! Did you get the T-shirt yet for post 1000? & how about Ms. Z?
You kick major piping booty!!!!

Have a happy day,
Pips
  • #7,610
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:51am Oct 23, 2007 8:51am
Im new to the 4 hour macd system but im learning. Heres my thoughts about GBP/USD... Currently the price is resting at the monthly resitance and also at the psychological level of 2.0500. Last week and this monday price tried to break the monthly resitance but didnt make it. Price is still in a channel and right now its possible that we'll see a ZB in the next couple of hours. If so i will go short and profit target will be at the sma 89, that of course if the r:r will be acceptable when/if that ZB occurs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #7,611
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:15am Oct 23, 2007 9:15am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi guys!

Ira: thanks for the post to Phillip -- it helped me a lot...my attitude has been very stinky lately and you helped me see my selfish ways...Thank you!

Ryanmacd, Shreem, Nadia and all other members who posted to Phillip....You guys are amazing! It is members of our supportive community that make this place great!!

We all know how difficult it is to learn to trade (and how freakingly long the process is)...but, others are only starting out and don't understand basic trading skills. These are the people who usually hop from system to system looking for the "Holy Grail." Also, many people are unrealistic at how much time needs to be devoted to this business...They think the infomercials are how it works and aren't willing to learn the processes....These are also the people who aren't willing to put the time into learning, practicing and testing themselves (and that's ok too...we need these types in the market so we can get our pips!). There is truly only one way to know if you can trade this method (I don't really like calling it a system b/c that implies mechanical black box to me)...that is to practice it for yourself and to test it for yourself. If it isn't working right, then we come help you figure out what (if anything) was overlooked...and if you are truly lucky...(hehe)...The "Master" will help you figure out what you can do better to improve your trading results. That's right...Help YOU FIGURE OUT WHAT YOU CAN DO BETTER...trading really is an individual sport....

OH...And to any of the doubter's of the system...So far this month...on 2 main currency pairs...Pips for the month are over 600 (not including any of my yen trades, only Majors). Average return on my account per month is 48% (Over the last 10)....I don't think those are stinky results at all...and I still have much room for improvement!

Happy trading all!
Pips
That is great.
Let nobody doubt this system. Just take a look at the trades people usually post on this thread and you'll see what it can do for you if you follow the plan/strategy to the letter.
also just accept losses as it is part of your plan but remember MONEY MANAGEMENT.
That return of 48% is impressive but i'll keep to my plan and calculate it after i have graduated to trading a lot.
I appreciate the contributors ideas.
Chao to everybody.
  • #7,612
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:31am Oct 23, 2007 9:31am
What do you guys think of the development of the USD/JPY? The price moved through the 89 and it eventually retraced back to the 21 according to market rythm... The MACD may be forming a TC pattern and it may be time to short. The signal is however not there yet, i understand that many of you guys use the 1 hour to enter earlier. Is this one of these trades that you may use the 1 hour to get in earlier or should we wait for the 4 hour MACD to confirm before we enter?
  • #7,613
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:31am Oct 23, 2007 9:31am
If you would like to be able to see the 4 hr Moving Averages while looking at smaller timeframe charts here's a template I made that you can use. Just put your macd on the bottom and enjoy. This will give you a close approximation to where the MAs are within in a pip or two while looking at smaller tf's (timeframes) you may have to increase the number of bars in your chart to get the Ma's to show in the real small timeframes i.e. 5m 15m ........click....tools,options,chart.......max bars in chart. enjoy.....pipip......Jimdandy
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl maoverlay.tpl   8 KB | 639 downloads
  • #7,614
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:14am Oct 23, 2007 10:14am
Pips - you are serving aces today . Sorry guys I play only tennis.
Speaking seriously I completely agree with all your posts, well done !
  • #7,615
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:32am Oct 23, 2007 10:32am
Quoting ekling
What do you guys think of the development of the USD/JPY? The price moved through the 89 and it eventually retraced back to the 21 according to market rythm... The MACD may be forming a TC pattern and it may be time to short. The signal is however not there yet, i understand that many of you guys use the 1 hour to enter earlier. Is this one of these trades that you may use the 1 hour to get in earlier or should we wait for the 4 hour MACD to confirm before we enter?
Here it is....

Yes, use the 1hr to get in earlier. This is more of an aggressive approach to enter with. I have an initial targets of a previous s/r lines on the 1hr..
Attached Images
  • #7,616
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:34am Oct 23, 2007 10:34am
ooops, forgot this:

ekling: Don't rush to get in if you think you missed the move. If it's 'already moving' you can try with a sell limit order on a retracement, but don't chase things. The great thing here is that you recognized the set-up..it will happen again.
  • #7,617
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:37am Oct 23, 2007 10:37am
Quoting Palmer
Skype info:

I just had a thought , thanks Jim. I could put the Skype info in the website as well. I have yet to enter that realm and need a little info to get the info. Soooooo can someone fill me in on where, how, and what to do to sign up for Skype and where 'we' all meet? You can post back here to the thread so everyone can see.

Thanks
Hi,
just go to skype.com and downlad it and get a username.Then ask Phillip to add you into the chatroom.
EASY!

Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #7,618
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:45am Oct 23, 2007 10:45am
Quoting pips4uandme
Mike,

I'm going to be brutal...You are wrong! I don't mind putting up my analysis (in fact if you look back at the charts I've posted, my trades are quite clear (LOL!)..simple s&r breaks/bounces/rejects w/macd direction as confirmation...even months later, the same areas are where I'm trading (the lines keep coming back into play).

Again, I don't mind sharing my analysis, but I don't want you or other's to use it as confirmation. This is not how you build confidence! Confidence is gained by practice and experience. You must backtest, make notes, keep a journal and trade live w/very small micro lots if necessary. My analysis is how I perceive the market and is adapted for my risk tolerances. Only you can know how you perceive the market and how much is OK to risk and how much profit is OK to take. By acting as your "comfort blanket," I will be doing you a disservice (sp?), and will not be doing my part to help you grow as a trader. If you want, post your charts w/your thoughts and ask for specific feedback on what I see. This is a much better way for you to gain confidence and learn. I posted my E/U and G/U long trades on Palmer's blog tonight and immediately erased the posts...why? because I hate thinking other's are using a consensus approach to trading and may alter their plans based on my actions.

Sorry if this sounds harsh...It isn't meant to be mean, only honest.

Wishing you the best,
Pips
Hi Pips

It doesn't sound harsh. It is the real world (reality) of trading. This is also what I am trying to tell the traders on the Phillip's 5min system as well. We are thinking alike and talking the same language.

I do like your approach and I can see why Phillip speak to highly of you. Well done and keep it up.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #7,619
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:52am Oct 23, 2007 10:52am
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  • #7,620
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:59am Oct 23, 2007 10:59am
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