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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,201
  • Oct 22, 2007 10:45am Oct 22, 2007 10:45am
For those applying jacko's methods, I am curious how you applied the AH strategy to today's EUR/USD drop. When did or will you reenter long? Thanks.
  • #1,202
  • Oct 22, 2007 10:50am Oct 22, 2007 10:50am
Quoting nonlinear
For those applying jacko's methods, I am curious how you applied the AH strategy to today's EUR/USD drop. When did or will you reenter long? Thanks.
You would have been stopped out with the trailing stop and then your stopped trade would not be re-entered until price got back up to the stop point. So it would have been fine, you just would not have traded the counter trend down.
  • #1,203
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:05am Oct 22, 2007 11:05am
smjones, Ok, that clarifies a few things, but I am curious about this strategy and am trying to learn from today's move. If one believes that the trend will continue enough to place a long order at your executed stop loss, then why not place another order farther below that stop loss (assuming that price dropped even further like today)? I have read many times that entry is not that critcal. Perhaps Jacko's AH technique keeps one out of bad trades in the event of a trend reversal? It is mentally tempting to place a new long order on a round number after a significant drop like today rather than wait for a return to my prior stop loss.
  • #1,204
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:09am Oct 22, 2007 11:09am
Refer to http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1539481&postcount=586
Mr. Trend
  • #1,205
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:11am Oct 22, 2007 11:11am
Quoting nonlinear
smjones, Ok, that clarifies a few things, but I am curious about this strategy and am trying to learn from today's move. If one believes that the trend will continue enough to place a long order at your executed stop loss, then why not place another order farther below that stop loss (assuming that price dropped even further like today)? I have read many times that entry is not that critcal. Perhaps Jacko's AH technique keeps one out of bad trades in the event of a trend reversal? It is mentally tempting to place a new long order on a round number after a significant drop like today rather than wait for a return to my prior stop loss.
That is a good question. I do not know what Jacko is thinking on this, but for me, the reason I would wait is to confirm that the trend is going to continue. Of course even having the price come back up to the stop point is certainly no guarantee. That is my take on it. It would be interesting to read some other view points.
  • #1,206
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:52am Oct 22, 2007 11:52am
Thank you Mr Trend - tons to read and re-read in Jacko's posts (my bad). So, it sounds like this is where the discretion comes in, which is where I am most uncomfortable. When looking to reenter, how does one best use the data from different time frames? On the H1, price dropped 100%. On the 4H, 50% is 4182 - price blew right past that and is now hovering around the 61.8 (might be support here as price bounced off this level twice before on the 4H). On the D1, the 50% is about 3855 (not there - yet). Am I correct that the minimal risk would consider a buy at 4200, risky would place a buy at 4100 (if it hits), and the very risky at 3855 (if it hits)? Thanks again.
  • #1,207
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:53pm Oct 22, 2007 4:53pm
am i being silly if i think the current drop is far from over ?

seems like the current carry trade unwind is entering into a consolidation phase like back in July before another big drop..............so eur/usd should follow suit and drop further ?
  • #1,208
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:12pm Oct 22, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting smjones
You would have been stopped out with the trailing stop and then your stopped trade would not be re-entered until price got back up to the stop point. So it would have been fine, you just would not have traded the counter trend down.


Hi smjones

Correct.

However, I used our new countertrend stategy to take my first very cautious counter trend trade (using the new stategy) when the market was dropping. Very small number of lots. But interesting.


.
  • #1,209
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:13pm Oct 22, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting smjones
That is a good question. I do not know what Jacko is thinking on this, but for me, the reason I would wait is to confirm that the trend is going to continue. Of course even having the price come back up to the stop point is certainly no guarantee. That is my take on it. It would be interesting to read some other view points.

Hi smjones

Correct


.
  • #1,210
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:22pm Oct 22, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting nonlinear
smjones, Ok, that clarifies a few things, but I am curious about this strategy and am trying to learn from today's move. If one believes that the trend will continue enough to place a long order at your executed stop loss, then why not place another order farther below that stop loss (assuming that price dropped even further like today)? I have read many times that entry is not that critcal. Perhaps Jacko's AH technique keeps one out of bad trades in the event of a trend reversal? It is mentally tempting to place a new long order on a round number after a significant drop like today rather than wait for a return to my prior stop loss.
Hi nonlinear,

When this happens you need to go for a long walk for at least one hour, then come back and have a look at the "big picture" (at a minimum, use a daily or weekly chart) to put yesterdays drop into perspective.

A good trader has the experience / gut feel / etc NOT to get overly excited and trade dangerously.

However, you will only learn this by making lots of mistakes and getting old. !!!!


.
  • #1,211
  • Edited 6:04pm Oct 22, 2007 5:44pm | Edited 6:04pm
Hi, everyone. First post to the thread.

Um...

Holy crap!! Is it safe to short USD again??!!

I sure hope so because I'm long E/U 1.4181, TP 1.4281

and long G/U 2.0339, TP 2.0439.

50p TS on both.

It appeared the E/U in particular took a really hard bounce on the 50.00 fibo.
  • #1,212
  • Oct 22, 2007 10:38pm Oct 22, 2007 10:38pm
Quoting jacko

However, you will only learn this by making lots of mistakes and getting old. !!!!


.

LOL.... 1955 was a loooong time ago
  • #1,213
  • Oct 23, 2007 1:01am Oct 23, 2007 1:01am
Hi... I would also like to thank jacko (et al.) for the time they take out of their day to help out. This thread has given me a lot to think about and has definitely expedited my confidence in trading.

I guess I am trying to understand why China would favor a weaker vs stronger dollar in regard to the Euro. If most of China's reserves are currently held in USD I cannot understand why shift to the Euro. Do they have enough influence to stabilize the dollar in face of the mounting US debt and decreased investor confidence?

It seems to me that they would want a strong dollar because of the increased exports to the US. Also doesn't a strong dollar essentially lower their cost of oil?

thanks.
  • #1,214
  • Oct 23, 2007 1:15am Oct 23, 2007 1:15am
Hello Jacko,

thank you for your method. I like the way you're thinking a lot. You're a big motivator and a big trader.

I have a question: can sameone direct me to the post where te countertrend strategy is described. I just can't find it.

thx
  • #1,215
  • Oct 23, 2007 2:32am Oct 23, 2007 2:32am
Quoting avus
Hello Jacko,

thank you for your method. I like the way you're thinking a lot. You're a big motivator and a big trader.

I have a question: can sameone direct me to the post where te countertrend strategy is described. I just can't find it.

thx
Hi avus,
The counter-trend strategy was designed in conjuction with Jacko's friend Mark - who does not wish to share it.

Ian
  • #1,216
  • Oct 23, 2007 1:11pm Oct 23, 2007 1:11pm
Jacko,
One of my fallen soldiers stood up last night and began moving forward again. What a great feeling. Thanks for your help.
Archer
  • #1,217
  • Oct 26, 2007 7:25am Oct 26, 2007 7:25am
wonder if anyone is using this method as his main or only method ? at least no need for mind-boggling indicators.......

what would be a good entry point now or should i stay out as price at all-time high and stock market not too stable yet........
  • #1,218
  • Oct 26, 2007 7:37am Oct 26, 2007 7:37am
Only Jacko may answer your question, he will come back.

Meanwhile I can recommend you to read his post #4, and specially this

Quoting jacko
2. buy/sell on dips.
Hope it helps
  • #1,219
  • Oct 27, 2007 5:06am Oct 27, 2007 5:06am
Quoting Galileo258
Only Jacko may answer your question, he will come back.

Meanwhile I can recommend you to read his post #4, and specially this



Hope it helps

many thanks for the reminder......the FED rate cut or not will probably decide things.....
  • #1,220
  • Oct 29, 2007 11:26am Oct 29, 2007 11:26am
Jacko, have you ever considered using an odd number for your SL?
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