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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #7,561
  • Oct 21, 2007 9:36pm Oct 21, 2007 9:36pm
I found my trading quote for the week while watching "Polar Express" with my kids this weekend. Tom Hanks said TRAINS, but the word TRENDS works for me in Forex trading:

"The thing about trains [trends?] is, it doesn't matter where they are going, it just matters that you get on board"

The Conductor from
Polar Express



Lets hope the train keeps rolling on the Euro...
  • #7,562
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:21am Oct 22, 2007 1:21am
http://www.rugbyworldcup.com/mm/Phot..._SQ_MEDIUM.jpg

Well done boys. You make us proud!

(This will be my last non-fx post, I promise)
Phil419
  • #7,563
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:27am Oct 22, 2007 6:27am
I will wait on both as to see if direction is up or down. Will wait for TC for an up move as we are above 89 and pullback to 21 currently
  • #7,564
  • Oct 22, 2007 7:32am Oct 22, 2007 7:32am
Wow, that's what's called filling the gap....
  • #7,565
  • Edited 1:06pm Oct 22, 2007 7:37am | Edited 1:06pm
eur/usd has found possible support around 89sma and daily TL.

pro:
I don't wait for the macd to confirm this trade because I think that
the two factors (89sma and daily TL) make for sufficient support.
There has been a huge downward move that calls for compensation.

con:
Maybe I should have waited for the next candle at 17:00 gmt to indicate
the further direction. also the macd would show a clearer signal by then.

pro:
the trading opportunity would probably disappear while waiting for the
17:00 gmt candle.


22 oct 07 13:06

eur/usd long 1,4177

sl 1,4127 (atr 48+20%) 2x-50

tp a 1,4216 (daily TL) + 39

tp b 1,4247 (21ema) + 70

100:109

R:R 1,09


15:48

I have closed the trade: 2x - 20 pips

the anticipated move went to +20 but then it retraced. possibly in continuation of the downtrend.


total: - 40 pips


18:14

summary:

my 2nd "pro" was actually a "con" for a trading plan of this size.

[ pro:
the trading opportunity would probably disappear while waiting for the
17:00 gmt candle.]

it does show that I was trigger happy and unpatient for the indicators to
form.

reminds me of Phillip saying: "I'd rather miss a good trade than be in a bad one"

I apprechiate comments and corrections


Greetings
  • #7,566
  • Oct 22, 2007 7:50am Oct 22, 2007 7:50am
Hi i am new to forex,but i started to trade live today after doing demo for some few months and backtesting this system for some time. I should thank everybody who has contributed to this forum,you guys have made me go live sooner than i expected.

I have decided to start with microlots before going for mini lots and eventually to lots. so today i took the trade attached below and anybody can post your comments on my analysis although i could have made more pips than the ones i made.

MACD-Double bottom
Price action it is ranging between the two trendlines.
So i expected the price to come to the upper trendline or inbetween the 8 and 21 EMA.
Take partial profits which i did i.e. after 30 pips and then after 50 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #7,567
  • Oct 22, 2007 8:48am Oct 22, 2007 8:48am
Quoting Edonya
I have decided to start with microlots before going for mini lots and eventually to lots. so today i took the trade attached below and anybody can post your comments on my analysis although i could have made more pips than the ones i made.
Well done, Edonya!

I only wish I was awake to take that one myself! Great trading and trade management!Another confirmation for your trade was the bullish MACD divergence that co-incided with the Double Bottom MACD signal. For those traders that, like me, don't always remember to check for divergence, I found this MACD Divergence indicator that you can overlay in the 4hr MACD window of your chart. Just change the divergence MACD settings to 5:13:1 and it'll automatically draw the divergence lines on your chart.The up/down arrows (buy/sell signals) co-incide nicely with 4hr MACD signals sometimes, as was the case here.

Wishing you all many pips.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD_Divergence_V1.1.mq4   12 KB | 1,071 downloads
File Type: ex4 MACD_Divergence_V1.1.ex4   11 KB | 769 downloads
  • #7,568
  • Oct 22, 2007 9:59am Oct 22, 2007 9:59am
Quoting ashes
eur/usd has found possible support around 89sma and daily TL.

pro:
I don't wait for the macd to confirm this trade because I think that
the two factors (89sma and daily TL) make for sufficient support.
There has been a huge downward move that calls for compensation.

con:
Maybe I should have waited for the next candle at 17:00 gmt to indicate
the further direction. also the macd would show a clearer signal by then.

pro:
the trading opportunity would probably disappear while waiting for the
17:00 gmt candle.


22 oct 07 13:06

eur/usd long 1,4177

sl 1,4127 (atr 48+20%) 2x-50

tp a 1,4216 (daily TL) + 39

tp b 1,4247 (21ema) + 70

100:109

R:R 1,09


15:48

I have closed the trade: 2x - 20 pips

the anticipated move went to +20 but then it retraced. possibly in continuation of the downtrend.


total: - 40 pips


I apprechiate comments and corrections

Greetings
Hi Ashes,

I placed an order at the same entry level 1.4177, but I shorted the E/U.

It is very dangerous to trade counter trend. I got the entry point to short from M15 chart.

Thanks.
  • #7,569
  • Oct 22, 2007 10:18am Oct 22, 2007 10:18am
Does my trend line make sense? I am expecting it to reach 2.0160 or even below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 31 KB
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #7,570
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:20pm Oct 22, 2007 12:20pm
For those with difficulty understanding spoken English.

Topics: Trades near major support or resistance. Over trading.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Phillip Nel Weekly Wrap Up 20 Oct2007.doc   7 KB | 599 downloads
  • #7,571
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:22pm Oct 22, 2007 12:22pm
info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 22 Oct2007.zip   820 KB | 1,057 downloads
  • #7,572
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:38pm Oct 22, 2007 12:38pm
Can someone tell me about Northfinance. I notice it was requoting most of the time I wanted too enter into a trade. When I tried to enter same time on MIG, it was'nt requoting. Is everything ok with Northfinance? Please, I want great people of this forum to advice. I am sorry to have deviate from the topic.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #7,573
  • Edited 1:47pm Oct 22, 2007 1:27pm | Edited 1:47pm
15:48

I have closed the trade: 2x - 20 pips

the anticipated move went to +20 but then it retraced. possibly in continuation of the downtrend.


total: - 40 pips


18:14

summary:

my 2nd "pro" was actually a "con" for a trading plan of this size.

[ pro:
the trading opportunity would probably disappear while waiting for the
17:00 gmt candle.]

it does show that I was trigger happy and unpatient for the indicators to
form.

reminds me of Phillip saying: "I'd rather miss a good trade than be in a bad one"

I apprechiate comments and corrections


Greetings[/quote]

Ashes, good self-analysis! You're on the way now. You and I have a similar problem, in that we don't want to miss out on trades. That is something I've been working on, and you will have to do the same. Phillip is constantly reminding us not to overtrade, and we must listen to him. Observe how he and other experienced traders on the thread use support and resistance. They don't consider those areas to be walls blocking further motion. They usually wait to see how price reacts around those areas of support and resistance, to see if price breaks through or retreats. Search through this thread hastily, and see how many times you can find something similar to the words, "I will wait." I'll bet that we would find many instances.

A further thought: Something you and I must repeat to ourselves like a mantra, "Wait for the candle to close!"
  • #7,574
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:19pm Oct 22, 2007 5:19pm
Quoting ejiexe
Does my trend line make sense? I am expecting it to reach 2.0160 or even below.
Yes, your line makes sense. This is looking at the wide picture for the move...not for a tp on a current short? If you look at the chart for the last month or so, notice how price has stayed within a range (except for the breakout last week which closed back within the range and traveled to the bottom and bounced (it is a sideways range w/a few false breakouts). Cable is also in a flag formation on the daily...interesting...Have no idea where it will go as price has been choppy overall....Price did bounce on a support line today (former resistance line broken that has been providing support for the consolidation pattern drawn on daily from 8/5 high to 9/11 high and it converged with an uptrend support line drawn from 8/16 through 9/19 lows) -- if this area gives, the 89 on daily would be next area to watch and then your interest point). Wouldn't expect a straight fall either -- probably more choppy action. Nice job on recognizing the channel.

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #7,575
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:36pm Oct 22, 2007 5:36pm
Quoting OldDog
15:48

I have closed the trade: 2x - 20 pips

the anticipated move went to +20 but then it retraced. possibly in continuation of the downtrend.


total: - 40 pips


18:14

summary:

my 2nd "pro" was actually a "con" for a trading plan of this size.

[ pro:
the trading opportunity would probably disappear while waiting for the
17:00 gmt candle.]

it does show that I was trigger happy and unpatient for the indicators to
form.

reminds me of Phillip saying: "I'd rather miss a good trade than be in a bad one"

I apprechiate comments and corrections


Greetings
Ashes, good self-analysis! You're on the way now. You and I have a similar problem, in that we don't want to miss out on trades. That is something I've been working on, and you will have to do the same. Phillip is constantly reminding us not to overtrade, and we must listen to him. Observe how he and other experienced traders on the thread use support and resistance. They don't consider those areas to be walls blocking further motion. They usually wait to see how price reacts around those areas of support and resistance, to see if price breaks through or retreats. Search through this thread hastily, and see how many times you can find something similar to the words, "I will wait." I'll bet that we would find many instances.

A further thought: Something you and I must repeat to ourselves like a mantra, "Wait for the candle to close!"[/quote]


Nice advice to Ashes, Old Dog! Waiting for a candle to close is very important (if you are using 1 hour to "jump ahead" then you must wait for the 1 hour to close). Plan your trade ahead of time, then wait for your conditions to be met, then enter. 1-2-3...Plan...Wait...Enter

This is a point I'd like to make to those trader's who just trade signals: if one is trading solely on the MACD signal (only from the indicator), it is impossible to determine where your stop loss should go...You are mixing apples and oranges. If your entry is based on price action w/MACD confirmation for direction a stop is easily figured based on the highest/lowest point of the entry pattern/area. Trading from the indicator alone requires a large "emergency" stop, while trading from price patterns allows you to limit your risk. Example: I traded Cable Short based on Fundamental Reasons on Friday (Not a 4 Hour Trade but used MACD to confirm momentum/direction and probability of move down). Because I wasn't trading price, I didn't know exactly where a stop should go, but I wanted to protect myself from G-7 surprises. The stop was figured by using what I thought would be resistance (a double high from previous swing high pattern at 2.0549 on daily and adding 50 pips to it for wiggle room.)...Had I been trading price action, I would have timed my entry to better correspond with the 2.0549 level identified and kept the stop within 30ish pips....do you see the difference & what I am trying to say?

Hope this clicked for someone...

Pips
  • #7,576
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:37pm Oct 22, 2007 5:37pm
Quoting ejiexe
Can someone tell me about Northfinance. I notice it was requoting most of the time I wanted too enter into a trade. When I tried to enter same time on MIG, it was'nt requoting. Is everything ok with Northfinance? Please, I want great people of this forum to advice. I am sorry to have deviate from the topic.
Don't know anything about either broker, but it is fairly common to get requotes in a market that is moving fast if you are trying to enter at market w/a specific price to limit slippage. Just part of the game if you are entering with market movement.....
  • #7,577
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:44pm Oct 22, 2007 5:44pm
Welcome to all the new members (and a special hello to Shreem...Welcome back!!)!

I see some of you are going live for the first time! Congrats!! This is a very exciting time for you! Looks like most have demo traded and have a feel for what they are doing...very important stuff!

Remember not to overtrade....Remember not to look for a trade (plan for one and let it come to you)...Focus on what the market is telling you. Continue to work hard, study your trades, study the market and realize sucess is within your grasp (but it will most likely take longer than you originally expected). Also, if possible....start your first account w/25% of your trading capital...this way you protect the bulk for when you really are good at making pips and have as much behind you as possible!

OK...I'm done for the day....Happy pipping all!

Pips
  • #7,578
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:11pm Oct 22, 2007 6:11pm
"Wait for the candle to close!!!" I agree 100%. If the 4hr has another hour and 30 minutes to go and there is a Rb or Rt 'showing' don't get jumpy and get in early. I've seen it many times, and done it also. You get in thinking you're beating the candle only to see it head back in the original direction and you're now pip negative. Wait for it to close. The only reason to get in early with this method is using the 1hr to get in on a Tc per the 4hr chart.

I've been thoroughly distracted these past few days. I've been working on an entry method on the 15 minute chart that uses the 4hr MACD strategy chart as direction. This ain't easy. Either way, I'm doing my best to keep up with everything. Wild morning aye?

Pip on!
  • #7,579
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:23pm Oct 22, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting Doji Star
Well done, Edonya!

I only wish I was awake to take that one myself! Great trading and trade management!Another confirmation for your trade was the bullish MACD divergence that co-incided with the Double Bottom MACD signal. For those traders that, like me, don't always remember to check for divergence, I found this MACD Divergence indicator that you can overlay in the 4hr MACD window of your chart. Just change the divergence MACD settings to 5:13:1 and it'll automatically draw the divergence lines on your chart.The up/down arrows (buy/sell signals) co-incide nicely with 4hr MACD signals sometimes, as was the case here.

Wishing you all many pips.

Hi thanks for this indicator...I'm lookinf for this one couple time ago
{Promotion Removed}
  • #7,580
  • Oct 22, 2007 8:12pm Oct 22, 2007 8:12pm
Hello Pips4uandme, thank for the welcome. Happy to see that you are still active on this thread. I am very happy to be back with you all. This thread is really great.

Phillip, your daily wrap-up was excellent. You give an excellent advise about focusing to 2 or 3 pairs only and sticking with them. This system really works if people give it enough time to sink its principles deeply in their minds. The 13 lessons and the motion and rythm of the market are really the cornestone of this system. Once one can ingrained them deeply in one's mind, success will be very near.

But as every business in the world, it takes a lot of dedication, focus, discipline, hard work, patience, control of one's emotions, clear and defined trading plan followed every single day the same way without fail and a lot of experience through great lenght of screening time.

Only with that kind of passion and desire to succeed, one can become a true professional trader.

As for myself, after being an active member of this great forum, I have stopped to use it for some time only to find out that this system is really the one which is the nearest to my style and personality. Also, having Phillip, a trully genuine and gifted teacher plus all the great active participants, make one feel this thread as one's own community.

So, to help myself to get back on track, I have already begun re-reading the whole thread single post by single post (currently at page 75) and following every MP3 and attachment of Phillip and others.

By doing this, it creates discipline and patience in me (2 of my bad defects) so that one day I can become totally physically, mentally and emotionally prepared to make a true full time success of it.

Sorry for the long post but after listening to the daily MP3 of Phillip, I wanted to share my view point to all detractors of this method and new members and to reinforce the importance of taking all the time necessary to learn and understand this great method, not matter how many days, week or months.

Sincerely

Shreem
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