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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #121
  • Oct 20, 2007 8:10am Oct 20, 2007 8:10am
Quoting haniam
Mon. 15, 2007: 4 trades for +83 pips.

Tue. 16, 2007: 5 trades for +93 pips

Wed. 17, 2007: 6 trades for +87 pips.

Thu. 18, 2007: 2 trades for +15 pips. Still have 7 opened positions. Was away from my trades when I could close them and I am still hanging with these trades and Tp missed by 2 pips! Bad. I may have to close them for a loss.

Fri. 19, 2007: 3 trades for +26 pips instead of getting 104 pips I would have if I was not stuck in Thursday trades. This is a live example on why you should not get married to your trades, you will miss plenty of pips and you may add the bigger loss on closing your old trades at higher prices.

3nd week results: +304 pips

Oct. 2007 results: +704 pips
well done haniam,very impressive result!and thanks for your feedback for the brokers.besides,can u post your chart with your Technical Analysis to support your entry?
  • #122
  • Oct 20, 2007 11:24am Oct 20, 2007 11:24am
Quoting amenlo9
well done haniam,very impressive result!and thanks for your feedback for the brokers.besides,can u post your chart with your Technical Analysis to support your entry?
Thank you amenlo9.

Posting live into this thread is already a time consuming and letting me miss sometime good trades or an exit of the trade.

But I will try to post a chart from time to time. Maybe during the W.E. to illustrate some of the trades taken and for 'educational' purpose as much as I find a need from readers feedback.

Hani
  • #123
  • Oct 20, 2007 11:40am Oct 20, 2007 11:40am
Quoting findcount
hi haniam......

you mentioned that the xxx/jpy carry trades are your main concerns.........

mind if you share some of your strategies and your insights regarding the recent possible unwind ?
Welcome findcount to the thread.

I don't remember mentioning any thing about carry trades in this thread.
Maybe you read about this in another one?

This thread is mainly about Big Dogs and how to avoid their trap, taking EUR/USD as illustration.

I know that lot of beginners are reading this and I am focusing only on EU to avoid confusion so carry trades are out of subject for now. So I will talk very briefly about this in relation with BD in a future post.

I would be glad to answer any other question within the topic.

Regards,

Hani
  • #124
  • Oct 21, 2007 1:02am Oct 21, 2007 1:02am
Quoting haniam
Welcome findcount to the thread.

I don't remember mentioning any thing about carry trades in this thread.
Maybe you read about this in another one?

This thread is mainly about Big Dogs and how to avoid their trap, taking EUR/USD as illustration.

I know that lot of beginners are reading this and I am focusing only on EU to avoid confusion so carry trades are out of subject for now. So I will talk very briefly about this in relation with BD in a future post.

I would be glad to answer any other question within the topic.

Regards,

Hani
most sorry ........i re-read the thread and indeed i seems to be preoccupied with the impending carry trade unwinding.....no doubt another of the BD's devious schemes.......

i saw you mentioned about D.C. Bonta.........i was directed to his website FXNationLive.com somehow and he boasted to have been a top trader for the big banks and designed their strategies.

Bonta even claim to have an indicator not found anywhere else that shows if the banks are buying or selling before the news !!!

what is your take on this guy ??
  • #125
  • Edited 5:22am Oct 21, 2007 5:14am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting findcount
most sorry ........i re-read the thread and indeed i seems to be preoccupied with the impending carry trade unwinding.....no doubt another of the BD's devious schemes.......

i saw you mentioned about D.C. Bonta.........i was directed to his website FXNationLive.com somehow and he boasted to have been a top trader for the big banks and designed their strategies.

Bonta even claim to have an indicator not found anywhere else that shows if the banks are buying or selling before the news !!!

what is your take on this guy ??
I don't want to give any direct opinion about a person or a commercial system since this is outside of the topic of this thread and FF policy. But I will give my way of thinking about Awesome Indicators and the Holy Grail quest.

The typical trader is always in research of the perfect indicator that will let him beat the market. Well I found it!

I had to search into myself for the Holy Grail quest and I finally understood that the only Holy Grail is my brain.

I may give you a system with 95% winning and still most traders will be losing.

Why? Because how I see and interpret a market situation is different for every trader and what would work great for one may lead others to disaster.

I myself can trade with any of the 'standard' indicators as RSI alone and make lot of pips.

So limit yourself to 1 or 2 indicators you like, know exactly how they work, and become a pips harvestor!

Hope this helps,

Hani
  • #126
  • Oct 21, 2007 2:43pm Oct 21, 2007 2:43pm
From ICWR Forex Trading Strategy by Quantum Glob Inc.:

"A school of thought is advocated by financial TV and radio stations, investment firms, brokerages etc… “Surprisingly” they are all trying to portray financial markets as an idyllic place where happy Moms, Dads and Grandpas use sophisticated software to place winning trades from their laptops while vacationing on sandy Caribbean beaches…

Countless “talking heads” are enjoying their daily parade on TV channels such as CNBC or CNN supplying mostly worthless advice to general public. Their “analysts” change their opinion every day in a fashion that even George Orwell would find hard to comprehend.

And everything they say always seems to “make sense” at the moment when they are saying it. Next day, when it turns out that they were totally wrong, they are telling you an entirely different story as if yesterday never happened. And if you noticed, the hosts never, ever bring that up. Why? Well, “the show must go on”.

They have to show you that every day you are missing on countless trading opportunities; you just need to watch their shows, subscribe to fancy software that they sell you and you are on your way to early retirement."
  • #127
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:18am Oct 22, 2007 12:18am
Here's a small document that describes the four Forex Market Conditions.

Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Forex Market Conditions.zip   134 KB | 421 downloads
  • #128
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:34am Oct 22, 2007 12:34am
Trade 1: Sold @1.4340 covered @1.4330 for +10 pips
Reason: Price gap ranging. Selling top of range in the gap direction targeting the other side of the range.
  • #129
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:04am Oct 22, 2007 1:04am
My pivot level for today is 1.43

The break of this level is giving the EU a new push to up with a mid term target of 1.4450, 1.4350 forming a first resistance.

The rise is slow and shy, in difference to all new high level breaks I closely watched where EU went like a bullet hundred of pips in few days.

What is in play? There are more buyers than sellers for the moment, that's sure. But the buyers are not anger to take all what they can get. The buyers are not convinced of this up move yet, afraid of these high levels of no man's land.

While it is over 1.43, the EU is riskier than usual. It may go suddenly to test briefly some new highs, 1.4369, 1.44...

We are in a choppy market in the first day of the business week.
I will go in both sides, selling and buying bounces with smaller targets of 7-15 pips until 1.43 is broken down, then I will sell the break up bounce targeting 1.4275 and 1.4250
  • #130
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:04am Oct 22, 2007 2:04am
In the most common version of this strategy, an investor borrows a given amount in a low-interest-rate currency (the "funding" currency), converts the funds into a high-interest-rate currency (the "target" currency) and lends the resulting amount in the target currency at the higher interest rate.

Why can carry trades be profitable? If the exchange rate between the funding and the target currencies does not move, then the profit from the carry trade is proportional to both the interest rate differential and the forward premium between the two currencies.

But, of course, exchange rates do move, and, therefore, a carry trade involves exchange rate risk, in particular, the possibility that the target currency will depreciate against the funding currency. In that case, the value of the amount initially borrowed in the funding currency will increase in terms of the target currency, effectively increasing the borrowing cost of the strategy.

By the same token, the higher interest rate obtained by lending in the target currency will be worth less in terms of the funding currency, ultimately trimming its profitability.

If the carry trade is a risky strategy, why are investors reported to use it extensively? The answer lies in the "forward premium puzzle." This is a well-known empirical anomaly of foreign exchange markets, and it concerns the implications of the forward premium for the realized rate of change in the value of one currency relative to another.

Empirical evidence shows that currencies that are at a forward premium and that, correspondingly, have a low interest rate, actually tend, on average, to depreciate, not appreciate, as the theory of interest parity conditions predicts.

Similarly, currencies that are at a forward discount and that, correspondingly, have a high interest rate, tend, on average, to appreciate, not depreciate.

This anomaly, then, implies that an investor who enters a carry trade is quite likely to make predictable profits from two sources: the interest rate differential between two currencies and the appreciation of the high-interest-rate currency that was originally bought at a forward discount.
  • #131
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:21am Oct 22, 2007 2:21am
Trade 2: Sold 1 lot @1.4328 targeting 10-15 pips
Trade 3: Sold 1 lot @1.4335 targeting 10-15 pips
Reason: Prices trying to go up but bouncing on 1.4330-35 level.

Today we have no news.

Breaking the 1.4300-05 level is important to confirm selling for a down move.
Else 1.4350 can be tested later in the day.
  • #132
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:37am Oct 22, 2007 2:37am
Quoting haniam
Trade 2: Sold 1 lot @1.4328 targeting 10-15 pips
Trade 3: Sold 1 lot @1.4335 targeting 10-15 pips
Reason: Prices trying to go up but bouncing on 1.4330-35 level.

Today we have no news.

Breaking the 1.4300-05 level is important to confirm selling for a down move.
Else 1.4350 can be tested later in the day.
Trade 2: Closed @1.4312 for +16 pips
Trade 3: Closed @1.4309 for +26 pips

I could have bought @1.4300 as bounce here is expected, for a quick 10 pips. But I am not convinced of the bull move for today

Will sell again @1.4317 and 1.4325 targeting 1.43 and 1.4282
  • #133
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:56am Oct 22, 2007 2:56am
Carry Traders buys pairs that have the highest interest against the currency that have the lowest

JPY is the currency with the lowest interest rate at 0.5%

GBP/JPY is the most rewarding currency in term of interest return (Know as SWAP or Overnight rollover) and thus is the most bought currency.
But it's move are very choppy with often 200-400 pips per day. Dangerous.

So carry traders do buy other currencies with much less volatility as AUD/JPY, EUR/GPY and CHF/JPY

This is one of the reasons why these currencies are doing all time high level records.

And here is a big BD trick!
  • #134
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:58am Oct 22, 2007 4:58am
Quoting haniam
Trade 2: Closed @1.4312 for +16 pips
Trade 3: Closed @1.4309 for +26 pips

I could have bought @1.4300 as bounce here is expected, for a quick 10 pips. But I am not convinced of the bull move for today

Will sell again @1.4317 and 1.4325 targeting 1.43 and 1.4282
Trade 4: Sold @1.4295 closed @1.4285 for +10 pips
Reason: Will sell back on 1.43 and 1.4317 or on 1.4280 break

Was not able to take the sell @1.4317 (connection problems again!). Hope you did and got between 15 and 35 pips!
  • #135
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:16am Oct 22, 2007 5:16am
Quoting haniam
Trade 4: Sold @1.4295 closed @1.4285 for +10 pips
Reason: Will sell back on 1.43 and 1.4317 or on 1.4280 break

Was not able to take the sell @1.4317 (connection problems again!). Hope you did and got between 15 and 35 pips!
I missed the sell back @1.4280 because of live posting in the journal!
I would have taken profit @1.4260 for 20 pips as planed.

This level has been briefly tested given more strengh to the bears and opening a more down side, but we will have a retrace first.

Will sell back for a mid term trade @1.4280, 1.43 and 1.4315 depending on price action targeting 1.4240, 1.4210 and even maybe 1.4190 on a longer term. Stops are @1.4365-80 for now.

If for any reason 1.4180 is taken in the coming 2 days, we will have much more move down.
  • #136
  • Edited 5:49am Oct 22, 2007 5:42am | Edited 5:49am
Quote
I missed the sell back @1.4280 because of live posting in the journal!
I would have taken profit @1.4260 for 20 pips as planed.

Hi Hani

Sorry you missed your trade whilst posting live in ths journal. I am sure you will make it all back and many times over for the help you are giving to other traders.
Have been away for the past two weeks and have been catching up here with all the useful information.
Many thanks for the education.

Regards,
Bakuli
  • #137
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:51am Oct 22, 2007 6:51am
mr Haniam..........i try not to address you as Hani (honey)........

many thanks for your advice and certainly your rules make lots of sense......

seems that you always win on the eur/usd...........mind if you let us know your trades before you take them ?

if i can master Jacko's method in going long on the eur/usdand your method on going short on the eur/usd.........i'll be able to win both ways.........:

do you go long sometimes ?
  • #138
  • Oct 22, 2007 7:43am Oct 22, 2007 7:43am
Hi findcount,
I remember I first came to know about Jacko's thread from one of your post (though you don't know). And then from there I came upon haniam's thread few days back. So I must say thank you to you.
Like you I am also trying to learn both Jacko's method and haniam's method, I believe they can be combined to advantage.
However, simple as it sounds, I have yet to master even Jacko's method. Hopefully I could join into his private group and learn from there.
  • #139
  • Oct 22, 2007 8:55am Oct 22, 2007 8:55am
Quoting haniam
My pivot level for today is 1.43

The break of this level is giving the EU a new push to up with a mid term target of 1.4450, 1.4350 forming a first resistance.

The rise is slow and shy, in difference to all new high level breaks I closely watched where EU went like a bullet hundred of pips in few days.

What is in play? There are more buyers than sellers for the moment, that's sure. But the buyers are not anger to take all what they can get. The buyers are not convinced of this up move yet, afraid of these high levels of no man's land.

While it is over 1.43, the EU is riskier than usual. It may go suddenly to test briefly some new highs, 1.4369, 1.44...

We are in a choppy market in the first day of the business week.
I will go in both sides, selling and buying bounces with smaller targets of 7-15 pips until 1.43 is broken down, then I will sell the break up bounce targeting 1.4275 and 1.4250
The Big Dogs strikes again!

The so expected BD strike happen today suddenly, when all analysis I read was pointing to new highs and the 1.45 target, recommending to go long!

Below three example of these recommendations:

“Monday October 22nd 1:02 AM ET
EUR/USD (1.4312)
Trading range: 1.4245 – 1.4395
Trend: Upward
The G7 send as the expectations bad signals for the dollar. No one is care for the weak dollar. The key finance ministers want to see the dollar at 1.50 and would not make any support. In this scenario most of the traders will open long positions. The crisis in the US housing sector continue and at the same time the fundamental factors remain negative. We recommend opening long positions as buy on dips.”

“Friday's price action managed to print a new high at 1.4320 but the pair closed the week just a few point below the 1.4300 round number. The pair confirmed our expectations of moving higher and it still has some potential to move even further north, like we already mentioned the 1.4500 level is seen by many as a significant bullish target.”

“The Euro found support at 1.4250 on Friday and reversed, resuming the upward trend by re-testing 1.4300 which was broken and now being the first intra-day support. Support follows 1.4300 at 1.4280 and 1.4250. Resistance starts at 1.4330 followed by 1.4350. Daily sentiment is bullish and the hourly studies are positive too. While the Euro holds upon the 1.4250 mark, it may advance higher and find support in the mid 1.43 area, putting some pressure on the 1.4400 level. We are expecting the Friday's low at 1.4250 to act as a good support in case of a retracement.”

Well the fake move I mentioned earlier today was only intended to take all stops down and sell big to get rid of some the old EU bought ‘stock’ at the best price possible. The reaction came at the important support of 1.4135 and we are now on the retracement. But the down move is not yet finished! We may be in a bigger retracement down to 1.36-37. If you go long, beware move like this one again and again in the coming days.

EU started today by doing a new YTD highs at 1.4348, letting trader think that it is time to buy big before the new up move to 1.45.

Now It may recover to 1.4280 and 1.43 with no difficulty (I will be selling herend maybe before ), and still will be in the what I will call the ‘sell mode’! Only a break of 1.4350 level may bring the EU back to a possible ‘buy mode’.

My advice: Beware the Big Dogs!
  • #140
  • Oct 22, 2007 9:01am Oct 22, 2007 9:01am
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Hani

Sorry you missed your trade whilst posting live in ths journal. I am sure you will make it all back and many times over for the help you are giving to other traders.
Have been away for the past two weeks and have been catching up here with all the useful information.
Many thanks for the education.

Regards,
Bakuli
Welcome back Balkuli!
I am sure you did a great work helping your friend.

I am trying not to go too fast in my explanation of the DB behaviors so this is well undertood.

The important is to well understand the market to stop being the small fish

Happy readings,

Hani
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