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Are you willing to share your poor/ bad/ loser/ lousy system? 43 replies

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A Loser System Wanted

  • #81
  • Dec 22, 2006 8:39am Dec 22, 2006 8:39am
Quoting jkmack
90% lose rate does not mean a system is not profitable. Most trendfollowers deal with very high losing percentages but a low percent of capital loss, while thier winners are many multiples of thier risk.

likewise, high win percentage systems tend to create a sense of euphoric arrogance that make people susceptable to over leveraging it until a blackswan event takes them out.


What do MA users do in choppy markets, if they are any good, they get stopped out a lot and endure the draw down until they move into a trendy period. They also trade multiple markets so that portfolio drawdown is not as severe as any one instrument's.


Your time would be more profitably spent, taking a system that has a winning percentage that is acceptable to your psychology and playing with it's money management/risk management, in my humble opinion.
I couldn't agree more. Thanks for sharing your good comment with us.
  • #82
  • Dec 22, 2006 8:42am Dec 22, 2006 8:42am
Quoting anthonyrae
Hello,

As a beginner in FX from what I have gathered on these threads money/risk management is more important than a 'winning' system. Wise decisions on how much to risk when trading will hopefully ensure your account/acpital is protected from unprofitable trades but allows you to maximise the winning trades.

I still have mush to learn about this (money management) so if there are any good sites, threads or tips, please share them with me.. it would be much appreciated !!

Thanks & merry christmas
To learn more about Money Management I recommend the following site:
http://www.adaptrade.com/Articles/index.htm

Good Luck,
Al
  • #83
  • Dec 22, 2006 2:04pm Dec 22, 2006 2:04pm
I have been a very efficient loser in the past, and contemplated the concept of reversing my perspective. I found it very usefull. What I did to lose effectively was use some false criteria to try to predict the direction of the market. The criteria was generally wrong. So I reversed the criteria.

Part of my efficient losing method was that I exited winning trades early, and held on to losing trades in the hope that they would reverse. So I had almost 100% big losses.

The answer, or at least AN answer to your quest:

Take a nice pair like GBP/USD, which ranges all the time. Determine the average length of a trend, say 175 pips. Then after it has gone 175 pips in one direction, enter a trade in the opposite direction with a stop far enough away that only a small percentage of times will the trend carry to the stop. Stay in the trade until it travels the normal distance from its reversal point (not your entry point).

Rationale: I believe that there is a normal distance of travel in one cycle. If one enters only after a long or even very long move in one direction of travel, and then waits to exit until one has captured a large but modest profit, say 125 pips, then the win rate should be very good. The stop should be about 50 to 100 pips, and the T/P about 125 to 175 pips. One can apply other filters to reduce losses, by

1) delaying entries until the travel is longer and,
2) employing criteria to trigger early exits if the trend is waning.

One can also apply tests to delay exits if the trend is strong or a target far away.

The results will be greatly enhanced if you monitor the movements on two time frames. If you detect a general trend in one direction, then trade in that direction only. When that general trend has travelled a very long way and come to a major barrier, then reverse the directional filter.

One can also measure the time duration of a range bound period to calculate the size and time duration of the ensuing trend, based on previous behavior. Then trade in the opposite direction of the previous trend, assuming the previous trend is spent, starting from the far side of the consolidation range, to maximize reward and minimize loss. If there is a consolidation pattern, enter at the perimeter only, and place the stop only 25 pips outside the range. There trades will have large rewards and very small relative risks.

Once the basic algorithm is in place, one can test different variables to optimise performance.
  • #84
  • Dec 22, 2006 2:12pm Dec 22, 2006 2:12pm
See if you like the equity curve.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip TesterGraph.zip   9 KB | 517 downloads
  • #85
  • Apr 25, 2007 7:09am Apr 25, 2007 7:09am
no one reply it, sooo, i guess nobody takes it.... conclusion: a looser strategy.....

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=26748


it is basically you can calculate maximum margin call before you put bull position. so if the equity / reserved fund is enough, you can't goes bankcrupt.

no EA. no indicator, no thing else but money management accompanied with playfull spirit.
  • #86
  • May 25, 2007 10:45pm May 25, 2007 10:45pm
I havnt read the whole thread may be someone already mentioned this or if not here is a tip...
there is no such a thing as a system that loses 99% of the time... but there is a way to get to what you want... find a system that works good for trending markets, and use it for ranging market it will eventually become a 99% lose system... also find a system thats for ranging market and use it for trending market... let me know if this idea works.
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  • #87
  • May 27, 2007 4:47am May 27, 2007 4:47am
Quoting smjones
See if you like the equity curve.

very nice
  • #88
  • May 27, 2007 9:59am May 27, 2007 9:59am
Quoting forexpert310
I havnt read the whole thread may be someone already mentioned this or if not here is a tip...
there is no such a thing as a system that loses 99% of the time... but there is a way to get to what you want... find a system that works good for trending markets, and use it for ranging market it will eventually become a 99% lose system... also find a system thats for ranging market and use it for trending market... let me know if this idea works.
That's an interesting approach.
  • #89
  • May 28, 2007 8:01am May 28, 2007 8:01am
Quoting spartan
It's easy to dismiss his idea but why don't we give it a little more thought?

If a system gives wrong signals more than 90% of the time where

SL = TP + spread

Hmm wait...does it have to be

SL = TP + 2 x spread

to make it reversible for this purpose?

If the spread is 4 pips and you want the TP to be 30, then SL has to be 38.
So that means if your system is wrong 90% of the time with TP at 30 and SL at 38 for example, you would have a system that gives you the right signals 90% of the time when you reverse your entries.

I guess that is what I missed when I thought about the same thing before.
My guess is that it will not be easy to program a system that is wrong more than 90% of the time with fixed TP/SL but it may be interesting to explore a little more to see if something comes up.

Hokey splokey man!!!!!!!!! Most losing trades happen when market is choppy...In this case either direction is gonna lose money... Dh DDDEE DOH DEUHHHHHHHHHHH.
  • #90
  • May 28, 2007 8:28am May 28, 2007 8:28am
Quoting ftraderx
Hokey splokey man!!!!!!!!! Most losing trades happen when market is choppy...In this case either direction is gonna lose money... Dh DDDEE DOH DEUHHHHHHHHHHH.

I disagree - eventually the price will break out of a range in one direction or another. If your entry is short during the choppy period and the price breaks out long, you lose. However, if your entry is long during the choppy period and the price breaks out long, you will make money. All of this is, of course, is if your stop is wide enough so that you don't get stopped out during the choppy period.
  • #91
  • Last Post: May 29, 2007 7:00am May 29, 2007 7:00am
Quoting eagle4x
I disagree - eventually the price will break out of a range in one direction or another. If your entry is short during the choppy period and the price breaks out long, you lose. However, if your entry is long during the choppy period and the price breaks out long, you will make money. All of this is, of course, is if your stop is wide enough so that you don't get stopped out during the choppy period.

The word "if" is the reason why most people lose money trading and few are profitable. And what is "wide enough" ? And if the price breaks out long or short and then reverses, which happens as often as not, then you don't make money. But my real issue is that you can't assume a losing system will make money if you reverse the entry signal. This is such a shallow view of trading I am suspicious of what experience people have here trading profitably. I wish these forums didn't automatically subscribe one to a thread just because of a post or visit.

Here is your system: Enter long, immediately exit. You lose spread. 100% losing system. Reverse that.
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