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CHART Reading for serious traders

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 24, 2007 5:48am Oct 19, 2007 12:04pm | Edited Oct 24, 2007 5:48am
The purpose of this forum is to help one another develope chart reading skills. Please do not post your trades unless you can give a reason for entering the market.

If you are a more experienced trader and would like to share your expertise, please be patient with those less experienced. Please respect all others who participate. All questions are welcomed as long as they are in regards to trading. I mainly trade the GBP/JPY but we can talk about any pair.

This is not a chat room to kill time during the trading day. This forum is for serious traders only, so please refrain from general chit chat.
  • #2
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:12am Oct 21, 2007 10:12am
Looking at the 4 hr chart we have breached the 50% retracenet of the 251.08 to the 219.27 fall back in July and Aug. The price closed friday forming a double bottom at 234.78. I see strong support at 234.54 stemming from the tripple top on sept 7 which upon rejection created a 220 pip drop before retracing. Another strong support at 233.66 from the 9/21 failure (top) which created a 393 pip drop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hr GJ.jpg Size: 185 KB
  • #3
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:18am Oct 21, 2007 10:18am
Head and shoulders on the 1 hr has formed ( a little skewed) With the right shoulder being at approximately 235.93 which also happens to be close to the 200 ema price on the 4 hr(236.01) (yellow line = 200 ema)
We have no idea what the open of the market will being tonight with all of the Findamentals coming into play so strongly. A nice plan of action to sell below 234.43 should the double bottom be broken or if a bounce occurs at the open, maybe sell a failure into the 4 hr 200 ema. (JUST THINKING OUT LOUD)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 HR.jpg Size: 182 KB
  • #4
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:27am Oct 21, 2007 10:27am
The G/J may do its own thing tonight but we need to keep a watch on the dow. THe dow is sitting right on top of the 200 ema on the 4 hr chart with support just beneath at around 13469. Should the dow bounce off of the 200 ema, it may also cause the G/J to bounce and give a retrace up to the 200ema on the 4 hr at 236.01.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW.jpg Size: 240 KB
  • #5
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:47am Oct 21, 2007 10:47am
Would consider the break of the double bottom as a complete candle closing below the resistance line on the one hour timeframe?
  • #6
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:49am Oct 21, 2007 10:49am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Would consider the break of the double bottom as a complete candle closing below the resistance line on the one hour timeframe?
A close on the 1 hr below the double bottom of 234.79 would most likely signal short. I never look at a spike thru a support as a true break. Only a close below would be a true break.
  • #7
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:52am Oct 21, 2007 10:52am
Quoting et_phonehome_2
Would consider the break of the double bottom as a complete candle closing below the resistance line on the one hour timeframe?
I usually allow a break to happen and then wait for a retrace to sell into. (or buy into if going long)
  • #8
  • Oct 21, 2007 11:07am Oct 21, 2007 11:07am
Should the dow bounce and begin to recover its losses from last week, I wouldnt want to buy the g/j unless the price opened above the 200 ema on
the 4 hr. At that point, I would look to allow the break and open above the 200 ema and then buy a pullback to around the 200 ema. We always have to have a buy and a sell plan.
  • #9
  • Oct 21, 2007 11:45am Oct 21, 2007 11:45am
Regarding fib levels and retracements, is there a generally accepted timeframe for coming up with these support and resistance levels? Or is it completely subjective depending on the tf a trader is using?
  • #10
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:05am Oct 24, 2007 6:05am
Lets Trade!!!
  • #11
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:07am Oct 24, 2007 6:07am
Maybe we can do some real trading and make some pips!!
I need to take a look at this g/j becasue it seems to be a little iffy. Seems there is a downward h/s on the 1 hr but it may be deceiving.
  • #12
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:10am Oct 24, 2007 6:10am
I think it may just be coming back to the 38.2 fib from yesterday at 233.65 to complete setting up the inverse h/s on a larger scale. I will post a chart.
  • #13
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:11am Oct 24, 2007 6:11am
Quoting PipChick
Maybe we can do some real trading and make some pips!!
I need to take a look at this g/j becasue it seems to be a little iffy. Seems there is a downward h/s on the 1 hr but it may be deceiving.
Hi Pipchick
good to see you here, pls do continue to post at my thread, ur analysis is most welcome .
  • #14
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:16am Oct 24, 2007 6:16am
If it breaks that lo of today then it would be violating the inverse H/S and will prolly drop. Otherwise, it may bounce again at the 38.2 (233.65) and head back up to continue forming the inverse.
1 hr chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Plan B.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #15
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:17am Oct 24, 2007 6:17am
Quoting imransait
Hi Pipchick
good to see you here, pls do continue to post at my thread, ur analysis is most welcome .
TY Imran!
  • #16
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:22am Oct 24, 2007 6:22am
sorry to see u leave chicks! (from the other thread)

I do appreciate your input and will contribute wherever i can

now ...do i get free coffee here?
  • #17
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:26am Oct 24, 2007 6:26am
good luck

will visit this thread too

Fer
  • #18
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:26am Oct 24, 2007 6:26am
I enjoy your analysis, I would appreciate you posting them here also or direct us to the link where you usually post them.
  • #19
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:27am Oct 24, 2007 6:27am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
sorry to see u leave chicks! (from the other thread)

I do appreciate your input and will contribute wherever i can

now ...do i get free coffee here?
I am going to make some now and will email a cup to you..hehehe
  • #20
  • Oct 24, 2007 6:30am Oct 24, 2007 6:30am
Quoting PipChick
I am going to make some now and will email a cup to you..hehehe
pipchick..isnt this a HS formation in the 5min chart...ur analysis on this pls
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hs.gif Size: 29 KB
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