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The Daily Fozzy Method

  • #1,401
  • Dec 21, 2006 1:11pm Dec 21, 2006 1:11pm
Quoting Gee Seven
If it was too easy everyone would make money, not just us 10% people.
What business are you in??? It's more like 3-5%...
Mr. Trend
  • #1,402
  • Dec 21, 2006 1:40pm Dec 21, 2006 1:40pm
Gee Seven, what period/settings are you using on for the KC?
Poekmeister

Quoting Gee Seven
I looked at the signals you referred to. Maybe my take will help some. First I like to run Keltner Channels on my charts. When price is high out of the KC it will return. Coordinating that with your other indicators will keep you in sync.That said, look at 12-5, I traded it during that day but the following day would have been a good signal too.Trade held for 3 days and ended at the bottom KC band. Now the signal you took on the 13th was on the exact bounce off the .618 fib retrace of that 12-5 down signal. If it's a new down trend the .618 is key reversal spot to continue the trend.Watch those Fibs especially the .618. On the 20th, that signal day ended at the top Keltner Channel. For me I've got to watch for a continuation. Looking at that day, it had a straight run from post to post. No tail on the candle, an example of "too much too soon". An addage I learned from an S&P trader several years ago.When a bar covers that much ground in a short time, look for a pull back even if it's temporary. The following bar(s) will often go against the strong one for a small amount. AMOF, it retraced and bounced off the .618 (the Fib of that day) today according to my chart. We may see the continuation now.That was a 240 pip day, a "run" of 319 pips if you count the low and high of the adjacent bars.
I also run a 5-3-3 Stochastic. Look at it and you can see how it's crossover is a strong indicator that needs confirmation from the Fozzy to enter a trade.Finally, before you enter your trade switch over to the one hour time frame and trade from a signal on it that goes the way you are trading the daily. It can give you a head start in the right direction.
All things considered there will be misses and losses. It's part of the business. If it was too easy everyone would make money, not just us 10% people.
  • #1,403
  • Dec 21, 2006 5:47pm Dec 21, 2006 5:47pm
Thanks Mr. Trend and Summitfx. I've been on this board only a short time time but the people are so helpful. Amazing really.
Taking Life One Pip At A Time I officially have my own opinion.
  • #1,404
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:27am Dec 22, 2006 3:27am
Beach,Fozzy and everyone else,

a very happy christmas and a great new year to you.

i am off for a few days now.
  • #1,405
  • Dec 22, 2006 10:42am Dec 22, 2006 10:42am
Gee Seven, thanks for your advise.....
I've now been stopped out of my trade though.
Best regards for the holiday season.
  • #1,406
  • Dec 22, 2006 12:13pm Dec 22, 2006 12:13pm
...times must be gettin tougher! <grin>

Quoting Mr Trend
What business are you in??? It's more like 3-5%...
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,407
  • Dec 22, 2006 12:21pm Dec 22, 2006 12:21pm
Allow me to wish all of you a very merry Christmas. As a Christian I've always held Dec. 25th as the date we honor the birth of our Savior and Lord Jesus Christ. I know there is a diversity of beliefs here in the international Forex community and I certainly respect that but neither would I ask of any of you not to express your sentiments on their given date.

Let me not omit wishing you also a Happy and profitable New Year. Now to that I know the Forex community MUST all agree on the same calendar for business purposes <grin>.
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,408
  • Dec 22, 2006 12:30pm Dec 22, 2006 12:30pm
I use 10 period.

Quoting poekmeister
Gee Seven, what period/settings are you using on for the KC?
Poekmeister
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,409
  • Dec 22, 2006 1:19pm Dec 22, 2006 1:19pm
First off, let me say I don't mean in any way to put down the Fozzy method (just in case some interpret it that way). I am grateful to Fozzy for putting it up and to others for refining it and adding so much info.

I'm wondering if I'm the only one here not making money on this method? I have followed it for about a month now in demo and had loss after loss. OK, there's probably something I'm not trading quite right, but I've gone over the posts here carefully. I've tried the approach fozzy originally laid out and then tried the approach that BeachBum (love that nick!) uses so successfully. But I still rack up loss after loss.

The one thing that I am doing differently is that I cannot put orders in right at the open of a new day. I have to put them in about 6-7 p.m. Mountain time because of my job. Could this little variation make such a difference in my results?

I notice that very often the trade goes my direction during the evening and then reverses and goes sharply against me prior to the NY open.

Looking for advice here because I would dearly love to make this method work for me. It seems the most promising one I've found so far for those of us that have day jobs.

Squid
  • #1,410
  • Dec 22, 2006 2:20pm Dec 22, 2006 2:20pm
What were the pairs, date , entry price and EST entry time and exit price, exit time and amount of your last 3 trades. Also what stop loss method are you using?
We'll look them over and see what's up.

Quoting Squid
First off, let me say I don't mean in any way to put down the Fozzy method (just in case some interpret it that way). I am grateful to Fozzy for putting it up and to others for refining it and adding so much info.

I'm wondering if I'm the only one here not making money on this method? I have followed it for about a month now in demo and had loss after loss. OK, there's probably something I'm not trading quite right, but I've gone over the posts here carefully. I've tried the approach fozzy originally laid out and then tried the approach that BeachBum (love that nick!) uses so successfully. But I still rack up loss after loss.

The one thing that I am doing differently is that I cannot put orders in right at the open of a new day. I have to put them in about 6-7 p.m. Mountain time because of my job. Could this little variation make such a difference in my results?

I notice that very often the trade goes my direction during the evening and then reverses and goes sharply against me prior to the NY open.

Looking for advice here because I would dearly love to make this method work for me. It seems the most promising one I've found so far for those of us that have day jobs.

Squid
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in it." -Hamlet Act II
  • #1,411
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:43pm Dec 22, 2006 3:43pm
Howdy Squid,
Some of the questions I have are what are U using as a Stop Loss, you did not mention that other than you place a trade and it goes against you.
Depending on what cross you are trading you are opening your trades way into the Asian session I think you need to go back and do some homework and track what the open of the 5pm EST candle is compared to the time you place the trades. You may find the the crosses with the Yen in it will have a little more movement that may B underway before you get to place your trades.
If this seems to be the challendge you may want to only place trades that have no substantial movement already underway or again only trade non Yen crosses.
Don't know if that helps

Fellow Pip Hunter
Bill
"When there is no peril in the fight there is no glory in the triumph."
  • #1,412
  • Dec 22, 2006 11:31pm Dec 22, 2006 11:31pm
Thanks Gee Seven and Williamk for your responses.

I set the stop at the open or close of the previous day (high if I'm going short and low if I'm going long). Or if that's close to the current price, then I will set it at the high or low of the previous day. I have to admit that sometimes I miss putting the stop in which definitely accounts for some of my losses but not all.

I have traded the major crosses and also eurjpy, gbpjpy, eurgbp, gbpchf (stopped that one because I was really getting killed on it), euraud (another bad one for me).

Bill, I hear what you say about being way into the open of the Asian market. Unfortunately, I'm having trouble with GBP and CHF as well, so I think something else is going on in addition to this. Usually I see that there hasn't been much movement yet when I place the trade.

I really have noticed a pattern where it stays flat or goes a little for or against me until shortly before the NY open (an hour or so) and then it frequently will turn against me.

Gee Seven, I'll compile what you are asking for tomorrow (going to fall asleep if I try it tonight). Maybe someone else can spot what I'm doing wrong.

Thanks again guys!
  • #1,413
  • Dec 23, 2006 2:38pm Dec 23, 2006 2:38pm
Quoting fozzy
Hi Merlin,

I would be honoured. Many thanks.

Fozzy
you got mail
Relax and be happy.
  • #1,414
  • Dec 23, 2006 3:04pm Dec 23, 2006 3:04pm
Hi Summitfx,

Just wondering what systems or method you use to trade, I always find your posts entertaining, I see you in many differnet threads, and was just wondering what your main trading method is?

regards
  • #1,415
  • Dec 26, 2006 11:56am Dec 26, 2006 11:56am
Fozzy,



Read your earlier posts (September) and had to tell you about my love of Bollinger Bands; for me, the “Bollingers” are a (not the) major secondary indicator. In my “method,” I use both the Bollinger Band Width and the Bollinger Percent B. Once you fully understand the beauty of the “Bollingers” and their function as LEADING indicators, you, too, will use them religiously [both are: close, 20, 2].



The BBW (Bollinger Band Width), which I standardized into a linear, non-log 0-100 scale (historic 120-bar) line tells me (confirms) THE ONLY TIME I AM EVER TO ENTER INTO A TRADE. This is on the dips, which should be optimally under .10, but, can, and will, be (much) higher depending on the selected chart’s bar period. The BBW is nothing more than an easy to read graphic rendition of the Bollinger envelopes. The dip is the set-up; the rise is the trigger. To clarify (when I say dip), the entry is (on or after) the RISE after (following) the DIP. (For me, I like displaying this as a “step” line, not a point-to-point line; I feel the accuracy is coloured, tainted and skewed by a point-to-point line.) I enter only on (at) the BBW dips (if my other indicators are in concert); once in a position – I don’t care where the BBW goes. After observing the BBW, you will see it is (can often be) an exit trade management tool. NOTE: THE DIP WILL INDICATE BOTH (EITHER) A LONG OR A SHORT POSITION ENTRY. If you use moving averages as one of your entry indicators, by adding the BBW to your arsenal, you will (if you obey the rules and your other secondary indicators agree) increase your “strength of entry direction accuracy” by 1,000 percent.



The Bollinger Percent B (%b) is very similar to what is referred to as the “moving average wave clock (PIP) angle.” Used as a histogram (base 50), it quite often leads the BBW’s dip. For me, the %b is the best strength (weakness) indicator other than volume or open interest – and, of course, in the world of forex we don’t have volume or open interest as other markets do – so I use the %b to fill that vacuum.



Happy PIPing. Hope this helps you out.



/s/ bfs



memores acti prudentes futuri.
  • #1,416
  • Dec 26, 2006 5:54pm Dec 26, 2006 5:54pm
Quoting bfs
Fozzy,



Read your earlier posts (September) and had to tell you about my love of Bollinger Bands; for me, the “Bollingers” are a (not the) major secondary indicator. In my “method,” I use both the Bollinger Band Width and the Bollinger Percent B. Once you fully understand the beauty of the “Bollingers” and their function as LEADING indicators, you, too, will use them religiously [both are: close, 20, 2].



The BBW (Bollinger Band Width), which I standardized into a linear, non-log 0-100 scale (historic 120-bar) line tells me (confirms) THE ONLY TIME I AM EVER TO ENTER INTO A TRADE. This is on the dips, which should be optimally under .10, but, can, and will, be (much) higher depending on the selected chart’s bar period. The BBW is nothing more than an easy to read graphic rendition of the Bollinger envelopes. The dip is the set-up; the rise is the trigger. To clarify (when I say dip), the entry is (on or after) the RISE after (following) the DIP. (For me, I like displaying this as a “step” line, not a point-to-point line; I feel the accuracy is coloured, tainted and skewed by a point-to-point line.) I enter only on (at) the BBW dips (if my other indicators are in concert); once in a position – I don’t care where the BBW goes. After observing the BBW, you will see it is (can often be) an exit trade management tool. NOTE: THE DIP WILL INDICATE BOTH (EITHER) A LONG OR A SHORT POSITION ENTRY. If you use moving averages as one of your entry indicators, by adding the BBW to your arsenal, you will (if you obey the rules and your other secondary indicators agree) increase your “strength of entry direction accuracy” by 1,000 percent.



The Bollinger Percent B (%b) is very similar to what is referred to as the “moving average wave clock (PIP) angle.” Used as a histogram (base 50), it quite often leads the BBW’s dip. For me, the %b is the best strength (weakness) indicator other than volume or open interest – and, of course, in the world of forex we don’t have volume or open interest as other markets do – so I use the %b to fill that vacuum.



Happy PIPing. Hope this helps you out.



/s/ bfs


Hello,

Could you please post the indicators you are using and perhaps a screen shot as an example?

Thanks.

Jason
  • #1,417
  • Dec 26, 2006 8:19pm Dec 26, 2006 8:19pm
Quoting jlowder
Hello,

Could you please post the indicators you are using and perhaps a screen shot as an example?

Thanks.

Jason

Thanks for asking. It may take me until this Thursday to clean up a screen for a good, clear shot. There are many secondary indicators that I use for re-assurance; I will have to cutout the majority of them, as it is overwhelming to have so much information overloading the screen. I will leave everything necessary for you to replicate and duplicate my method. If, after my posting the screen, there is an interest, I will display the screen in its entirety. Absorbing the totality may take more than a few hours. What you will be able to do (unlike other systems I have examined) is visually back test a month’s worth of 30 minute bar charts in a few seconds. You will be able to judge immediately if this works or does not work. I preface all of this with the warning about trading that I learned many years ago: “wait for your pitch; don’t swing at every ball that comes your way; don’t be impatient; you will know best ones, they’ll have your name written all over them.”

memores acti prudentes futuri.
  • #1,418
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:25am Dec 27, 2006 2:25am
Hi bfs...

I'd like to see this too. Thanks for offering to post for us "Fozzy traders"!
Quoting jlowder
Hello,


Could you please post the indicators you are using and perhaps a screen shot as an example?

Thanks.

Jason
  • #1,419
  • Dec 27, 2006 11:14am Dec 27, 2006 11:14am
I must admit, I haven't read this whole thread but can ssomeone point me to a page where I can read the latest updated rules on this system?

I'm not looking for EAs; I just want the system rules.

Thanks,

JH
  • #1,420
  • Dec 27, 2006 11:27am Dec 27, 2006 11:27am
Quoting Jetheat
I must admit, I haven't read this whole thread but can ssomeone point me to a page where I can read the latest updated rules on this system?

I'm not looking for EAs; I just want the system rules.

Thanks,

JH
There isn't really any updated rules as such.

I think most people are trading the original fozzy setup but with some discretionary changes.

Some aren't using the bollinger bands and just looking at the rsi crossing the ma.

Some are using the Vegas daily fib levels for taking profit.

Some are using the solar wind indicator also as a confirmation of trend changes.

I know it's a pain but you really need to read the whole thread to get an idea of how things have changed and been developed.

It maybe an idea if Fozzy could start some new threads on the variations that people are using. I realise this may take some time though.
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