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  • #221
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:44am Oct 19, 2007 5:44am
Thex.
Your logic sounds sound to me. I just like to use the MACD to get a feel for sentement (direction) at these short time frames. But ya'know I think these guy's with more experience than I ( like Bo) don't even worry about it on this short of a time frame.
How bout it Bo?
  • #222
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:46am Oct 19, 2007 5:46am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo..

I know you don't trade the EURYEN
Hey Dave, although the Euro Yen is a more stable Yen pair, it is still too volatile and is driven conditionally to the stock markets. Trading these pairs on a system of fibs is risky. G/U and E/U run much better with this system.

You will find yourself getting stopped out even though your trade entry was valid. It just may take many hours to reach your target as a result giving you other trade signals in between. Fibs are great on any pair but you need to know many other variables in order to trade Yen on an intraday basis. Longer time frames and fibs are much more accurate on Yen pairs.

I guess my point is, this system was developed for G/U and it's characteristics and even though you can use this idea to a certain degree on any currency pair, it's best to just trade G/U. Unless you know what was going on with Nikkei,Dow, futures, treasuries etc. at the time your trade fails there may not be a clear technical answer for ya (too many fundamentals).

Dow goes up Yen weakens.

Hope this helps Aussie Man!
Robonacci com
  • #223
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:55am Oct 19, 2007 5:55am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo..

I know you don't trade the EURYEN but I wanted to get your analysis on this failed trade. Price has broken the 38 intradady fib to the down side. Price is moving up to test the 38 fib again and we see 2 very wicky candles rejected by the 38 intraday fib. The next candle is a bearish candle and I entered @ 165.11 (green circle). This was at the bottom of the candle before it closed, price rose up from my entry and the candle closed @ 165.20. I placed a SL at the 50 intraday fib @ 165.51. As you can see price went up to 165.59 and stopped me out and then truned around and went back down. Was this a valid entry or was I in too early? Just wanted to get your feedback on the trade. I may have placed my SL to high where would you have placed a SL?
If you pull a swing fib off the move down of that day what does it show. looks like it was making higher lows too, the 1900 candle looks like the entry on that one.For a stop an opening above the 50 or Long fib.
  • #224
  • Oct 19, 2007 6:20am Oct 19, 2007 6:20am
Actually tonight is kinda hectic.The early Long went for BE, I took the short on the break of Intraday short fib..lost 28 on that move. Waited and the intraday long fib broke again so i am long again at 2.0469..maybe this time it will go
  • #225
  • Oct 19, 2007 6:39am Oct 19, 2007 6:39am
Closing this long too for 19 pips, just gonna follow alomg for a while may go long again if the high breaks
  • #226
  • Oct 19, 2007 6:48am Oct 19, 2007 6:48am
Quoting SKUNNY
Hey Dave, although the Euro Yen is a more stable Yen pair, it is still too volatile and is driven conditionally to the stock markets. Trading these pairs on a system of fibs is risky. G/U and E/U run much better with this system.

You will find yourself getting stopped out even though your trade entry was valid. It just may take many hours to reach your target as a result giving you other trade signals in between. Fibs are great on any pair but you need to know many other variables in order to trade Yen on an intraday basis. Longer time frames and fibs are much more accurate on Yen pairs.

I guess my point is, this system was developed for G/U and it's characteristics and even though you can use this idea to a certain degree on any currency pair, it's best to just trade G/U. Unless you know what was going on with Nikkei,Dow, futures, treasuries etc. at the time your trade fails there may not be a clear technical answer for ya (too many fundamentals).

Dow goes up Yen weakens.

Hope this helps Aussie Man!
There ya go, you may want to ask Skunny that one he trades the Yen crosses
  • #227
  • Oct 19, 2007 12:37pm Oct 19, 2007 12:37pm
Hey Thex;
In light of todays ranging I took another look at your 5 minute approach. You just might have something there.
Has some promise. May be another good tool in Bo's system.
  • #228
  • Oct 19, 2007 12:56pm Oct 19, 2007 12:56pm
The 5 minute thing may blow up with future observations, it's something I started looking at a few days ago to try integrating price action (rather than trying to find a grail indicator) because no matter how good a system is I don't feel so comfortable with mechanical entry after all I've seen.

With my luck, one of these days we'll see an entry on the 1 hour after a thrust move, confirm it is valid on a smaller price action view, then get in and it'll reverse on us and there goes the theory. But I'm a pessimist (and I should be with money that isn't mine yet). But even then it may help filter just a few more bad trades so that's all we can aim for, not 100% perfection.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #229
  • Oct 19, 2007 1:25pm Oct 19, 2007 1:25pm
On the bright side, when you zoom out and look at the 1 hour after today you see the 62 envelope has started aiming definitively up and the day's price action remains above it, supporting our hopes for ultimately a long break somewhere in the works after piercing a few recent highs.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #230
  • Oct 19, 2007 4:02pm Oct 19, 2007 4:02pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo..

I know you don't trade the EURYEN but I wanted to get your analysis on this failed trade. Price has broken the 38 intradady fib to the down side. Price is moving up to test the 38 fib again and we see 2 very wicky candles rejected by the 38 intraday fib. The next candle is a bearish candle and I entered @ 165.11 (green circle). This was at the bottom of the candle before it closed, price rose up from my entry and the candle closed @ 165.20. I placed a SL at the 50 intraday fib @ 165.51. As you can see price went up to 165.59 and stopped me out and then truned around and went back down. Was this a valid entry or was I in too early? Just wanted to get your feedback on the trade. I may have placed my SL to high where would you have placed a SL?
Hi Bo...

I wasn't looking for an analysis of the yen cross per say, I just wanted some feedback on the mechanics of the trade set up. In this case it looked like a valid rejection of the intraday 38 fib to the short side. Are there any other factors you would have looked at before pushing the button on this one?
  • #231
  • Oct 19, 2007 4:39pm Oct 19, 2007 4:39pm
Quoting Bobokus
On this instance I entered on the 1st candle to open beyong the Intraday long fib..it was short lived though the trendline held again and price began to plummet.I was counting on the trendline breaking on the second attempt but it held again and i let it run against me for about 20 pips and closed the long, I reversed my position then ,since we moved back into the trading zone...counting on it to test the lower end or the Intraday short fib, it did i also added another short position at that point counting on the Intraday short fib to give way but it held and left a reversal candle so i had to close all 3 shorts at that point and played the reversal back to the Intraday long fib where i have shorted the failure there again counting on the Intraday short fib to give way again.
Hi Bo,

Sorry to go back to a very early post, but I had some questions about post 86.

Yoru first entery was long on the close of the candle outside the 61 intraday fib. It reversed and you entered when it closed back inside the trading zone box. My first question is why did you enter a short position here, wouldn't you normally wait until the 38 intraday fib is broken before entering short?

After that the 38 intraday fib was broken and you entered another short position but a reversal candle formed and closed. You then entered a long position on the next candle looking for a test of the 61 intraday fib. I thought the idea was not to trade within the trading zone 38-61 intraday fibs? What made you sure enough to enter these positions?
  • #232
  • Oct 19, 2007 6:55pm Oct 19, 2007 6:55pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo...

I wasn't looking for an analysis of the yen cross per say, I just wanted some feedback on the mechanics of the trade set up. In this case it looked like a valid rejection of the intraday 38 fib to the short side. Are there any other factors you would have looked at before pushing the button on this one?


That is how i would have traded it from what I could see from your chart. There are alot of factors that would come in to play..what were the longer term fib levels was it making a bounce from one of those.Was there a news event causing the bounce , I honestly cannot make a call on a currency that I dont follow, for now lets just stick to GBP/USD so we dont get too far off topic.
  • #233
  • Oct 19, 2007 6:59pm Oct 19, 2007 6:59pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo,

Sorry to go back to a very early post, but I had some questions about post 86.

Yoru first entery was long on the close of the candle outside the 61 intraday fib. It reversed and you entered when it closed back inside the trading zone box. My first question is why did you enter a short position here, wouldn't you normally wait until the 38 intraday fib is broken before entering short?

After that the 38 intraday fib was broken and you entered another short position but a reversal candle formed and closed. You then entered a long position on the next candle looking for a test of the 61 intraday fib. I thought the idea was not to trade within the trading zone 38-61 intraday fibs? What made you sure enough to enter these positions?

Im not showing all I know here just helping others begin to understand fibs and i will refrain from posting those type trades in the future as this too may get too far off topic as well. Good thing you pointed that out, its so natural at this point I dont realize Im doing several things at once.
  • #234
  • Oct 19, 2007 7:01pm Oct 19, 2007 7:01pm
Quoting Thexder
On the bright side, when you zoom out and look at the 1 hour after today you see the 62 envelope has started aiming definitively up and the day's price action remains above it, supporting our hopes for ultimately a long break somewhere in the works after piercing a few recent highs.
I agree Ive been hoping we could get a continuation move for weeks now in either direction, this ranging is making things difficult..and it shows in my performance today.
  • #235
  • Oct 19, 2007 7:16pm Oct 19, 2007 7:16pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo,

Sorry to go back to a very early post, but I had some questions about post 86.

After that the 38 intraday fib was broken and you entered another short position but a reversal candle formed and closed. You then entered a long position on the next candle looking for a test of the 61 intraday fib.

Looking back, I'm a little curious as well. Looks like the reversal after the short failed, involved among other possible things, a play of a pin bar on a 1 hour time frame (reliability undetermined onthis time frame?)

This is the sort of thing I'm trying to add to my fib understanding, I'm trying to determine when it's best to take an additional perspective because I'd feel blind otherwise. I would be foolish to just try to find "one" method or system alone so I'm developing my analysis skills with fibs as a basis.

Maybe that's why I was a bit confused early on, I saw moves like that playing out and I couldn't grasp the "rules" but with each day, I gain more clarity. Although I can't say I would know how to keep bouncing around within the fib range, when or why...
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #236
  • Oct 19, 2007 7:18pm Oct 19, 2007 7:18pm
Quoting Thexder
The 5 minute thing may blow up with future observations, it's something I started looking at a few days ago to try integrating price action (rather than trying to find a grail indicator) because no matter how good a system is I don't feel so comfortable with mechanical entry after all I've seen.

With my luck, one of these days we'll see an entry on the 1 hour after a thrust move, confirm it is valid on a smaller price action view, then get in and it'll reverse on us and there goes the theory. But I'm a pessimist (and I should be with money that isn't mine yet). But even then it may help filter just a few more bad trades so that's all we can aim for, not 100% perfection.
Yea the 5 Min thing may be a little off topic as well, I appreciate your approach but it may be too much for newer traders to follow with what we are doing now with the 1 hour. Before bringing something new light to it needs to be forward tested in the background for an extended period of time. I can tell you from my experience any chart that fast is gonna burn ya.
Trading currency i feel is a skill developed over time, what I mean is that if you give a new trader a mechanical system and an experienced trader the same mechanical system which one do you think will prosper with it? Pure mechanical trading is only a tool just like Fibs are only a tool, the more experience you gain by using them the more usefull they will become to you.
Your never gonna have 100% perfection in any trading method. There is no holy grail to trading especially in a market that the conditions are always changing.
  • #237
  • Oct 19, 2007 7:22pm Oct 19, 2007 7:22pm
Quoting Thexder
Looking back, I'm a little curious as well. Looks like the reversal after the short failed, involved among other possible things, a play of a pin bar on a 1 hour time frame (reliability undetermined onthis time frame?)

This is the sort of thing I'm trying to add to my fib understanding, I'm trying to determine when it's best to take an additional perspective because I'd feel blind otherwise. I would be foolish to just try to find "one" method or system alone so I'm developing my analysis skills with fibs as a basis.

Maybe that's why I was a bit confused early on, I saw moves like that playing out and I couldn't grasp the "rules" but with each day, I gain more clarity. Although I can't say I would know how to keep bouncing around within the fib range, when or why...
Thats it that is what it takes..You find what works for you and you alone..throw the rest away. If its the 5Min thing that works for you then thats what you do, then develope your way of trading with it .Then you fine tune it and fine tune it and fine tune it.Untill one day you realize wow my account is growing.
  • #238
  • Oct 19, 2007 7:26pm Oct 19, 2007 7:26pm
Quoting Thexder
Looking back, I'm a little curious as well. Looks like the reversal after the short failed, involved among other possible things, a play of a pin bar on a 1 hour time frame (reliability undetermined onthis time frame?)

This is the sort of thing I'm trying to add to my fib understanding, I'm trying to determine when it's best to take an additional perspective because I'd feel blind otherwise. I would be foolish to just try to find "one" method or system alone so I'm developing my analysis skills with fibs as a basis.

Maybe that's why I was a bit confused early on, I saw moves like that playing out and I couldn't grasp the "rules" but with each day, I gain more clarity. Although I can't say I would know how to keep bouncing around within the fib range, when or why...

Same thing... I need to stop posting things that arnt in line with what the thread is about it will only confuse. I dont show all of how i trade or my complete method here just showing the help that fibs can give to a trader if they develope some skills with Fib's
  • #239
  • Oct 19, 2007 8:46pm Oct 19, 2007 8:46pm
The last 3 post are spot on.

In order for a thread to work people need to practice and back test the crap out of any system. Bo, you have an incredible amount of knowledge-about what you alone have discovered. It wasn't something somebody gave you to follow, it was a culmination of ideas and hard work.You have already given the tools needed and the traders that decide to back test or Vhands trade this system will understand how trading actually works, the traders that want you to tell them everything you do don't understand you can't teach that part (it's experience).

Bo, you are giving people a gift here and they need to use it to their advantage, whether they try to follow every footstep you take (near impossible, no...impossible) or implement it into their own style (I suggest). It is human nature to try and solve WHY DIDN'T IT WORK, the fact is, it won't always work, back testing will show this. There isn't "1" reason why trades don't work, because what would have fixed one trade would ruin another. It's a game of odds and money management. Bo, you've tilted the odds tremendously in your favor. With sound money management you'll have millions in no time, I have no doubt. People inherently drift from the original idea, they add MA's or different pairs or some bells and whistles indicator, that's all fine and good, but learn the system the way it was intended to be learned first, then add all your whit and wonder to it. I hope someone understands this because it's important. Cheers!

Great work Bo !
Robonacci com
  • #240
  • Oct 19, 2007 8:53pm Oct 19, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting Bobokus
just showing the help that fibs can give to a trader if they develope some skills with Fib's
It has helped me focus, for the first time I don't feel like I'm flailing around in the dark. I know different things work for different people and what works for one may not be directly transferrable to the next person successfully, and I think I'm finally learning how to learn..that's the trick I think. not learning someone else's method, but learning how to learn for myself what works.

It's like someone I knew in school once said. University isn't about teaching you a specific skill to cut you lose and use, it's about qualifying you to learn about your trade. After the fact I've realized that was true for me, I spend most of my career researching the new technologies and approaches to things, I don't follow some set of rules laid out years ago by someone.

Thanks for teaching us how to ground ourselves and look out for ourselves from that point. There is no grail except the epiphany we find ourselves in separately when the time is right. I've never felt more focused before the guidance in this thread.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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