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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #101
  • Edited 8:18am Oct 18, 2007 8:09am | Edited 8:18am
Quoting haniam
Maybe it would be better to stay away from the market for the rest of the week if you don't know exactly what you are doing and why.

So I do close some trades for a loss only to go into better trades and bigger wins. Again: Don't marry your trades...

So if you are trading my trades, well don't! Do your own analysis and if you still want to take the trades then maybe do. It's your money you are risking!
Lot of emotions and confusions in the market.

EU has made new highs, and is sitting on 1.43

Buyers and Sellers are waiting to see what will happen. Seems both are surprised of the break and are waiting to see if this break is true of a fake one, a bullish trap.

it would be better to stay away from the market . Take a rest. There will be plenty of good and better opportunities in the coming days.

SL @1.4310 has practically been touched on some platform but not on others. I will close some positions even at small loss or break even when given the chance.

A break down under 1.428 will give bears a push to go down to the 4250-60 level
  • #102
  • Oct 18, 2007 11:54pm Oct 18, 2007 11:54pm
Today market may be unpredictable with the attempt to break out of 1.43 level.

It is better to stay out of the market today and Monday morning (at the opening of the market) or you should put very tight stops.

My pivot level is @1.4272. I will sell a break then a bounce of this level with 1.3015 as SL and 1.4240, 1.4205 as targets. No selling before this is done.

On another side, small aggressive buys may be done at a bounce of 1.4272 with 1.4255 as SL and 1.4300 as target.

A buy stop can be put @1.4315 targeting 1.4360. Indeed breaking this level will give the bulls the strength to go higher. Only a break of 1.4315 may let me consider 1.43 level as being broken. We have no H4 or D1 candle close over 1.43, showing that this level is still rejecting prices and still constituting a good resistance.

I think today will be a turning point for the EU with the G7 conference tomorrow determining where it would go in the next few weeks. Either the test break of 1.43 is rejected and we will see soon 1.4 or less, or 1.43 is broken then 1.45 and 1.46 will be next targets.

So close all positions you may open today before the end of NY session. EU may be unpredictable during the WE more that any other WE.

And it is better to stay out of the market today and Monday morning (at the opening of the market) or you should put very tight stops.
  • #103
  • Oct 19, 2007 12:31am Oct 19, 2007 12:31am
You have certainly heard of overbought and oversold situation of a certain currency. These are situation when traders are considered to have too many open trades and so they may soon close their positions for profit or loss.

If you use indicators such as RSI or Stochastic, you have levels on your indicators showing you such situations.

Well don’t be lured by such situations. Prices can be in an overbought or oversold situation and still go up or down hundred of pips! This happens most of the time when a currency is trending and it may stay for days in these territories.

So make attention when using overbought and oversold situation as an add on reason to sell or buy, this is not always true, and certainly not after a range break!
  • #104
  • Oct 19, 2007 1:17am Oct 19, 2007 1:17am
Quoting haniam
I had today 3 wrong take profits I am investigating the reasons
Quoting haniam

...

I contacted my borker by mail with the following message:

"I have a problem with 3 transactions ticket numbers: xxx, yyy,zzz
They are sell market that closed at the same WRONG 'take profit' 1.4233 for a loss!
They should not have closed since the take profit in the transaction was 1.4195
What happened? How to fix the problem? How to prevent this from happening again?"

...

My advice: Always check your broker statement and immediately do any reclaim you may doubt of. Honest brokers will very quickly fix the issue.
I received a follow up message from my broker for explaing me 'What happened' yesterday:

"Ticket Number: XXX
Short Description: Transaction problem

Dear Hani YYY,

Thank you for contacting ZZZ.We will be happy to clarify the situation.

Stop-Loss or Take-Profit Order is triggered when an exchange rate crosses a threshold, but the exchange rate used for executing the order is the most current exchange rate at the time the order is executed and not necessarily the threshold specified in the order. Thus, the rate applied for the execution of the order may be either higher or lower than the specified threshold because of the continuously changing exchange rates.

Incorrect pricing information received from several of our partner banks resulted in an incorrect price spike 1.418870 for EUR/USD at 11:35:47PM EDT. This price triggered execution of your 3 Take-Profits. However, the next rate the same second was 1.423330 and this was the latest rate at which server closed the trades (as explained in the first paragraph).

Whenever spike was identified, all orders triggered by the incorrect price were cancelled.
The sources ofthis pricing error were beyond our control, and we are very sorry for anyinconvenience this may have caused.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if you have any further questions.

Sincerely,
ZZZ Technical Support"

Isn't this a reply that shows a respect for you and the replier? I certainly would give a big confidence when dealing with this kind of professional honest brokers that would admit an error, fix it immediatly ... and apologize.

My advice: If you are having problems with your broker, leave him and go searching for a better one. There is some honest ones!
  • #105
  • Oct 19, 2007 1:46am Oct 19, 2007 1:46am
Quoting haniam
Today market may be unpredictable with the attempt to break out of 1.43 level.
Quoting haniam

It is better to stay out of the market today and Monday morning (at the opening of the market) or you should put very tight stops.

My pivot level is @1.4272. I will sell a break then a bounce of this level with 1.3015 as SL and 1.4240, 1.4205 as targets. No selling before this is done.

On another side, small aggressive buys may be done at a bounce of 1.4272 with 1.4255 as SL and 1.4300 as target.

A buy stop can be put @1.4315 targeting 1.4360. Indeed breaking this level will give the bulls the strength to go higher. Only a break of 1.4315 may let me consider 1.43 level as being broken. We have no H4 or D1 candle close over 1.43, showing that this level is still rejecting prices and still constituting a good resistance.

I think today will be a turning point for the EU with the G7 conference tomorrow determining where it would go in the next few weeks. Either the test break of 1.43 is rejected and we will see soon 1.4 or less, or 1.43 is broken then 1.45 and 1.46 will be next targets.

So close all positions you may open today before the end of NY session. EU may be unpredictable during the WE more that any other WE.

And it is better to stay out of the market today and Monday morning (at the opening of the market) or you should put very tight stops.
Overbought situation, that will be totally ignored if a new trend up begins, would favor a break down while the test of the highs are giving few pips more highs and favoring a break up, but with lack of assurance.


Overbought situation, that will be totally ignored if a new trend up begins, would favor a break down while the test of the high are giving few pips more highs, but with lack of assurance.

There's a BD play here. Stay away of the market today or use tight SL.
If you can afford to lose few pips and your broker do guarantee entries and exits with no slippage, play the range selling at 1.4315-20 (adding 5 pips every time a new hi is made) and buying at 1.4275-80 targeting the other side with 10-15 pips SL until 13:30 GMT then close your trades.

We have at 14:00 GMT Bernanke speech and this may be what traders are waiting to push and break either sides. Remember that Bernanke speech is definitely a BD manipulation, and with just one word it can move the market dozens if not hundreds pips
  • #106
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:11am Oct 19, 2007 3:11am
Quoting haniam

Overbought situation, that will be totally ignored if a new trend up begins, would favor a break down while the test of the highs are giving few pips more highs and favoring a break up, but with lack of assurance.


Overbought situation, that will be totally ignored if a new trend up begins, would favor a break down while the test of the high are giving few pips more highs, but with lack of assurance.

There's a BD play here. Stay away of the market today or use tight SL.
If you can afford to lose few pips and your broker do guarantee entries and exits with no slippage, play the range selling at 1.4315-20 (adding 5 pips every time a new hi is made) and buying at 1.4275-80 targeting the other side with 10-15 pips SL until 13:30 GMT then close your trades.

We have at 14:00 GMT Bernanke speech and this may be what traders are waiting to push and break either sides. Remember that Bernanke speech is definitely a BD manipulation, and with just one word it can move the market dozens if not hundreds pips
If you took the 1.4315 short you would have made +40 pips closing @1.4275

I did not because I had 4 other shorts @1.4298, 1.4291, 1.4290, 1.4277 taken yesterday I closed for a total of 20 pips.
One of my shorts yesterday @1.4290 was closed @1.4308 for -18 pips

A down move is now more and more favored, and will be confirmed by a 1.4260 break.

Pivot level is tested now and a breach was quickly tried. It has a trendline @1.4265 that protecting it but it has a good chance to be broken later on. A retracement up to 1.43 may again be seen, and I will sell with a.4325-30 as SL

I you took a long between 1.4275 and 1.4280, try to close it as soon as possible and favor selling ups for now.
  • #107
  • Oct 19, 2007 7:58am Oct 19, 2007 7:58am
Quoting haniam
If you took the 1.4315 short you would have made +40 pips closing @1.4275

I did not because I had 4 other shorts @1.4298, 1.4291, 1.4290, 1.4277 taken yesterday I closed for a total of 20 pips.
One of my shorts yesterday @1.4290 was closed @1.4308 for -18 pips

A down move is now more and more favored, and will be confirmed by a 1.4260 break.

Pivot level is tested now and a breach was quickly tried. It has a trendline @1.4265 that protecting it but it has a good chance to be broken later on. A retracement up to 1.43 may again be seen, and I will sell with a.4325-30 as SL

I you took a long between 1.4275 and 1.4280, try to close it as soon as possible and favor selling ups for now.
Sold 2 lots @1.4303 and 1.4305 targting 1.4288 and 1.4275
Lowering stops to 1.4300
  • #108
  • Oct 19, 2007 8:21am Oct 19, 2007 8:21am
Quoting haniam
Sold 2 lots @1.4303 and 1.4305 targting 1.4288 and 1.4275
Lowering stops to 1.4300
2 lots closed @1.4292 for +13+11=24 pips
Reason: On minor trendline risk of bounce.

May have waited a little bit for 10 more pips but don't want to stay long in the trade. Scalping kind but not really scalping. Just smaller targets before Bernanke speech.
  • #109
  • Oct 19, 2007 9:29am Oct 19, 2007 9:29am
Quoting haniam
...
A down move is now more and more favored, and will be confirmed by a 1.4260 break.
...
An mentioned previously, the bear move is now confirmed.

I don't know what Bernanke speach was about, but it broke the range to the down side and I don't give it a big chance today to go up and break the trade range up again

Pivot level @1.4272 has been breached and 1.4254 briefly tested.

I am waiting a pullback to the pivot to sell a bounce.

I will sell again @1.4280 and 1.4295-300 with a SL @1.4325 that I will lower quickly. Target 1.4225 seems good to cover (Lot of buy orders here) with a mid target of 1.4245.

In all case the market is today more dangerous than other days and if you want to trade, trade with big caution. Close all your trades before the W.E.

Happy pips harvesting to all,

Hani
  • #110
  • Oct 19, 2007 9:46am Oct 19, 2007 9:46am
Quoting haniam
An mentioned previously, the bear move is now confirmed.

I don't know what Bernanke speach was about, but it broke the range to the down side and I don't give it a big chance today to go up and break the trade range up again

Pivot level @1.4272 has been breached and 1.4254 briefly tested.

I am waiting a pullback to the pivot to sell a bounce.

I will sell again @1.4280 and 1.4295-300 with a SL @1.4325 that I will lower quickly. Target 1.4225 seems good to cover (Lot of buy orders here) with a mid target of 1.4245.

In all case the market is today more dangerous than other days and if you want to trade, trade with big caution. Close all your trades before the W.E.

Happy pips harvesting to all,

Hani

Missed my first entry @1.4270 targeting 1.4245 due to slow connection. My trade station did not execute the orders.
Hope sombeody took the trade and made good pips!

Would have made quick +25 pips.

Second target @1.4225 can still be easily reached for second lot.
  • #111
  • Oct 19, 2007 10:52am Oct 19, 2007 10:52am
Quoting haniam

Isn't this a reply that shows a respect for you and the replier? I certainly would give a big confidence when dealing with this kind of professional honest brokers that would admit an error, fix it immediatly ... and apologize.

My advice: If you are having problems with your broker, leave him and go searching for a better one. There is some honest ones!
nice thread haniam.besides,are u trade for a living with Oanda?
  • #112
  • Oct 19, 2007 10:54am Oct 19, 2007 10:54am
Quoting haniam
Missed my first entry @1.4270 targeting 1.4245 due to slow connection. My trade station did not execute the orders.
Hope sombeody took the trade and made good pips!

Would have made quick +25 pips.

Second target @1.4225 can still be easily reached for second lot.
I would close now EU 2nd lot @1.4250-55 for 15-20 pips
It seems bouncing on 1.4250 for now and W.E. is starting.

Monday we'll have plenty of opportunity to reenter themarket
  • #113
  • Oct 19, 2007 11:10am Oct 19, 2007 11:10am
I got this question about Big Dog from one of the readers and I think the response would profit all

Quote
Dear Haniam,

I always wonder how broker trade against you ?
...
(Questions are in italic in black between the brown responses)...

The way they trade against you is very simple: If you buy, they sell the exact amount in the same currency, if you sell they buy! PERIOD. When you close your order, they close their order. PERIOD.

This is totally automated and fiven the fact that 90-95% of traders lose, they will win with a 90-95% probability. A very lucrtaive business!!! So stop hunting has no rel meaning unless you lose and they win their trade, else if they rely on spread and maybe commission as ECN do they will not hunt your stops and would prefer you win so you make other trades!

Might be during this time they will be taking there pos.
Big Dog realy can trade or move price against you , But also.... they give sufficient chance for you to exit, but people hold or ignore it under hopes.
Big Dog also have enamy which might be stealing from them Like Big Bank tigers,
What i understood . if you trade well with sufficient pos and stops then no problem.

Yes good enoughhttp://www.fxegypt.com/forum/images/smilies/smile.gif But I put big banks in the BD category, not only brokers as you may see in p#3 because these category of traders do share lot of information we will never get, at least not on time to take a decision.

If Traders do not trade or loose fund and left broker then How will broker servive ? do they also do trading and don't want any client ?

They want clients and there's plenty coming from their big marketing lies telling winning quickly in forex is easy so if they are known they are not really afraid of losing some clients. More, they will give you lot of bonuses, incentives, HOPES... So you stick with them, you try again...

Today I had an offer of having 100$ for just adding to my account 1000$ from a very reputable broker. So I got a 10% bonus on my deposit! Only 1 condition, not to withdraw before making a 300 K turnover, enough for lot to lose more than lot of this 100$. But guess what, I will not only keep my 100$, I will make as much and more within 300K http://www.fxegypt.com/forum/images/smilies/smile.gif

Big dog also don't want us to left market, so sometimes they move market well in direction which most understood.

Yes of course. They will give you a lot, enough to be able to take more later! They play the fear and greed game I will talk about in following posts. The power of a good trader is to know how to take and how not to give back!

It is also seen that Reserve banks want there currency to trade in perticular level or price band. but if that price band is violated then they give big slap to Big Dog. No one is safe.. only one should know how to servive.

Yes indeed. These levels should be well watched.

We would like to know Big Dog weak points.

OK, I will develop this point in later posts.
  • #114
  • Oct 19, 2007 11:19am Oct 19, 2007 11:19am

I had this great article from DC Bonta who describes most broker behaviors:

“I Was Only 1 Pip Away…..”

How many times have you heard a trader say “I called it right and went long, but I got stopped out by only 1 pip and then the market took off without me.” Sound familiar?

Unfortunately it happens all the time. This brings us to the most asked question in retail Forex trading:

Do Forex brokerage firms have a hidden agenda when it comes to your success or, more importantly, your failure in the Forex market?
Is the industry itself causing 95% of individuals to lose in the market?
The debate rages on with some believing it’s the fairy tale world of bitter traders who need another excuse for their losing trade, another exciting story to tell about how they picked the perfect trade, but got stopped out just before the move.
Or is it the truth? Are Forex brokerage firms secretly sabotaging your trades?

Well, I can end the debate right here and now from an insider’s view. Retail firms with dealing desks do cause many of the losses individual traders experience. I have seen it with my own eyes and I know institutional traders from major firms that you have heard of (and may have an account with) that can tell you horror stories. This is not to say that all traders using this argument are in the right -- there are many bitter incompetent traders who want a ready-made excuse. But, the fact is, retail firms have an interest in making sure the individual trader loses.

Why? Many people ask me what the motivation is behind this deliberate attempt at client sabotage. Why would a brokerage firm (which should be non-biased and making money on trading volume alone) be interested in the trading results of its account holders?

Simple. If the brokerage firm has a dealing desk, which most retail firms do, they are taking the other side of your trade. When you go long, they are going short and vice versa. They now have a vested interest in you losing because when you lose, they win.

It’s not unlike being a Vegas casino where the house eventually wins. They don’t care about long term business from small fish. They know that most individual traders will open accounts with small amounts just to “try Forex out” just like they would throw their hard earned money on the soft felt of the Black Jack table. $5,000 here, $10,000 here, the brokerage firms eat these small traders alive.

The brokerage firm’s traders on these desks know where the market is moving and they also know where every order is placed. So, if you place a stop order at a certain level and it’s in their best interest to fill that order, they will take you out. Many times you will see an “air filled” rally or decline meaning the price is sharply moving up or down with no volume just to wipe out certain levels where individual trader orders are stacked. The brokerage firm had to take your order out knowing they were in trouble with the short term move coming. They can see the move coming, they can see your position and they can see your stop.

You’re giving them all the information needed to destroy you.

What’s the solution?

You have to trade with a brokerage firm that does not have a reputation for unethical practices such as running stops. There are few out there now but many more will be coming on to the scene as traders like yourself find out what’s happening.

These firms need account holders to do well and continue trading through them to make money. Another huge advantage is if they send orders through to different liquidity pools without the banks knowing what your orders are.

So, if you have a stop loss to sell EUR/USD at 1.3350, your firm may pass that order to Deutsche Bank for execution and your original buy order was placed with JP Morgan. This is ideal because they just see an order at a specific price without any knowledge of where your other trades are. They don’t care if you make money or not.

That sell order at 1.3350 could be losing you 50 pips or making you 100 pips, they wouldn’t know because they can’t see your original order and like I said, they don’t care because they are paid purely on volume. This puts you and your brokerage firm on the same side of the table. Forex trading is hard enough; don’t fight an uphill battle with a brokerage firm that is out to see you lose.
  • #115
  • Oct 19, 2007 11:58am Oct 19, 2007 11:58am
Today we made on the thread with virtual live trades setup
(+40)+24+(+25+15)=104 pips.

I say virtual because I was unable to take 2 of these trades

I unfortunately did less for 2 reasons:

1- I was in previous not closed trades I closed for +20 pips making up my -18 pips closed by mistake previously. So I did not enter the +40 trades. This is an example that shows how closing your 'unpiping' trades would let you get more pips by entering better trades.

2- A slow connection void me from entering the last trade for 25+15 pips = 40 pips.

So I made today +20-18+24 =+ 26 pips

Sure you did better

Have a great W.E.
  • #116
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:09pm Oct 19, 2007 3:09pm
Quoting amenlo9
nice thread haniam.besides,are u trade for a living with Oanda?
Welcome to the thread and thank you amenlo9!

I use many brokers (More than a dozen) with all kind of platforms.

Unfortunatly I think that the policy of the site forbid us discussing brokers issues.

So I can not really talk about this on this thread.

Have a nice W.E.

Hani
  • #117
  • Oct 19, 2007 8:00pm Oct 19, 2007 8:00pm
Quoting haniam
Welcome to the thread and thank you amenlo9!

I use many brokers (More than a dozen) with all kind of platforms.

Unfortunatly I think that the policy of the site forbid us discussing brokers issues.

So I can not really talk about this on this thread.

Have a nice W.E.

Hani
why using so many brokers?spread the risk?
  • #118
  • Oct 20, 2007 3:04am Oct 20, 2007 3:04am
Quoting amenlo9
why using so many brokers? spread the risk?


When I started trading, I opened two accounts funding 6K with two different borkers so I can see their execution and to spread the risk. I blew these two account in less than a month because I was overtrading and because of a major news that went against me and both servers crashed during this news.

Then I opened with a third very known one and I got unbelievable slippage and spike during news. So I checked with my other 2 live accounts and i was sure that the spike I had was faked and stop hunting.

So I did lot of researches and opened many small live accounts (From 5$ to 1000$) with as many brokers as possible to compare their execution and know all about them and their platforms.

This is definitly not the thing you should do if you have a limited budget!

For me, it's a tuition I pay to be able to work and test live accounts and see customer service behavior, interest rates, execution, platform performance...

It's so easy (an stupid) to rate a broker SCAM or with 5 stars by just visiting their web site or trying a demo account. But this is really totally different when you use a live account.

And I did not lose the money I invested in these account, as I learned to treat with respect a small account as I would with bigger one. I am only not afraid to lose these funds if the brokers reveals to be a real SCAM or go into bankruptcy.

I still have my main funds with 5 different brokers under different legislation.
This is not very good for your ROI. As you should not focus on more than 1 account at a time. So I use every account for different strategy (Long term, short term, scalping, EA...)

I would not advise you to do the same. Just maybe you put your funds with 2 brokers in case you have a problem with one you are not blocked.

If you are interested in more details, please send me an e-mail and I would be glad to assist.

Have a great W.E.

Hani
  • #119
  • Oct 20, 2007 4:01am Oct 20, 2007 4:01am
Mon. 15, 2007: 4 trades for +83 pips.

Tue. 16, 2007: 5 trades for +93 pips

Wed. 17, 2007: 6 trades for +87 pips.

Thu. 18, 2007: 2 trades for +15 pips. Still have 7 opened positions. Was away from my trades when I could close them and I am still hanging with these trades and Tp missed by 2 pips! Bad. I may have to close them for a loss.

Fri. 19, 2007: 3 trades for +26 pips instead of getting 104 pips I would have if I was not stuck in Thursday trades. This is a live example on why you should not get married to your trades, you will miss plenty of pips and you may add the bigger loss on closing your old trades at higher prices.

3nd week results: +304 pips

Oct. 2007 results: +704 pips
  • #120
  • Oct 20, 2007 8:05am Oct 20, 2007 8:05am
hi haniam......

you mentioned that the xxx/jpy carry trades are your main concerns.........

mind if you share some of your strategies and your insights regarding the recent possible unwind ?
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