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  • #201
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:58am Oct 18, 2007 7:58am
Hey Bo..

I was in before the USD news at 8:30AM EST and took a quick profit so I wouldn't get caught in the 8:30 USD news. Do you try to get in and out before major news or do you just let your trades ride if the fibs are telling you the market is still long in this case. I got out @ 2.0440 and missed out on a bunch of pips. Of course I know that after the fact. what's your advice about trading through news events?
  • #202
  • Oct 18, 2007 8:35am Oct 18, 2007 8:35am
Quoting ozziedave
Hey Bo..

I was in before the USD news at 8:30AM EST and took a quick profit so I wouldn't get caught in the 8:30 USD news. Do you try to get in and out before major news or do you just let your trades ride if the fibs are telling you the market is still long in this case. I got out @ 2.0440 and missed out on a bunch of pips. Of course I know that after the fact. what's your advice about trading through news events?

Best advise is just dont trade around major US news and wait till after the dust settles In reality support or resistance either breaks or it doesnt the news events just speeds up the motion.
An example if you backtest and never know what the results of news events are does it make a difference then ?
Support and resistance either holds or it doesnt
  • #203
  • Oct 18, 2007 3:00pm Oct 18, 2007 3:00pm
Price needs to stabilize or consoliate very soon. 2.0431/ 2.0426 needs to hold and we should be looking good for another long position tonight. Will post the call for tonight around 7pm central.
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  • #204
  • Edited 8:54pm Oct 18, 2007 6:25pm | Edited 8:54pm
Gonna post a little early tonight, the day hasnt finished out yet but we are primed for a move already.If the early signal comes out during the Asian session it may move pretty slow until London.It retraced a little farther today than I would have liked but we have to play with the hand were dealt. Since we did get this much retracement today it will take some of the strength away on another push up, so on a long position be wary around the high we made today because it has that..... Im gonna form a double top formation look to it. Be wary since this is a possibility and be ready to close a long position on a failure to break.If the high of today is broken we should go a little smoother then.
In the event we fail and break short areas of concern will be the (purple) range fib levels, especially around 2.0390/2.0370 and i would be looking here for an exit on a short.
Follow the market with your swing fib and it should aid in your decisions.

Long on a break of 2.0462
Targeting 2.0560/2.0590
*watch price action on a test of the high*
----------------------------------------
Short on a break of 2.0431
Targeting 2.0390/2.0370
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  • #205
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:41pm Oct 18, 2007 7:41pm
Thexder; For his post 193.
Made me laugh out load. My wife thinks I'm crazy.

" I've got it cornered.... There's no way out."

Now thats funny I don't care who you are.
  • #206
  • Oct 18, 2007 8:36pm Oct 18, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting Bobokus
Gonna post a little early tonight, the day hasnt finished out yet but we are primed for a move already.If the early signal comes out during the Asian session it may move pretty slow until London.It retraced a little farther today than I would have liked but we have to play with the hand were dealt. Since we did get this much retracement today it will take some of the strength away on another push up, so on a long position be wary around the high we made today because it has that..... Im gonna form a double top formation look to it. Be wary since this is a possibility and be ready to close a long position on a failure to break.If the high of today is broken we should go a little smoother then.
In the event we fail and break short areas of concern will be the (purple) range fib levels, especially around 2.0390/2.0370 and i would be looking here for an exit on a short.
Follow the market with your swing fib and it should aid in your decisions.

Long on a bounce from 2.0462
Targeting 2.0560/2.0590
*watch price action on a test of the high*
----------------------------------------
Short on a break of 2.0431
Targeting 2.0390/2.0370
Hi Bo..

Just wanted to get you to clarify your long call on a "bounce" from 2.0462. Since price closed below that level on Thursday do you mean a break of 2.0462 or are you looking for price to break that level and then come back to test it before you enter?
  • #207
  • Oct 18, 2007 8:48pm Oct 18, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo..

Just wanted to get you to clarify your long call on a "bounce" from 2.0462. Since price closed below that level on Thursday do you mean a break of 2.0462 or are you looking for price to break that level and then come back to test it before you enter?
No it should read a break not a bounce
I edited it so it reads correctly now
  • #208
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:06pm Oct 18, 2007 10:06pm
What if the price were somewhere idle between the long and high of Thursday while waiting for the Friday session, would we only be looking for a long break or is there some way to describe a bounce off the long (when would we get in)?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #209
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:16pm Oct 18, 2007 10:16pm
Quoting Thexder
What if the price were somewhere idle between the long and high of Thursday while waiting for the Friday session, would we only be looking for a long break or is there some way to describe a bounce off the long (when would we get in)?
If you never get a bounce or test of the Long fib youll have to make a jugement call on the break of the high if it occurs.
If price were to trickle down and stall at the the long fib then move back up from it that would be a bounce
Today for instance is making a bounce from the Short fib and breaking out of the Long fib (intraday fib of today)...It is also bouncing from the (Range )long fib pulled across Wed and Thurs.
The 2300 candle of Thursday is an entry
The 0300 candle today is an entry...although its early(asian session breaks like this are higher risk, but an entry and Im am long 2.0464 My BE is 2.0468
  • #210
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:34pm Oct 18, 2007 10:34pm
Since weve gone a few pips now and being the asian session i am moving my position to break even here...so if its a false break I will not loose anything
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  • #211
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:39pm Oct 18, 2007 10:39pm
When getting in early would you still set targets yet or use BE as a free trade and watch price action for clues until more activity kicks in after the session start?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #212
  • Oct 18, 2007 10:47pm Oct 18, 2007 10:47pm
Quoting Thexder
When getting in early would you still set targets yet or use BE as a free trade and watch price action for clues until more activity kicks in after the session start?
With it being this early and moved enough to got to BE I consider this a free trade and it can roll back on it, more action will come later if not ..theres always the next trading day.

Another thing to note is if it does fail here, we are getting an early indication it could turn short and look for an early entry on a short position
  • #213
  • Oct 18, 2007 11:31pm Oct 18, 2007 11:31pm
Hi Bo...

Looks like we were both seeing the same thing. I saw price bounce off the intraday 38 fib several times and start to move up. I entered on the break of the 50 intraday fib @ 2.0454 and exited @ 2.0484 which is the R1 level on the intraday fib for +30 pips.
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  • #214
  • Oct 18, 2007 11:37pm Oct 18, 2007 11:37pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo...

Looks like we were both seeing the same thing. I saw price bounce off the intraday 38 fib several times and start to move up. I entered on the break of the 50 intraday fib @ 2.0454 and exited @ 2.0484 which is the R1 level on the intraday fib for +30 pips.

Good Job, you can call it a day already
  • #215
  • Oct 18, 2007 11:46pm Oct 18, 2007 11:46pm
Hi Bo..

I know you don't trade the EURYEN but I wanted to get your analysis on this failed trade. Price has broken the 38 intradady fib to the down side. Price is moving up to test the 38 fib again and we see 2 very wicky candles rejected by the 38 intraday fib. The next candle is a bearish candle and I entered @ 165.11 (green circle). This was at the bottom of the candle before it closed, price rose up from my entry and the candle closed @ 165.20. I placed a SL at the 50 intraday fib @ 165.51. As you can see price went up to 165.59 and stopped me out and then truned around and went back down. Was this a valid entry or was I in too early? Just wanted to get your feedback on the trade. I may have placed my SL to high where would you have placed a SL?
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  • #216
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:56am Oct 19, 2007 3:56am
I can post a picture if necessary but let me try to describe.
Setup:
1. We have an Intraday zone above a Range zone.
2. The candle has gone threw the Intraday zone into the range zone then closed between the two zones.
3. The next candle opens right where it should next to the close of the last.
Question:
1. Should we enter short now or wait for a penetration ( not close) into the range zone or consider the range zone as rejecting the last candle and now we must wait for a close into the range zone?
2. Or should we go long of the rejection?
  • #217
  • Oct 19, 2007 4:29am Oct 19, 2007 4:29am
Here's the way I've been following the short move as it's unfolded (without trading).
Just like that other short move we recently had that was preceeded by a sudden large down thrust, Tonight there was a big down thrust spanning two one hour candles and then the short was triggered at the bottom of the thrust on the opening of the 3rd candle, below the intraday zone.

I thought I'd visit the 5 minute chart like before to tweak the virtual entry and I treated it as if I were really going to make a trade, so I followed it real time, not just looking back at the whole thing after the fact. (I know, stop looking at the 5 minute time frame, but it's only to investigate and tweak a 1 hour based decision, like looking under the microscope in a macroscopic world for evidence).

On the screen shot, the left side is the 1 hour and the right side is the 5 minute. The circle shows the region where a 1 hour short would have occurred. The gray box is the intraday trade zone and the purple is the swing trade zone of that big down thrust, the last swing prior to a short entry if we took it.

On the 5 minute chart once the 1 hour short is triggered, price never goes below the previous 5 minute candle so I start to wonder if it's going to retrace the swing move. It creeps up and does a staircase of what looks like an up candle followed by a retrace candle over and over, then finally a big up candle and a retrace of several candles.

Marking the bottom of each stair step, I'd have gone short if I were trading and price retreated that far, but it never did. Once price retraced to the swing trade zone, even if we were in the short from the opening of the 1 hour candle we're still valid, price hasn't gone long from the swing.

By this time it is looking like it's consolidating in confluence between the swing zone and intraday zone's pivots, and more than 1 hour has passed so I'd wonder if the trade has gone stale. There's also an upper resistance forming in the trade zone.

I'd have to discretionally choose if I'd want to take any of those staircase short entries any more, or maybe a short of the swing zone on a 5minute candle, or start all over on the 1 hour intraday trade zone and look for a fresh break out. With real money I'd probably sit by, it's the end of the week anyway.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #218
  • Oct 19, 2007 4:48am Oct 19, 2007 4:48am
Yeeea, I don't know Thex. The only thing I have ever been able to use the 5 min for is to confirm a movement is stalling at an expected resistance point. I think others might agree that there is just too much noise in the 5. BUT;
If it works for you hey " Get err done"
  • #219
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:04am Oct 19, 2007 5:04am
5 minute is too noisy to look for trades from scratch but so far it seems that using it to monitor a big 1 hour move provides clean feedback within that scope for the first half hour.

Another way to look at it without having to leave the 1 hour would be to just make note of the big down move just before the signal, then watch that newly formed candle and see if it's going to move low or start retracing, then pull the swing fib if enough retrace occurs and see where it's going.

Sort of like trying to trade the break of the candle before the entry signal, which shouldn't matter too much in pips since it's already near the bottom and the recent price movements have shown it's a worthy cause.

I just like the visual so I look at the 5minute instead of watching the new 1 hour nudge up and down on the spot. And it's only something I have been considering when there's the big move before entry, because I expect elastic reaction more than I expect a continuation by the time the entry comes.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #220
  • Oct 19, 2007 5:21am Oct 19, 2007 5:21am
Another thing I like about looking at the 5 minute for a visual interpretation, in both of the down surges of the last few days prior to a short signal, it can be seen in the lower time frame that those were both real surges that occurred in a short time so it's worthy of discretion before taking a trade.

In today's example surge the price ended up almost fully retracing the 2 candle down surge with a 2 candle up movement, ending in a long trigger above the intraday zone, and so I'd also want to check that thrust before taking a long...

So looking at a lower time frame, I see that the 2 one-hour candle upward "thrust" was not really thrusting, it constantly staircased up so it's something I'd consider stable and I'd probably take the long trade in play right now. I'm just using 5 min as a visual aid, not a trade method. I think it's worth thinking about (if anyone took a blind short entry tonight they'd probably lose up to 50 pips waiting for a close above the trade zone as a last resort).

Even for someone who follows the strategy of scaling out heavy at +10 pips and letting the rest take the heat, that short move today wouldn't have earned even spread I don't think, but the long move in play right now would have given those 10 pips I think...or close to it.

Who knows, maybe the current "long" will turn back into a down move and actually turn a short profit afterall but it would have taken about -70 pips of courage to stay in.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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