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  • #181
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:52am Oct 17, 2007 8:52am
If you took the break of 2.0380 you may want to exit now and keep what you got. Last night i didnt think we would even see 2.0380 today so i consider it a gift and im out with 20pips
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  • #182
  • Oct 17, 2007 1:31pm Oct 17, 2007 1:31pm
I'm getting the MT4 demo data feed and when I draw the intraday fibs to set up for last night, my high was higher than yours, and my low is off by 1 from yours, and so my trading zone would have missed that open above the long, it opened within the trade zone for me, and if I had taken the open above the long on my chart I would have failed.

So my high of the intraday was 437 with MT4, and even worse, I just checked my real account provider and their high was 438, hmm.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #183
  • Oct 17, 2007 2:13pm Oct 17, 2007 2:13pm
Quoting Thexder
I'm getting the MT4 demo data feed and when I draw the intraday fibs to set up for last night, my high was higher than yours, and my low is off by 1 from yours, and so my trading zone would have missed that open above the long, it opened within the trade zone for me, and if I had taken the open above the long on my chart I would have failed.

So my high of the intraday was 437 with MT4, and even worse, I just checked my real account provider and their high was 438, hmm.

My account with FastBrokers shows the same as yours a high of 437 yesterday, its just the difference from one broker to the next.Looks like it would have kept you out of that trade though or put you in 1 candle too late.Nuances from broker to broker.We have a similar problem being in the US and the Sunday candles...we miss a couple of hours of candles every Sunday.I opened a demo with Saxo Bank just so I can see what the market really opens at.
  • #184
  • Oct 17, 2007 2:41pm Oct 17, 2007 2:41pm
Well this experience might add to the discretionary toolset, which is how I prefer to put it rather than "tweaking the method" itself. When a candle opens very close to an anticipated break out area, knowing it may or may not have actually broken out depending on the brokers, why not impose a discretionary enter/stand aside decision rather than a mechanical exact level breach, after all the fib levels themselves are subject to +/- tolerance, we know the levels are often approached very close but not actually hit before reacting.

So in retrospect (and hopefully in the future now) with this open candle on my 1 hour chart opening just below the break point, I could go down to some smaller time frame that (based on discretion) shows enough activity in small increments to judge price action (15minute was showing too many long candles with tails, there must be still price action hidden there, try 5 minute).

On the 5 minute chart just after the 1 hour opened, it did close outside the long line but re-opened below again, so it would confirm that things are subjective at this time. Looking at the retrace down, it didn't fall below the previous retrace swings so price is swinging in the direction of a long move. Then there is a reversal candle 15 or 20 minutes into the 1 hour period at the bottom of the swing, and after bouncing off the Pivot fib, so a daring person may say "It looks like it's been trending long, now it bounced off a fib with a reversal price action, why not get in early and risk it". Otherwise, wait for the 5min close bar about half an hour into that 1 hour candle, and get those 20 pips afterall.

Just discretion at work rather than trying to modify and curve-fit the rules of the fib trading zone break out.

This is the 5 minute chart at the time of break out. The red up arrow shows the start of the 1 hour period and the triangle is covering the first half hour of that 1 hour break out candle.

I feel every day as if I add another 20% to my knowledge, experience and add about the same to my ability to remove emotion from it and just be objective. I'm also glad I'm not using real money yet, I would have lost last night but now if it happens again I'd probably have won. That's success enough for me at this point in time.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #185
  • Oct 17, 2007 3:01pm Oct 17, 2007 3:01pm
Quoting Thexder
Well this experience might add to the discretionary toolset, which is how I prefer to put it rather than "tweaking the method" itself. When a candle opens very close to an anticipated break out area, knowing it may or may not have actually broken out depending on the brokers, why not impose a discretionary enter/stand aside decision rather than a mechanical exact level breach, after all the fib levels themselves are subject to +/- tolerance, we know the levels are often approached very close but not actually hit before reacting.

So in retrospect (and hopefully in the future now) with this open candle on my 1 hour chart opening just below the break point, I could go down to some smaller time frame that (based on discretion) shows enough activity in small increments to judge price action (15minute was showing too many long candles with tails, there must be still price action hidden there, try 5 minute).

On the 5 minute chart just after the 1 hour opened, it did close outside the long line but re-opened below again, so it would confirm that things are subjective at this time. Looking at the retrace down, it didn't fall below the previous retrace swings so price is swinging in the direction of a long move. Then there is a reversal candle 15 or 20 minutes into the 1 hour period at the bottom of the swing, and after bouncing off the Pivot fib, so a daring person may say "It looks like it's been trending long, now it bounced off a fib with a reversal price action, why not get in early and risk it". Otherwise, wait for the 5min close bar about half an hour into that 1 hour candle, and get those 20 pips afterall.

Just discretion at work rather than trying to modify and curve-fit the rules of the fib trading zone break out.

This is the 5 minute chart at the time of break out. The red up arrow shows the start of the 1 hour period and the triangle is covering the first half hour of that 1 hour break out candle.

I feel every day as if I add another 20% to my knowledge, experience and add about the same to my ability to remove emotion from it and just be objective. I'm also glad I'm not using real money yet, I would have lost last night but now if it happens again I'd probably have won. That's success enough for me at this point in time.
The adverse to that is on the lower timeframes you will see what appears to be candle opening to break a fib level but when you zoom back out to the higher timeframe it never actually breaks the fib level. Another for instance is last night my Fib level was 2.0380 I didnt watch it through the night and I knew if we reached that far i was looking to go long so i set a pending order at 2.0385. Its more agressive but I was planning on going long at that point anyway.The candle opening above the level is just the most conservative approach, I feel like if I had actually been watching it I still would have taken the long position at that level.
Yes Demo trade this way with Fibs and maybe the simplest of indicators with it like trendlines...if you can get to where you can trade successfully with fibs and simple trendlines you can approach practicaly any method you see out there and make it successful, because you will have learned how the market moves and how trade it.
  • #186
  • Oct 17, 2007 5:46pm Oct 17, 2007 5:46pm
We're getting squeezed with daily lower highs and higher lows.
By the time London comes maybe the lower trend line will be closer to the trade zone and make a potential short from there easier. A long off the intraday high could be supported with bounces from the upper trend line by that time too. It has to leave this triangle tonight or it'll get very tight.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #187
  • Oct 17, 2007 6:32pm Oct 17, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting Thexder
We're getting squeezed with daily lower highs and higher lows.
By the time London comes maybe the lower trend line will be closer to the trade zone and make a potential short from there easier. A long off the intraday high could be supported with bounces from the upper trend line by that time too. It has to leave this triangle tonight or it'll get very tight.
You would think something has to give here....
  • #188
  • Oct 17, 2007 7:01pm Oct 17, 2007 7:01pm
We may have already seen our bounce earlier today...I hope not, i would like to get in at a better price off another bounce. Hate taking the break of the high during a ranging market but there is some room above, so ill take it if thats all we get.Even though not posted on this chart posted pay attention if we do breakout tonight to the higher timeframe fib levels.
Weve tested the upper trendline twice already today so its obvious the direction we are trying to go..maybe the 3rd time is a charm.Spoiler for a continued up move would be if we see candles on the 1 hour below 2.0336, then we'll be going the other way again.

Tonight
Long on a bounce from 2.0368
Targeting 2.0440/2.0460
*we have room above to hit 2.0500 but we'll see*

Long on a break of the High...same targets
----------------------------------------------
Short on a break of 2.0336
Targeting 2.0280/2.0260
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  • #189
  • Oct 17, 2007 7:15pm Oct 17, 2007 7:15pm
Having this thread start as we funnel into a tight range may be beneficial itself because we learn how to think about the surroundings and deal with them. If we started learning this method when the market is about to trend one way for 20 days, we'd always think we have easy wins with big pip gains daily because the system appears to respect the rules every time. Then we'd probably get lazy about spotting dangers.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #190
  • Oct 17, 2007 7:22pm Oct 17, 2007 7:22pm
Quoting Thexder
Having this thread start as we funnel into a tight range may be beneficial itself because we learn how to think about the surroundings and deal with them. If we started learning this method when the market is about to trend one way for 20 days, we'd always think we have easy wins with big pip gains daily because the system appears to respect the rules every time. Then we'd probably get lazy about spotting dangers.
Yep, trading in these conditions although not the worst we will see are pretty tough to call, once we get into a trend..you gonna love how everything falls together.
And yes the market has a way with humbling all of us!
  • #191
  • Oct 17, 2007 10:04pm Oct 17, 2007 10:04pm
great job Bo.
  • #192
  • Oct 17, 2007 10:21pm Oct 17, 2007 10:21pm
Quoting XSDelivers
great job Bo.
Thank You
  • #193
  • Oct 18, 2007 12:36am Oct 18, 2007 12:36am
I've got it cornered...there's no way out.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #194
  • Oct 18, 2007 3:35am Oct 18, 2007 3:35am
I was just looking at the chart wondering if I had taken the trade when the candle closed above the intraday high, where would I want to cut my losses, it was going nowhere..and then this
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #195
  • Edited 6:16am Oct 18, 2007 5:34am | Edited 6:16am
Quoting Thexder
I was just looking at the chart wondering if I had taken the trade when the candle closed above the intraday high, where would I want to cut my losses, it was going nowhere..and then this
Hi Thexder,

Not sure I understand your question here. If you took the break of the daily high long you should make a few pips. I took the break of the intraday high @ 2.0421 and got out at 2.0440 (which was a TP1 on the swing fib) for +19 pips.
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  • #196
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:06am Oct 18, 2007 7:06am
Quoting Thexder
I was just looking at the chart wondering if I had taken the trade when the candle closed above the intraday high, where would I want to cut my losses, it was going nowhere..and then this
Stop watching from a 15 min and 5 min chart they will decieve you. A 1 hour chart gives enough false signals.
  • #197
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:12am Oct 18, 2007 7:12am
Looks like we made the right decision on taking the break of the high...and still may get that 2.0500 yet !. It would apear I got out too early this time, but thats what I get for trading half asleep.
We need a Daily close now above 2.0475 and we just might finally get out of this range to test the highs again.
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  • #198
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:30am Oct 18, 2007 7:30am
I was thinking in terms of if i had been in the trade with a stop (mental or actual) then what would my stop have been. If it were 30 I think I'd have been stopped out before that continuation of the break out. By the time it had gone down 30, it was starting to look as if it would not recover, it was chopping around and making lower highs and lower lows.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #199
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:39am Oct 18, 2007 7:39am
Quoting Thexder
I was thinking in terms of if i had been in the trade with a stop (mental or actual) then what would my stop have been. If it were 30 I think I'd have been stopped out before that continuation of the break out. By the time it had gone down 30, it was starting to look as if it would not recover, it was chopping around and making lower highs and lower lows.
I was watching too see if a candle opened below the trendline again, if it had I would have closed mine there.
  • #200
  • Oct 18, 2007 7:49am Oct 18, 2007 7:49am
Another way to look for a stop would be use the swing fib, once the high was broken pull the swing fib across it and look for a candle to open below the short fib line.You get several tests of but never a break.Just have to stomach through it when the market is choppy like this.
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