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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #61
  • Oct 14, 2007 4:26am Oct 14, 2007 4:26am
Mon. 8, 2007: 2 trades for +58 pips. Could have made 100 pips more if I trailed stop my trades. Was expecting a bounce that happened but 10 pips away from my reentry point.

Tue. 9, 2007: 1 trade for +13 pips and 3 trades not closed this day

Wed. 10, 2007: 3 tades still running. Was going to close them @1.4080 on tuesday but was not able to due to bad connection. Waiting a lower level that did not come.

Thu. 11, 2007: 3 trades closed for a loss of -97 pips. Don't get married to your trades or you will lose better opportunities while witing for the prices to come back. Reenter at better levels!

3 new trades for +60 pips

Fri. 12, 2007: 3 trades for +136 pips

2nd week results: +170 pips

Oct. 2007 results: +400 pips

Below is a sample of some of the trades taken in EU in the previous days

Attached Image
  • #62
  • Oct 15, 2007 2:21am Oct 15, 2007 2:21am
Until 1.43 levels are broken or the correction of the upmove from Aug 16 till Sep. 08 is done, I will most of the time be on the selling side, closing most trades between 20 nd 100 pips, few for 5-20 pips if I think I can get a better selling prices later on.

For today, we will have first an initial test of the highs to test selling pressure. If resistance appears to be strong enough, we will see test of lower levels having 1.4135 as strong support.

I will sell 1 lot at current prices (Agressive trade alrady done @1.4187), another lot @1.4215-20 level with 1.4250 as SL targeting down to 1.4160-40 as the market are somehow traped in a less than 100 pips range with a bias to the down.
  • #63
  • Oct 15, 2007 2:30am Oct 15, 2007 2:30am
Agressive trade @1.4187 already closed @1.4176 for +12 pips
Will sell again around same level
  • #64
  • Oct 15, 2007 3:06am Oct 15, 2007 3:06am
Quoting haniam
Agressive trade @1.4187 already closed @1.4176 for +12 pips
Will sell again around same level
EU seems to go up to test 1.43 again.
But lot of resistance on the way.

Sold @1.4189 and lot @1.4220 and @1.4228

I think 1.4240 will cap the upmove for the moment
  • #65
  • Oct 15, 2007 3:35am Oct 15, 2007 3:35am
Hi Haniam

Are your trades based solely on your belief that eur will go down or are they based on any method? I note that you are now scalping in effect getting in and out very quickly
Regards
  • #66
  • Oct 15, 2007 3:58am Oct 15, 2007 3:58am
Quoting howard
Hi Haniam

Are your trades based solely on your belief that eur will go down or are they based on any method? I note that you are now scalping in effect getting in and out very quickly
Welcome to the thread Howard!

As you say, my trades are first based on my belief that EU will go down unless it manages to break 1.43 then we will see another big move up.

As I mentioned in my trading plan for today p#62, I am on the seeling side with 1.4250 as SL and that my 1.4188 sell was an agressive trade. An agressive trade that bounced on my pivot level for today @1.4176 so I closed the trade knowing I can have better selling entries as I did later.

If my stops are hit, I will sell again near the 1.43, but I think that I will close at least 2/3 of my trades with profit before 1.4240 may be broken. There's no major news today, so I don't expect hi volatility but rather ranging moves.

I am not with scalping which is the fact of opening and closing a trade 2-3 pips of gains within few minutes.

I prefer to take 10-20 pips in ranging markets and 50 to 100 pips in trending markets for currencies like EU. But I may close a trade for +1 pips if it was opened for lot of time and the market is still not going in the side of the trade, to reenter it later at better price or on a break.

I am targeting now a test of the pivot level again and will close my 1.4189 trade as soon as possible. I sold again @1.4229 since hourly are in overbought levels and prices are challenging and bouncing on 1.4233 resistance level.

"But I could be wrong"

Hope this helps.

Happy pips harvesting!

Hani
  • #67
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:11am Oct 15, 2007 4:11am
So I would say that you play the daily pivots, R2 being at 1.4240, do you trade eur/usd only?
Regards
  • #68
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:32am Oct 15, 2007 4:32am
Quoting howard
So I would say that you play the daily pivots, R2 being at 1.4240, do you trade eur/usd only?

Howard,

I would not qualify this as 'play' since these are live trades in a real account.

I trade most currencies, but I prefer to concentrate in this thread on EU so I would not create confusion since I know that lot of readers are still new to trading and this will help them understand more the reason of a trade.

Yes daily pivots are very useful to enter and exit trades, but also trendlines that determines support and resistance, indicators that show overbought/oversold status...

i.e. a strong support trendline that could be clearly drawn on H1 from oct. 09 was broken on oct 12 and is now forming a resistance trendline. A weaker one from oct 11 broken down on oct 12 was broken up again today and will give some support when prices will go down around 1.4188 were I will close some positions.

I mentioned in p#6 two nice way of trading (Between many others) that may help in trading and they may reinforce my decision from time to time.

But still the best tools I use are a trading plan and my brain!
And I try not to let a winning position turn into a losing one...

And beware the Big Dogs!

Happy pips harvesting Howard,

Hani
  • #69
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:19am Oct 15, 2007 6:19am
An illustration of BD would be what is happening with EU in these few days.
BD are pointing to 1.45-46 level and traders are being enthusiastic and some are still opening new longs making EU go up.

Have you followed EU breakout on September 12? Once 1.3850 was broken, it went up like a bullet few days later and reached 1.4280 in two weeks. Now, two weeks later, it is trying to reach this level again; but can you notice how much it is struggling to do this? Nothing in buying pressure compares to the first attempts!

English translation: There's no more serious buyers willing to add to their positions, and BD are starting to get rid of their own positions at the best up level they can.

They have a huge amount of EU, bought in the previous down move, they are selling now. Let me explain more:

Indeed, when you buy, you are buying from someone that is selling!
And who is selling, taking the other side of your trades?
The BD of course!!! So in the previous up move BD where selling the old buying they got from the older down move and initial up move they created in the low levels. So they pushed the price break at 1.3850 and they have now lot of EUs they want to sell as hi as they can, near the upper level, around 1.43. They did the first sell and got rid of the first part. But they still have plenty, so they pushed the move up by stopping the down move @1.40 level. So traders went buying again what BD is selling!

So why 1.43 will not be broken? Because traders have already went long a lot of volume, and there's no really new traders willing to buy much more. Will BD buy? Not really, they already have plenty and they don't have enough power to buy much more. What they have, is the power of the manipulation of trader’s brain they did during this up move.

If I ask you what side of the trade would you do with EU, you would tell me you will buy and not sell since it is in an uptrend and the trend is your friend, and that $ is very weak and that 1.45 is the target and all this kind of analysis banks give us.

But I am not sure you are really willing to buy now, or at least buy big, do you? I think the reason is you feel the prices are a little bit too hi and you would prefer to buy on dip. How dip? 1.41? 1.40? Depending on traders, these are the buying levels and BD knows this.

So this is their double strategy: leave price go up as much as possible while they are getting rid slowly of their buys. Just letting buy offers more than sell offers. EU will rise slowly. Somewhere between 1.42 and 1.43, when they feel buying are very low, they will sell massively, prices will go down very quickly stopping @1.42 for a little moment, then 1.4150, 1.41, 1.40 with some bounces that will encourage buyers to go massively since this is the expected best buying opportunity in this uptrend. You buy the dips in the up trend, don't you?

Well this time it will bounce then go down lower and lower and you will have all your stops hit. Lot of traders will have margin calls and will fund their account again. Down to where? 1.385? Well buyers will go strong here, but they will fail again and again and everybody will be talking about trend reversal and start opening sell positions, slowly first, then more and more until the same scenario in the inverse mode.

Very intelligent scenario, traders fell inside every time since dozens of years and will still fell inside dozens of years.

I hope I was clear enough and that make sense.

Happy trading to all,

Hani J
  • #70
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:19am Oct 16, 2007 1:19am
Why EU is ranging?

One real reason Offers >= Demand

Even that BD are trying to let us think EU is going up to the sky, there's no real believe this will be done now! Timing is very important. And it is just not the time for EU to go up!

Lot of smart long term traders are strating to sell knowing that they have a fair chance to get hundreds of pips (200 to 600) for only 70 to 100 pips risk.
An ideal setup for them and they will most probably push the market down faster than BD would like it to do.

Here an analysis exemple from Odom & Frey

EUR/USD:
The Euro pushed back up to test the old highs this past week. We have so far be unable to break through these highs and we see this market continuing to fail to break through in the near term. We are holding a short position from 1.4225 with stops above 1.4289.

Another analysis from FX Strategy

EUR/USD (1.4209)
Trading range: 1.4155 – 1.4245
Trend: Neutral
Although the Federal Reserve chairmen Bernanke pledge to act as needed to help the financial market the dollar not made recovery against the major currencies. The words not help it is necessary real action. The Bernanke words didn’t show new lights about the Fed interest rates politic. The key economic event today is US Industrial Production. If the dollar fell below 1.4245 it is expecting fast movement to 1.4280 and test of the current record level.

Analysis are less and less enthousiastic about 1.45 being reached now, just a test of 'the current record level' and then we will see!
  • #71
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:03am Oct 16, 2007 2:03am
My pivot level for today is @1.4200 and it has been tested with a bounce. If I was bullish, I would have bought targeting the 1.4240 and 1.4280.

But I am still more and more bearish So I will be selling again @1.4220 and 1.4240 targeting 1.42 first, then 1.4180.

1.4180 level is major for today and if broken will take to 1.4140-50 where it will bounce first for a while then if broken will take to 1.4080-85 level.

So I will sell the 2 highs and every break on a bounce back on new resistance created by the breach.
  • #72
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:08am Oct 16, 2007 2:08am
I had yesterday 2 aggressive trades @1.4188 and 1.4189 closed the first for +13 pips and the second is still running. May close it for -13 pips or better so I break even in these two trades since I made lot of pips with other trades and I can get better selling prices.

Sold again @1.4220 and @1.4228 then @1.4232 and 1.4229.
Close 2 positions for +10 pips then sold back @1.4235
I got disconnected from the Internet for 14 hours and unable to close them around 1.4195 level.

So I closed them today for +15+20+25=60 pips

So I have till now 13+10+60= + 83 pips closed

Still 3 running position @1.4189, 1.4216 and 1.4220
  • #73
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:20am Oct 16, 2007 2:20am
Still 3 running position @1.4189, 1.4216 and 1.4220 from mon

Sold 2 new position @1.4216 and 1.4219

Closed pos. 1.2420 @1.4203 for +17 pips (was intending to close @1.4200 but the connection is slow and it closed 3 pips less)

Currently prices are testing pivot again and may break it at any time.

Will sell a bounce back
  • #74
  • Edited 2:33am Oct 16, 2007 2:29am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting haniam
Still 3 running position @1.4189, 1.4216 and 1.4220 from mon

Sold 2 new position @1.4216 and 1.4219

Closed pos. 1.2420 @1.4203 for +17 pips (was intending to close @1.4200 but the connection is slow and it closed 3 pips less)

Currently prices are testing pivot again and may break it at any time.

Will sell a bounce back
all positions closed for 25+25+25+1= + 76 pips

Will sell back on pivot retest or 1.4180 break
  • #75
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:37am Oct 16, 2007 2:37am
Quoting haniam
all positions closed for 25+25+25+1= + 76 pips

Will sell back on pivot retest or 1.4180 break
The break happen too quickly for me to sell (I was updating the journal) . I will wait for a pullback to sell again unless 1.4140 is reached before.

If you sold cover around 1.4140 level

Good support @1.4160 and I would have (If I had sold) covered half my positions here to sell again higher
  • #76
  • Oct 16, 2007 3:10am Oct 16, 2007 3:10am
Quoting haniam
The break happen too quickly for me to sell (I was updating the journal) . I will wait for a pullback to sell again unless 1.4140 is reached before.

If you sold cover around 1.4140 level

Good support @1.4160 and I would have (If I had sold) covered half my positions here to sell again higher
Prices are bouncing on 1.4155-60 support level
I think it will not break on this first attempt and a pullback can be expected and will give an oppurtunity to sell again.

As you may have noticed, selling force is much more powerful then the buying force.

In english: Offers >= Demand

We will see lot of these big black candles in the coming days.

If or when 1.4150 is broken, we will see quickly enough a retest of 1.4080.

If you are bull, it is not yet time to buy, or you will getting right into BD teeth!
  • #77
  • Oct 16, 2007 4:47am Oct 16, 2007 4:47am
Here is a snapshot of my trades for Monday and Tuesday

Attached Image


I did not sell back yet @1.4180 as planed. Could have got 20-30 pips, but already had plenty (176 pips) so will wait:

1- A bigger retracement to sell a bounce back at my pivot level 1.42 and again if 1.4220 was tested again with 1.4265 as SL which will be lowered later as the trades go on.

2- A break of 1.4135-40 to sell targetting 1.4080
  • #78
  • Oct 16, 2007 7:59am Oct 16, 2007 7:59am
Glad I found this thread. What you posted sounds exactly the situation I'm in, ie I was trying to trade the trend with Jacko's method yet I continue to lose.
I will be following this thread hoping to learn from you.
I thank you very much for your sharing.
  • #79
  • Oct 16, 2007 8:39am Oct 16, 2007 8:39am
Quoting qq1
Glad I found this thread. What you posted sounds exactly the situation I'm in, ie I was trying to trade the trend with Jacko's method yet I continue to lose.
I will be following this thread hoping to learn from you.
I thank you very much for your sharing.
Welcome qq1 to the anti BD thread,

I am glad my BD thread may help you in your trading. I created it to help traders in your situation to better understand the market so they fell less in BD traps.

Please note that if you continue to lose by trading the trend with Jacko's method is because you are trading it in your way not in Jacko's way, else you should not be losing since you would not be doing any trade since weeks!

Jacko specified well that he will not be going long at 1.4 because he believe prices will go lower, so if you are losing, you are not following his method but one you ahve created...

I assure you that you can win by following Jacko's method but you have to follow it as it is, and by applying the basic knowledge I am sharing in this thread, you will be able to trade by your own after few months of practice.

Good work qq1 and continue your training towards a successful FOrex trading future.

Hani
  • #80
  • Oct 16, 2007 9:43am Oct 16, 2007 9:43am
Quoting haniam
Good work qq1 and continue your training towards a successful FOrex trading future.

Hani

Hi Hani, I'm being following your thread very closely since you've started
and your insight about BD make me realized and reviewed the real world of forex. It's a must knowledge in order to survive and success in this business.
I think, without knowing how all these BD's manipulation and their 'pattern&motives', (in most cases, newbies like myself) usually will be wiped out sooner or later no matter how good ya you got a those nice,colorful& fancy 'new-found' indicators. (for example ya, see you divengence there! oh.it's coming, and got that colorful arrow appeared to confirm signal., so, time to shoot it(big, GREED) & grab big pips, however, BD knows that..... they send you one spike of price-movement against you to hunt your SL!. So, what you see and expecting is not what u think will happen.
Too many times, i see those manipulation of price movements as what you are educating. Very very true. Forex is full of BDs, they want your stoploss desperately and they have the genius killing-stings and know where to find those small-fishes-$toploss.

Thank you, Hani. Please continue to teach us and make us aware about
those BD's killing-stings-weapons. Together, we learn and we survive and we definitely will grow.

Max
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