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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #6,961
  • Oct 12, 2007 2:19am Oct 12, 2007 2:19am
Quoting mbqb11
sure I use two broker charting works for me. As long as you aren't chasing signals and following your plan I give it a thumbs up

thanks mike

you have no idea how much inspiration i have from you

i can actually feel the giving from you!
  • #6,962
  • Oct 12, 2007 2:24am Oct 12, 2007 2:24am
Quoting mamutot
thanks mike

you have no idea how much inspiration i have from you

i can actually feel the giving from you!
go get them pips
  • #6,963
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:21am Oct 12, 2007 7:21am
well, the gbpchf is going well so far, a bit fast but i am allert...

what are your thoughts of this failed DBHLC? would you enter long on the break of it??

luckily i went for the break short on demo...didnt get profit quick enough or moved to b/e..its ok - something to learn from




and what about NZDUSD?? DBLHC - its kinda off fib 38 - but not really a perfect setup..

i am looking for thoughts - not trying to force a trade.. - just to have a thinking process..

thanks
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  • #6,964
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:55am Oct 12, 2007 7:55am
mamutot,

If you can use two charting packages and do fine, then do it--but be careful that you don't get analysis paralisys from looking at two potentially conflicting signals. Remember that one is not "ahead" of the other, but they must be seen in the context of each other.

An observation--on your fibs you have drawn, you have a 25 and 75 level. Again, if these work for you, then by all means use them. But realize that the significance of those levels as determined by the masses is pretty low. I use three--38, 50, and 61. When you add 25 and 75, you have the potential to fool yourself into thinking that the fibs are telling you something significant, when in fact there may not be. In fact, on a 100 pip retracement measurement, if you just use three levels of significance, and considering a price move to within one pip on either side of a retracement level to be a "significant" retracement, then the probability, assuming random distribution, of price to be at one of those levels is 9%. Adding two more levels increases that to 15%... so price just being there has a 15% chance of telling you something "significant" -- too high in my book. I need an "event" that is rare enough that if it happens, then it means something. Adding fib lines will not make price action more significant. Just a thought, nothing more!
  • #6,965
  • Oct 12, 2007 8:07am Oct 12, 2007 8:07am
Quoting JoshDance
mamutot,

If you can use two charting packages and do fine, then do it--but be careful that you don't get analysis paralisys from looking at two potentially conflicting signals. Remember that one is not "ahead" of the other, but they must be seen in the context of each other.

An observation--on your fibs you have drawn, you have a 25 and 75 level. Again, if these work for you, then by all means use them. But realize that the significance of those levels as determined by the masses is pretty low. I use three--38, 50, and 61. When you add 25 and 75, you have the potential to fool yourself into thinking that the fibs are telling you something significant, when in fact there may not be. In fact, on a 100 pip retracement measurement, if you just use three levels of significance, and considering a price move to within one pip on either side of a retracement level to be a "significant" retracement, then the probability, assuming random distribution, of price to be at one of those levels is 9%. Adding two more levels increases that to 15%... so price just being there has a 15% chance of telling you something "significant" -- too high in my book. I need an "event" that is rare enough that if it happens, then it means something. Adding fib lines will not make price action more significant. Just a thought, nothing more!

thanks for your respond, actually the 25 and 75 are just there because i look at another way of entering trades that i combine along with PA, it is defintely not a level i look at as provviding enough retracement - i am aware of it, it simply was there...

about the charting - what happenned was that i saw the price bounce off really nice of a s/r level i had on my chart - and looked to see whether it says any PA on the other chart - was that what you meant? to let the other chart give me a confirmation of what i get is going on in the market?

thank you.
  • #6,966
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:01pm Oct 12, 2007 7:01pm
I rate today's daily Pin Bar as a B- C+... not in great location but bouncing off a fib and perhaps bottom of channel... fair chance it will return some pips.

If I trade it, I would trade after a break of the Pin with two positions... first profit target at 2.0460. Move stop to break even or above to lock in some pips for second position... then trail stop...

Sound right or not...??

THX
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  • #6,967
  • Oct 13, 2007 1:20am Oct 13, 2007 1:20am
Quoting Tiki Trader
I rate today's daily Pin Bar as a B- C+... not in great location but bouncing off a fib and perhaps bottom of channel... fair chance it will return some pips.

If I trade it, I would trade after a break of the Pin with two positions... first profit target at 2.0460. Move stop to break even or above to lock in some pips for second position... then trail stop...

Sound right or not...??

THX
here is my problem with this bar. yes it is technically a pinbar

But look what we are trapped within. This range tends to limit these types of bars

So the positive. A pinbar at the bottom of a temporary channel. This may move to the top(most likely.)

The negative. The potential to get out of this channel to me is as good as a coin flip.. Is getting your money in on a coin flip scenario worth it. For me no. I would rather wait for a breakout, and a confirmation.

Please make your own analysis and stick to it. This is simply my view
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  • #6,968
  • Oct 13, 2007 4:36am Oct 13, 2007 4:36am
And that was pretty much my thinking... The Pin is likely good enough just to get to the top of the channel... I am not thinking all that bad these days.



Quoting mbqb11
here is my problem with this bar. yes it is technically a pinbar

But look what we are trapped within. This range tends to limit these types of bars

So the positive. A pinbar at the bottom of a temporary channel. This may move to the top(most likely.)

The negative. The potential to get out of this channel to me is as good as a coin flip.. Is getting your money in on a coin flip scenario worth it. For me no. I would rather wait for a breakout, and a confirmation.

Please make your own analysis and stick to it. This is simply my view
  • #6,969
  • Oct 13, 2007 5:11am Oct 13, 2007 5:11am
Quoting Tiki Trader
And that was pretty much my thinking... The Pin is likely good enough just to get to the top of the channel... I am not thinking all that bad these days.
For what it's worth - I agree with mbq.....

Might be worth some pips, but a "C" bar in my opinion.

Clockwork
  • #6,970
  • Oct 14, 2007 3:34pm Oct 14, 2007 3:34pm
Do you people take PA as a confirming action but with a criteria less good than you would have taken alone? meaning - after a break - would you consider a in traffic PB as confirming PA??

if an example is needed - i will post an image
  • #6,971
  • Oct 14, 2007 3:44pm Oct 14, 2007 3:44pm
Quoting mamutot
Do you people take PA as a confirming action but with a criteria less good than you would have taken alone? meaning - after a break - would you consider a in traffic PB as confirming PA??

if an example is needed - i will post an image
Yes I look for confirming PA, but with less of a strict criteria. I look to find PA after a breakout and then see momentum. So if we have a breakout on the daily and we get an IB and then the IB breaks our way but for a few days price kind of chops around I will consider closing depending on the look.
  • #6,972
  • Oct 14, 2007 3:55pm Oct 14, 2007 3:55pm
Quoting mbqb11
I look to find PA after a breakout and then see momentum. .

what you define as momentum?

i am familliar with this term from Dynamic and Statistics Lessons at the university - what is your definition?
  • #6,973
  • Oct 14, 2007 4:07pm Oct 14, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting mamutot
what you define as momentum?

i am familliar with this term from Dynamic and Statistics Lessons at the university - what is your definition?
It isn't much more then reading the price action. If the market doesn't advanced as expected(I don't mean it goes shooting through), But if my entry is barely hit, and then price just sits there for a few days, I have to decided if it is worth remaining in that position, which involves other decision making factors of course.

The question I always try to ask myself being as objective as possible is:

Is this a position I want to be in? If i wasn't in the trade, would I want to be in this trade? If the answer is No, I exit. If the answer is maybe, I usually exit also. If the answer is Yes then I hold.
  • #6,974
  • Oct 14, 2007 4:14pm Oct 14, 2007 4:14pm
thats something i have noticed i do lately - i sk myself those questions, but since i am not that experienced trader - sometimes i don't know what to ask.

i am trying to make a set of rules - like a plan, something that i will always have by my side so i can take a look at - yes, i already have few of them but i feel like havent found something that is whole enough.

i have 1 or 2 about MM

i have 1 or 2 about how i define PB

but it ends with that more or less

can anyone give me any ideas for trading rules?

i am NOT asking for your actual criteria but more of a general idea of it - i might also make a criteria that fits me, ofcourse - i am just looking for ideas.

1 that might sound silly but for me isnt - i decided that i am not taking trades after 1AM my time (GMT +2) since it is really a time when i don't think too clearly - unless it is a daily set-up, and i want to go to bed, and the daily closes 1h later - i will put an order so at the break it will activate, but only this kind of trades, otherwise, i should expect a loser ffew hours later

feel free to PM me about ideas.... would like to get some of those...

thanks anyways
  • #6,975
  • Oct 14, 2007 8:07pm Oct 14, 2007 8:07pm
Just a heads up, an IB4 on the daily.
  • #6,976
  • Oct 14, 2007 8:25pm Oct 14, 2007 8:25pm
I had posted a comment about the daily with some consolidation around the 2.3000 area. It broke for a fall to 2.2500. This will be a consistent drop for the last 5 weeks from a high of 2.4800 to the current low of 2.2500. Math (2300 pips) in the last 5 weeks. I know that many of you do not trade this pair but, I will be watching for some form of correction.
  • #6,977
  • Oct 14, 2007 8:39pm Oct 14, 2007 8:39pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
I had posted a comment about the daily with some consolidation around the 2.3000 area. It broke for a fall to 2.2500. This will be a consistent drop for the last 5 weeks from a high of 2.4800 to the current low of 2.2500. Math (2300 pips) in the last 5 weeks. I know that many of you do not trade this pair but, I will be watching for some form of correction.
I have been trading this pair quite a lot lately especially intraday. I see no reason to try to pick a bottom yet

Just zoom out, picking bottoms here can be dangerous on a pair like this(ie like the loonie also)
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  • #6,978
  • Oct 14, 2007 8:45pm Oct 14, 2007 8:45pm
for all i know we are at a bottom here, but I just see no reason to trade to the long side when the chart looks like this


Just my opinion stay safe all
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  • #6,979
  • Oct 14, 2007 8:59pm Oct 14, 2007 8:59pm
Quoting mbqb11
I have been trading this pair quite a lot lately especially intraday. I see no reason to try to pick a bottom yet

Just zoom out, picking bottoms here can be dangerous on a pair like this(ie like the loonie also)
Yes, my comment was regarding the daily before, and on the weekly we have the 5 bearish bars. We wait for PA, not a bottom. GBP/AUD=(GBP/USD)/(AUD/USD). Do you see any correction on AUD/USD? Best regards.
  • #6,980
  • Oct 14, 2007 9:03pm Oct 14, 2007 9:03pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
Yes, my comment was regarding the daily before, and on the weekly we have the 5 bearish bars. We wait for PA, not a bottom. GBP/AUD=(GBP/USD)/(AUD/USD). Do you see any correction on AUD/USD? Best regards.
Aud is strong. So I continue to look for plays with the trend. If we correct, and I miss the correction I could care less. The idea is if I stick with the longer term trend that is like this I search for longs(in the case of Aud/usd). If my entry criteria is met, I have the strength of the trend behind me, which is putting the odds in my favor. I am not against playing corrections, but in runaway markets I am. Simply b/c I am not good at it. I don't discourage others from doing it. I just encourage everyone to create their own analysis and trade it. I enjoy reading others views on trades/trading, but at the end of the day I am the one in control of my account, so it is only my analysis that I follow.
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