Hakuna's pip stash

Lmao stop this bong business bro, get some rest

short from 238.6--tight s/l

out 75

tight s/l got blown away in less then 4min
lol--stupid trade

yeah still puzzle over what happen, maybe if we got bad news, it would go down.


you da man
you still made a killing today

12/10/07 +150


12/10/07

g/j
S 238.72 exit 238.27 +45
S 238.45 exit 237.95 +50 (av)
S 237.76 exit 237.76
S 238.60 exit 238.75 -15


g/u
S 2.0337 exit 2.0277 +60
S 2.0289 exit 2.0269 +20

Total 2nd week Oct' 07 +548 pips (excl scalps)

(scalp trades for the week--not posted +214 pips)


8/10/07 +88
9/10/07 +228
10/10/07 + 22
11/10/07 +60
12/10/07 +150

*all trades taken live !
posted entries/exits in this thread live !

back in action nxt week

WEEKLY ANALYSIS


please refer to the weekly analysis made last week for comparison:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=49770&page=4
(scroll down)

this is what was mentioned in last week analysis:

Now lets see what upsides we got on g/j chart daily;

We have a confluence of 100sma and Monthly Resistence 2 at around 239.58 ish as the nxt tgt for longs if it continues AND if u llok at weekly candle that BIG BEAR candle 8weeks ago has a high of 239.69—another factor to this confluence
We have the possibility of daily more ideal bearish butterfly pattern to extend to 240.50ish (see daily harmonic chrt)
We have the previous shoulder of the possible H/S pattern on daily at 241.50ish ( see it for yourselves on the daily chart)
And then finally far away in the distant heaven we have 0.786% Daily fib at 244.25
And thing to analyse after that will be done if we get there--lol

ALL THIS STILL STANDS IN THE COMING WEEK'S ANALYSIS

WEEKLY CHART:

-- candle has closed above 61.8% fib (bullish sign)
-- but candle is a spinning top - (undecisive sign)
-- last 5 week candles--all grren/bullish-- close price higher then open price (bullish trend)
--both from weekly and daily chart-- this 61.8% fib is important in a harmonic pattern formation ( AB leg of a possible beraish Gartley or even a bearish Crab) -- bearish sign
-- the arrow points to one of the biggest bear candle this pair has ever seen--we are at the high of that level right now (undecisive sign)

im personally expecting the candle to go retst 50ema on weekly

DAILY CHART:

--on the daily u can see this whole week gone--price basically traded btw 100sma/MR 2 and MR1 (as mentioned in last weeks analysis)
-- it still hasnt closed above 100sma (well just aorund there) --undecisive--more bearsih sign actually
--last 3 candles have got lower highs and lower lows
--ill be more convinced of further UP move as soon as we get a close above 100sma DAILY
-- one more thing about this 100sma daily ( new tip/lesson) is that whenever price reaches 100sma on daily--u will see that it will start ranging near it for a few days ( hence ive been telling everyone past this whole week that dont aim for 200-400 pip tgts --be more conservative in your t/ps and s/l's)

4Hr CHART:

-- need a close above Upper TL for more upside action
--50ema --need i say more??
-- we have 100sma which has crossed 200ema--this is a very lagged indication--but just keep an eye on it
--learn how to use MOnthly pivots and its S/R levels--ive spoken about thme on many occasions--look for open/close of candles above below them (hint)
-- see where the boundaries are drawn--see the range and areas u can scalp trades in btw-- last weeks analysis gave an awesome range to scalp in btw. So will this coming week as long as the range is still on !
--retest of 50ema possible

lesson of the week: lot of traders are getting confused by trending and ranging sessions-- I asess this on a 4hr and daily chart by keeping an eye on TL's , MA's and fibs. U need to understand that when it is ranging it is more difficult rather then impossible to aim for 200-400-600 pip tgts ---dont get fooled. Always Bank profits along the way--actually every 50-100 pips. Remember u can always get back in and theres always another trading day (its not the last trading day oy your lives)
Some systems have strategy trades aiming for 200-300pips --its not going to happen in a ranging mkt--even if ths system has previously done so !!
learn, learn and learn how and where to bank profits periodically.

As an intraday trader i use entries and exits from lower TF's--but i always assess like how i do this analysis every weekend on: is it ranging/trending? range bounds? crucial MA and fib levels and basic candlestick patterns--enuff info to prepare me for the new week.

now for downside tgts please refer to last weeks analysis--as my view still stands the same http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=49770&page=4

enjoy !!

HK,

This may be a difficult question to answer, but what is a good indicator the market in trending vs. ranging?

PT

good Q buddy

different TF's will show u whether price is ranging in that TF or trending
diff things e.g price actiion, candlestick arrangement,MA's can be used to chk

as an intraday trader-- i look at 4hr and below TF's to chk trending/ranging conditions.

for e/g --look at the 4hr chrt
look what happened b4 price broke and close above 200ema --it was ranging

price ranges btw MA's , Trend LInes etc
a brk out can represent a trend continuation or reversal

loook at the pic below-- price was in the 2 purple TL's drawy + below 200ema --black(powerful)
look what happened as soon as it broke the TL and went above 200ema--new 4hr trend ( u wont call this a trend on a daily--like i said---diff tf will have diff scenarios)
now chk the wedge its been forming on 4hr- i would still call this ranging in a smaller tf if u were to zoom in lower tf's
i explained above in the analysis that:
"--on the daily u can see this whole week gone--price basically traded btw 100sma/MR 2 and MR1 "

now thats a range too !

another way is to look at for eg a 62sma(red) or 100 sma (pink) and the angle its at for e.g as soon as we broke and closed above that 200ema on 4hr the 100sma started slanting upwards--suggesting a trend continuation



look at major s/r levels using MA's, fibs for a good indiaction of range/trend mode. Every TF will have a diff situation-- u need to first figure out what TF's u trade on and take it from there.

this was just a basic explantion--hope it helped !

S g/u 2.0336

t/p--approx 30pips

exiting at 2.0324
will reneter on a pull back to 2.0330/35

taking a bit too long for the pullback
might consider gettin in a bit here--still watchin price action

short from 2.0331

It looks like the price GBP/JPY is testing 61.8 fib do think will get bounce and if so what about a bounce back up to 239.25?

''sorry bro--still havent got a signal on g/j
2nd g/u not lookin healthy

ill exit g/u on 1/2hr reversal signal

lets see where price closes this hr

close g/u