We are short AUD/USD expect big sell off in gold , silver and aud crosses in 7 days.
- #4
- Oct 13, 2007 8:41am Oct 13, 2007 8:41am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
As a "Cable-freak-on-hold" with the recent developments, I'd like to find nice set up elsewhere...
So, if you don't mind clarifying:
1)- Big selloff in which timeframe? Monthly open is 8893 and below that level, we might have a short entry for huge pips. Or are you talking smaller TF / smaller pips (yet big) with 90XX as temporary toppish?
2)- What would trigger metal's selloff? Seen gold is banging the 750 level. Is it an important psychological level or 800 is yet to be traded?
Thanks
So, if you don't mind clarifying:
1)- Big selloff in which timeframe? Monthly open is 8893 and below that level, we might have a short entry for huge pips. Or are you talking smaller TF / smaller pips (yet big) with 90XX as temporary toppish?
2)- What would trigger metal's selloff? Seen gold is banging the 750 level. Is it an important psychological level or 800 is yet to be traded?
Thanks
- #5
- Oct 13, 2007 8:54am Oct 13, 2007 8:54am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #6
- Oct 13, 2007 9:14am Oct 13, 2007 9:14am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
As a "Cable-freak-on-hold" with the recent developments, I'd like to find nice set up elsewhere...
So, if you don't mind clarifying:
1)- Big selloff in which timeframe? Monthly open is 8893 and below that level, we might have a short entry for huge pips. Or are you talking smaller TF / smaller pips (yet big) with 90XX as temporary toppish?
2)- What would trigger metal's selloff? Seen gold is banging the 750 level. Is it an important psychological level or 800 is yet to be traded?
Thanks
There are two schools of thought, one is that the Aud will reach parity because of the China story, i.e. commodities demand. However there's also another school which says that gold is overvalued, and that the weak dollar(which moves inversely to gold) is artificially low. So there you have it. Dunno if that mades sense
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #7
- Oct 13, 2007 9:52am Oct 13, 2007 9:52am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
cesar,
There are two schools of thought, one is that the Aud will reach parity because of the China story, i.e. commodities demand. However there's also another school which says that gold is overvalued, and that the weak dollar(which moves inversely to gold) is artificially low. So there you have it. Dunno if that mades sense
Question is which happens first.
I'm following gold to as a reference on the dollar bias. It's also in a huge uptrend since August to $100 almost non-stop.
Both of them are already showing early signs of divergence and OB readings in the higher timeframes, although I know it's dangerous to trade those situations in anticipation.
Anyways, I think there is a short opportunity in AUD via Gold correction / dollar shorts squeeze. Maybe some 300 pips (out of the 1,400 = 23%).
A good entry + well put SL might work. I will check this pair and gold this week trying to findout this possible entry.
In the other hand a 23% discount might call bulls in. That is possibly an opportunity to go long... 87-ish...
- #8
- Oct 13, 2007 9:58am Oct 13, 2007 9:58am
- | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Fundamentally Technical | 4,446 Posts
I don't think one cancel the other. AUD is in a monstrous uptrend since August, 1,400 pips with 8 bearish days in 2 months! LOLLLL
Question is which happens first.
I'm following gold to as a reference on the dollar bias. It's also in a huge uptrend since August to $100 almost non-stop.
Both of them are already showing early signs of divergence and OB readings in the higher timeframes, although I know it's dangerous to trade those situations in anticipation.
Anyways, I think there is a short opportunity in AUD via Gold correction / dollar shorts squeeze. Maybe some 300 pips (out of the 1,400 = 23%).
A good entry + well put SL might work. I will check this pair and gold this week trying to findout this possible entry.
In the other hand a 23% discount might call bulls in. That is possibly an opportunity to go long... 87-ish...
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
- #9
- Last Post: Oct 13, 2007 10:04am Oct 13, 2007 10:04am
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Shoot all the clowns.. Shoot'em all | 14,520 Posts
True enough, but I think that what can occur is that the bearish scenario just forces folks to bail out, which we have seen with the infamous "chart breakdown". I actually believe a correction will take place at the .9100 test level. I'm waiting
I think now 89 is a possible entry, depending on strength. at 91, I would lift to 90. Playing round figures only to avoid thinking too much...
What about 91 closing below 90 forming a weekly pinbar?
Indeed, time of waiting....