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  • #121
  • Oct 13, 2007 7:52am Oct 13, 2007 7:52am
Great call on the 62 envelope for trend direction identification only. Too many people try to use envelopes or MA's as a "trading system" and it leads to a blown account.

I hope more people (newbies) come to your thread to actually learn how to trade. Many, many sites/threads are based on some silly cross over or time of day trade or an EA that will make you millions. I'm here to tell ya, none of it works if you don't know how to trade, it takes the right info (provided here) and a lot of practice (for confidence) and you're golden.

Trading is pretty easy if you stay out of the noise/hype of some crazy ego driven idiots thread started for the mere purpose of "be'n the man"! There are a lot of good threads here at FF, but few teach you how to trade.

IMO your system should be knowing how to trade, your conformation for triggering a trade should come from a "trading system".

Great job Bo.
Robonacci com
  • #122
  • Oct 13, 2007 9:49am Oct 13, 2007 9:49am
Quoting SKUNNY
Great call on the 62 envelope for trend direction identification only. Too many people try to use envelopes or MA's as a "trading system" and it leads to a blown account.

I hope more people (newbies) come to your thread to actually learn how to trade. Many, many sites/threads are based on some silly cross over or time of day trade or an EA that will make you millions. I'm here to tell ya, none of it works if you don't know how to trade, it takes the right info (provided here) and a lot of practice (for confidence) and you're golden.

Trading is pretty easy if you stay out of the noise/hype of some crazy ego driven idiots thread started for the mere purpose of "be'n the man"! There are a lot of good threads here at FF, but few teach you how to trade.

IMO your system should be knowing how to trade, your conformation for triggering a trade should come from a "trading system".

Great job Bo.

Thanks Mr Skunny
You bring up a good point about MA's, To me MA's are a good basic tool, if you think of them more of a moving trendline... in the end you will make better use of them. I look more for the Price in reference to the MA being view'd. An envelope just gives you a better margin of error to try and help filter out some of the whip that is naturally inherent to all currencies. I use the 62 which is fairly popular and on the 1 hour timeframe it gives you that happy medium with GBP/USD.For a long time I used a Linear Weighted 50 for the same purpose that a fellow trader by the name of Rojam showed me but have switched to a 62 Simple over time mainly because its just what works for me and how i trade.
  • #123
  • Edited 6:17pm Oct 13, 2007 12:07pm | Edited 6:17pm
You got it brother, there are a few MA's that I use on every time frame that work well as S/R and trend continuation, all EMA's 50,100,200,400. Just put a 400 EMA on 15mn E/U from last week and see how well it worked.

I'm not to sure why it ended up 50,50x2,100x2,200x2. But it works well as a filter in the event you are going to enter a trade, if one of these are close by I look for a break of the that EMA before I enter. I only use them as an idea where price might be headed. If it breaks the 50 next stop is the 100 and so on. Then using the fib set up I get a pretty good sense of where this crazy market MIGHT be heading. The point being, MA's are very useful as a compliment not a system on their own.

But enough on MA's...lol, this is a fib training thread. And Fib/S/R lines are the most important tools there is IMO.
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  • #124
  • Oct 13, 2007 10:43pm Oct 13, 2007 10:43pm
Hi Bo...

For those traders who want to learn how to trade with fibs..Bo is the real deal. I know for a fact that Bo has spent countless hours developing and back testing what he is showing you on this thread. So if you have a desire to learn about Fibs, you've come to the right place.

Bo...when I am pulling the intermediate fib and the ranging fib they look to be covering the same swing highs and lows. Does this happen sometime and do you always have all of the fibs on your charts or are there times when you don't use all of the different fibs?
  • #125
  • Oct 13, 2007 11:22pm Oct 13, 2007 11:22pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo...

For those traders who want to learn how to trade with fibs..Bo is the real deal. I know for a fact that Bo has spent countless hours developing and back testing what he is showing you on this thread. So if you have a desire to learn about Fibs, you've come to the right place.

Bo...when I am pulling the intermediate fib and the ranging fib they look to be covering the same swing highs and lows. Does this happen sometime and do you always have all of the fibs on your charts or are there times when you don't use all of the different fibs?
Yes there will be times when you wont have all all sets on a chart case in point would be right after a long run in a trend when there is no intermediate swing to pull off of..pretty much resetting all your sets to the trending move.
The ranging set is only pulled across the last move just before a ranging period.Previous page i put up more detail on placing the range set and its use.
  • #126
  • Oct 14, 2007 1:25am Oct 14, 2007 1:25am
I look at where things were left on Friday and I find I don't know how to handle the coming day, unless Sunday ranges around to point somewhere.

Price is now sitting in the trading range of the last significant high to low move from a few days ago to Friday. If price shorts out of there, it doesn't have far to go until it falls in the trading range of just Friday's move up.

So would we consider a short out of the longer time frame trading zone (if it makes it inside the Friday smaller trading zone it could fall to the lower end of that trading range and that would be good) but there is a risk of it bouncing off the top of Friday's trade zone, not penetrating, just reversing toward the previous longer move's trading zone.

If Sunday gives a few smaller "swings" to monitor before leaving the longer move's trading zone, and it breaks short of a swing zone plus the longer time trade zone, maybe it is a more confident short toward the Friday trade zone but I'm just trying to convince myself.

Maybe any sane person should be cautious about that move, and it's proper instinct rather than pure inexperience talking in my head.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #127
  • Edited 7:35pm Oct 14, 2007 4:05am | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting Thexder
I look at where things were left on Friday and I find I don't know how to handle the coming day, unless Sunday ranges around to point somewhere.

Price is now sitting in the trading range of the last significant high to low move from a few days ago to Friday. If price shorts out of there, it doesn't have far to go until it falls in the trading range of just Friday's move up.

So would we consider a short out of the longer time frame trading zone (if it makes it inside the Friday smaller trading zone it could fall to the lower end of that trading range and that would be good) but there is a risk of it bouncing off the top of Friday's trade zone, not penetrating, just reversing toward the previous longer move's trading zone.

If Sunday gives a few smaller "swings" to monitor before leaving the longer move's trading zone, and it breaks short of a swing zone plus the longer time trade zone, maybe it is a more confident short toward the Friday trade zone but I'm just trying to convince myself.

Maybe any sane person should be cautious about that move, and it's proper instinct rather than pure inexperience talking in my head.
Good observation...at this point we are in a wait and see mode.Trendlines can help you detirmine if price is gonna try and rally here. Place one across the highs we have since last Wednesday and look for a candle open above there. I am watching for the continuation from the move Friday after the news event. We had the test of support that held at 2.0258..from that move price has rallied out of the trading zone and common sense would suggest we are gonna attempt 2.403/2.0428. The key would be a break of the trendline or the break of the high from Friday and you will have the answer your looking for. A failure at the high of Friday and price should drop back to test support from the Intraday fib of Friday. So yes wait and see mode untill the next level of resistance or support is broken or tested
  • #128
  • Oct 14, 2007 10:13pm Oct 14, 2007 10:13pm
Hi Bo and Skunny! It's me DD here.. So glad to find you back!
Harmonics and Pitchfork using korHarmonics from TradingArsenal
  • #129
  • Oct 14, 2007 10:45pm Oct 14, 2007 10:45pm
Hey...you DareDevil you !
  • #130
  • Oct 14, 2007 10:46pm Oct 14, 2007 10:46pm
Quoting GreatYves
Hi Bo and Skunny! It's me DD here.. So glad to find you back!
Good to see ya, how's the trading been going
  • #131
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:11am Oct 15, 2007 4:11am
Here is a long set up on the gbp. There is a bounce from the 61.8 Intraday fib. Price moves up and bounces several times at the 50 swing fib.Notice that price never closes below the 50 swing fib. Price starts to move up and the entry is at 2.0364 which is very conservative (break of Friday's high). Notice how price makes it to the Take Profit (TP2) extension of the swing fib. Exited at 2.0384 for +20 pips.
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  • #132
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:29am Oct 15, 2007 4:29am
Thanks Dave
I saw the intermediate fib there and Friday high. Need swing lessons.
Bo, please continue lessons on the swing fib. I'm unsure there and that's where the action is. That and coming out of the 38.2 to 61.8 box.
  • #133
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:56am Oct 15, 2007 6:56am
This has been a day of uncertainty for me. I already illustrated the doubts with taking a short if price had retraced into the trade zone from Friday's range (it bounced off the top and went up), so in looking for a long entry, knowing now that it would have worked out and hit targets I still don't think I'd have been confident taking it.
The break of Friday's high happens to be near the 0.5 retracement of the long down move before Friday, so it's possible that after a long from Friday's high, a bounce about 20 pips above would occur at the Long fib of the trading zone of the big down move before Friday. Also price seemed to graze along the trendline of the recent highs and once it finally started moving above, there were still long tails with dips back down on every candle right up to the top of the trading zone of the long down move retracement.

It all looked like a big nighit of indecision. Is there any other confidence to have supported the long position? Maybe that swing fib not having a candle body close below it's pivot....but is it enough or just curve fitting? Could we use that judgement next time?

At least I feel better about this stuff every day, even if I'm learning to hesitate for the right reasons ("no position" is a valid position).
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #134
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:58am Oct 15, 2007 7:58am
You also need to consider the long term trends when making trading decisions. GBP trend is up on the daily,the weekly and the monthly so trades in the long direction are your best bets.
  • #135
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:03am Oct 15, 2007 9:03am
I think it would be best to simplify thing a little to help show what you should look for as an entry.I removed all the Fibs on the chart leaving the Intraday fib from friday.The Intraday fib is the main entry trigger.
If you scroll back and read post #127, youll see we got just what we were waiting for. we had the early test of the high from Friday (during Sunday) and price could not breech it, it trickled back down until it reached the support area from the Intraday fib and showed us what we wanted to see...the bounce. Indicating we could get another attempt at the high from friday next.To open the door to the targets all we needed to see was the break of the high from there and its on.An entry is a candle open off the bounce (yellow arrow).The next entry is the break of the previous high (white arrow).
from there target 1 is the conservative target and target 2 is the aggressive target. I think starting this way may make things a little easier to understand rather than having all the fibs on there at one time. It will cause you to over analyze and second guess yourself unless you focus on the Intraday fib. The other fibs just show possible reversal points that could get in your way of reaching the targets on a daily basis
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  • #136
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:17am Oct 15, 2007 9:17am
Quoting TEugene
Thanks Dave
I saw the intermediate fib there and Friday high. Need swing lessons.
Bo, please continue lessons on the swing fib. I'm unsure there and that's where the action is. That and coming out of the 38.2 to 61.8 box.
The swing fib just allows you to follow the market and show you the possibilities of the market turning against you once in a trade, how I would have used it last night is below in the following charts and posts. This first swing measures the high from friday and the low it made just before the bounce.If you entered off the bounce you can see you never get a candle open below the swing fib (Short) a good indication to hold the trade. If a candle had opened below the Short fib line your trade would have been in trouble.
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  • #137
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:21am Oct 15, 2007 9:21am
Now if you swing the high over to where price kinda stalled out (typical during the asian session) that still no sign of reversal on your position...(a break of the swing Short fib)
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  • #138
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:25am Oct 15, 2007 9:25am
Next swing the low now to the low it made during the little consolidation period it went through before the attempt on the high was made.Still no reason to close the trade if you were long. You get the price moving through the swing fibs but its where they open and close that matters.
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  • #139
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:29am Oct 15, 2007 9:29am
Now the high is broken and stalls we simply swing the high of the swing fib to the high where it stalls, from here you can see once the London session started to kick in that the price took off after the break of Fridays high and your swing fib is never really tested until the target is hit.
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  • #140
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:32am Oct 15, 2007 9:32am
Which brings us to where we are right now in the market,price still trying to hit that target 2.
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