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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #7,401
  • Oct 12, 2007 6:57am Oct 12, 2007 6:57am
95 pips for the week on the $Yen:

Here was my third entry with the 4hr touching the 21. Note: The 4hr chart does look flat and has been stuck in a range for the past few days. But, all of the rules are still there with the Rhythm Strength and where price is with the moving averages. The gray vertical line show my entry. If you notice several bars before at the blue vertical line, how hard price fell and closed below the 89 twice. But, the price at the 21 on the 4hr was still holding. I still waited because the closes below the 89 showed weakness on the 1hr. Price promptly ran back up and came back to the 21 again on the 4hr. Now, price is finding support on the 1 hour as well. I entered on a buy limit order at 117.20 and it got hit...barely. Got out with 20 pips and moved the remaining position to b/e.

If anyone missed it. Under the Tools link on the webpage there are 4hr and 1hr charts to print out from January 1st through the first week of October. It's a good exercise to print these out and see how price reacts to the moving averages and MACD patterns.
Attached Image
  • #7,402
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:42am Oct 12, 2007 7:42am
This is tempting but too soon. Bernancke (spelling?) is due to speak and the conusmer sentiment is due also...

Out of the $Yen...nice.

Price at the 21 on the EUR$:
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  • #7,403
  • Oct 12, 2007 8:25am Oct 12, 2007 8:25am
Quoting Palmer
This is where I got in on the 1 hr at that bump off the 21 on the 4 hr. I went long ( gray vertical line) at 117.14. That next candle's low was 116.95. I had a 20 to 25 pip target in mind so my stop ended up being several pips below that candle's low and didn't get stopped out. The market started to take off in the morning. The vertical blue line is where I exited on the close of that bar, spinning top, for about 50 pips.
Thanks for your info. Do you determine your stop loss after the tail down to 116.95?
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #7,404
  • Oct 12, 2007 8:49am Oct 12, 2007 8:49am
I had a stop in mind before that candle. The 4hr has been range bound so I'm thinking that there is support somewhere on the 1 hour as well. It's not an exact 1:1 ratio with the risk:reward. I give more room to the stop loss (but not much) because nothing is perfect. Stops and profit targets need some room to breathe on both sides. I've been in too many trades where I was too conservative with stops and too generous with profit targets and the result was a losing trade. Take bites out here and there and move remaining positions to b/e and let those run if they chose to....
  • #7,405
  • Oct 12, 2007 10:01am Oct 12, 2007 10:01am
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 12 Oct2007.zip   745 KB | 1,616 downloads
  • #7,406
  • Edited 12:20pm Oct 12, 2007 10:24am | Edited 12:20pm
thanks for the info phil.

regarding the cable trade. would you have traded it if you had instead of trendline c the trendline drawn as i did? at that point the signal came right before the trendline. thanks in advance

janson
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  • #7,407
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:42am Oct 12, 2007 11:42am
c'e' qualche fratello italiano che puo' spiegarmi cosa significano:
RT
RB
VT
VB
TC
ZB

EXPLAIN ABOUT?
THANK YOU
  • #7,408
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:43am Oct 12, 2007 11:43am
Here is a written copy of Phillip's daily wrapup for the 12th of October for those who have problems in understanding spoken English. See Phillip's post for the chart.
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File Type: doc 12th October wrapup.doc   28 KB | 672 downloads
  • #7,409
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:44am Oct 12, 2007 11:44am
Quoting janson
thanks for the info phil.

regarding the cable trade. would you have traded it if you had instead of trendline c the trendline drawed as i did? at that point the signal came right before the trendline. thanks in advance

janson
Thanks for that. I would not have taken it due to the position of that supp line as you have it. It is not that yours is wrong. I saw the pullback to the 89 and that is where I had my supp line drawn. As the motion weight more to the downside after that 8:00 candle close I took the decision. to go short. What I like about a pullback and the forming of a tail is that your stop have to be only on the otherside of the pullback level as in this case just above the 89 and the stoploss is sometimes small making the R:R worth it.
Phillip
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  • #7,410
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:58am Oct 12, 2007 11:58am
Quoting eagle
c'e' qualche fratello italiano che puo' spiegarmi cosa significano:
RT
RB
VT
VB
TC
ZB

EXPLAIN ABOUT?
THANK YOU
Ciao fratello,

RT=Round Top
VT=V-Top
RB=Round Bottom
VB=V-Bottom
TC=Trend Continue
ZB=Zero Bounce

il tutto riferito ai "movimenti" che fa il "MACD" e a come li fa e cioé se sono arrotondati, a "V", se rimbalza sullo zero o se è uno schema che indica un proseguimento della tendenza (trend).

Piacere di aver sentito un italiano. Spero di esserti stato utile.
Ciao.
  • #7,411
  • Oct 12, 2007 12:32pm Oct 12, 2007 12:32pm
I want to know what I have done wrong to loose this trade? when the price pass through 89, it pulled back to it and move away according to the rule. I took the short and I expected it to reached 200 @ 2.2034. though i took part of the profit and add more to it. eventually, it did not get to my TP1 b4 the price bounced back. WHY IS IT THAT THE PRICE DID'NT GET TO 200??????
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #7,412
  • Edited 1:11pm Oct 12, 2007 1:00pm | Edited 1:11pm
Though, Philip wrap must have answered my question but i still have to share it with you. I was about to post this b4 the wrap but i had urgent call that is why it came late.

I want to know what I have done wrong to loose this trade? when the price pass through 89, it pulled back to it and move away according to the rule. I took the short and I expected it to reached 200 @ 2.2034. though i took part of the profit and add more to it. eventually, it did not get to my TP1 b4 the price bounced back. WHY IS IT THAT THE PRICE DID'NT GET TO 200??????

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 28 KB
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #7,413
  • Oct 12, 2007 1:02pm Oct 12, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting ejiexe
I want to know what I have done wrong to loose this trade? when the price pass through 89, it pulled back to it and move away according to the rule. I took the short and I expected it to reached 200 @ 2.2034. though i took part of the profit and add more to it. eventually, it did not get to my TP1 b4 the price bounced back. WHY IS IT THAT THE PRICE DID'NT GET TO 200??????
The price ran 55pips down before turning around. If that amount of pips gain turn into a loss it is bad decisions or it could not be watched live and the stoploss was not set at breakeven. I see that you took partial profit and then add to it. Then it was unnecesary to take partial profit. Partial profit is there to secure a non loss situation and to add to the remaining position can only happen when there is a new signal given that support the original decision.

Why it did not reached the 200 is that the rules is guidelines and the market does not allways take note of rules. It does its own thing. I could not watch it live so I went to Breakeven after 25 pips gain and set a trailing stop of 25pips and manage allmost 30 pips.

If the 200 is say 60pips away I never set my TP at 60pips but anything from 10 pips away I am prepared to close the position if there is any signs of the price getting stuck.
  • #7,414
  • Oct 12, 2007 1:31pm Oct 12, 2007 1:31pm
Info
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  • #7,415
  • Oct 12, 2007 3:18pm Oct 12, 2007 3:18pm
Phillip

Just want to make sure I did not miss any thing. The trade this morning was a trade based on your knowlege or feel for the rthym only. I did not see macd confermation. Is that correct. Or am I reading the charts incorectly?


Thanks for all your feed back
  • #7,416
  • Oct 12, 2007 3:47pm Oct 12, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting owkenobi
Ciao fratello,

RT=Round Top
VT=V-Top
RB=Round Bottom
VB=V-Bottom
TC=Trend Continue
ZB=Zero Bounce

il tutto riferito ai "movimenti" che fa il "MACD" e a come li fa e cioé se sono arrotondati, a "V", se rimbalza sullo zero o se è uno schema che indica un proseguimento della tendenza (trend).

Piacere di aver sentito un italiano. Spero di esserti stato utile.
Ciao.
Sei stato gentilissimo.
Grazie
  • #7,417
  • Oct 12, 2007 5:01pm Oct 12, 2007 5:01pm
Hi,

I realize one has to be very careful about ones own emotions.
I've seen this very clearly this week.

On the first trade eur/usd I entered too early before candle close and it was a loser.

The second trade usd/chf I have entered too late and before I entered
I did not consult the 1h chart for cross reference.

The third usd/chf trade was
a loonie decision based on the daily chart. I should forget about having even
thought this way .

The only valuable trade I have entered was the fourth trade, also on
usd/chf. It was based on macd indication on 4h and 1h chart. I could have
closed (b) after realizing that it would not hit the tp target in near future.
Instead I've let it go to sl +/-0.


I remember Philips words form the daily wrapup, that he just enters a few
trades per month, that he spots the few high probability trades.

Thank you Philip for the effort of providing all the lessons, and wrapups to the forum.

I believe if one has learned your system well the chances are very high to
make profitable trades throughout the months and years. Well, that's the
path I've set my foot on.

Thanks again.

I wish everybody a good weekend.


Greetings
  • #7,418
  • Oct 12, 2007 8:48pm Oct 12, 2007 8:48pm
Quoting ejiexe
Though, Philip wrap must have answered my question but i still have to share it with you. I was about to post this b4 the wrap but i had urgent call that is why it came late.

I want to know what I have done wrong to loose this trade? when the price pass through 89, it pulled back to it and move away according to the rule. I took the short and I expected it to reached 200 @ 2.2034. though i took part of the profit and add more to it. eventually, it did not get to my TP1 b4 the price bounced back. WHY IS IT THAT THE PRICE DID'NT GET TO 200??????

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

Hi ejiexe,

I see your question has already been answered, but I want to throw in something that I see on your chart that is very evident to me. Did you notice that Cable has been range bound since on your chart for the last week? Also, the tails of previous candles since 9/26 (think that's what I remember as the date on your chart -- right after the 16:00 candle line) all seemed to bounce about the same place? This is also evident w/the candle today that bounced above the 200 (a flag is also evident on the daily chart)-- this tells me that some profit should be taken before the 200 and the trade moved to BE. If you are unable to monitor the trade via alarms to wake you to do the management, a trailing stop would have been a good option to use.

Happy trading,
Pips
  • #7,419
  • Oct 12, 2007 8:57pm Oct 12, 2007 8:57pm
This is just a quick post to get us all thinking about what our goals are. I'm assuming most on this thread are not trend traders, and because of this we should be prepared to nibble the market -- Palmer referenced this a page or so back with his style -- It is also my style -- and looks like Phillip's too.

We have been taught by the old axiom's to let our profits run...cut losers quick, etc. We have the mistaken illusion that each trade should produce hundreds of pips. Think about your goals -- how long is your exposure to the market per trade? How many pips are reasonable? Nibbler's do very well too. I traded 3 days over the last 7 -- 2 E/U trades, 2 G/U trades and 1 G/J ( the G/J was closed with 28 pips profit after spread)and finished the 7 day period with 335 pips banked. All trades were "nibblers." Think about what you want and how you best can trade. Forget the "let profit run" axiom and think about ways to minimize your loss, maximize your gain and reduce your risk, while giving yourself the opportunity to be part of bigger moves should they occur. Most of us on this thread aren't trend traders, and we shouldn't be looking to bank +100's pips/lot.....Nothing is more painful than watching +90 go to -50! (yes, I have done this in the past and hated myself for days) ...besides our method of trading allows us to plan another trade to maximize bankable profits! Phillip, as always, is incredibly wise -- pips aren't real until they are banked (once they are banked they become cold hard cash to pay the bills with!).

Hope this sparked a few ideas and thoughts!

Pips
  • #7,420
  • Oct 12, 2007 9:19pm Oct 12, 2007 9:19pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The price ran 55pips down before turning around. If that amount of pips gain turn into a loss it is bad decisions or it could not be watched live and the stoploss was not set at breakeven. I see that you took partial profit and then add to it. Then it was unnecesary to take partial profit. Partial profit is there to secure a non loss situation and to add to the remaining position can only happen when there is a new signal given that support the original decision.

Why it did not reached the 200 is that the rules is guidelines and the market does not allways take note of rules. It does its own thing. I could not watch it live so I went to Breakeven after 25 pips gain and set a trailing stop of 25pips and manage allmost 30 pips.

If the 200 is say 60pips away I never set my TP at 60pips but anything from 10 pips away I am prepared to close the position if there is any signs of the price getting stuck.
I see that Phillip Nel and Pips4uandme answered you but I want to answer your question based on what I learned from Phillip

I almost have the same chart setting as you, and if you take a concentrate look to your fibo levels you will see that the price just touch the 38.3 and pull back and also it pulls back just over the trend line you drawn

that's my opinion, Have a nice week end
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