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  • #41
  • Oct 9, 2007 10:27pm Oct 9, 2007 10:27pm
Heres my current view on euro$.

When indicators become crossed, flat, or uncertain, revert back to basic trend lines and rules, and how you have come to know a pair to act.

The yellow entry box falls between the 61.8 and 76.2 fibos. This is also where the euro$ likes to retrace much of the time. The bottom main trend line is actually a median line to an Andrews pitchfork on the weekly chart. So the top main trend line is weekly and holds much significance. So if price over shoots the yellow box there is a 2nd entry at the top trend line. Another point big players will look to go short, and or TP on longs.
And this will complete an a,b,c correction to the 5 waves previous trend.

Today I just wait to see if it takes the first leg of the path.

Dave
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  • #42
  • Oct 9, 2007 11:10pm Oct 9, 2007 11:10pm
As a Day Trader, I agree.
Long for a bit yet...
Sorry that I did not endorse your signal but That's a Timeframe Thing. I Do agree{Somewhat} in the long run. Be ready to {Sell}
  • #43
  • Oct 10, 2007 9:47am Oct 10, 2007 9:47am
nice trade. closed some will let the rest ride in case it goes higher
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  • #44
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:13pm Oct 11, 2007 6:13pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Heres my current view on euro$.

When indicators become crossed, flat, or uncertain, revert back to basic trend lines and rules, and how you have come to know a pair to act.

The yellow entry box falls between the 61.8 and 76.2 fibos. This is also where the euro$ likes to retrace much of the time. The bottom main trend line is actually a median line to an Andrews pitchfork on the weekly chart. So the top main trend line is weekly and holds much significance. So if price over shoots the yellow box there is a 2nd entry at the top trend line. Another point big players will look to go short, and or TP on longs.
And this will complete an a,b,c correction to the 5 waves previous trend.

Today I just wait to see if it takes the first leg of the path.

Dave
Entry level achieved. Now lets see if it confirms and signals a short entry. Looking for ST trend lines to be broke, and a couple ma cross.

Dave
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  • #45
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:35pm Oct 11, 2007 6:35pm
Hello,

A break of the purple pitchfork might lead to a large sell-off.

I'm mostly a scalper, but I do take bigger trades when I see good set-ups (or what appear to be, at least.)
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  • #46
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:43pm Oct 11, 2007 6:43pm
I should also add, if price comes up to test the yello fork, take the short with stop just above today's high. If price reverses there, supposedly there is an 80% chance that it will fall to the median line, at least. I have seen this happen many times.
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  • #47
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:54pm Oct 11, 2007 6:54pm
Here is the current chart I am working off of. Looks like a butterfly about to form. We need a near 38.2 retrace just below median line, then bounce to a slightly new over all high at that top weekly trend line, then look out below!

I agree with the short right here with s/l or hedge placed just above todays high. Currently price is having trouble staying above 1.4200. Needs a new lower entry for longs to take a run at the high again.

Dave
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  • #48
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:59pm Oct 11, 2007 6:59pm
A break of this line would probably mean a break of the purple fork.
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  • #49
  • Edited 10:32pm Oct 11, 2007 10:08pm | Edited 10:32pm
What's happening with EUR/USD right now is the perfect example of two major forces that drive currency price working in opposition.

One the one hand, we had some hawkish ECB comments today (just before equities started their nosedive). And with the fed definately on hold and potentially reducing further, the rate differentials clearly favor the Euro to force EUR/USD up.

On the other hand, an equity/carry trade unwind will likely occur should tomorrow's reports look bad. That force tends to drive EUR/USD down as carry trades unwind, although as you can see on the charts when equities really get going they tend to dominate as they did this afternoon.

Trading when this is occuring makes predicting price even more difficult then normal. What I like to look for is when these forces are acting together, pushing price in the same direction.

This would likely happen should tomorrow's reports look good, because that will give a boost to equity markets and carry trades. In that situation, carry trade winding will be pushing EUR/USD higher at the same time that rate differentials will be exerting their effects as well.
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  • #50
  • Oct 12, 2007 5:26am Oct 12, 2007 5:26am
Well, I had hoped to wake up and see prices down 100+ pips, but instead they have gone down-sideways. So I am putting the stop to b/e and just going to see what happens. Might take the short at top of yellow fork if price action looks right.
  • #51
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:02am Oct 12, 2007 7:02am
My current view is that we are at the beginning of a big c wave down. I had trouble to find the end of the B wave(cause the Fib points were not exact) but my former PF of the Impulse waves gave me a reliable entry.
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  • #52
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:39am Oct 12, 2007 7:39am
Nice chart surfer76!

This circled area would be a great opportunity for the short, if market wants to go there first.
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  • #53
  • Oct 12, 2007 12:25pm Oct 12, 2007 12:25pm
The video below will offer analysis on the Dollar Index (DXC) and EUR/USD


http://www.aspentrading.com/video/oct12.swf
  • #54
  • Oct 12, 2007 1:50pm Oct 12, 2007 1:50pm
Quoting surfer76
My current view is that we are at the beginning of a big c wave down. I had trouble to find the end of the B wave(cause the Fib points were not exact) but my former PF of the Impulse waves gave me a reliable entry.
I favor the same count until B is taken out, then something's up, literally.

Just very suspicious behavior of the C if it is to be one - far too choppy for my taste so far...

1.4220-40 was indeed a nice place to short

Oh and really great to see you post here David

You've always got some of the more interesting stuff =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #55
  • Oct 12, 2007 1:59pm Oct 12, 2007 1:59pm
Posted this in StrangeGuy's thread also, but take what you can from this. Just a few lines to be aware of if ya wanna scalp.
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  • #56
  • Oct 13, 2007 9:41am Oct 13, 2007 9:41am
Here is a bullish Gartly forming on the 4 hr chart. This will precede the bearish butterfly I pointed out could form.

The news on friday was nothing more than intra-day market niose. After it was all said and done, the price structure remains in tact.

Dave
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  • #57
  • Oct 13, 2007 9:57am Oct 13, 2007 9:57am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Here is a bullish Gartly forming on the 4 hr chart. This will precede the bearish butterfly I pointed out could form.

The news on Friday was nothing more than intra-day market noise. After it was all said and done, the price structure remains intact.

Dave
Good stuff David - you are correct, short-term traders likely got spooked with Friday's action - noise, simply noise. I am bullish on EUR/USD above 1.4125
  • #58
  • Oct 13, 2007 11:27am Oct 13, 2007 11:27am
Quoting Dave Floyd
Good stuff David - you are correct, short-term traders likely got spooked with Friday's action - noise, simply noise. I am bullish on EUR/USD above 1.4125
Don't let a poke below 1.4125 fool ya. To complete the a,b=c,d it will need to go around 1.3960/30 range. Which is also were the 38.2 fibo will come in to play. Prime point for bullish reversal.

The way I see things:
It should poke lower, make 90% think its going down, then quickly reverse, taking out the majority's s/ls. Then should make some new highs to 1.4350/1.4400 range. Then when 90% think its continuing up, reversal time again.

Dave
  • #59
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:31pm Oct 15, 2007 5:31pm
I've been PM'd a few times, as to how I determine my entries/exits when I trade the smaller frames....I noticed that when I posted charts, I did not have my S/R's Levels drawn on my posted FF charts. I trade off of Oanda and have by lines on those charts. My apologies....

Here are my trades on the eurusd last night, and what it looked like....notice also why I chose NOT to take 2 trades, even on cross's of the rsi 8/8. This is why I do not take every cross. Hope this helps...
(Now if I were truly scalping for 5-7 pips....the cross's would have been taken....tough in a lower time frame entry... Whole different trading method )

Fxj

Note....I always have a trailing stop working....manual with Oanda, I don't trade these frames and walk away....
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #60
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:53am Oct 16, 2007 2:53am
Break of Pivot to 1st minor Resistance (Failed ) creating a nice tweezer...short from 1.4202....1st Target minor R at 4182 and 1st R at 4162.

NOTICE 8/8 cross's happen at key points....

Post for review......

fxj
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
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