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FOZZY Method CROSSES

  • #741
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:17pm Oct 9, 2007 3:17pm
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Some times I the 4 hour fozzy cross for lets say a buy signal and then look at the daily chart which is giving a conflicting signal i.e. the sell signal.

What would you guys recommend in this case? should one take the 4 hour cross if the daily chart or the hourly chart are giving different signals?

Thanks.


Quoting ShadyChars
Another awesome fozzy 4 hour short~
  • #742
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:14pm Oct 9, 2007 4:14pm
Quoting ricardo
Some times I the 4 hour fozzy cross for lets say a buy signal and then look at the daily chart which is giving a conflicting signal i.e. the sell signal.

What would you guys recommend in this case? should one take the 4 hour cross if the daily chart or the hourly chart are giving different signals?

Thanks.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21404
  • #743
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:02am Oct 10, 2007 10:02am
Outside from reading the entire 4 hour thread~ My simple answer would be to study the charts for many months and get comfortable with what they are telling you. For example, if a pair is in a strong trend it would be wiser to trade in the direction of the trend.

Philmcgrew, posted this statement recently-

I buy dips on uptrends, sell peaks on downtrends, trade tops and bottoms in choppy markets, and trade breakouts in flat ones

Now go read the Fozzy threads

Quoting ricardo
Some times I the 4 hour fozzy cross for lets say a buy signal and then look at the daily chart which is giving a conflicting signal i.e. the sell signal.

What would you guys recommend in this case? should one take the 4 hour cross if the daily chart or the hourly chart are giving different signals?

Thanks.
  • #744
  • Edited Oct 11, 2007 7:48pm Oct 10, 2007 10:58pm | Edited Oct 11, 2007 7:48pm
In my quest to be a longer term trader, I have chosen to take positions in pairs that I do not day trade or scalp.
So Far, I have been in ( for myself ) long term trades in the eur/gbp and the eur/chf.
Posting The eur/chf for review....1st, I noticed a "possible" Pin Bar on this pair than waited for an 8/8 cross...the cross came a few days later, yet crossed under rsi 50. So I waited to see if this was a correction..., I kept the pair on my radar screen, studied the fundies a bit, waited....and than I noticed that a "possible" channel was being formed. I placed an equidistance channel on the info I had available at the time....rec'd a cross above rsi50 close to the bottom of the channel. Entered a Buy Limit at the 8ema for trade number 1. Trades 2 and 3 buy orders where placed the same, at the 8ema...after positive crosses. Trailing stops moved accordingly ( as shown ) after the 5pmNY close.
I have begun to notice "possible divergence" on the cci, and the rsi is +80....this has caused me to tighten my trailing stop this evening to lock in some nice profits on all three trades, instead of using the channel bottom/21ema as a TS.
I know for many....1 month may not seem like a LONG TERM trade.....Yet for myself....it seems like a year!
Unlike a usd/jpy trade I had on several months back....I have not adjusted position sizes, only my STOPS....and I have avg'd up into the trade.

If difficult to see:
Trade 1 was entered 1.6430
Trade 2 was entered 1.6534
Trade 3 was entered 1.6643
Current trailing stop for all 3 trades is set at 1.6706 as of posting. UPDATE: Trailing Stop Moved To 1.6726 @ 0945 am 10/11/07 -
2nd update....moving stop very tight to 3ema at 1.6761 as of 845pm edt 10/11/07, High bounced off of channel top.

Posting Charts for review...
Fxj

FYI...a few trailing stops were deleted off the chart, as the information became to cluttered.
The eur/gbp trade is still in play, with a very tight Trailing stop due to an 8/8 cross...only 2 of the 3 lots remain ( the eur/gbp trade was not avg'd into ) UPDATE: eur/gbp Trailing stop triggered overnight @ .6944
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #745
  • Oct 11, 2007 1:01pm Oct 11, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting ricardo
Some times I the 4 hour fozzy cross for lets say a buy signal and then look at the daily chart which is giving a conflicting signal i.e. the sell signal.

What would you guys recommend in this case? should one take the 4 hour cross if the daily chart or the hourly chart are giving different signals?

Thanks.

Hi Ricardo.

I will see if I can add to the already good information that has been given here. When we look to take a trade on any TF we must take one large factor into account;

and that is:
The trend on a weekly is more significant than the daily
The trend on a daily is more significant than the 4H
The trend on the 4H is more significant than the 1H
Etc...

So what this means to you and this is how I do things; pick a Tf to trade. If you are more apt to trade the 4H charts then trade the 4H charts. Use the Daily and Weekly charts to gain insight to areas of S/R, Trend, Possible divergence etc. But make your trade decisions based on the 4H chart. Additionally it would behoove you to take signals in the direction of the prevailing trend. And be cautious when going against it.

Remember a 4H chart is going to show intraday (sort of) trends that are occuring on a daily and weekly chart. So yes you will get conflicting signals when looking at the Fozzy or any other method/indicator. Use the higher TF's to gain insight but make your decisions on entering and exiting based on your chosen TF. i.e. 4H charts.

Hope this helps,

Steve
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #746
  • Oct 11, 2007 2:27pm Oct 11, 2007 2:27pm
Trader V...

Very good advice about the time frames and being aware of the higher trends!!

Posting a chart of the eurusd 15 minute trades I made last night.

Trade #1 was taken on a cross of the 8/8 from very OS levels....YET, the higher frames....1 hr and 4 hour were UP. Even an old dog like myself can forget to check the higher frames....which is exactly what I did!! It cost me 15 pips.

So very timely info as a reminder....and yes....it matters not the method used. Thx!

Now, as a disclaimer for myself....I trade both ways, yet was not cautious of the higher trends....had I been, my Target would have been a bit more reserved...maybe 10-15 pips vs. 30.

Trade #2 was taken with the knowledge...Though I jumped on a divergence and a possible restest of the price break/resistence out from 1.4171.


AND WOULDN"T YA KNOW IT.....as I was getting this chart together, thinking it to be a slow afternoon......look what has just happened at the right of this chart!!!!!!!!:surprised

Fxj
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #747
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:18pm Oct 11, 2007 6:18pm
Quoting FxJarhead
Trader V...

Very good advice about the time frames and being aware of the higher trends!!

Posting a chart of the eurusd 15 minute trades I made last night.

Trade #1 was taken on a cross of the 8/8 from very OS levels....YET, the higher frames....1 hr and 4 hour were UP. Even an old dog like myself can forget to check the higher frames....which is exactly what I did!! It cost me 15 pips.

So very timely info as a reminder....and yes....it matters not the method used. Thx!

Now, as a disclaimer for myself....I trade both ways, yet was not cautious of the higher trends....had I been, my Target would have been a bit more reserved...maybe 10-15 pips vs. 30.

Trade #2 was taken with the knowledge...Though I jumped on a divergence and a possible restest of the price break/resistence out from 1.4171.


AND WOULDN"T YA KNOW IT.....as I was getting this chart together, thinking it to be a slow afternoon......look what has just happened at the right of this chart!!!!!!!!:surprised

Fxj

Hey man nice trading today. I don't normally trade smaller time frames due to my schedule but I wanted to point out what I saw with this trade and possible reasons for not taking that initial short position. Please don't take this as a criticism. I am just sharing my views so togehter not only will we become better traders but we may help those who read this as well.

Ok so on my chart I used the same TF you have of 15M so we are looking at the same stuff. On the far left you will se an area of previous resistance which was broken by the move whee you entered. On that bearish bar that you took your trade on I would have ben hesistant trading into what could now become support.

Also looking down to CCI (I use 21) there is some notable divergence which indicates there may be a short afterall. Which is why I would not have taken that cross back up on the RSI indicated by the arrow.

When this kind of thing happens A cross of RSI in a specific direction I look for a price action setup for additional timing and point of entry. I rarely enter at the open of the next bar or during a current bar. I prefer to set a buffer of a few pips below or above the bar that is giving me the signal. So in this case where you entered your short I would have placed a Sell Stop a few pips below that bar indicated by the arrow. One other thing to note is that bar had a weak closing. In other words it did not close near the btoom of that range which also takes away from the faith I would have in the short. But my position of a Sell Stop would have kept me out of the trade.

I hope this comes across clearly sometimes I ramble a bit and things get jumbled.

Steve
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Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #748
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:39pm Oct 11, 2007 6:39pm
I took a daily fozzy long on Eur Usd and a short on GY. Anybody here with me?

I think at least for the Euro, the uptrend resume is obvious, since it went down to 38% of the last upward move, then reversed nicely 3 days ago. Thanx to Jacko and 4H Fozzy, I managed to squeeze this reversal long time before the daily fozzy cross, which proves again the importance of Fozzy 4H strategy. thanx again BB.

About the GY short, Im not so sure, it might be a fake move down or just a retracement to 89 sma and not a real downtrend resume, but I will go with it.
As long as RSI 8 stays above the 60 level on Daily, I assume the trend is up.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #749
  • Oct 11, 2007 7:26pm Oct 11, 2007 7:26pm
Quoting gagiul
I took a daily fozzy long on Eur Usd and a short on GY. Anybody here with me?

I think at least for the Euro, the uptrend resume is obvious, since it went down to 38% of the last upward move, then reversed nicely 3 days ago. Thanx to Jacko and 4H Fozzy, I managed to squeeze this reversal long time before the daily fozzy cross, which proves again the importance of Fozzy 4H strategy. thanx again BB.

About the GY short, Im not so sure, it might be a fake move down or just a retracement to 89 sma and not a real downtrend resume, but I will go with it.
As long as RSI 8 stays above the 60 level on Daily, I assume the trend is up.

Believe it or not I am with you. I got in on the Euro a little later than you id though. I use the daily charts quite a bit and will sometimes zoom into the 4H for additional timing. Now that being said I still would have entered in the same price zone that I did even if I were on a 4H based on areas of S/R.Currently at +42 and closed partial profit moving syop to +5.

as for the GY This is a tricky bugger since we are in a long term up trend. We hit a double top on the monthly and possibly forming a H&S pattern indicating a reversal. Looking at the weekly it seems as if we may have completed the pull back and are headed north again. If in fact this is the start of a reversal I am not jumping rith in. I have a Sell Stop placed below the most recent support at 236.38. Now mind you even if I get entered in this trade I will be watching it closely because as we all know S/R is a ZONE not a specific price. That being said it may have a hard time breaking through the 234.64 area.

I ave seen Jacko mentioned a few times, what exactly is this method and where can I read about it?

Good trades to all and to all a good night!

Steve
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #750
  • Edited Oct 12, 2007 7:21am Oct 11, 2007 7:34pm | Edited Oct 12, 2007 7:21am
Quoting indreamer
Would like to see if there is an interest in a daily posting of Fozzy Crosses each evening. I would be glad to help if there is any interest.....Or maybe there is already one.



"Living the dream"
Indreamer
My apologies indreamer, I lost focus of your thread....posting a cross for review.... Not a "classic" cross with a Pin Bar....tread lightly.

Fxj

UPDATE ( 10/12/07 @ 820am ) - Sell Limit Filled Overnight 1.1864...Price currently 1.1858, stop moved to B/E going into news.
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Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #751
  • Edited 7:50pm Oct 11, 2007 7:45pm | Edited 7:50pm
Hey Trader V..

I hear you. I had R1 as 1.4185....seemed it held when I got the 8/8 cross from OS levels....yet if I looked at the higher charts, the trend was really strong.

Most times the best trades like that one come with divergence, which happened on my trade #2 and also at R2 which I had around 1.4214....though I had to have a nap for the bounce back off R1.

No worries on Rambling....I can ramble with the best of 'em!!

Fxj
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #752
  • Oct 11, 2007 9:31pm Oct 11, 2007 9:31pm
Look outfor the Aussie Cad looks like it may make a run back down.
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #753
  • Oct 17, 2007 9:03am Oct 17, 2007 9:03am
I started playing with the Price Action at the advice of BB ( to whom I thank a lot) and recently I made some great trades using PBs, and other reversal candles at Fibonacci levels, and Fozzy crosses. For example today we had great reversal signals for AU, NU, GY and EY, Usd Cad.

I will post here the setup for Usd Cad, which I consider the best looking one. Entered short at 0.9800.
Attached Image
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #754
  • Oct 17, 2007 12:14pm Oct 17, 2007 12:14pm
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
A quick basic questiion - In the MA for Fozzy method should it be EMA or just a basic MA ?

Also can some one explain how to combine CCI with the fozzy cross ? I see them in the charts you all post but not sure how to combine it as a filter for the cross.

Thanks a lot.
  • #755
  • Nov 1, 2007 8:31pm Nov 1, 2007 8:31pm
Hi, first I want to thank anyone in advance for their comments...
OK, PA with Fozzy cross. DBHLC (not perfect though, 7 pips difference). I'm thinking of selling if it retraces 50% of the DBHLC around .9220 with stop above 61.8% around .9265 and target the 50% retracement and also previous high at .9050. It might never get there but that's how much risk I'm willing to take on a trade against the trend. This is demo only. Sebastien
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  • #756
  • Nov 2, 2007 7:42am Nov 2, 2007 7:42am
Quoting OGW
Hi, first I want to thank anyone in advance for their comments...
OK, PA with Fozzy cross. DBHLC (not perfect though, 7 pips difference). I'm thinking of selling if it retraces 50% of the DBHLC around .9220 with stop above 61.8% around .9265 and target the 50% retracement and also previous high at .9050. It might never get there but that's how much risk I'm willing to take on a trade against the trend. This is demo only. Sebastien
My application of PA in this kind of situation is to sell a break of the low of the previous large Bearish candle (.9106). I'm looking to sell just below .9100.
  • #757
  • Nov 2, 2007 9:15am Nov 2, 2007 9:15am
Yes sure, many will wait for a break of the low but I have read that Jim also wait for a retracement, that way you sometimes miss the boat but on such large bar you can get in with a smaller stop but hey I'm no expert, have just been reading and practicing the suff taught in the James 16 thread. If you play the break of the low, may I ask you where would you put your stop? Using the ATR20?
But more than anything, I want to take this occasion to thank you for your great post about Fozzy and price action. I've printed it and studied it a lot. Now, I do the same with nice results so far (on demo!).
Sebastien
  • #758
  • Nov 2, 2007 9:24am Nov 2, 2007 9:24am
Quoting OGW
Yes sure, many will wait for a break of the low but I have read that Jim also wait for a retracement, that way you sometimes miss the boat but on such large bar you can get in with a smaller stop but hey I'm no expert, have just been reading and practicing the suff taught in the James 16 thread. If you play the break of the low, may I ask you where would you put your stop? Using the ATR20?
But more than anything, I want to take this occasion to thank you for your great post about Fozzy and price action. I've printed it and studied it a lot. Now, I do the same with nice results so far (on demo!).
Sebastien
Thanks for the compliment! If I enter below .9100, I will use a rather tight stop; .7 x ATR (20) = 85 pips. First T/P will be .8900. Also, take a look at the Weekly chart........
  • #759
  • Nov 2, 2007 9:43am Nov 2, 2007 9:43am
Wow! We could be in for a major correction if not some kind of reversal... You know, I've failed so many times taking counter-trend trades that I aim at very conservative targets when I still find the courage to do it. So I've had already close half for 70 pips (70 X ATR 20 and more than my stop) and move stop to b/e. But I will definitly leave the rest running if this potential pin happens and breaks! Thanks again. Sebastien
  • #760
  • Nov 3, 2007 2:33pm Nov 3, 2007 2:33pm
I've been following this thread with great interest.
I took my first trades on Monday (last) 10/29/07 with GBP/USD.
3 positions with escalating TP. I'm still in on the final position.
TP both the other two.

My goodness!! I'm sold!

Anyway... I read in here somewhere that position should be initiated AFTER the 8/8 cross. But, if using Bollinger Band on RSI, position should be initiated if 8/8 cross is in either the above MA (for short) or the below MA (for long) to filter further false signals.

Can anyone please tell me if I have this correct....or if I have the initiate signal backwards?

This is a great forum. Great, great posts! The contributors make this site what it is. I'm glad & thankful to be a part of it. Thanks for including me.

Peter O.
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