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  • #81
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:25am Oct 11, 2007 6:25am
with all these fib levels, how do u determine which one is the potential target to take profits? thanks for taking time and explaining your method.
Quoting Bobokus
Last night was interesting..seems the news has price turned again and we are headed short again,breaking 340 here will be my confirmation.My buy stop i had set last night got picked up but turned against it pretty quick by the looks of it...lost 20pips from it. Doesnt matter now I reversed my position now and watching to see if 2.0340 breaks.
  • #82
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:37am Oct 11, 2007 6:37am
Quoting gtketum
with all these fib levels, how do u determine which one is the potential target to take profits? thanks for taking time and explaining your method.
For the most part the fibs drawn off the daily timeframe and the intermediate are what i use as a long term view as where hte market is heading.The range set of fibs i use to detirmine if we are still in a ranging period.The intraday and the swing fibs i use the extentions from those as current targets,In a ranging condition like this I am more apt to use the swing fib extentions for targets.Once we establish another trending move I will use the Intraday fib extentions as targets.
  • #83
  • Oct 11, 2007 6:41am Oct 11, 2007 6:41am
Here is an example of me watching the swing extentions to get me out...hoping for 297 but may have to settle if we stall out here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #84
  • Oct 11, 2007 8:58am Oct 11, 2007 8:58am
Quoting Bobokus
Doesnt matter now I reversed my position now and watching to see if 2.0340 breaks.
For the fib break entry do you look for the first penetration breach or does it have to close/open outside the level? Or does the rule vary depending on the time frame of the fibs being broken? Yesterday we wanted a trend line full break with a close/open rather than penetration so I thought I'd compare to the fib. If discretion is involved in waiting for a close vs just penetration, how do we make the call?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #85
  • Oct 11, 2007 9:00am Oct 11, 2007 9:00am
Quoting Bobokus
My buy stop i had set last night got picked up but turned against it pretty quick by the looks of it...lost 20pips from it.
So you initially went long, on what candle/break point?
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #86
  • Oct 11, 2007 9:19am Oct 11, 2007 9:19am
Quoting Thexder
So you initially went long, on what candle/break point?
On this instance I entered on the 1st candle to open beyong the Intraday long fib..it was short lived though the trendline held again and price began to plummet.I was counting on the trendline breaking on the second attempt but it held again and i let it run against me for about 20 pips and closed the long, I reversed my position then ,since we moved back into the trading zone...counting on it to test the lower end or the Intraday short fib, it did i also added another short position at that point counting on the Intraday short fib to give way but it held and left a reversal candle so i had to close all 3 shorts at that point and played the reversal back to the Intraday long fib where i have shorted the failure there again counting on the Intraday short fib to give way again.
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  • #87
  • Oct 11, 2007 10:36am Oct 11, 2007 10:36am
Based on observing the activity today and last night, it looks like the price followed this routine:

Once London is approaching (I consider anytime after 1am ET based on past experience because things start happening even if they reverse at 3am ET), use the swing zone to trap price and prepare for any possible trades relative to the intraday trade zone.

After 1am ET, the swing zone's short side was sitting near the intraday long side, so a break short out of the swing would trap price in the intraday zone, probably a good entry and a possible target at the bottom end of the intraday zone (almost made it, could have scaled out at the 0.5 level).

Things reversed at 3am ET (something commonly expected based on observation over time) and this time, redrawing the swing zone shows the long side of the swing zone is aligned with the long of the intraday zone, providing a good possible break out of both zones at once, but the trendline above this area caused resistance. Could have still made a fast short term 10 pip or so gain if scaling out that way. Some people scale out heavy at 10 pips regardless of anything else and only leave a small portion to ride out any successful breaks.

When the failed trend line break caused the reversal on the 5am ET candle and the new swing was drawn, the swing and intraday trade zones were aligned almost the same as the last swing, so a short into the two zones would probably be a strong short to try reaching the bottom of the intraday zone, which it did on the 8am ET candle.

From here, price would have temporarily gone short of the whole intraday zone, possibly leading to a continuation down past the intraday retracement, so one may try to anticipate that, or others may consider that price might bounce again within the intraday zone back to the other top end of the zone and go long. To help decide, I notice sometimes around 9:30 to 10am ET, it is a deciding point for this very case. If I look for other clues I may eventually (by 10am) decide that price is going to stay in the intraday zone and probably bounce back toward the top of the zone. This can be seen by the reversal candle of 9am ET, looks like it had a long tail and wanted to reverse, plus looking down at a 5min chart, you may use some discretion, maybe some other indicators/moving averages or looking at the price itself for a feel, it may support a secure probability of a reversal combined with the other issues (9am candle long tail, time of day, intraday zone proximity). That one is a 50/50 call on what may happen. Maybe straddle it or stay out.

After that point in the day I'd probably just let whatever happens, happen, if I'm in a trade, monitor it to it's end, if not, stay out for the day.

That's how I saw this session, but the next time I may be totally off (I don't know what to expect if we break the range zone, for instance). I hope I can learn to deal with all these scenarios eventually. I think I'm doing ok with "following the retracement from the previous day's range" and working with the price action...but once it breaks out of that previous day range, I'm ready to learn again.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #88
  • Oct 11, 2007 10:43am Oct 11, 2007 10:43am
Quoting Thexder
Based on observing the activity today and last night, it looks like the price followed this routine:

Once London is approaching (I consider anytime after 1am ET based on past experience because things start happening even if they reverse at 3am ET), use the swing zone to trap price and prepare for any possible trades relative to the intraday trade zone.

After 1am ET, the swing zone's short side was sitting near the intraday long side, so a break short out of the swing would trap price in the intraday zone, probably a good entry and a possible target at the bottom end of the intraday zone (almost made it, could have scaled out at the 0.5 level).

Things reversed at 3am ET (something commonly expected based on observation over time) and this time, redrawing the swing zone shows the long side of the swing zone is aligned with the long of the intraday zone, providing a good possible break out of both zones at once, but the trendline above this area caused resistance. Could have still made a fast short term 10 pip or so gain if scaling out that way. Some people scale out heavy at 10 pips regardless of anything else and only leave a small portion to ride out any successful breaks.

When the failed trend line break caused the reversal on the 5am ET candle and the new swing was drawn, the swing and intraday trade zones were aligned almost the same as the last swing, so a short into the two zones would probably be a strong short to try reaching the bottom of the intraday zone, which it did on the 8am ET candle.

From here, price would have temporarily gone short of the whole intraday zone, possibly leading to a continuation down past the intraday retracement, so one may try to anticipate that, or others may consider that price might bounce again within the intraday zone back to the other top end of the zone and go long. To help decide, I notice sometimes around 9:30 to 10am ET, it is a deciding point for this very case. If I look for other clues I may eventually (by 10am) decide that price is going to stay in the intraday zone and probably bounce back toward the top of the zone. This can be seen by the reversal candle of 9am ET, looks like it had a long tail and wanted to reverse, plus looking down at a 5min chart, you may use some discretion, maybe some other indicators/moving averages or looking at the price itself for a feel, it may support a secure probability of a reversal combined with the other issues (9am candle long tail, time of day, intraday zone proximity). That one is a 50/50 call on what may happen. Maybe straddle it or stay out.

After that point in the day I'd probably just let whatever happens, happen, if I'm in a trade, monitor it to it's end, if not, stay out for the day.

That's how I saw this session, but the next time I may be totally off (I don't know what to expect if we break the range zone, for instance). I hope I can learn to deal with all these scenarios eventually. I think I'm doing ok with "following the retracement from the previous day's range" and working with the price action...but once it breaks out of that previous day range, I'm ready to learn again.

Very Impressive I coundt have said it any better myself, your catching on very quickly...some people have a natural knack for it some dont and if you can read that much from todays action....you will be trading soon.
  • #89
  • Oct 11, 2007 1:09pm Oct 11, 2007 1:09pm
Hi Bo,

Just wondering why you have the intraday fib pulled from high of Oct 10 to the low of Oct 9 instead of just the high and low of Oct 10 (previous day)? This is the fib you use to establish the trade zone for each day, correct?
  • #90
  • Oct 11, 2007 1:43pm Oct 11, 2007 1:43pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Bo,

Just wondering why you have the intraday fib pulled from high of Oct 10 to the low of Oct 9 instead of just the high and low of Oct 10 (previous day)? This is the fib you use to establish the trade zone for each day, correct?
Maily because there really wasnt much of a retracement during that time period only a few consolidation periods..today i am treating differently because we did get several retracements...for tonight it looks as i type this I will be pulling my Intraday off today only...may even pull the range fib up as well.
  • #91
  • Oct 11, 2007 5:12pm Oct 11, 2007 5:12pm
Ive readjusted my fibs to get everything reset now to look for the next setup.I have pulled the Range fib up now to the high of Wednesday to the low of Tuesday. The Intraday fib across the high and low of Today, Giving me a trading zone of 2.0378/2.0358. I would like to see a down trend start but the norm here lately seems to be up for 2 days then down for 2 days..we'll see if this continues.The chop today shows me alot of indecision still on a direction.Its much harder to try and make a projection during these ranging periods but we'll manage.Ideal situation would be a small rally in price now that falls short somewhere aound our pivot at 2.0365, and take the break out of 2.0358. If we get a candle close above 2.0378 all bets are off and the ranging will continue yet another day.Good thing is the range is pretty wide giving us some room to make a few pips. There can be alot of insanity on Fridays so I hope to be out of a trade by mid morning if we get one at all.

Long on a break of 2.0378
Targeting 2.0450/2.0475
---------------------------------
Short on a failure at 2.0365
Targeting 2.0260/2.0240

On the short if price cannot rally I'll have to go with the break of the low and let price action and time of day detirmine the entry point as well as the exit....by following the market with the swing fib.
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  • #92
  • Oct 11, 2007 5:36pm Oct 11, 2007 5:36pm
Hi Bobokus
Thanks again.
I am studying and learning. It helps so much to have the permanent written record and take one post at a time with the chart until I understand each detail.
Please make Skunny stay away with those gann lines. I don't want to have to learn them too!
Just kidding...HELLO SKUNNY!!!
Best of trading to you both.
I live at ORI.
  • #93
  • Oct 11, 2007 5:47pm Oct 11, 2007 5:47pm
Quoting TEugene
Hi Bobokus
Thanks again.
I am studying and learning. It helps so much to have the permanent written record and take one post at a time with the chart until I understand each detail.
Please make Skunny stay away with those gann lines. I don't want to have to learn them too!
Just kidding...HELLO SKUNNY!!!
Best of trading to you both.
I live at ORI.
Thanks TEugene but thanks are really not necessary.
  • #94
  • Oct 11, 2007 7:36pm Oct 11, 2007 7:36pm
Very interesting Bo. Great thread and I think people can improve any method by learning Fibonacci.

Good Luck

PT
Zone Breakout Method
  • #95
  • Oct 11, 2007 7:41pm Oct 11, 2007 7:41pm
Quoting PowerTrader
Very interesting Bo. Great thread and I think people can improve any method by learning Fibonacci.

Good Luck

PT
We'll thank you PowerTrader, and yes Fibonacci is the key in my opinion.
  • #96
  • Edited 11:55pm Oct 11, 2007 11:10pm | Edited 11:55pm
At 2am ET I'm seeing a confirmation of a short that could be something, the last swing short has been breached as well as the low of yesterday, and it so far is nudging on south. It's at least good for those first 10 pips, if not 30.

I should be putting money on this. But you know how that works out, it would reverse on me instantly.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #97
  • Oct 12, 2007 4:34am Oct 12, 2007 4:34am
Looks as if our targets of 260/240 were dead on...too bad i slept through it. LOL there will always be another day though.
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  • #98
  • Oct 12, 2007 4:38am Oct 12, 2007 4:38am
Quoting Thexder
At 2am ET I'm seeing a confirmation of a short that could be something, the last swing short has been breached as well as the low of yesterday, and it so far is nudging on south. It's at least good for those first 10 pips, if not 30.

I should be putting money on this. But you know how that works out, it would reverse on me instantly.

Yep, you are seeing the entry correct... the break of the low was all the market was offering so we have to take it when it does..there were 40-50 pips there, which is more than enough for 1 days take..you could call it a day now and go do something else !
  • #99
  • Oct 12, 2007 5:11am Oct 12, 2007 5:11am
From the Daily you can see we need a daily close below this level 2.0259 before we can go any farther down..so we may not get that.This level has been tested already this morning and to this point has held.If it does hold today we should go back up again.
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  • #100
  • Oct 12, 2007 6:02am Oct 12, 2007 6:02am
Yep..Goin up at least for the short term.Odd how it goes in the opposite direction of the news huh! Support and Resistance either holds or it doest...that is what you trade.Its not what you hear but what you see.
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