This pin unfortunately didn't work.
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- #6,882
- Edited 8:19am Oct 10, 2007 7:54am | Edited 8:19am
To be honest, taking an entry that "late" to me would have felt like buying a top.
And I spent a LOT of my lost money in my beginning time doing just that.
So mostly cured of that...I shy away from it now. Others might argue differently and yes, there ARE exceptions for this, too(strong trending EURUSD BUB + IB daily combos, okay, one might talk me into that for example if there's also another reason coming into it), but to me it always induces "fear of exhaustion close by" due to a late entry, feels like chasing, etc...
Anyhow.
Just wanted to throw up the 4h. Most arrows are simply to illustrate s/r touches, some are PBs / 2 bar reversals / 2 bar PBs.
Just felt left out with everyone posting charts :o
(there's also a trendline in there, but I wanted to stick to s/r)
Thanks for posting that..........I am now kicking myself big time........having read your post and knowing all too well you are so right I have gone and chased a trade after it has happened......
On this pair I should have been more prepared and knowing the volatility this pair have I should have jumped in on the pull back rather than the break to give myself some more room to manoeuvre......
I think it comes down to waiting for the good setups to come along when they do and I have slightly missed it jumping in is a big no no.......I have learned this the hard way, as with yourself......thanks
- #6,888
- Oct 10, 2007 8:22am Oct 10, 2007 8:22am
jayzee, I don't have FXDD, but not on my feed.
Also, after such an extreme run up over the last several hours, I wouldn't be looking for longs at this point... Wait for a good retrace, and THEN look for your PA. Remember that PA is nothing out of context of a good location, which, IMO, this is not. In fact, connect a trendline from the most recent four highs on your 1H chart. Still want to go long here? Doubt it...
nope, i am going short for my last post.
i mean, we short when it break the double low?
- #6,889
- Oct 10, 2007 8:39am Oct 10, 2007 8:39am
Have you jumped into the cable pin also ????
I have to admit missed this one completly......however there is quite a bit of resistance up ahead to get through.....!!
- #6,890
- Oct 10, 2007 8:47am Oct 10, 2007 8:47am
nope, i am going short for my last post.
i mean, we short when it break the double low?
- #6,892
- Oct 10, 2007 8:52am Oct 10, 2007 8:52am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,442 Posts
I saw this pin yesterday--it's a terrible one. By itself, it's beautiful--but look at the location--all it is, really, is a run from the top of the wedge to the bottom, and back up, which is what price has done over and over the last 7 days (before today, when I broke out to the upside).
- #6,895
- Oct 10, 2007 11:41am Oct 10, 2007 11:41am
- Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Charts + PA > * | 3,251 Posts
The reason why so many people think picking tops and bottoms is a sure way to lose is because its human nature to pull your hand back from a hot stove. It can take many failed attempts to pick a top or a bottom and most people will stop trying after being "burnt" a number of times. Repeated losses can no longer be tolerated by their pain (equity) and morale (psychological) threshold. The top/bottom usually occurs just when most people give up trying to pick it. Generally though, if you commit, it is a lucrative practice in my opinion.
If you spend 10 tries at 10% risk going against the trend, trying to catch the reversal - what are you going to reverse it with if it takes 11 tries?
Okay, just pulling your leg given your risk profile, but even at 1% - you have several tries, if it is a strong, long lasting trend perhaps far more than anyone would care to admit. You most likely can't salvage all at +0, you will most likely take several hits.
If however you wait for a retrace + reversal back into the main trend and go with it, with a much higher likelyhood of success due to being WITH the trend, and only take the loss when the trend changes direction once, or maybe twice, before it changes / after it changes. isn't this easily more profitable, simpler and straight forward?
Of course it doesn't get as much "bragging rights" as in having been in "THE trade that stemmed the tide, yeehah!"...but for me, pondering these scenarios, I'd rather have the bigger account than the bigger boasting power =)
This is all macro / simplified, there's a whole different microcosm inside of moves inside of moves inside of moves, but just going from a generalized thought here..
Trust price. Know yourself.
- #6,896
- Oct 10, 2007 1:15pm Oct 10, 2007 1:15pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
Anyone going long on the pin on GBP_JPY kind of missed the boat a little as it has moved past the break but I think we are in for a move on the up.....any thought's people.....???
Stay Lucky Mimas
- #6,897
- Oct 10, 2007 1:16pm Oct 10, 2007 1:16pm
- | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: POP FIAT FASCISM | 1,106 Posts
- #6,898
- Oct 10, 2007 1:25pm Oct 10, 2007 1:25pm
I've been in this for a while now, and Price has broken thro' MY Weekly PPZ.
Knowing that this pair will usually run out of steam sometime I've decided to wait before adding in any more trades. I'm waiting to see how this 4hr bar finishes. If it closes well above the PPZ, I'll stick a Fib on this run and add a small position on the 38 retracement. If it closes with any sign of weakness, I may consider putting a small Buy Limit order around the PPZ which should become Support (239.60 area).
This is not a Trade Recommendation, just my thoughts. But I know you're more sensible than to take my advice
