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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,641
  • Oct 7, 2007 4:19pm Oct 7, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting Wolf.
These are some levels and possibilities that I see. 240 is the level I see that has to be broken for a move north.

Would be nice to go straight up to 260 from here but of course it could plummet . My bias is still long overall.

Time will tell.
Excuse me Wolf, but I think that once the 50% Fibonacci on your chart was penetrated and confirmed broken, there is nothing to stop the pair from rising towards the previous top, or let's say very near to it.

The magnitude and the speed of the previous correction (In my opinion) dicatates that the 50% at around 235.00 was the strongest barrier, other levels are just small and weak resistances.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #13,642
  • Oct 7, 2007 4:33pm Oct 7, 2007 4:33pm
Quoting narafa
Excuse me Wolf, but I think that once the 50% Fibonacci on your chart was penetrated and confirmed broken, there is nothing to stop the pair from rising towards the previous top, or let's say very near to it.

The magnitude and the speed of the previous correction (In my opinion) dicatates that the 50% at around 235.00 was the strongest barrier, other levels are just small and weak resistances.


Thanks,

Nader
Hi Nader... I Do tend to agree with that analysis I know the 50% is very important to GJ and you are most probably correct (I hope so because I'm long lol) and we have some good momentum. I still think there is resistance at 240 looking at the chart from my novice perspective. When I look at a bare chart I just see resistance there.

Thanks for the input.

Chris.
  • #13,643
  • Oct 7, 2007 4:36pm Oct 7, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Nader... I Do tend to agree with that analysis I know the 50% is very important to GJ and you are most probably correct (I hope so because I'm long lol) and we have some good momentum. I still think there is resistance at 240 looking at the chart from my novice perpective. When I look at a bare chart I just see resistance there.

Thanks for the input.

Chris.
Anytime and wish you a profitable trade.


Thanks,

Nader
  • #13,644
  • Oct 7, 2007 5:53pm Oct 7, 2007 5:53pm
Quoting Zoran
Yes, the B point is a bit high so I'm not sure what pattern that should represent. The highest B point I know of lives in the Gartley at 78.6. It will be interesting to see what else it picks up so keep them coming
Sorry, I need to correct myself here. It's the butterfly that has the B point at 78.6. The garley is at 61.8.
  • #13,645
  • Oct 7, 2007 6:46pm Oct 7, 2007 6:46pm
Let's not forget the fact that the Gbp is breaking daily trendlines to the upside and in itself looks like a promising long trade over the dollar. Given the fact that it looks like the dollar is showing potential significant gains over the yen, then the obvious trade would be the Gbp/JPY. That is how I substantiate my long term trade in this pair. Or, at least, my trade in this pair.

During the previous swing high in the Gbp/Jpy you could have had a sell stop in place during every minor correction that this pair experienced and not be stopped out. That is incredible momentum. Not to mention the fact that once your stop was activated, if it was a sell stop, you would have either secured 90% of your gains, or, if your stop was a little bit more that your long position, you would have made a lot of money to the downside. Does anyone hedge quite a bit like I do? I love to hedge.
  • #13,646
  • Edited 1:17am Oct 8, 2007 1:03am | Edited 1:17am
Great to see some interesting analysis coming into the thread, I´m busy for today, so will just post the link to Traex´s post on his count for GJ - he is one of the best EW traders in FF and consistantly makes good money.

Here´s to a good week....

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1191752180

"Well, well, GBP/JPY continues its uptrend so far, reaching important resistant at 241.40-50 (early 2007's high and the left shoulder in weekly chart). Passing through here would strengthen GBP/JPY's carry trade continuation. Again, I guess this monster would depend most on USD/JPY's upwards movement."

Edit: In the last two weeks, cable has rallied over 615 pips and this has IMO been the main support for GJ (UJ only managed 325 pips in the same period).
Cable is currently at its 78.6% fibbo on its daily and UJ not yet at its 50% (117.85) on its daily.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,647
  • Oct 9, 2007 2:53am Oct 9, 2007 2:53am
Good Morning.

Charts from last night.
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  • #13,648
  • Edited 3:56am Oct 9, 2007 3:04am | Edited 3:56am
Todays 15m chart.

Edit: Stop moved to +1

Edit: 09:53 Looking a bit dodgy here maybe I should have took some profit at the declining trend line also M2 at around 84 (ain't hindsight great), still in though this could turn around!

Edit: 09:55 just added here at 45
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  • #13,649
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:59am Oct 9, 2007 3:59am
Updated chart.
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  • #13,650
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:39am Oct 9, 2007 4:39am
Hi Wolf

Thanks for taking the time out to answer my question with supporting charts. I have been away for a few days and need to spend some time catching up on everything. I may have some more questions.

Thanks again
Cheers
  • #13,651
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:44am Oct 9, 2007 4:44am
Quoting PipNick
Hi Wolf

Thanks for taking the time out to answer my question with supporting charts. I have been away for a few days and need to spend some time catching up on everything. I may have some more questions.

Thanks again
Cheers
Hi PipNick,

Hope it helped.

Hasn't worked out this morning took +10 and -13 on my two trades this morning.

Taken another long here at the lower daily trend line but will cut it quickly if the line breaks and maybe look to short.

Zoran will be pleased if it does
  • #13,652
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:29am Oct 10, 2007 4:29am
Back on shore and playing catch up....clean entry this morning as price bounced off the area of the 200ema (green) and broke back up through the 34ema (agua) - Long at 238.96....taken partials for +52 and will take more for +100 as the momentum (snake) is falling as price is stalling around the Monthly R1.

I´m working on some longer TF analysis which I hope to post shortly - I ´m seeing the potential for a reversal during the next few days.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,653
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:05am Oct 10, 2007 5:05am
The lack of force in UJ in its rally from its August lows is notable in comparison with Cable - so far UJ has failed to get to its 50% retrace of the June to August sell off - also this week´s R1.

Yesterday was the 76th (Lucas) trading day since UJs high on JUne 22 and as such a "here something should happen day" - whether it is just the initial completion of a possible Bearish Butterfly has yet to be confirmed - but momentum is again falling. However, there is still the potential for a higher pattern completion around the 119 level, so we must be aware that so far, the up trend is still in force.

At present UJs effect on GJ is IMO neutral until it moves above Mondays high of 117.61 or under yesterdays low of 116.78
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,654
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:50am Oct 10, 2007 5:50am
Cable is currently more volatile than UJ and thus having more impact on GJ. Last week´s high of 2.0492 was above the 78.6% retrace of its fall from the July high to August low. The strong rally from yesterday afternoon has put on more than 200 pips and can easily get to the 2.0500 level - however, the Monthly M3 and Weekly R2 are both within 15 pips of the 500 level and should provide strong resistance, especially given the falling momentum on many time frames.

Daily time lines do not come in until next Tuesday +/- a day, so I do favour a higher high.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,655
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:52am Oct 10, 2007 5:52am
Whoops....here´s the chart....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,656
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:17am Oct 10, 2007 6:17am
This last rally from yesterday afternoon has put on 400 pips and so far stopped at the Weekly R1 - 240.35. It has also completed a good (IMO and subject to Zoran´s confirmation) Bearish Butterfly pattern and thus should fall. Lower momentum on several TFs supports this. However, Daily Time Lines give an HSSH day due on Saturday - so active from tomorrow till Tuesday - thus a higher high is still expected although this should not exceed the WR2 at 241.79.

So, despite the falling momentum and completed pattern, the trend is still up and should be respected.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,657
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:30am Oct 10, 2007 6:30am
great thread....

Breeze
  • #13,658
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:32am Oct 10, 2007 7:32am
Islander,

Nice trades as 'usual', nice charts and very nice analysis .

Haven't had time to post myself since yesterday hope too later today with some charts.

Longer time frame trend lines worked very well yesterday, one in particular I had removed from the last chart I posted to leave a clearer view became very good support. (should have left it there).

Cheers,
  • #13,659
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:01am Oct 10, 2007 10:01am
I knocked the bulls on the head with my wedge so lets see if it worked!

I'm expecting price to go back to 237 then one more bounce before a possible further (largish) fall to 235, 231 and maybe 221.
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  • #13,660
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:17am Oct 10, 2007 10:17am
Bounce off the daily pivot and might head thru r1 on the 30m chart
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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