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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,621
  • Oct 4, 2007 6:56pm Oct 4, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting fourxtrader
My homework is to study back through all of you posts and see what I can
learn. Any key areas of study you might suggest would be appreciated.
Perhaps you've given this info before... I'll look.

Dr. D.
Hi Doctor

From my point of view, the basics are the most important. I started on more advanced methods but I didn't really get it. Click on my name and check my favourite trading book. Someone once recommended that book to me and it helped me a great deal! I will now pass that information to you.

So now the advanced topics fit on top of that book as confirmation and it all slots in nicely. The basics are No.1 (especially on longer timeframes) then everything else just confirms....

Please let me know if you ever do finish reading that book.
  • #13,622
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:25am Oct 5, 2007 2:25am
Good morning....yesterday cable rallied 150 pips in the 6 hours from 3:30 edt - 30 mins after LO and in the same period GJ put on 155 pips, held back by UJs fall of 45 pips during the last half on the period.

Now we have cable just under its daily pivot - 2.0364 - and heading for its 61.8% support at 2.0336..... UJ has broken above its DP - 116.49 but turned back at M3 to re-break its pivot.

As its Freaky NFP Friday I think we will have whippy moves within yesterdays range until the data - a difficult day to trade when it will be best to lock in profits quickly - or stay out!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,623
  • Oct 5, 2007 2:58am Oct 5, 2007 2:58am
GBPJPY looks like its forming a top and would head further downwards imho.
  • #13,624
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:02am Oct 5, 2007 3:02am
Following Zoranīs excellent examples of harmonic patters, I have done some research and would like his opinion on this pattern generated by the Russian Zup indicator. I am wondering if it might be a variation on a bearish butterfly, but Iīm not certain if "B" is allowed be as high as 0.886 without negating the pattern.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,625
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:09am Oct 5, 2007 3:09am
Quoting Islander
Following Zoranīs excellent examples of harmonic patters, I have done some research and would like his opinion on this pattern generated by the Russian Zup indicator. I am wondering if it might be a variation on a bearish butterfly, but Iīm not certain if "B" is allowed be as high as 0.886 without negating the pattern.
Yes, the B point is a bit high so I'm not sure what pattern that should represent. The highest B point I know of lives in the Gartley at 78.6. It will be interesting to see what else it picks up so keep them coming
  • #13,626
  • Edited 5:54am Oct 5, 2007 3:35am | Edited 5:54am
Good morning,

NFP a double edged sword creates some nice market movement (sometimes!) but screws up some nice set ups like right now. There is a lovely set up to short here at 237 on any other day I would be short. Having said that had two good trades this morning 237.29 - 236.97 +31 236.87 - 237.07 +20 and have gone long from 237.03 TP 237.29.

Anyway my dog is asking for a walk and seeing as its a lovely crisp sunny morning here I will give in and take her for one. Back in an hour or so.

Edit: Stop moved to +1

Edit: TP hit +26
  • #13,627
  • Oct 5, 2007 5:28am Oct 5, 2007 5:28am
Quoting Wolf.
Good morning,

NFP a double edge sword creates some nice market movement (sometimes!) but screws up some nice set ups like right now. There is a lovely set up to short here at 237 on any other day I would be short. Having said that had two good trades this morning 237.29 - 236.97 +31 236.87 - 237.07 +20 and have gone long from 237.03 TP 237.29.

Anyway my dog is asking for a walk and seeing as its a lovely crisp sunny morning here I will give in and take her for one. Back in an hour or so.

Edit: Stop moved to +1

Edit: TP hit +26
Nice pips....from next week Iīm making a new rule for myself.....do NOT log onto the threads till 1 hour after LO - Iīm missing too many entries by being distracted!

Also, weīre recovering from a mini tornado here - 100+ winds in a 15 min storm that turned cars over, damaged buildings, felled trees, sunk boats etc
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,628
  • Edited 6:06am Oct 5, 2007 5:51am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting Islander
Nice pips....from next week Iīm making a new rule for myself.....do NOT log onto the threads till 1 hour after LO - Iīm missing too many entries by being distracted!

Also, weīre recovering from a mini tornado here - 100+ winds in a 15 min storm that turned cars over, damaged buildings, felled trees, sunk boats etc
Hi Islander,

Thanks I was lucky and caught the moves this morning, the dog stopped me giving it back lol, staying out until NFP now.

Seems a sensible rule I have the same problem, they are another double edged sword.

Where in the world are you, I would hazard a guess on an island and on or about GMT. Haven't seen the news this morning maybe that would have given me a clue.

I hope everyone is ok and its only property damage.
  • #13,629
  • Oct 5, 2007 6:17am Oct 5, 2007 6:17am
Hi Wolf

Would you mind posting your analysis behind this mornings trades.

Much apprecaited.
  • #13,630
  • Edited 7:07am Oct 5, 2007 6:23am | Edited 7:07am
Quoting PipNick
Hi Wolf

Would you mind posting your analysis behind this mornings trades.

Much apprecaited.
Hi PipNick,

Yes I will, just poping out to get some lunch now if have the time before NFP otherwise it may have to be a bit later.

I will quickly say those trades were really instinctive 'seat of the pants' trades with a certain amount of luck! involved.
  • #13,631
  • Oct 5, 2007 6:59am Oct 5, 2007 6:59am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Islander,

Thanks I was lucky and caught the moves this morning, the dog stopped me giving it back lol, staying out until NFP now.

Seems a sensible rule I have the same problem, they are another double edged sword.

Where in the world are you, I would hazard a guess on an island and on or about GMT. Haven't seen the news this morning maybe that would have given me a clue.

I hope everyone is ok and its only property damage.
Yes, Iīm in the Balearic Islands, near Palma de Mallorca - currently GMT +2
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,632
  • Edited Oct 6, 2007 4:42am Oct 5, 2007 2:49pm | Edited Oct 6, 2007 4:42am
Quoting PipNick
Hi Wolf

Would you mind posting your analysis behind this mornings trades.

Much apprecaited.

Hi PipNick.

I have attached two charts one from my trading platform showing the actual trades and one showing trend lines which I hope will help you see the reasoning behind the trades. I normally get into trades looking for a minimum of +50 but scalp of trend lines for what ever I can get once in a trade.

But today being NFP I was just looking to scalp, the first trade was a reject from the upper T/L which normally could turn into a major trade. The second just catching the bounce from M2 L3 area and close at the pivot. The third just a gut feeling after price hesitated at the pivot area and this morning likely to range.

The last two arrows are potential trades that I nearly took but resisted the temptation (in hindsight, oh well).

The large arrow shows what would have been my usual type of entry on most days. Price showing signs of rolling over after arguably being overbought had come down throughout the asian session after forming a double top. At the London open price broke the lower trend line (a trade could have been taken here moving stop quickly to B/E) came back up tested and was rejected from the T/L the bottom of the F/L openg range and this was also the daily pivot area. I would normally have a very tight stop of 10 to 20 pips give a very good RR.

Of course even on a normal day price could easily have gone in the other direction in which case I would take a loss or cut my losses as soon as possible maybe manage to take +1 and then look to go long with a similar set up.

In most of my trade I usually bring my stop +1 as soon as I see +15 - +20 this sometimes means I get stopped out only to see the price move in my direction, but reduces my losses I'm sure.

Please remember this is just the way of trading I have come up with that is working for me at the moment and I am certainly no expert but I do hope it helps, it certainly helps me just explaining it.

Edit: I have tried to attach a chart saved using the print screen button but am unable to upload it I think the file size is to large. Can anyone help please. I am a bit of a tecno moron.

Edit: I think the file size is the problem bitmap image 2.16 MB compared to the MT4 chart GIF 29.9 KB?
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  • #13,633
  • Oct 5, 2007 4:30pm Oct 5, 2007 4:30pm
Have a great weekend everyone. I'll leave you with an update of some charts I posted here earlier in the week.
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  • #13,634
  • Oct 5, 2007 4:31pm Oct 5, 2007 4:31pm
And Now
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  • #13,635
  • Oct 5, 2007 5:18pm Oct 5, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting Wolf.
...Edit: I have tried to attach a chart saved using the print screen button but am unable to upload it I think the file size is to large. Can anyone help please. I am a bit of a tecno moron.
Hi Wolf, I've only recently started looking at trading GBP/JPY and found this thread most interesting and appreciate all that are sharing their thoughts and opinions here. It is most helpful, thanks.

I'm no tecno buff myself, but did a quick check and noted the the maximum attachment files size, whether images or documents is 976.6Kb and image width and heights are 1500 x 1500 pixels, which is plenty. I am thus not sure if image size be the problem here. Also, there could be a limit on the amount of attachments you may upload here at FF, which I imagine is the case.

It may be worth your while to check out something like
Inserted Code
http://imageshack.us/
to use instead. You will find it easy to use and check out the tools section. Try it in a dummy post and preview the results to test it. If you need further assistance with this in particular PM me and I'll try to help you with it.

Sage.
  • #13,636
  • Oct 5, 2007 11:02pm Oct 5, 2007 11:02pm
Hi guys first post here been a lurker for a while. Saw something on the guppy that I thought was interesting so I decided to post it. It seems to coincide with a few other reversal signals

It looks like a wolfe wave is finishing right now so this may very well be a good shorting opp next week.

To find out more about wolfe waves you can to his site here.

http://www.wolfewave.com


Shawn 1 to 3 and 2 to 4.
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  • #13,637
  • Oct 6, 2007 4:50am Oct 6, 2007 4:50am
Chart to go with post 13631.

Thanks for your help sagecss.
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  • #13,638
  • Edited 6:37am Oct 6, 2007 6:02am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting sswilli99
Hi guys first post here been a lurker for a while. Saw something on the guppy that I thought was interesting so I decided to post it. It seems to coincide with a few other reversal signals

It looks like a wolfe wave is finishing right now so this may very well be a good shorting opp next week.

To find out more about wolfe waves you can to his site here.

http://www.wolfewave.com


Shawn 1 to 3 and 2 to 4.
I must admit you have just given me an idea and an added tool to help me analyze and project Price Direction and route for the GBPJPY Pair.

Thank you for this heads up. I hope that you will be able to profit from this. I have charted my EW Count on this pair and used FIB Extention Tools and FIB Retracement Levels to Project this pairs Price Direction and Projection. Lately I have added Harmonic Patterns (Inspired by what Zoran has done very well. Now, I think I can even include Wolfe Waves into my Analysis.

And somehow, I think we have what may turn out to be a classic example of being able to Combine Elliott Wave Principles, Harmonic Patterns and Diagonal triangle / Wedge Theory in Projecting this Pairs Price Route.

Although, Time may already be included in the Diagonal Triangle / Wedge Theory for when a Price Projection will be attained, I still do not have the longer term Price Projection Tool.

Anyway, I hope many will benefit from this.

EG

PS. Throwover toward 239.19 ,ay not occur anymore as I think wave 5 in wave 3 is finished. So..... we are now probably on our way to seeing your Price target for this Wedge Theory.
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  • #13,639
  • Oct 6, 2007 8:49am Oct 6, 2007 8:49am
This is my longer-term thought if the support from 235 to 227 holds and the resistance from 239 to 244 fails. I can only see support breaking first if there is a panic of sorts coming up.

We will attempt to retest the high and possibly fail at 247.5 for a reversal (Indian-red pattern). This is more consistant with a major fall as a failure would give weight to a major south move. On the other hand, retesting the low first and failing could support a return to a major north move.
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  • #13,640
  • Edited 4:23pm Oct 7, 2007 3:58pm | Edited 4:23pm
These are some levels and possibilities that I see. 240 is the level I see that has to be broken for a move north.

Would be nice to go straight up to 260 from here but of course it could plummet . My bias is still long overall.

Time will tell.

Edit: Have some smaller tf charts to post but may do it tomorrow now, got up at 6am to watch F1 so to tired now. GN.
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