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haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • #21
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:58pm Oct 8, 2007 11:58pm
Quoting Bakuli
Hi Haniam

I have been following your trades and trying to understand how you arrive at it so that I could learn from your experience. I have made a few pips following your set-ups , a change from my losing ways.
I read all your posts with much interest and am appreciative of your wisdom. I hope to grow into a "big fish" one day but obviously need all the help I can get to get there. Thanks to the Forex Factory where there are experienced traders like you who are willing to help the less experienced!

Thank you.
Welcome to the thread Bakuli!
I am trying to make my thread as informative as possible so I help some fishes to grow if they want to. Understanding the Forex market is major before being able to make winning trades more than losing ones.

Keep reading and you will learn more and more how it works and how to do to stop being from the 90-95% stolen fishes.

Please take into consideration that the trades I am putting are only for information and fun, and should not be considered as incentive to trade.
You do your own analysis, compare them to others if you want to, then trade at your own risk. It's your money that is in play.

Happy trading and lot of pips.

Hani
  • #22
  • Oct 9, 2007 12:11am Oct 9, 2007 12:11am
Quoting haniam
Today is Health-Sports Day holiday in Japan, and Columbus Day holiday in the US. So we are on a two scenario market, very low volatility or very hi volatility. Important breaks can be seen in such conditions.

Last Friday, the 1.4030 level has been briefly tested and strongly rejected, and this made me some beautiful pips.
I expect this level to be tested again soon unless 1.4165 level is breached.
For today, my pivot level is @1.4108
It has been tested earlier with a bounce. I expect it to be breached later today.

I am selling EU @ current price 1.4120 targeting 1.4070 with 1.1.4165 as SL
Will sell again @ 1.4130 and 1.4140 targeting 1.4040 with same SL
May sell again if 1.4108 is breached, price go down then test it again and bounce.
Yesterday we had a 116 pips day, the EU going down most of the time without having to do a particular fight. Last Friday 1.4030 level has been tested as expected and today it has even been broken.

Due to the double Holidays, the EU had very little bounces on support levels, and exiting my trade @1.4085 to reenter it on a retracement @ 1.4105 order has not been executed. The 2 disgnated targets has been easily reached but I did not make all the pips I could!
  • #23
  • Oct 9, 2007 12:51am Oct 9, 2007 12:51am
We have already a new low today. We are still in the correction period that takes the EU in a downtrend inside the uptrend.

For a bigger illustration, the EU is in an uptrend as explained in post 7.
But we are in the inevitable correction the EU has to take before it may go higher.

In my opinion the correction is not finished yet and has way to go down to 1.3850 at least, but I expect 1.3790 to be tested, and even EU to go as low as 1.36.

If we see a lower close today than yesterday's, the USD recovery will accelerate in the coming days.

The fact that we are seeing new lows today encourage this view.
We have two scenarios for today:

1- A bounce on 1.4 level for a small retracement to test today pivot level @1.4068 where I will be selling.
2- A break of 1.4 level without any retracement. Less probable, as we have M.Trichet speaking @8:30 GMT and this might create some waves in the market.

We have the FOMC meeting @ 18:00 GMT, and we will see volatility at this time.
These are the only 2 important events in the coming 48 hours, so the EU may retrace up a little but it has the way to retrace down without bad news to stop it.

So for today, I may go long on a 1.4 level bounce targeting 1.4065 with 1.3975 as SL, and sell the EU @1.4068 level bounce targeting 1.4020 (or the low of the day +5 if we see a lower level before the bounce) with 1.4098 as SL.

Remember to always put your SL in the beginning of your trading ‘career’, or else you will very fast see yourself in a 200 pips losing trade that may blow your account. More on this in following posts.
  • #24
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:46am Oct 9, 2007 3:46am
EU has bounced on the 1.4115 level and is testing now 1.4050.
This level seems strong enough not to be breched easily.
Daily are bearish, while hourly are slightly bullish.
I will sell 1 lot at this level targetting today lows with 1.4075 as SL.
Will sell again as per previous plan if 1.4065 level is reached and prices bounces.
This is an agressive trade with a 1:1 ratio. I may stop it any time.
Not very recommended for beginners.
  • #25
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:02am Oct 9, 2007 4:02am
Quoting haniam
EU has bounced on the 1.4115 level and is testing now 1.4050.
This level seems strong enough not to be breched easily.
Daily are bearish, while hourly are slightly bullish.
I will sell 1 lot at this level targetting today lows with 1.4075 as SL.
Will sell again as per previous plan if 1.4065 level is reached and prices bounces.
This is an agressive trade with a 1:1 ratio. I may stop it any time.
Not very recommended for beginners.
Trade closed @ 1.4037 for +13 pips.
Will sell back between 1.4050 and 1.4075
  • #26
  • Oct 9, 2007 8:42am Oct 9, 2007 8:42am
Quote
I have been trading hoping to supplement my miserable income, instead it has taken away much of my hard earned savings

You want to supplement your miserable income? Well, definitely don't trade the Forex!

I repeat, don’t trade the Forex market in the purpose to supplement your miserable income! Else, you will certainly lose you hard earned savings, PERIOD.

Don’t misunderstand me: the Forex market is in my view a Gold Mine. There’s plenty of $$$ to get. But YOU CAN NOT make any $$$ from trading the Forex with your hard earned savings!

Why?

Well because they are hard earned, and you are so afraid to lose them, so YOU WILL LOSE THEM! Go and put them in your bank, you may get some percentage at least, or ask them about a guaranteed investment plan that would return you 4 to 10% a year, but DO NOT PUT THEM IN THE FOREX MARKET.

Ok. Now that I made my point clear, let me explain more.

Any amount invested in a speculation market should be considered already as lost before you start trading, else you will lose it! This is not a paradox. The more you pursuit the market, the more it will run from you.

So if you have 1000$ as hard earnings, ask yourself what amount of this money can you give away without being sorry about it? 1$? 10$? 100$?

With any of these amounts you will still be ale to trade the Forex. You will not make a supplement to your miserable life yet, but you will be on the good way.

There’s many brokers that will allow you to trade live with any amount, even 1$ or 0$! Send me an e-mail or PM me if you want some advice on this subject.

Remember, Forex winning is a question of patience, a waiting for good conditions you may enter the market and the good time to get out and take your winnings.

More on this in following posts.
  • #27
  • Oct 9, 2007 9:52am Oct 9, 2007 9:52am
Going short 1 lot on EU @1.4078 with SL @1.4115 targetting 1.4020
May close before since FOMC are in 3 hours
  • #28
  • Oct 9, 2007 10:17am Oct 9, 2007 10:17am
Selling another lot of EU @1.4100 SL 1.4135 targetting 1.4030
  • #29
  • Oct 10, 2007 1:17am Oct 10, 2007 1:17am
I already categorized most brokers in the Big Dogs category (Post 3) since they often take the inverse trade of yours. You lose, they make money with 90%-95% probability of winning.

Did you know that your broker can see all your transaction? Your Stop Losses and your take profit too!

Did you know that brokers give you a slightly different price than the market price when you deal with them thru a Dealing Desk (Ask your broker if they have a dealing desk, and if it is the case, be sure they are your first enemy!)

So they may manipulate the price by few pips up or down. I saw during hi volatility periods a spike of 20 or even more prices not seen with other brokers! This technique is called stop hunting. If they reach your stop, your transaction is closed and they have won, you have lost!

So with experience, I stopped using hard stops, meaning that if I have a Stop loss of 30 pips, I would not put it in my transaction so my broker can not stop me. I will use a mental stop where I would close the transaction at my own discretion if the level is reached.
  • #30
  • Oct 10, 2007 1:22am Oct 10, 2007 1:22am
Let's take yesterday example. I had one of my stops @1.4115. The prices reach this level and bounced on it. I was not stopped since the stops are mental. I may stop it now @1.4108 saving 7 pips. But since my analysis shows me that I may go short at this level with a 1.4140 as SL, so I will not stop my trade.

I will sell my third lot and put all three SL @1.4140 targeting first my pivot level @1.4178. I expect a bounce at this level, so I will close all my trades and sell again after the retracement targeting 1.4060, 1.4035 and 1.4020 the last position.
  • #31
  • Oct 10, 2007 3:54am Oct 10, 2007 3:54am
This is a major advice that may save your account: Don't get married to your trades!

You take a position, and the position reverse against you. Then you say you are convinced it will come back and give you lot of pips. But it still goes away. What should you do?

Well the market does not give any importance about your convictions, no matter how they are strong!

It will go the way it decides to go and for the time it wants to. So when the market goes against you by the number of pips you determined before, accept the fact that you are wrong in decision and close your position! DO NOT MOVE YOUR STOP LOSSES! The market may indeed come back to your entry level, but this is not important. Are you sure you can handle your position until it comes back without getting to a margin call? Wouldn't it be better to close your position then to reenter it at a better level, or use your freed margin for another trade?

You may always reenter your position on its way back, using Jacko Anti-Hedging strategy as mentioned in post 6, without having to put in danger your account.
  • #32
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:43am Oct 10, 2007 6:43am
Quoting haniam
Let's take yesterday example. I had one of my stops @1.4115. The prices reach this level and bounced on it. I was not stopped since the stops are mental. I may stop it now @1.4108 saving 7 pips. But since my analysis shows me that I may go short at this level with a 1.4140 as SL, so I will not stop my trade.

I will sell my third lot and put all three SL @1.4140 targeting first my pivot level @1.4178. I expect a bounce at this level, so I will close all my trades and sell again after the retracement targeting 1.4060, 1.4035 and 1.4020 the last position.
My stop levels has been reached but I decided not to close my trades yet since the levels are bouncing.

I still believe that this is a retracement of the new recovery of the USD, but since I should not get married with my trades I decided to close my three trades as soon as possible near my pivot level @1.4078 instead of targets.

I will reenter the market on a sell order at a better price or on a definit pivot break.
  • #33
  • Oct 10, 2007 9:16am Oct 10, 2007 9:16am
When there's a move in the market that is not conform with the technical analysis, go and search the fundamentals.

Like today, the EU is going up with no official news.

But I found the reason in this article in AVDFN:

"Elsewhere, the dollar remained on the backfoot as capital flows continued to move into higher yielding currencies and commodity-linked currencies.

The euro strengthened against the pound as a large deal in euros went through the market.

"There's a large order clearly going through the market in euro-sterling," said Stephen Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS, adding that it was possibly related to a banking sector M&A deal."

Happy trading to all
  • #34
  • Oct 11, 2007 12:23am Oct 11, 2007 12:23am
Basic money management (MM) rule: Preserve your capital.

Preserving the capital means that you should not risk all your capital for a trade. If you are right, you may double your account in one day, but if you are wrong, you will lose it even faster!

So it is preferable not to risk more than 1 to 2% of your capital per trade, up to 5% if you are very aggressive and you have really reasons to think you will win this trade and you already are in a series of winnings; never after a series of losses!

So if you have 1000$ in you account, where would you put your SL? Well it depends on the amount of your trade. If you take a trade of 1K per lot, you are risking 0.1$ per pips, so you can risk 2%x1000$=20$ divided by 0.1 cent = 200 pips! But if you take a trade of 10K for 1$ per pip, you should put your SL at 20 pips!

So do your homework before you put a trade, see where you need to put your SL and choose the trade amount adequately, and you will survive for the following trade.
  • #35
  • Oct 11, 2007 12:43am Oct 11, 2007 12:43am
Quoting haniam
My stop levels has been reached but I decided not to close my trades yet since the levels are bouncing.

I still believe that this is a retracement of the new recovery of the USD, but since I should not get married with my trades I decided to close my three trades as soon as possible near my pivot level @1.4078 instead of targets.

I will reenter the market on a sell order at a better price or on a definit pivot break.
The prices have bounced few hours ago on the support level 1.4125-1.4130

I still believe that this is a retracement of the new recovery of the USD, but since I should not get married with my trades I decided to get rid of my three positions @1.3130 with a loss of 52+30+15= -97 pips
  • #36
  • Oct 11, 2007 12:51am Oct 11, 2007 12:51am
I will reenter the market today on a sell order at a better price on a bounce of the 1.4170 area which is the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the last recovery, with 20 pips SL.

If it breaks I will wait for the 1.4215-1.4225 area. A break of this area would mean a new test of the highs.

If prices go down, I will enter on a break of my pivot level 1.4135.

I will be more and more bearish as prices tries to go up unless the 1.43 highs are broken, then I will turn bullish since this would mean the uptrend is resuming.

But in my opinion, this is a high improbable scenario for the moments. The USD needs to recover more and test the 1.3850 last breaks before it may break for new highs. So if the highs are going to be tested again, I will sell with a 5% risk and a 20 pips SL

But like Jacko would say, “I could be wrong”!
  • #37
  • Oct 11, 2007 2:32am Oct 11, 2007 2:32am
Sold 1 lot @1.4190 on bounce. SL 1.4235

Will sell another lot if this level is tested again with a new bounce, or wait 1.4220 level and sell if it bounces. SL 1.4235
  • #38
  • Oct 11, 2007 3:19am Oct 11, 2007 3:19am
Sold a second Lot @1.4195 targetting 1.4140 SL 1.4235
Will sell a third one around 1.4220 level with same SL
  • #39
  • Oct 11, 2007 4:07am Oct 11, 2007 4:07am

This is an analysis by Bogdan Parascanu I totally agree with:

"Bullish momentum is pretty strong and the pair looks set on reaching the 1.4300 YTD high and perhaps even go higher, bullish traders started talking about 1.4500 as a real target and if we manage to clear the 1.4300 resistance that might just happen in the next couple of weeks even sooner.
On the other side a failure to break above 1.4300 would start putting pressure on the pair and it might push it lower towards this weeks low just above 1.4000 as the first significant bearish target."

I believe that the BD are trying to show us the up way so traders go with the trend and buy more and more, and the 1.43 will be tested soon but it will fail to breach on this test. The breach is for a later attempt in few weeks.

The EU will go down quickly to under 1.40 taking all SL and making lot of losses in the mass traders after this test.

This is my bet and this is why I will be selling heavy on the 1.43 test with little risk of 30 pips and very large target of few hundred pips

"But I could be wrong!"
  • #40
  • Oct 11, 2007 12:24pm Oct 11, 2007 12:24pm
These are from the most important terms use in the financial market.
They are basic notion everybody should be aware of.

I may define straight forward that the resistance is the level where selling meets buying volume, and support is the level where buying meets selling volume. That's it.

A second important point to be aware off, when a resistance is broken, it becomes support, and when support is broken it become resistance.
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