haniam's anti Big Dogs trades | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Script/EA to balance losing trades agianst winning trades 23 replies

Daily Trades = Lazy Trades Journal 7 replies

Reading The Stupid Dogs' Mind 12 replies

Attachments: haniam's anti Big Dogs trades
Exit Attachments

haniam's anti Big Dogs trades

  • Poll

  • Do you consider winning in Forex trading as easy?
  •  
  •  
  •  
  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Mar 24, 2016 11:56am Sep 27, 2007 4:37am | Edited Mar 24, 2016 11:56am
I am starting this Journal at FF to regroup different posts about my trades and maybe help some traders to understand more the different strategies used on the markets by the Big Dogs to pull money out of their pockets.

Trades and analysis posted in this journal are for information only and should not be considered in any way as an incentive to trade.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 20PointsTradersShouldNeverForget.pdf   34 KB | 399 downloads | Uploaded Mar 24, 2016 11:55am
  • #2
  • Sep 27, 2007 4:50am Sep 27, 2007 4:50am
Well I do not think defining the Big Dogs as being obvious.

A Dog is known as being a great friend for the human. He is famous too for using his teeth to take a part of his prey.

Well the Big Dogs here are definitely not your best friend, but the best friend of the big capitals and they protect them by taking a part of their prey, you and me, the small traders!

So they are our main enemy in trading and we should definitely beware them...
  • #3
  • Edited 5:07am Sep 27, 2007 5:05am | Edited 5:07am
1: Your own broker!
Yes this is definitely true. Most brokers take the opposite trade that you do because more than 90% of the traders are known to loose money, so if you are one of these traders who are loosing money, guess who will put them in his pocket!

2: The banks and big finance institution.
They have big financial power and they can suffer thousands of pips without even feel any real threat.

3: Hedge funds.
Even if they may be smaller in size, they are playing a bigger and bigger role with time.

4: Big companies.
They are in need of foreign currencies and they need it at a cheap price!

These are some of the institution that fit in the Big Dog category and they have arms we don't even dream to know about them!

The least of these arms would be a huge quantity of informations we would probably never access on time to take an appropriate decision.
  • #4
  • Sep 27, 2007 5:38am Sep 27, 2007 5:38am
To illustrate the big dog strategy and my big dog trades, you may check

my post on fx-street on July 13, 07
http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showpo...&postcount=511

then the related follow up post on July 29, 07
http://www.fxstreet.com/forum/showpo...&postcount=562
  • #5
  • Sep 27, 2007 5:51am Sep 27, 2007 5:51am
Most trading known rule: Trade with the trend!

As you may see in the previous illustration post 4, even if you trade with the trend, you may loose your trades and still loose money from your account!

Why? Because Big Dogs (BD) needs to put money in their pockets! And since it is difficult to take the money from their fellows, they will come and take it from yours!

Let me even be more precise. They will not only come and take the money from your pockets, they will even ask you to come to them and have the kindness to give them your hard earned money!!!

How? Well I will give more illustration as i go into my journal to reach real time trades and examples on how we poor little traders are being manipulated and 'stolen'.

So as you see in the previous illustration, it is not much safer to just trade with the trend, the BD are still waiting for you to bite and take a peace of you!
  • #6
  • Sep 29, 2007 2:56am Sep 29, 2007 2:56am
An excellent thread showing the power to go with the trend is Jacko's who deals mainly with EUR/USD. Jacko uses mainly the trend with an Anti-Hedging strategy to reenter the market, and ha makes lot of pips and lot of money!

Going with the trend is definitely the best way to trade, but always take into consideration that the trend depends on which time frame you are using.

An uptrend in a daily chart could be inside a bigger downtrend and still have corrections to the down, a correction that would be a downtrend in a 4H time frame. So first it would be important to choose what time frame to use a main one, and this would depend on the style of your trading. You may check Phil Nell 4H strategy for an excellent 4H time frame (TF) system that uses MACD and 3 MAs. Phil's system follows trends inside 4H TF sometime with a 1H TF early entry but independently of the daily trend.
  • #7
  • Oct 1, 2007 4:10am Oct 1, 2007 4:10am
Determining how to trade with the trend can be done y a Top to Down analysis, starting from bigger time frames to lower ones.
If we take the EUR/USD, we can easily spot that:

1- The monthly TF shows a clear uptrend since beginning 2002, with an important retracement (38.2 Fibo) in November 2005..
2- The weekly TF shows a clear uptrend since November 2005 with clear retracements
3- Daily TF shows a clear uptrend since November 2005 with few months of ranging (Consolidation) between every breakout, but from beginning 2005 to November 2005, we can spot a clear downtrend for -2000 pips (the retracement we have seen in the monthly TF). We can see a strong straight uptrend since August 17, 2007.
4- Things become trickier in the H4 TF. The retracements we see in the Weekly appear as downtrends in H4.

This shows the importance of the Top to Down analysis. If you want to trade this currency, what would you do. Two scenarios:

1- You wait for a retracement to buy big in the dips, since we are in a clear uptrend.
2- You sell small in the highs then reverse in the dips.

This will lead us to the illustration of the BD strategy to steel from our balance.
  • #8
  • Oct 2, 2007 6:55am Oct 2, 2007 6:55am
What is happening the last weeks will give us a great live illustration on what BD are doing to steel from our balance.

They pushed the price enough to do a breakout of the 1.3850 level, so stop losses have been massively hit with close and reverse trades. Since then prices are going higher and higher with no looking to the rear.

We heard about the important psychological 1.4 level, it was taken off in an amazingly easy way, and stop losses were easy hit again.

Then all eyes were for the 1.41 level, taken as easy, same for 1.42.
This was enough to make most traders become bullish and go buying crazy, taking the EU to a record hi of around 1.43 last Friday.
All were talking about the 1.46 target, and suddenly today the EU is @1.4150 levels!

And guess who is paying for the pips! This morning I read from very important sources that the EU may retrace to 1.42 max an excellent resistance level to buy from! This excellent level was breached in seconds, without practically any bounce!

My analysis shows a good level to buy around 1.3850, on a firm bounce or after it is broken down then breached again on it is way back. And this level will sooner than any would expect be reached because of the big dog strategy play.

In resume:
Big dogs main play is to show you a target and to trade in the opposit way. While you sell they buy, and while you buy, they sell! They always win and you (95% of you) always in the final lose.

Morality:
1- Yes you should trade with the trend, but not at any price! Or you will still be losing any how you do.
2- There's nothing bad in trading against the major trend (Daily and monthly ones), but be careful because this is usually called a retracement, and in fact it is a smaller trend within the bigger one. So basically you will still be trading with the trend but on a smaller time frame like H4 or H1.
  • #9
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:38pm Oct 2, 2007 11:38pm
Taking EU as example, we all know is in an uptrend.
Analysis have prepared us to buy in the dips and are telling us that the retracement EU has taken is enough to prepare for a new hi over 1.43, so they recommend to buy to prepare for this important brake targeting 1.46.

Well I see another hi probability scenario that would risk me 30 pips for a big gain.

A momentarily recovery of EU to 1.4225-1.4230 level were I will be massively going short with 1.4255-1.4260 as Stop loss 1.4060 as first target (As mentioned before I am expecting a 1.3850 reach soon enough, and even a 1.3780). A brake of 1.4260 would momentarily postpone this scenario.
  • #10
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:52am Oct 3, 2007 12:52am
My pivot level for today is 1.4180. EU has struggled for around 2 hours without being able to break it yet.

So EU may go and test back the 1.4134 support level.
If this level does not hold, an accelerated down move would take to the 1.4060 area without the need to test the 1.4225 level as mentioned in the previous post.

An aggressive trade would be to sell the 1.4130 brake and recover @1.4060
  • #11
  • Oct 4, 2007 1:58am Oct 4, 2007 1:58am
Quoting haniam
My pivot level for today is 1.4180. EU has struggled for around 2 hours without being able to break it yet.

So EU may go and test back the 1.4134 support level.
If this level does not hold, an accelerated down move would take to the 1.4060 area without the need to test the 1.4225 level as mentioned in the previous post.

An aggressive trade would be to sell the 1.4130 break and recover @1.4060
The sell of yesterday 1.4130 break did not hit the take profit yet.
I lower the SL to break even (BE) @1.4130, which is my pivot point for today.
This pivot point is 30 point far from the current quoting and has not yet been challenged, protected by the 1.4110 resistance level.

THe position is now risk free, and if SL is hit I would still getting with a small profit due to yesterday swap.

I will take profit 1/3 of the position @1.4060, 1/3 @1.4030 and let the 1/3 running trailing stop by 50.
  • #12
  • Oct 5, 2007 12:48am Oct 5, 2007 12:48am
Quoting haniam
The sell of yesterday 1.4130 break did not hit the take profit yet.
I lower the SL to break even (BE) @1.4130, which is my pivot point for today.
This pivot point is 30 point far from the current quoting and has not yet been challenged, protected by the 1.4110 resistance level.

THe position is now risk free, and if SL is hit I would still getting with a small profit due to yesterday swap.

I will take profit 1/3 of the position @1.4060, 1/3 @1.4030 and let the 1/3 running trailing stop by 50.
Yesterday target was very close but not reached. The trade was stopped at BE.

Sold back @ 1.4135 with 1.4175 as SL and targetting 1.4070, 1.4035 and traling stop the last 1/3. Will sell gain if EU goes up around 1.4225
  • #13
  • Oct 5, 2007 3:44am Oct 5, 2007 3:44am
Quoting haniam
Yesterday target was very close but not reached. The trade was stopped at BE.

Sold back @ 1.4135 with 1.4175 as SL and targeting 1.4070, 1.4035 and trailing stop the last 1/3. Will sell gain if EU goes up around 1.4225
I doubt we will see important movements until 12:00 GMT when speculation about NFP would create some waves.

A break thru the levels may happen during the 20 minutes after NFP release and will determine if this trade will be a winner.

EU is testing my pivot point @1.4114 and if broken this level will provide a new protection layer for the trade.

I am lowering my SL to 1.4162, 20 pips over the hi of the day and 13 pips higher then yesterday. If touched, this may well ask for a bigger retracement up to 1.4225 where I will sell again.
  • #14
  • Edited Oct 6, 2007 1:38am Oct 5, 2007 2:35pm | Edited Oct 6, 2007 1:38am
Quoting haniam
I doubt we will see important movements until 12:00 GMT when speculation about NFP would create some waves.

A break thru the levels may happen during the 20 minutes after NFP release and will determine if this trade will be a winner.

EU is testing my pivot point @1.4114 and if broken this level will provide a new protection layer for the trade.

I am lowering my SL to 1.4162, 20 pips over the hi of the day and 13 pips higher then yesterday. If touched, this may well ask for a bigger retracement up to 1.4225 where I will sell again.
Live trade posted today has reached 2/3 full target:
Trade 1 target reached @1.4070 for +65 pips
Trade 2 target reached @1.4035 for +100 pips
Trade 3 target not reached. Stopped @1.4070 for +65 pips (was trailing stop)

So the result for this week is 65+100+65=230 pips or 230/3 = 77 pips if you did one trade 1 lot and took multiple profits.

See you next week for other live anti-Big Dogs trades examples.
  • #15
  • Oct 6, 2007 2:16am Oct 6, 2007 2:16am
I received the following message and I felt the need to comment it in the thread so the other readers would profit from the answers:

Quote
“I have been following your thread on the above subject with much interest. Needless to say that at the moment I am one of the 95% who lose on the forex all the time despite following the trend.

This is an example on how following the trend does not mean easy winning as advertised so intensively by you know who!

I will give you the perfect 'secret' weapons to win all your trades sometime in following posts. I need first to read suggestions from 5 different persons and then I will do it.

Quote
Your thread has given me more insight into the reason why most of us lose. I hope to learn more from you as you continue to post in your journal.
May I ask whether you are a professional trader and also whether in your opinion whether a 'small fish' like me can make a living out of trading the forex.

In my opinion you may make a living out of trading the Forex. But you need many factors to accomplish first before this is possible. I will come back to this subject in following posts.

Quote
By the way I am a health service worker by profession but have been trading hoping to supplement my miserable income, instead it has taken away much of my hard earned savings.
Many thanks for sharing your insight on the "Big Dogs" with all of us at the Forex Factory.”

This is exactly what you should not do if you want to win from the Forex. This is one of the things the BD relies on to let you lose so they take the money! More on this in following posts.
  • #16
  • Oct 7, 2007 11:41am Oct 7, 2007 11:41am
Well we know who may be the Big Dogs.
So who are the Small Fishes?

A fish is a creature that lives in the water, while Dogs lives on the ground. So basically they should not meet in a natural way, on a day to day basis.

But it seems that the Dogs are tired of taking parts from each others, it is too costly and one dog should lose for another to win.

So the Dogs decided to go and find somewhere else to eat, somewhere big, very like the ocean where food is plenty and still new enough so they may take as much as they want!

How to reach the ocean while they can not go under water? Well let the fish come to them and take the bait!

They needed to find a way to reach the fish, so they searched for something lot of fishes have, the Internet!

So they made applications that can easily be installed on the fish PC and they created all sort of facilities so all small fishes may come and get the bait.

Go and visit any broker web site and you will see the same kind of beautiful words telling you how easy getting into Forex is, they tell you how leverage is wonderful, how with just 50$ or less you may but thousands of dollars and in few minutes you may double your balance...

They will give you free demo accounts, some will contact you after a while telling you are doing great and that your winnings could be real $$$ if you open a live account in just few clicks!

One of the brokers added 50$ to my account for the 100$ I put! 50% more in my account, at the condition that I would make 20 trades before I can withdraw them! Well after some trades I was something like 160$. I got a pop up message offering me 100$ if I add 500$ to my account in the 24 hours. Unfortunately the balance in my credit card was under this amount so I wasn’t able to add them. By the time I credited the card, my balance was 180$. But I never had the offer again! Or any other kind of offers! This is to show you how brokers get mad at you when you are not the ideal fish that will feed them, because most of them they make their money not only from the spread but and mainly from trading against you. So if you win, they lose and they don’t like to lose!

And when you lose, because you will lose with a 95% probability, they will tell you that you where undercapitalized and that if you had more money in your account you would have made a win. So they encourage you to put more money, to trade more maybe by giving you free signals or pips rebates or bonuses…

In the final, you will try and you will lose, then try again and lose, then again and again… Until you fed up of all this or you are just broke. So after some time you will have some spare money again and if you become addicted to trading, you want to trade again because this time you will win, you will not make the same mistake, or you will make back all your losses… No mater the reason, lot will come back to try again and will lose again!

So a small fish has practically no chance to win against big dogs! Stop losing your hard earnings!

I do not mean that Big Dogs always win, remember the 5% that are not losing? You want to be part of the 5%? You may. I will explain more in future posts.
  • #17
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:39am Oct 8, 2007 1:39am
When you are small, all the bigger ones want a piece of you!
If you want a fair chance to win against the Forex market players, you have to get bigger!

Yes, this is the only way to stay alive in this market. You may get some lucky strikes in the beginning of your Forex journey, the luck of the beginner. But sure enough, with a 90-95% probability, you will lose it all and more…
So if you are still a small fish, my advice for you is: Don’t trade the financial markets!

Would you go to dive with no tools and no technique?
Would you go climbing to Mount Everest without appropriate equipment and training?
So why are you putting your hard earned savings in the Forex market just like this? Stop right now this kind of behavior and get well trained before risking any more of you money.

You have to feel you are a big fish. You have to know you are a big fish. Other persons should tell you and confirm that you are a big fish, and then, and only then, you will have the opportunity to make a living out of trading the Forex.

You need to have good equipment, know perfectly how to use them, practice again and again until it becomes a second nature in you, and then, and only then, you will have the opportunity to make a living out of trading the Forex.

When you become a big fish, other fishes will leave you alone, and Big Dogs will go and search for smaller fishes to bite, there's plenty of them, why bother with you?
  • #18
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:13am Oct 8, 2007 2:13am
Today is Health-Sports Day holiday in Japan, and Columbus Day holiday in the US. So we are on a two scenario market, very low volatility or very hi volatility. Important breaks can be seen in such conditions.

Last Friday, the 1.4030 level has been briefly tested and strongly rejected, and this made me some beautiful pips.
I expect this level to be tested again soon unless 1.4165 level is breached.
For today, my pivot level is @1.4108
It has been tested earlier with a bounce. I expect it to be breached later today.

I am selling EU @ current price 1.4120 targeting 1.4070 with 1.1.4165 as SL
Will sell again @ 1.4130 and 1.4140 targeting 1.4040 with same SL
May sell again if 1.4108 is breached, price go down then test it again and bounce.
  • #19
  • Oct 8, 2007 6:33am Oct 8, 2007 6:33am
Quoting haniam
Today is Health-Sports Day holiday in Japan, and Columbus Day holiday in the US. So we are on a two scenario market, very low volatility or very hi volatility. Important breaks can be seen in such conditions.

Last Friday, the 1.4030 level has been briefly tested and strongly rejected, and this made me some beautiful pips.
I expect this level to be tested again soon unless 1.4165 level is breached.
For today, my pivot level is @1.4108
It has been tested earlier with a bounce. I expect it to be breached later today.

I am selling EU @ current price 1.4120 targeting 1.4070 with 1.1.4165 as SL
Will sell again @ 1.4130 and 1.4140 targeting 1.4040 with same SL
May sell again if 1.4108 is breached, price go down then test it again and bounce.
Closing both position 1.4120 and 1.4108 @ 1.4185 for 35+23=58 pips.
Market is very slow. Will reenter short on a retracement.
  • #20
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:14am Oct 8, 2007 11:14am
Hi Haniam

I have been following your trades and trying to understand how you arrive at it so that I could learn from your experience. I have made a few pips following your set-ups , a change from my losing ways.
I read all your posts with much interest and am appreciative of your wisdom. I hope to grow into a "big fish" one day but obviously need all the help I can get to get there. Thanks to the Forex Factory where there are experienced traders like you who are willing to help the less experienced!

Thank you.
0 traders viewing now