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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #6,801
  • Edited 1:23pm Oct 5, 2007 12:51pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting the_wizard
It's just one for the new people to learn from


Oh, P.S. You know that EUR/CHF I kept advising not to take? It broke down through a PPZ and then tried to come up and formed a pin on the hourly (late last night) with the nose not far off it - so I took it short and promptly lost 11% of my account today...

Told you it was going up. LOL

Have a good weekend all!

Hi Wizard,
Thats a nightmare, I took the trade yesterday but then looked at some of the material on the PF and thought hang on a minute Wizard is right here.......and when I could get out at break even I did........you saved me a bunch of pips......thanks

You certainly know how to play big my friend...sorry it went against you......
good weekend to all.
Stay Lucky Mimas.
  • #6,802
  • Oct 7, 2007 1:24am Oct 7, 2007 1:24am
dear James,
In the earlier post in this thread, you mention that you invest in commodity trading such as sugar,cotton, oil etc. Could you let me know what brokerage you use for commodity trading, please?
thank you for your information
  • #6,803
  • Oct 7, 2007 7:48am Oct 7, 2007 7:48am
Quoting Forex Man
dear James,
In the earlier post in this thread, you mention that you invest in commodity trading such as sugar,cotton, oil etc. Could you let me know what brokerage you use for commodity trading, please?
thank you for your information
I believe Jim uses Lions Futures but there are a great deal of different brokerage firms.

I have heard others on here mention Windsor Direct as being a good brokerage for trading commodity futures.
  • #6,804
  • Oct 7, 2007 5:20pm Oct 7, 2007 5:20pm
Raz has informed me that she is doing very well with PA these days... therefore she agreed to purchase this beautiful Spanish Villa on the coast for me...

I am homeless you know. I trade from a computer at the public library... so any roof over my head I can find means so much !!!

Don't worry Raz... I'll pay you back... somehow, someday... I am LONG CAD... so the pips should start rolling in anytime now !!!
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  • #6,805
  • Oct 7, 2007 10:31pm Oct 7, 2007 10:31pm
EURJPY opened above a major, major pivot level of 165.36. Waiting to see what price will do here... price tested this level (almost) after the open, but that's expected to fill up the gap. Should be interesting to see what unfolds.
  • #6,806
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:20am Oct 8, 2007 1:20am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Raz has informed me that she is doing very well with PA these days... therefore she agreed to purchase this beautiful Spanish Villa on the coast for me...

I am homeless you know. I trade from a computer at the public library... so any roof over my head I can find means so much !!!

Don't worry Raz... I'll pay you back... somehow, someday... I am LONG CAD... so the pips should start rolling in anytime now !!!
Hes so funny that tiki....
Never say never.
  • #6,807
  • Oct 8, 2007 4:06am Oct 8, 2007 4:06am
If you learn price action and combine it with market rhythm you will put the odds of winning on any trade vastly in your favour.
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  • #6,808
  • Oct 8, 2007 4:43am Oct 8, 2007 4:43am
Quoting the_wizard
If you learn price action and combine it with market rhythm you will put the odds of winning on any trade vastly in your favour.
Hi Wiz,
Can you expand on that a little bit !
How do you normally measure the market rhythm, and can you explain what PA is occuring in the circled area ????
Thanks.
  • #6,809
  • Oct 8, 2007 5:42am Oct 8, 2007 5:42am
Quoting mimas
Hi Wiz,
Can you expand on that a little bit !
How do you normally measure the market rhythm, and can you explain what PA is occuring in the circled area ????
Thanks.
Hi Mimas,

In the circled area you have a failed pin bar at triple top (daily).

The reason I thought this would fail is due to my experiences with the natural rhythm of the market which is that trends will have natural retracements before continuation.

There are many ways to measure market rhythm. I like to use a combination of EMAs that I have found are extremely effective.

I will PM you.
  • #6,810
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:15am Oct 8, 2007 8:15am
I too was wondering about your comments on market rythum? I am new to posting here so I didn't quite know how to reply directly to you. I have a general idea of what you mean but the comments about using a certain EMA's system to see this better, perked my interest. I have been trading for about 2 years now, so I understand most of the basics and some advanced stuff. I agree that you can look at certain pairs and see the way they normally move up and down. Some pairs even sell off at certain times each month. I don't know if that is quite what you mean but I am interested in anything you would like to share further. Thanks in advance
  • #6,811
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:45am Oct 8, 2007 8:45am
Quoting Wall_Street
I too was wondering about your comments on market rythum? I am new to posting here so I didn't quite know how to reply directly to you.
Hi Wall_Street,

Thanks for your post. I will PM you now.

Wiz
  • #6,812
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:06am Oct 8, 2007 9:06am
[quote=the_wizard;1632646]In the circled area you have a failed pin bar at triple top (daily).

The reason I thought this would fail is due to my experiences with the natural rhythm of the market which is that trends will have natural retracements before continuation.

There are many ways to measure market rhythm. I like to use a combination of EMAs that I have found are extremely effective.
quote]

Hi Wiz,
I too am interested in market rythm - like many, I jump into trends too late or get out too early.

However, even I can see one reason for that Pin Bar failing - it had nowhere to go before hitting a support & resistance
level. Just look left before crossing the street (or taking any PA).

Ian
  • #6,813
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:18am Oct 8, 2007 9:18am
[quote=ianf0ster;1632919]
Quoting the_wizard
In the circled area you have a failed pin bar at triple top (daily).

The reason I thought this would fail is due to my experiences with the natural rhythm of the market which is that trends will have natural retracements before continuation.

There are many ways to measure market rhythm. I like to use a combination of EMAs that I have found are extremely effective.
quote]

Hi Wiz,
I too am interested in market rythm - like many, I jump into trends too late or get out too early.

However, even I can see one reason for that Pin Bar failing - it had nowhere to go before hitting a support & resistance
level. Just look left before crossing the street (or taking any PA).

Ian
Hi Ian, a very good point. I did not spot this at the time.
  • #6,814
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:23pm Oct 8, 2007 1:23pm
This is the kind of trade that I like to take.

If you look at the chart (attached) you will see that the daily oil chart has formed a head and shoulders and that price is putting pressure on the "neckline". (be aware this chart is after the event so it shows the price as being around 25 ticks lower than what I saw at the time)

So, we have a key support being tested and we have a day (Columbus day - US Holiday) in which we can expect reasonably low volume and thus the chance of an exaggerated move.

Let's have a look at the hourly...
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  • #6,815
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:30pm Oct 8, 2007 1:30pm
Wow, this almost looks like Dec2007 daily MiniGold....
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  • #6,816
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:41pm Oct 8, 2007 1:41pm
Support looks much more prominent on the hourly. (see chart)

Price shows an IB just above the support line. It is reasonable to assume that if price is going to break that then it will fully test the support and maybe trigger some stops and give a decent momentum move.

I took this short on the break with a mental stop above the IB at 46 ticks risk. I closed for 57 ticks profit as it was coming into the close and I thought that the market was overextended from its 10ema (there is a degree of elasticity with price and moving averages - the price cannot stray too far for an extended period of time without snapping back). Also I thought that if this happened it may coincide with a test of that PPZ from below.
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  • #6,817
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:44pm Oct 8, 2007 1:44pm
Turns out that price reversed giving perhaps another opportunity to get onboard a short tomorrow...
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  • #6,818
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:58pm Oct 8, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting baddison
Wow, this almost looks like Dec2007 daily MiniGold....
Siiiiiiiince you mention it....
I wrote over in Habeeb's journal about this "commodity" synchup and why I thought it was and what the reason is things move the way they do:

Quote
IMHO:
same thing with all commodities - the USD rose.

Think of it like this: let's say 1 unit of wheat or anything else has a set value.

Let's say 1 Real World Value - 1 RWV. This in turn is expressed by xxx amounts of USD to correspond to this RWV in terms of buying power / value.

If the currency used to denominate / determine this 1 RWV weakens in buying power / value, you in turn need more if this currency to still equal the same 1 RWV unit. So if the dollar weakens, you need more of it to still equal 1 RWV(you can "buy less" with it so you need more). If it strengthens the opposite is true.

That's why I believe USD bear markets often - not always - coincide with commodity bull markets.

One can find out whether the commodity or the USD is doing the moving by simply using a comparison / conversion back to EUR for example. If you calculate the amount of EUR needed to buy 1 RWV at the old price vs the amount of EUR needed to buy 1 RWV now, you can see whether the EUR amount changes or not. If it stays the same, then the change was only in EURUSD / USD itself. If it changes, then the underlying commodity value in turn gained or lost some "real" value.

At least that's my way of trying to force some logic unto it


And even if I am lightyears off the mark - the effect of this still seems to hold true in market prices, so, hey, whatever sounds nice and explains the world to me ;p
And if anyone wants to they can just check the USDX (or look at EURUSD parallel to the commods)...

I always hear it's really countries and the CAD and AUD and one thing ties to another and all that blah blah blah(like: Oil prices drive USDCAD / Gold and AUDUSD or similiar smoke and mirrors).

I say no, it's all about the USD for over 80% most of the time...obviously decorrelations do occur, but this is the most solid, stringent logic to me outlined above..

And what a surprise then that if it's really the USD that drives both USDCAD and Oil, that they should move in tandem. But saying one is the reason for the other is a bit silly to me. I could just as soon claim Europe is a superduper Gold rich Klondyke, because the EUR correlates so well with Gold often...yea, right...or for fun just put the 1h Oil and EURUSD chart next to each other...would mean Europe is really the next Saudi-Arabia then, yes?

Just my world perspective however.

Shows in how many things everything is tied to the USD however, if you ask me =)

P.S. Wiz you overlooked a 20 pip oil PB that ran 230 pips, you're getting sloppy!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #6,819
  • Oct 8, 2007 3:30pm Oct 8, 2007 3:30pm
Quoting the_wizard
Turns out that price reversed giving perhaps another opportunity to get onboard a short tomorrow...
Wizard,

Considering we had just dropped $2 (crude's ave ATR) and were nearing the end of the session, do you think taking a HS breakout so late in the day was a little optimistic if a little dangerous... in hindsight ofcourse.
Even though the trade was a +ve.
  • #6,820
  • Oct 8, 2007 4:40pm Oct 8, 2007 4:40pm
I hate to do this because I don't want to clutter this wonderful thread up with nonsense. I was wondering how you PM someone, or return a PM once you receive one? I try to PM people or reply to the PM's and I get and an error message pops up that says I don't have the rights to do this. The only thing I can think of is, do you have to have that other person on your buddy list before you can PM that person? If not then I don't know what else I have to do. I am pretty computer savvy so asking this question really makes me feel dumb. Thanks in advance for the help.
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