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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #981
  • Oct 2, 2007 11:26pm Oct 2, 2007 11:26pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Archer,

Definitely. If the Investment fund wants to sell the Euro at these high prices and buy them back at lower levels, then the long term trend is over.

Also if they sell the Euro, it increases the value of their $Trillion holdings. It is a "heads they win and tails they win" type situation for China.

I think the only thing that will moderate this is that they will not want to be immediately seen as getting a choker hold on the markets (especially the Euro) straight away.

On the other side, I am dubious that they would be a big buyer of the Euro since
1. It is very high already
2 For every one cent increase in the Euro, the $Trillion holding reduces by $8 BILLION in value.


So I am on alert for maybe the topping of the Euro. However, the Investment fund has only opened for business 24 hours ago. So I will be looking for evidence in the price of the Euro. Caution is now the name of the game.



However, I could be wwwwwrong !!!



.
This is just me thinking (or writing) Macro fundamentals out loud.

IF the above scenario happens you won't see any real evidence for a little while.

I keep an eye on the fundamentals.... but I trade off the charts.


.
  • #982
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:03am Oct 3, 2007 12:03am
Quoting jacko
Last friday was the biggest total position I have ever held.
We junked everything late Friday to close out flat for the weekend and celebrated all weekend.
Well done, the weekly highs were hit going right into the Friday close. You must've cleaned house on those trades.
  • #983
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:21am Oct 3, 2007 12:21am
Jacko

given the scenario you have laid out what plan of action would you lay out for yourself?

and more to the point from 1.34 to 1.43 somewhere around 1.38 or 1.39 should be around 50% and as of right now we are still in an uptrend will you consider trading just as you have for the past 18 months or does this revelation change the game and perhaps the trend somewhat?

I keep up with THE thread every day and I appreciate all of your posts and thanks in advance for your time.

spike71
  • #984
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:33am Oct 3, 2007 1:33am
Quoting jacko
Hi raczekfx,

Exactly.

They have control of the USD by means of their $Trillion of debt owed by the US government to China. The increasing US debt is the same as "buying" the USD.

However, the $200 Billion can be used to sell the Euro (and to a lesser degree, the GBP and other less important currencies). The investment fund is to get control of the Euro. (they already have de facto contol of the US dollar....). They will then buy it back later and make their profits....then do it all over again.

They now have the financial firepower to do it for as long as it wants...and use it to get concessions from all other countries, but primarily the US and European Community

They are going to manipulate the currency markets using this monsterous investment fund. If it needs more money, the China government will give it another $500 Billion and not even flinch!!!

The elephant is in the China shop !!! (pun intended).


.
Another Big Dog (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=48909) that may come into action!
A good article about China new fund can be read here (http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2007/9/30/business/20070930083953&sec=business)

We can notice that the fund is mainly concerned about commodities:

"Some officials and economists want the new fund to finance foreign expansion by Chinese companies or buy oil and other resources needed by the country's booming economy."
  • #985
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:39am Oct 3, 2007 1:39am
Dear Jacko,
This is my first post in this forum and I wanted to say THANK YOU for your great job in this thread. I have read & followed all of your posts from no.1 and it was a lot of learning when you see the BIG advises in work.

I have made a conclusion of what you have said & I have learned:

1. EUR/USD is very trendy : I now recognize how much this currency pair respects for the trend lines & major supports and resistances (Round numbers).
2. Trends are your best friends: The Major trend is your biggest friend and as the time frame decreases your friend gets weaker SO I myself have three friends:

a. The GOD FATHER: Weekly trend line & Channels - I go Very Strong on what he says
b. BIG Boy running the bar: Daily trend lines & Channels - I go Strong on his sayings
c. Every time changing minds: H4 trend lines & Channels - I take his advises only when a trend line has been broken & absolutely with caution. In other words I only take his advises when the Bigger friends has shown their weakness.

By knowing my friends I will put my money on them only on how much they are strong (Some times the GOD FATHER gets weak -I hope he is not here to see what I say about him). SO I trade both directions BUT with money management.
3. I will not forget my soldiers: My Soldiers will NOT be forgotten in any ways with A-H Strategy. I haven't used it yet BUT it definitely gives me & my soldiers hope & assurance.
4. Only trade near the TREND LINES: I love your advise to go strong in dips. I have used it for all of my friends & the results are very exciting.
5. Keep it simple: YES. Thats it. There is no need for Complex Indicators and ... It is only you, your PC & your bank account getting fueled by money clicking what should be clicked. Its that hard. Thanks to my friends.
6. Use your SIXTH SENSE feelings (Only for experienced ones): This will help you a lot when you are wrong in a position (you will exit with minimum loss), when you were right about a position BUT it is needed that your target to be changed (for best performance). The important part is that you could achieve good SIXTH SENSE feelings By ONLY EXPERIENCE & KNOWING OF THE CURRENCY PAIRS PERSONALITY.
7. By gaining Profit Scale your LOTs for Maximum profit: This is what I love to do


Happy trading all
My Best Regards to Jacko
Manage probability while following the TREND.
  • #986
  • Edited 2:05am Oct 3, 2007 1:53am | Edited 2:05am
Quoting spike71
Jacko

given the scenario you have laid out what plan of action would you lay out for yourself?

and more to the point from 1.34 to 1.43 somewhere around 1.38 or 1.39 should be around 50% and as of right now we are still in an uptrend will you consider trading just as you have for the past 18 months or does this revelation change the game and perhaps the trend somewhat?

I keep up with THE thread every day and I appreciate all of your posts and thanks in advance for your time.

spike71
Hi spike71,

The short answer is that, at the present time, I don't know where the market is going. We are letting our adrenalin rush from last week dissipate and try to get back to some semblance of calmness in ourselves. We were reckless and a little undisciplined last week. However, we were extremely lucky and I don't want to get a sense of hubris.

I am flat at the moment and looking for a good place lower down to go long. I would not be shorting this market. It is still a strong "long" euro market... until I see proof of it being otherwise. It may slide to 1.4000 but who knows. My next trade will be a "long Euro" (surprise, surprise!!) but I just dont know where our entry point is just yet.

Having said that, Newton (Newbietrader101) who we talk to every couple of days has gone short (because 1. he is live testing our new trading idea.....and 2. because he is a madman).


On the fundamental side, I believe that the China Investment fund is a serious cloud on the horizon....for every one cent of the Euro drop, the value of their current USD holdings increases by $8 Billion.
And that does not include any profit to the new investment fund from the trading process of selling the Euro from here to lower levels and then buying it back.
It also increases the strength of the USD which means more cheap exports to US from China. (This inturn increases their US dollar holdings even more !!!)
It is a VERY compelling argument that supports the argument that the new fund will attempt to drive the Euro down....the real issue is "when and over how long a period".



.
  • #987
  • Edited 5:59am Oct 3, 2007 2:06am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting tony_klaten
Very true, nice phrase.
Added to my signature, hope you don't mind.

I am pleased that you liked my phrase, honestly speaking its not mine, you better ask johnedoe, lol.
  • #988
  • Oct 3, 2007 2:10am Oct 3, 2007 2:10am
Quoting khanderoo
Dear Jacko,
This is my first post in this forum and I wanted to say THANK YOU for your great job in this thread. I have read & followed all of your posts from no.1 and it was a lot of learning when you see the BIG advises in work.

I have made a conclusion of what you have said & I have learned:


.............

Happy trading all
My Best Regards to Jacko

Hi khanderoo,

You have some very good friends outlined in your post.
Keep working with them and you will all be happy.


.
  • #989
  • Oct 3, 2007 5:59am Oct 3, 2007 5:59am
Quoting jacko
Hi tony_klaten,

Yes......but not just yet.

It ain't over till it's over!


But ....I could be wwwwwrong!!


.
Just like you said, master :

"I keep an eye on the fundamentals.... but I trade off the charts"

Go south....go south.....go south.........go to 1.39 then long again.
Daily and weekly TF confirmed.

Hope you're wrong this time......
  • #990
  • Oct 3, 2007 7:55am Oct 3, 2007 7:55am
Quoting jacko
This is just me thinking (or writing) Macro fundamentals out loud.

IF the above scenario happens you won't see any real evidence for a little while.

I keep an eye on the fundamentals.... but I trade off the charts.


.
Jacko and Mark,
I am just thinking(typing) out loud here but, might there be some indicator of Chinas' entry into the market. Increased volume in the Asian timeframe? Higher volitility in that timeframe? Something that might indicate they are scaling in with a plan. Maybe they jump in during periods of high volitility(NFP) hoping to be less obvious. It would be so much easier to protect ourselves, even profit, I we knew how or when. Maybe in the future, wars will be fought with money not troops. Perhaps the future is now.
Archer
  • #991
  • Oct 3, 2007 8:16am Oct 3, 2007 8:16am
Quoting Archer
Jacko and Mark,
I am just thinking(typing) out loud here but, might there be some indicator of Chinas' entry into the market. Increased volume in the Asian timeframe? Higher volitility in that timeframe? Something that might indicate they are scaling in with a plan. Maybe they jump in during periods of high volitility(NFP) hoping to be less obvious. It would be so much easier to protect ourselves, even profit, I we knew how or when. Maybe in the future, wars will be fought with money not troops. Perhaps the future is now.
Archer
lol I'm from China and I already feel alienated. :
Anyway, if you read Chinese and want a good coverage on the fund, here's a link
http://www1.fx168.com/fxnews/news_now_html.htm?0
It's a live commentary page. coverage on the fund pops up once in a while.
Take a report.
  • #992
  • Oct 3, 2007 8:39am Oct 3, 2007 8:39am
Quoting CateFul
lol I'm from China and I already feel alienated. :
Anyway, if you read Chinese and want a good coverage on the fund, here's a link
http://www1.fx168.com/fxnews/news_now_html.htm?0
It's a live commentary page. coverage on the fund pops up once in a while.
if only the great messiah, Deng Xiaoping is around to see this day............

but let's not forget the huge companies dominating the world markets and manufacturing in China are still Western ones ?
  • #993
  • Oct 3, 2007 9:26am Oct 3, 2007 9:26am
Quoting Archer
Jacko and Mark,
Maybe in the future, wars will be fought with money not troops. Perhaps the future is now.
Archer

Hi,

The future you are talking about is a thing of past and was already adopted by the US long time ago. According to Jako, US led invasion of Asian economies by the monetary institutions like IMF and the World Bank is the thing of the past. According to Ex-Prime Minister Mahatir, the Malaysian currency and economy was eroded by a bulldog (George Soros) ......... no offense intended to anyone.
  • #994
  • Oct 3, 2007 9:56am Oct 3, 2007 9:56am
Quoting findcount
if only the great messiah, Deng Xiaoping is around to see this day............

but let's not forget the huge companies dominating the world markets and manufacturing in China are still Western ones ?
This is bordering on trolling, please stop derailing the thread.
  • #995
  • Oct 3, 2007 11:09am Oct 3, 2007 11:09am
Quoting findcount
if only the great messiah, Deng Xiaoping is around to see this day............

but let's not forget the huge companies dominating the world markets and manufacturing in China are still Western ones ?
hmmmm deng xiaoping is a great leader
2nd statement, the most powerful organizations are owned by the state. not foreign companies. PetroChina, anyone? And whats that company bought IBM PC division a while ago? Lenovo?
Take a report.
  • #996
  • Oct 3, 2007 11:41am Oct 3, 2007 11:41am
Quoting jacko
Hi spike71,

...........

I am flat at the moment and looking for a good place lower down to go long. I would not be shorting this market. It is still a strong "long" euro market... until I see proof of it being otherwise. It may slide to 1.4000 but who knows. My next trade will be a "long Euro" (surprise, surprise!!) but I just dont know where our entry point is just yet.

Having said that, Newton (Newbietrader101) who we talk to every couple of days has gone short (because 1. he is live testing our new trading idea.....and 2. because he is a madman).

...............

.

Go Newton,

LOL ....The guy is a plunger !!

His first "live" test of our new trading idea is working very well !!! (It worked well on backtesting but it is always nice to have a "win" first time out).

.
  • #997
  • Oct 3, 2007 11:45am Oct 3, 2007 11:45am
Geeeez jacko...
yer killin us here the way you keep dangleing the carrot in front of us
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #998
  • Oct 3, 2007 11:54am Oct 3, 2007 11:54am
Quoting johnedoe
Geeeez jacko...
yer killin us here the way you keep dangleing the carrot in front of us
Hi johnedoe,

I am not trying to do that......

I suppose that I am just a little bit proud of myself that we have found a new idea that I think is a bit "special".
And it is nice to see it working in its first live trial (even if I am not getting any money out of it. Unless Newbie give us a percentage of his winnings.....Oh, look, there goes a pig flying past !!!!).

We are all feeling good at the moment. We had a monster of a week last week and we are still on a high. And Newt has just hit it again first trade this week.



.
  • #999
  • Edited 12:15pm Oct 3, 2007 12:00pm | Edited 12:15pm
Not taking it personal ...just havin a little fun with ya...
We do hope you will talk your friend into sharing though...
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #1,000
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:09pm Oct 3, 2007 12:09pm
Quoting johnedoe
Not taking it personal ...just havin a little fun with ya...
No offence taken. I wasn't offended.

I want to put it on the Forum but Mark is absolutely dead against it.

To me, the A-H is nothing special. But it works!!!
The new idea is similar. Nothing complex. But it worked on our backtests. And it is working on its first live trial. (Our little "baby"/idea is born.....And I am just a little "pumped" by that!!)


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