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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #7,161
  • Edited 1:51pm Oct 2, 2007 12:21pm | Edited 1:51pm
Hi,

today I traded the USDJYP according to the 1h rules. At least I think it was. What do you think?

The idea was that price could break out through the trendline you see in the four hour chart. At 15:00 CET it was very obvious to me that price will at least reach that level and I didn’t want to wait for the close of the four hour candle. So I entered at the close of the 14:00 candle @115.85 and put the SL under the bottom of this candle @115.68. When price would hit the trendline I planed to put my SL to BE.

OK, negative point was, that there were only about 15 pips left to that breakout level and which is maybe too less to give the trade enough room when I put it to BE.

As you can see it was an entry near to the high, the target wasn’t reached. Were there any avoidable mistakes?

Thanks and regards
janson

EDIT: Ok, I listened to the audios again, and it seemed that I have had to wait for a TC signal on 1-hour as entry.
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  • #7,162
  • Oct 2, 2007 12:21pm Oct 2, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting ira
Here is a written copy of daily wrapup for the 1st of October.

Phillip, if you don't mind my asking what is your pip goal for the week?
Due to my limited time to trade when the moves occur I aim for 40 a week. But I think 60 and more a week is a good goal if you can trade London and US sessions
Phillip
  • #7,163
  • Oct 2, 2007 12:37pm Oct 2, 2007 12:37pm
" This is a bit hush hush. It is strictly for my VIP
subscribers. No one else knows about this and no one outside
of my group will.

It's the start of something big, very big. Just watch the
video and you will understand.

Last thing before you go. Keep this to yourself for now. I
will let the rest of my subscribers know in a few weeks "

I get e-mails like this on a daily basis from the same group of people. I get new advertisements of new strategies on a regular basis from the same people. I dont know how they keep up with it. I get the impression that their is no strategy that works for a long time if I see how they come up with new ones.

Be carefull for these strategies that are formula based as they dont take the rhythm of the market in account.

Only my opinion.
  • #7,164
  • Oct 2, 2007 12:45pm Oct 2, 2007 12:45pm
What I would like you to see is the % profitable against % unprofitable trades and still this system is producing positive results. Look at the july EurUsd trades and see that it was a bad month.

With good money management and discipline you can have a 50/50 win lose situation and still make money.

This was over 1Year period

Phillip
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  • #7,165
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:39pm Oct 2, 2007 1:39pm
Quote
GbpUsd 24/09/2007

Short @ 12:00 candle at 2.0260
SL @ 2.0291
1st TP @ 2.0229 set SL to BE
2nd TP @ 2.0174 set SL to 2.0230 when price hits 2.0200


@Phillip

I would like to ask you something about your cable trade. How did you determined your SL there because it was not above the 4h candle? It seems that you put it over the high of the 9:00 hour candle in the 1 hour timeframe. Thanks in advance and best regards.

janson
  • #7,166
  • Oct 2, 2007 1:47pm Oct 2, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting janson
@Phillip

I would like to ask you something about your cable trade. How did you determined your SL there because it was not above the 4h candle? It seems that you put it over the high of the 9:00 hour candle in the 1 hour timeframe. Thanks in advance and best regards.

janson
I saw that 4H tail upwards as the damage was allready done so I set stoploss to above previous candle body more or less.
  • #7,167
  • Oct 2, 2007 2:11pm Oct 2, 2007 2:11pm
Hi Guys,

New to the thread. Can anyone tell me where to find the rules Phillip is talking about. In the beginning of the thread he talks about rules like "9-12" and rule when price breaks the 89SMA.

Thanks
Phil419
  • #7,168
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:35pm Oct 2, 2007 3:35pm
Hello peole . looking at euro chart. do u think that the rule was satisfied by the canlde pointed out. of testing the 21 and then the next candle opening below it. and from here price might not actually MOVE up to the 21. but the 21 might MOVE down to the price . and in retrospect it may look like that 21 was tested. are u confused yet. good because i am .: so does that mean we should arleady been short???. your response will be appreciated.
Thanks,
NAdia.
I put up a clean chart on purpose so as to concentrate on just the MA in relation to price.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #7,169
  • Oct 2, 2007 3:43pm Oct 2, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting wernbrenk
Hi Guys,

New to the thread. Can anyone tell me where to find the rules Phillip is talking about. In the beginning of the thread he talks about rules like "9-12" and rule when price breaks the 89SMA.

Thanks
Hi wernbrenk, -- You can go to this web site, http://www.fxtradeblog.com/method, where Palmer is in the process of consolidating certain information from the thread and, also, showing examples of current trades. There, you can find 13 mp3 lessons, some with accompanying charts, that Phillip gave on the method, as well as the original pdf file. Then, you really should try to find the time to start reading through the thread from the beginning. It will be worth the effort if you find that this method is for you. Hope this helps. Good luck!
  • #7,170
  • Edited 3:56pm Oct 2, 2007 3:45pm | Edited 3:56pm
here is a chart of swissy. look at he big bearish candle and notice how MACD did not turn red. this made me think about the euro current set up, that we might not have a round bottom, to have a round bottom we would need green bar/s. Does any one here get what i am getting at.!!!
Bottom line is that what would be good entry point for EURO .we might see a A TC signal down from here. i guess the one hour will be a good way to enter if start to get a long signal candle.
Do i sound like a NEWBIE here. ( Sorry phillip. sometimes i confuse my self, and miss the obvious , that is why posting on forum to knock some sense in me, )
Thanks,
Nadia.

Also if u compare the euro and swissy charts i posted. notice the difference between zero break signals. On euro it was not a signal to go short but on swissy because of price motion and rules, zero break was the signal to go long. this is not in relation to the current trade possibility but definitely a HALLELUJA moment for me.
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TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #7,171
  • Oct 2, 2007 4:32pm Oct 2, 2007 4:32pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Looks like EURUSD retraced up to the 21 and closed back at support w/RB forming. Is anyone else waiting for TC signal from MACD for move lower?
Watching 1 hour for sign the RB morphs into TC.

Any thoughts?
This post by Pips was from back in March, Nadia. I haven't a clue to your current dilemma, but I thought you might have fun with this.
  • #7,172
  • Oct 2, 2007 5:02pm Oct 2, 2007 5:02pm
Hi, Olddog! I remember this post, and she meant that the price was at the bottom TL and bounced at 200 SMA, and macd showed RB, which was a strong setup for move up, but the macd setup could be easily transformed into the TC, should the price go down. And we have similar situation now, except that the price is way too far from 200 and even 89, so the move down much more likely in current situation, than it was back then.
  • #7,173
  • Oct 2, 2007 5:24pm Oct 2, 2007 5:24pm
Quoting OldDog
This post by Pips was from back in March, Nadia. I haven't a clue to your current dilemma, but I thought you might have fun with this.
Thanks OLD DOG and Alex, i guess a slow day in forex can do wonders for my brain. LOL. I know my post can only make sense to me. but thanks for your response . Good Luck.
Nadia/
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #7,174
  • Oct 2, 2007 5:51pm Oct 2, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hello peole . looking at euro chart. do u think that the rule was satisfied by the canlde pointed out. of testing the 21 and then the next candle opening below it. and from here price might not actually MOVE up to the 21. but the 21 might MOVE down to the price . and in retrospect it may look like that 21 was tested. are u confused yet. good because i am .: so does that mean we should arleady been short???. your response will be appreciated.
Thanks,
NAdia.
I put up a clean chart on purpose so as to concentrate on just the MA in relation to price.

I was short, took 40ish on 1/2 then 110ish on the other 1/2. Looking to get long if it bottoms here for a quick trade.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #7,175
  • Oct 2, 2007 6:00pm Oct 2, 2007 6:00pm
My internet con just came back on and now I gotta run.

Richard7 is helping test the buy and sell scripts. Those should be posted to the site in the next few days.

A friend has a large amount of sushi grade tuna so.....back later.
  • #7,176
  • Oct 2, 2007 6:24pm Oct 2, 2007 6:24pm

Thanks Phillip Nel for sharing this system, and I think it will be helpful for me as a newbie...heh
  • #7,177
  • Oct 2, 2007 10:03pm Oct 2, 2007 10:03pm
was looking long but R:R is bad, 20ish points until 21MA, Pass.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #7,178
  • Oct 3, 2007 12:39am Oct 3, 2007 12:39am
Quoting BIL2205
here is a chart of swissy. look at he big bearish candle and notice how MACD did not turn red. this made me think about the euro current set up, that we might not have a round bottom, to have a round bottom we would need green bar/s. Does any one here get what i am getting at.!!!
Bottom line is that what would be good entry point for EURO .we might see a A TC signal down from here. i guess the one hour will be a good way to enter if start to get a long signal candle.
Do i sound like a NEWBIE here. ( Sorry phillip. sometimes i confuse my self, and miss the obvious , that is why posting on forum to knock some sense in me, )
Thanks,
Nadia.

Also if u compare the euro and swissy charts i posted. notice the difference between zero break signals. On euro it was not a signal to go short but on swissy because of price motion and rules, zero break was the signal to go long. this is not in relation to the current trade possibility but definitely a HALLELUJA moment for me.
Nadia: I understand exactly what you are getting at . I wanted to post E/U analysis yesterday, but my connection failed and my massage was not delivered to the thread. We know that by the rules the price after close below 21 should go and test it. But sometimes it goes to the 89 without testing 21. I was looking at the chart and tried to figure out what would be the signal like if the 21 would be tested only by the tail. You are absolutely right, in this case there will be no change on MACD, or maybe it would be a VT. So, I'm like you, decided to watch the 1hour, if I saw a good move to the 89 I would go short, but when I woke up today I saw a beautiful RB which formed on my chart.
Now we must be careful, as the trend can continue and the price may go up. I'm personally in favour of down move, so if there will be short signal in 30 min I'll go short.

Phillip: thank you for the answer.
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  • #7,179
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:19am Oct 3, 2007 1:19am
Thanks Ira, so i am not crazy!, i just woke up to see a round bottom too,price has tested the 21 ema and the curent candle is very crucial in determinig the direction of this pair, it is moving up and down below the 21, i still have 2 hours to candle close. lets see where the price takes us. I am favoring south but only time will tell.
NAdia.
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  • #7,180
  • Oct 3, 2007 1:37am Oct 3, 2007 1:37am
Quoting jren07
Finally back to thread after 3 days work. Thank your for your reply and encouragemnt. Actually I had hard time to manage and exit trade when the pair in trend. I always debate myself with following questios:
1) Should I enter trade with profit target? or should I use trailing stop after certain movement in price.
2) After collecting partial profit, how do I evaluate trade status? and when is time to exit trade? Should I stay in trade if price only retrace to 8 EMS of 4 hr chart, but exit trade if price retrace to 21 EMS of 4 hr chat?
3) Should I simply set trailing stop in fixed pips eg. 25 pips or in different price level according to price action in lower timeframe eg. 1 hr or 30 min to exit trade as time passed.

Everyone comments is welcome
Hi jren07, as for the trend trading, Phillip taught us to stay in the trend as long as possible. For this we must place our SL just below/above 21MA, and keep it moving along with the 21 MA. You can take partial profits and add to the position with TC patterns. The broke through 21MA is not neccessary the end of the trend, but it's a good sign to be alert. Then if the trend continues, we can get on board again.
I wish I had listened to Phillip's advise before, and from the 18th of September till the 1st of October I could be +260 pips. But, that's where the greed comes into play. Funny, at the end this greed punishes only us!
Ira.
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