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My Daily Fozzy Trades

  • #41
  • Dec 16, 2006 11:48pm Dec 16, 2006 11:48pm
I'll be taking this trade. As I'm in Japan, won't be getting in when the market opens (gotta sleep sometime) - will take whatever the price is when I wake up.

Reasons for taking the trade: High RSI at cross, price moving off important Vegas level, solar wind near crossing.

TP will be 100% ATR, which is above the tunnel.

Won't be taking two lots as trade is against the established trend (hasn't shown any big downward momentum since May) and stop will be under recent highs.

Will post entry, sp, tp later.


http://picnac.com/images/7256Untitled%202.jpg
  • #42
  • Dec 17, 2006 5:18am Dec 17, 2006 5:18am
Just my 2 cents but I won't be trading this one for several reasons.

1. The pair is on a definite bull run so it would be trading against the trend.

2. The previous 5 or so sell signals haven't produced much.

3. I am always a little cautious about entering trades on a Sunday.

4. I am expecting low volume this week due to Xmas.

5. The bar from Friday has already moved some 60+ pips northwards since making it's low.

Personally I would sit it out. If it moves down it probably won't get much past the tunnel. I would then be looking to go long which I think has more possibilities.

Of course I could be totally wrong. Forex has a way of sometimes doing the exact opposite of what you think
Attached Image
  • #43
  • Dec 17, 2006 9:11am Dec 17, 2006 9:11am
Thanks for your excellent points wilf - that's why I started this thread.

Your point about the price retracing (crazy news action) was in the back of my mind too.
  • #44
  • Dec 17, 2006 11:36am Dec 17, 2006 11:36am
This setup is worthy of a conservatively structured trade. Two lots; first t/p 153.80, second t/p 153.20. I'll wait until after the open later today to set my s/l.

Quoting the bhoy
I'll be taking this trade. As I'm in Japan, won't be getting in when the market opens (gotta sleep sometime) - will take whatever the price is when I wake up.


Reasons for taking the trade: High RSI at cross, price moving off important Vegas level, solar wind near crossing.

TP will be 100% ATR, which is above the tunnel.

Won't be taking two lots as trade is against the established trend (hasn't shown any big downward momentum since May) and stop will be under recent highs.

Will post entry, sp, tp later.


http://picnac.com/images/7256Untitled%202.jpg
  • #45
  • Dec 17, 2006 3:19pm Dec 17, 2006 3:19pm
I just want to say Hello,

Count me in and hope this forum will last for years!

Thanks,

Rene
  • #46
  • Dec 17, 2006 3:47pm Dec 17, 2006 3:47pm
will,
is that an hourly chart you have posted? i think most of us are commenting on the daily chart....



Quoting willf
Just my 2 cents but I won't be trading this one for several reasons.

1. The pair is on a definite bull run so it would be trading against the trend.

2. The previous 5 or so sell signals haven't produced much.

3. I am always a little cautious about entering trades on a Sunday.

4. I am expecting low volume this week due to Xmas.

5. The bar from Friday has already moved some 60+ pips northwards since making it's low.

Personally I would sit it out. If it moves down it probably won't get much past the tunnel. I would then be looking to go long which I think has more possibilities.

Of course I could be totally wrong. Forex has a way of sometimes doing the exact opposite of what you think
  • #47
  • Dec 17, 2006 4:36pm Dec 17, 2006 4:36pm
Quoting coolshades
will,
is that an hourly chart you have posted? i think most of us are commenting on the daily chart....
I was posting an hourly chart to show how much EURJPY had retraced since hitting it's low on Friday.
  • #48
  • Dec 17, 2006 8:35pm Dec 17, 2006 8:35pm
Quoting the bhoy
Is this what you want?

You can get the settings from the Vegas thread. Play around with it to see which model works best for the crosses.
I put the solar winds indicator up there too.
yeah man tat is wat i wan... thank buddy.
  • #49
  • Dec 17, 2006 8:58pm Dec 17, 2006 8:58pm
Trade 1

EUR/JPY
Price: 154.51
s/l: 80%ATR(20) = 155.21
Target: 100%ATR(20) = 153.63

Taking one lot for reasons said before. Will move to BE on this one if price moves +40pips.
  • #50
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:44pm Dec 18, 2006 7:44pm
Still in Trade 1 - went close to moving to BE but came up again.

Today shows cross in gbp/jpy but haven't taken a short in this pair since I don't know when and glad for it.

Note to self: Wake up in time! usd/cad is showing a cross but I'm pretty sure it wasn't at the open of the new candle. Can anyone confirm this on either timescale?
  • #51
  • Dec 18, 2006 7:48pm Dec 18, 2006 7:48pm
Quoting the bhoy
Still in Trade 1 - went close to moving to BE but came up again.

Today shows cross in gbp/jpy but haven't taken a short in this pair since I don't know when and glad for it.

Note to self: Wake up in time! usd/cad is showing a cross but I'm pretty sure it wasn't at the open of the new candle. Can anyone confirm this on either timescale?
That cross happened on todays candle, so the entry wouldn't happen until tomorrow (at 4pm CST my time for FXDD).

Jason
  • #52
  • Dec 18, 2006 8:04pm Dec 18, 2006 8:04pm
Quoting jlowder
That cross happened on todays candle, so the entry wouldn't happen until tomorrow (at 4pm CST my time for FXDD).

Jason
Thanks Jason.
___________________________________

p.s. The euro, gbp, aud are all hovering around the tunnel - will be watching carefully what happens today. However, only three more trading days till xmas - might be best to be conservative. I remember getting burned with low vol. last year.
  • #53
  • Dec 19, 2006 5:43pm Dec 19, 2006 5:43pm
There were a couple crosses on the daily today. Which ones did you take?
  • #54
  • Dec 19, 2006 6:51pm Dec 19, 2006 6:51pm
how do I see the charts you guys are posting?

renshi
  • #55
  • Dec 19, 2006 7:14pm Dec 19, 2006 7:14pm
Sorry, bit rough and ready today - no time for charts,

Trade one result: -70pips

Trade two taken
NZD/USD@ 0.6967
2 lots as good set up (with trend, away from tunnel)
First lot t/p: 0.7028
both lots s/l: 0.6918

Trade three taken
AUD/USD@ 0.7839
2 lots as good set up (with trend, bounce from tunnel, solar wind near cross)
First lot t/p: 0.7889
both lots s/l: 0.7770 (below dble low of 2 days ago)

Trade four taken
GBP/JPY@ 232.52
2 lots as good set up (with v. strong trend, away from tunnel)
First lot t/p: 234.11
both lots s/l: 230.25

Other crosses on eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/jpy, usd/cad, usd/chf I didn't take as we're so near the holiday so trades might get whipped around too much. They look like good trades though and are already in the money.

Will update tmrw. Bit hectic atm - packing for home. Will be closing all trades at end of Friday if any are open.

Cheers
Michael
  • #56
  • Dec 20, 2006 4:53pm Dec 20, 2006 4:53pm
so did you ignore the gbpjpy, eurjpy and audjpy shorts?



Quoting the bhoy
Sorry, bit rough and ready today - no time for charts,

Trade one result: -70pips

Trade two taken
NZD/USD@ 0.6967
2 lots as good set up (with trend, away from tunnel)
First lot t/p: 0.7028
both lots s/l: 0.6918

Trade three taken
AUD/USD@ 0.7839
2 lots as good set up (with trend, bounce from tunnel, solar wind near cross)
First lot t/p: 0.7889
both lots s/l: 0.7770 (below dble low of 2 days ago)

Trade four taken
GBP/JPY@ 232.52
2 lots as good set up (with v. strong trend, away from tunnel)
First lot t/p: 234.11
both lots s/l: 230.25

Other crosses on eur/usd, gbp/usd, eur/jpy, usd/cad, usd/chf I didn't take as we're so near the holiday so trades might get whipped around too much. They look like good trades though and are already in the money.

Will update tmrw. Bit hectic atm - packing for home. Will be closing all trades at end of Friday if any are open.

Cheers
Michael
  • #57
  • Dec 20, 2006 7:59pm Dec 20, 2006 7:59pm
Please allow me to provide a very simple answer:

Go HERE and read only the first ten pages or so. Apply what is written, and you will have all you really need to trade the "fozzy" method AND see the charts that are being posted. Cheers!




Quoting renshi
how do I see the charts you guys are posting?

renshi
  • #58
  • Dec 20, 2006 8:05pm Dec 20, 2006 8:05pm
Thanks BB for leading us back to the truth!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #59
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:29pm Dec 20, 2006 10:29pm
Quoting coolshades
so did you ignore the gbpjpy, eurjpy and audjpy shorts?
Yep. I haven't traded short on the gpy/jpy for over 6 months. Went long on yesterday's signal. eur/jpy is closely correlated with geppy. Normally I would've taken it but don't want to be too exposed in the choppy pre-xmas sessions. aud/jpy is not a pair I watch.

Keeping my three trades from yesterday open, (ignored the cross back down on nzd/usd) not looking to add any positions because of the time of year. Will post Friday when I close all trades and will start afresh on Friday 5th when I come back from hot n sunny Scotland.

Cheers
Michael
  • #60
  • Dec 22, 2006 8:26am Dec 22, 2006 8:26am
closed all trades slightly in the money:

nzd/usd 2lots 23 pips = 46
aud/usd 2lots 10 pips = 20
gbp/jpy 2 lots 25 pips = 50

total +116 pips

running total for journal +46

hope you all have a great holiday - see you on Friday 5th.

Michael
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