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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #921
  • Sep 27, 2007 2:12pm Sep 27, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting Ecirbaf
Hi all, hi Jacko,

Jacko, I wonder one thing concerning your strategy.
I think I have well understood the AH pattern and your entry criteria.
I also think you have a great feeling of the eurusd trend. But...
My question is: when you have just entered a long position, how do you estimate you have caught a good entry point ? I can't believe you simply wait that the market tells you were wrong by putting you out on your 50 pips trailling stop. You trade on price action, so you must wait some kind of action from your entry point. Don't you ?

Regards,

Fabrice
why can't you believe it? 50 pips isn't a lot. Read page 1. entry point is not important. AH is far more important.
Take a report.
  • #922
  • Sep 27, 2007 2:33pm Sep 27, 2007 2:33pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting CateFul
why can't you believe it? 50 pips isn't a lot. Read page 1. entry point is not important. AH is far more important.

MM is most important followed by patience in my book. However, based on your theory and understanding of jacko's system you could have placed a buy at 1.4200 - nice round number and been stopped out almost immediatly.

a little understanding of candles and Trendlines would have helped get a better point of entry, Jacko's system is not about blind entry. it's about picking good points based on simple indicators. and using AH for the few times the market catches you out.

daily chart
hi and low trendline
50% fib

4H chart
hi and low Trendline
50% fib

please don't take this the wrong way, your understanding of AH is great it is only 50pips and i will soon get them back. but why lose them and then have to wait for another 50pips that may not come, sometimes they don't, when simply recognising that a 4H candle is high and may retrace to a better number 1.4150 for instance would give you the advantage.

In essence jacko's system is not just about AH, thats the just in case bit.

I'm sure Jacko will enlighten us further on this later. and i hope this has helped all that read it.
  • #923
  • Sep 27, 2007 6:49pm Sep 27, 2007 6:49pm
Quoting MPP
MM is most important followed by patience in my book. However, based on your theory and understanding of jacko's system you could have placed a buy at 1.4200 - nice round number and been stopped out almost immediatly.
.....
please don't take this the wrong way, your understanding of AH is great it is only 50pips and i will soon get them back. but why lose them and then have to wait for another 50pips that may not come, sometimes they don't, when simply recognising that a 4H candle is high and may retrace to a better number 1.4150 for instance would give you the advantage.
You miss interpreted me
1. I would not place an order at 1.4200. () - see 3
2. Price has not broken 1.4200 so if I had placed my order it would not be triggered and hit my stop loss. Even if that's the case it's OK, because the price will come back and pass 1.42.
3. I agree with you that EUR is long due for a retracement (will happen in two weeks, I believe, but I could be wwwwrong ). So I'm staying out of the market at this time. Instead, GBP/USD is going strong. Jacko, if you are still trading this pair, would you please comment on this? Thank you soo much.
4. This is from post 26.
Quoting Jacko
Originally Posted by libertao http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1425987#post1425987)
I was starting to dig into your post history, thanks for consolidating this!

Do you pay attention to the long term S/R lines? I.e. would today definately be a day you would not employ your strategy of buying the Euro?


(sorry for the bad quality, was difficult to fit in 3/04-present in 600x600)

libertao,

Wrong....I was happy to buy in at 1.3600. (I consider "round" numbers, most important)

The resistance is 1.3666, but I consider that the "long" trend is far from over.

I see no reason at the moment to believe that the bull market trend from January 2002 (that is over 5 years or 1800 days) is about to finish TODAY.
Well I guess what I was saying was: don't try to pick bottoms.
Take a report.
  • #924
  • Sep 27, 2007 8:10pm Sep 27, 2007 8:10pm
In the 1 HR charts .. it seems the rally after each retracements are getting shorter and shorter.
Good sign of exhaustion.

I cant' wait to buy at cheaper price!
  • #925
  • Sep 28, 2007 12:44am Sep 28, 2007 12:44am
I'm really having to control myself from buying at the moment.

I want to get into the game.. but i know that if i buy now at a high, and at a time when the weekly chart is in extreme oversold area then I'll be kicking myself while i'm sitting on an AH loss for maybe a month before i get my money back.. I am scared of buying at all time highs..

I guess the market will still be here in a couple of months even if i miss today's train..

At the moment i want to see a retrace back to 13900 before i buy.

However.. maybe i'll buy at 14000 as well.. because i don't think ill be able to control my greed if it gets down to there..

Am i being too cautious?

Fortune favours the brave fools who rush in before the horse has spilt the milk and bolted the stable door ..

  • #926
  • Sep 28, 2007 2:21am Sep 28, 2007 2:21am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Morning/afternoon/evening Cate

I was mearly using the 1.4200 as an example of why blind entries are not part of this process, as you pointed out it was not triggered.

my intention was to show that AH was not the most important part of jacko's stratagy but an equally important part of the whole process, if you read through his thread as i am sure you have you will note that the word impotant shows up a few times, in the example you picked out you should also note that 1.3600 was a round number and also a 50%fib, a perfect entry point.

I believe we are on the same page but just project our views differently, i felt i should try to expand your answer as many new traders simply read the first and last page and think they got the whole system sorted. in doing that they would now be buying into the market and expecting the AH to save there arse, even though they probably would not have even drawn a single trendline or looked for the fib.

If you are looking for other pairs to trade, i also trade the AUD/USD, it has the same trending pattern as the EU and Australia has a very strong economy due to it natural materials being in damand. the GBP/USD is to volatile for this system and has broken both it's upper and lower trendlines recently. it's not that the pair is not trending, it is and very strongly to, it's to do with the average daily range being currently 142 pips, it kills the SL and goes again before you even have a chance to AH it. I'm sure that if you have the MM and time you could adapt the system to suit, and i am sure other would be interested to see how they goes, but i don't think you will find Jacko on that page.

Regards

MPP

Quoting CateFul
You miss interpreted me
1. I would not place an order at 1.4200. () - see 3
2. Price has not broken 1.4200 so if I had placed my order it would not be triggered and hit my stop loss. Even if that's the case it's OK, because the price will come back and pass 1.42.
3. I agree with you that EUR is long due for a retracement (will happen in two weeks, I believe, but I could be wwwwrong ). So I'm staying out of the market at this time. Instead, GBP/USD is going strong. Jacko, if you are still trading this pair, would you please comment on this? Thank you soo much.
4. This is from post 26.


Well I guess what I was saying was: don't try to pick bottoms.
  • #927
  • Sep 28, 2007 4:49pm Sep 28, 2007 4:49pm
Quoting CateFul
4. This is from post 26.

Quoting libertao
I was starting to dig into your post history, thanks for consolidating this!

Do you pay attention to the long term S/R lines? I.e. would today definately be a day you would not employ your strategy of buying the Euro?
Well I guess what I was saying was: don't try to pick bottoms.
And yet....did you see the chart after I posted that?
(Red Arrow was date of post, yellow line the resistance point referred to)
Attached Image
  • #928
  • Sep 29, 2007 2:30am Sep 29, 2007 2:30am
Wow! What a wild move the end of the week = Great weekend!

Jako, it now seems that your forecast of 1.4500 is impending and not too far away, may be a matter of a week or two.

Wondering how much more the dollar will be pounded?
  • #929
  • Sep 29, 2007 4:54am Sep 29, 2007 4:54am
Quoting MPP
MM is most important followed by patience in my book. However, based on your theory and understanding of jacko's system you could have placed a buy at 1.4200 - nice round number and been stopped out almost immediatly.

a little understanding of candles and Trendlines would have helped get a better point of entry, Jacko's system is not about blind entry. it's about picking good points based on simple indicators. and using AH for the few times the market catches you out.

daily chart
hi and low trendline
50% fib

4H chart
hi and low Trendline
50% fib

please don't take this the wrong way, your understanding of AH is great it is only 50pips and i will soon get them back. but why lose them and then have to wait for another 50pips that may not come, sometimes they don't, when simply recognising that a 4H candle is high and may retrace to a better number 1.4150 for instance would give you the advantage.

In essence jacko's system is not just about AH, thats the just in case bit.

I'm sure Jacko will enlighten us further on this later. and i hope this has helped all that read it.
Hi!

Quote
daily chart
hi and low trendline
50% fib

4H chart
hi and low Trendline
50% fib

Starting, when?

Could you post a chart?

THX
  • #930
  • Edited 5:30pm Sep 29, 2007 1:09pm | Edited 5:30pm
Banks have set a target for EURUSD = 1.5000 in less than one year.

I think we can see 1.4500 by the end of this year.

This is history being made here. And Jacko is quite the prophet!!!
  • #931
  • Sep 29, 2007 2:28pm Sep 29, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting charlinks
Banks have set a target for EURUSD = 1.5000 in less than one year.
Hello Charlinks,

Could I be so bold as to ask you of your source?

Thanks,

Neil.
  • #932
  • Sep 29, 2007 5:31pm Sep 29, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting Neilg36
Hello Charlinks,

Could I be so bold as to ask you of your source?

Thanks,

Neil.

I read this somewhere few days ago it was within the text of a news press release consensus target moved to 1.50... I wish I remember the exact source.
  • #933
  • Sep 30, 2007 6:55am Sep 30, 2007 6:55am
Quoting charlinks
I read this somewhere few days ago it was within the text of a news press release consensus target moved to 1.50... I wish I remember the exact source.

i thought you've connections to the Rothschilds........:
  • #934
  • Sep 30, 2007 8:12am Sep 30, 2007 8:12am
Hi All,

While we are wating for the market to open here is an interesting vidio on money, banking and the Federal Reserve.

http://www.tv-links.co.uk/listings/9/5243

DAN
  • #935
  • Sep 30, 2007 9:46am Sep 30, 2007 9:46am
Quoting jacko
Hi FXholic,

This is my fundamental overview that colours my thinking about the long term USD market.

I definitely believe that the $USD is going to weaken over the next few months. As I have stated before, my long term target over the next 12 months is 1.4500.

................................

After the trashing of the Asian economies by the US led World Bank and IMF some ten years ago, the situation has totally turned around. China and Asia have truly awesome financial muscle which they have never flexed. However, they haven't forgotten all the enormous economic devastation that the US banks did to all the Asian economies


As I said in my initial posts (see post 8), I believe that there has been a seismic shift in the "strength" of the US dollar as the worlds primary currency.
This seismic shift moved the USD from 1.2000 to 1.3800.

I now believe the next step in this seismic shift will move the US dollar from its current figure of 1.3400 to 1.4500 within 12 months

Our foolish politicians have irresponsibly squandered the enormous wealth of the US on stupid follies (Can anyone put their hand on their hearts and say that the people of Iraq are better off today than before we went in chasing "mythical" weapons of mass destruction? We have totally destroyed a country for no "justifiable" reason and sent their people back to the stone age living standards. Congratulations, George W....the rest of the world salute you.)

Also, due to the Asian meltdown, the Iraq situation, and also now the Credit meltdown caused by dishonest US bankers, the US is fast losing the trust and "good faith" of the world's political elite and the worlds major business players.

When the sh*t hits the fan, don't expect the rest of the world to want to bail us out.

The USD is going to get into trouble sooner and worse than people think.


But....I could be wwwrong !!!


.
I posted this on 8/22/2007 when the market was at 1.3450.

It has now reached 1.4277 (which is more than 75% towards the target) in just more than one month.

I think that it may take far less time than 12 months to reach 1.4500.


It is sad, really sad to see a mighty force (USD) being humiliated in such a stupid way. This is evidenced by the international financial community selling an increasingly worthless dollar.

This has two possible endings:

1. The USD goes into a death spiral and China starts to dump its USD reserves and the Saudis break the peg to the USD, as is being reported in the rubbish press in Britain (BOTH of which are extremely unlikely in the near term)

OR

2. All the panic news stories come out in the press in the next couple of weeks until everyone realises that the world hasn't collapsed and there will be a correction. (However, confidence in the USD will be so significantly damaged that it will never regain its former position of strength. Therefore I still believe that the long term trend is for a weaker USD).

So....how do we trade this market?

We are here to trade and make money (as a friend of mine says).

I am still working all my trades on the basis that this will go to 1.4500 within the next twelve months.

So...wait for a retracement/dip...then go long...and go strong !!!

And the A-H strategy will keep you from getting financially damaged



I hope this helps some traders.

PS I could be TOTALLY wwwwrong !!!

.
  • #936
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:06am Sep 30, 2007 10:06am
Quoting jacko

.............

So....how do we trade this market?

We are here to trade and make money (as a friend of mine says).

I am still working all my trades on the basis that this will go to 1.4500 within the next twelve months.

So...wait for a retracement/dip...then go long...and go strong !!!

And the A-H strategy will keep you from getting financially damaged



I hope this helps some traders.

PS I could be TOTALLY wwwwrong !!!

.



Without a doubt, this "business" is the best business I have ever encountered.

This can be an incredibly easy way to earn an outrageous (bordering on obscene) amount of money in a very short period of time.

Please go back and read this:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1425723&postcount=2

I have earnt (proportionally) more money in this business in a shorter period of time and with minimal effort, than in ANY of my other (very substantial and profitable) businesses. PERIOD

If you treat this market as a "business", it is an extraordinary opportunity.



.
  • #937
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:33am Sep 30, 2007 10:33am
Quoting Archer
Back on March 29, 2006 you made what amounts to a prophetic call on the market. Those who have read all of your posts will know what I'm talking about. What, if anything, do you see in the future that may cause you to turn short. I can't see much. But, I'm not omnipotent and I also don't have 20+ years of experience watching the markets. What I see is the Fed lowering rates a bit more before year end to help salvage what is left of the housing market and stem some of the foreclosure that will surely be booked if they don't. Furthermore, I see the EU under some pressure to respond with lower rates to bolster exports. Those actions should have us banging around in some sort of narrowing but trending up (EUR/USD) range next year. But I really dont think there will be a reversal in the trend during the next say, 18 months. I don't really have the guts to make a call like you did 18 month ago. But I think I am on the tight track. Short the dollar till March 2009 or beyond? Get me inside the mind of Jacko!
Archer
Hi Archer,

I don't mean to try to "predict" any particular target. I try to let the market tell me when it is changing (or more correctly, when it has changed).

Back in early 2006, the market had shown me that it had changed from a "short" on the Euro......So I went long.

As at the present time I have no idea where the Euro will end this bull market rally. (However, I feel that it still has some time to go before it changes).

So...until I can see a clear and positive change to the weakness of the US Dollar.....I will continue to go "long" on the Euro.


.
  • #938
  • Sep 30, 2007 11:06am Sep 30, 2007 11:06am
Quoting Ecirbaf
Hi all, hi Jacko,

Jacko, I wonder one thing concerning your strategy.
I think I have well understood the AH pattern and your entry criteria.
I also think you have a great feeling of the eurusd trend. But...
My question is: when you have just entered a long position, how do you estimate you have caught a good entry point ? I can't believe you simply wait that the market tells you were wrong by putting you out on your 50 pips trailling stop. You trade on price action, so you must wait some kind of action from your entry point. Don't you ?

Regards,

Fabrice

Hi Fabrice,

1. 50 pips isn't a lot. (Thanks Cateful)

2. Entry point is not important. AH is far more important.

3. It is rare that I will pull the plug on trade on less than 50 pips (unless it heads straight down).

4. One or two of my trades that have gone to as close as one or two pips of my SL have turned into very profitable trades. (What does it matter if it goes to within one pip or 30 pips of your SL ?......if you haven't been stopped out, then you haven't been stopped out !!). The Law of Averages means that I will sometimes be also stopped out by one pip or 30 pips too. You just have to make a judgement call as to where you want to make your SL. For the Euro, I like 50 pips.

5. I personally like a fixed amount of pips for SL, otherwise your discretion becomes erratic....and before you know it you are trading with "emotional" stops (either too tight or too loose....or worse, NO stops !!! ..... Absolute trading suicide).

6. Finally, you must remember that the 50 pips is the MAXIMUM that I can lose in any one trade. Since it is a trailing Stop Loss, most time I will be stopped out with maybe only 5 or 10 pips loss because it is extremely rare that the market plunges straight down.

However, in light of the above, I am NOT a strictly "mechanical" trader....I do use my discretion and I do change my mind, BUT I make myself really justify to myself as to why I want to alter a planned trade.

I hope that helps you.


.
  • #939
  • Sep 30, 2007 11:17am Sep 30, 2007 11:17am
Quoting jacko
We decided that the rise was a bit over-emotional and we thought that it would retrace within 48 hours so we got out six hours after the announcement at 1.3968.

I think that the market may retrace back to the low 1.3900's and...maybe even sub 1.3900. However, it will be a short term thing.
jacko,

How have you been handling the post-1.40 runaway environment? There really hasn't been any dip/retrace for us value buyers to enter in. At what point did you get back in after having last exited at 1.3968?
  • #940
  • Sep 30, 2007 11:21am Sep 30, 2007 11:21am
Quoting jacko
Hi Mozzie,

Thanks for your interesting analysis above.

It is interesting that you raise the issue of risk. In the last two weeks I have been reading "Stock Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager and also a more recent (but similar) book called "Inside the House of Money" by Steven Drobny. Both of those books are excellent, with Steven Drobny's book being better for experienced traders.

As a result of reading those two books, I have had an interesting idea that I think will increase my returns by a further 25-30% for minimal risk. My ex-broker friend Mark is very excited about it....he is easily excitable !!...but he thinks that it is something special. I will be testing it out over the next couple of months and then will discuss it here, but I want to try to sort out the best way to do the new trades to maximise my returns but limit the risk to acceptable limits. If it works, I will share the method here.


.
This idea is turning out to be something quite interesting. It is an easy fit to my current trading strategy. And it appears that it will increase my returns by more than we originally thought, with no impact on my existing trading strategy. (It is a bolt-on method that can stand alone from existing trading method) However, I developed this in cooperation with a friend of mine and he is definitely not keen for me to share it.


.
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